The Complete Guide to UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor
The UFC touches down in New York for the first time Saturday with one of the best lineups in its long history at UFC 205.
Madison Square Garden will play host to three title fights, including the biggest draw in the history of the sport. In the main event, featherweight Conor McGregor takes on lightweight kingpin Eddie Alvarez in the first meeting of two current champions since Georges St-Pierre and BJ Penn met at UFC 94 in 2009.
This champion vs. champion matchup is a momentous occasion and one of the best pure matchups that can be made in the sport.
The rest of the card doesn't disappoint. Tyron Woodley defends his newly won welterweight crown against Stephen Thompson in a crackling co-main event, while rising star Joanna Jedrzejczyk puts her strawweight belt on the line against Karolina Kowalkiewicz in an all-Polish title matchup at 115 pounds.
Three more great fights round out the best main card in UFC history.
Former middleweight champion Chris Weidman returns to action for the first time since losing his belt, going against Cuban Olympian Yoel Romero and his seven-fight winning streak. Former women's bantamweight champion Miesha Tate draws Raquel Pennington in a strong main-card opener.
Even the preliminary card is full of talent. Former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar draws Jeremy Stephens in the Fox Sports 1 headliner, while a serious lightweight fight featuring Khabib Nurmagomedov and Michael Johnson deepens the offering.
Let's take a look at each individual matchup.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Women's Bantamweights
Liz Carmouche (10-5; 2-3 UFC) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (8-0; 1-0 UFC)
Rising prospect Chookagian draws former title challenger Carmouche to open the evening's festivities. Carmouche has split four fights since dropping her UFC debut to Ronda Rousey nearly four years ago, most recently taking a decision from Lauren Murphy in April 2015. Chookagian defeated the same Murphy in her debut this July.
Carmouche is a strong, imposing fighter whose game relies on her physicality. While she's a competent and powerful striker, she doesn't throw much volume and can lose rounds at range. She's best when she's chaining shot and clinch takedowns together and throwing hard strikes from top position.
Chookagian is mostly a striker who does her best work sticking and moving at distance, using her smooth, technical footwork to keep her back off the fence. Mostly a boxer who throws the occasional low kick, she doesn't hit particularly hard but works at a great pace. Strong takedown defense keeps her standing long enough to use her striking skills.
Prediction: If Carmouche can't land takedowns, a tough prospect in the middle of the cage where her opponent shines, Chookagian is going to pepper her with a consistent jab-cross all night and win rounds on that basis. Chookagian wins a decision.
Lightweights
Thiago Alves (21-10; 13-7 UFC) vs. Jim Miller (27-8; 16-7, 1 N/C UFC)
Former welterweight top contender Alves makes his long-awaited drop to lightweight and faces the veteran Miller. Now a 15-year veteran of the sport, Alves has fought just three times since 2014 and hasn't been in the cage since the doctor stopped his May 2015 fight with Carlos Condit. After a brutal 1-4 stretch, Miller has won two in a row, finishing Takanori Gomi and then taking a split decision from Joe Lauzon.
Alves is a silky-smooth striker. A clean jab, brutal left hook and crushing low kicks form the basis of his game. Courtesy of crisp, technical footwork, he's comfortable both moving forward and on the counter. Near-bulletproof takedown defense ensures that he can impose his striking game.
Miller is an offensively focused fighter in every phase. The southpaw has drastically improved his striking over the years and prefers tight punching combinations and heavy low kicks. As an efficient takedown artist, Miller is happy whenever he has his hands on his opponent and is fine with giving up position to attack with a submission.
Prediction: It depends entirely on how Alves looks after more than 17 months on the shelf and his first cut to 155 pounds. While only 33, Alves has a ton of mileage on him, and those two things could quickly make it clear that he's past his peak. The outlines of the skill matchup, however, heavily favor Alves. He's the cleaner striker and should keep it standing. Without much confidence, the pick is Alves by decision.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Welterweights
Vicente Luque (10-5-1; 3-1 UFC) vs. Belal Muhammad (10-1; 1-1 UFC)
Brazil's Luque steps in on short notice against the American Muhammad, replacing Lyman Good after a flagged drug test. The Ultimate Fighter 21 veteran Luque has won three in a row since dropping his debut to Michael Graves, knocking out Hector Urbina in his most recent outing. Muhammad rebounded from a loss in his slobberknocker debut against Alan Jouban by finishing Augusto Montano.
Luque is a crisp, skilled striker. His punching combinations in the pocket are smooth and accurate, and he has a particular gift for landing on the counter, though he's not especially hard to hit. Defensive wrestling isn't his strong suit, but he makes up for it with an array of submissions from the front headlock, which makes it dangerous to shoot in on him.
Like Luque, Muhammad is a combination striker at heart. A consistent, punishing jab and probing kicks form the basis of his game. When he gets inside the pocket, he drops potent sequences of punches. Counters are a specialty. Well-timed takedowns offer a complement to that striking arsenal, though he mostly controls on the mat.
Prediction: This is a close matchup between two similar fighters, combination strikers who love to fight in the pocket but aren't hard to hit. Luque is the slightly more skilled striker and more dangerous submission artist, while Muhammad is the better wrestler. That last bit should be the difference here as Muhammad takes a decision.
Middleweights
Rafael Natal (21-7-1; 9-5-1 UFC) vs. Tim Boetsch (19-10; 10-9 UFC)
Veteran middleweights meet in a solid bout. The Brazilian Natal put together a four-fight winning streak between 2014 and 2016, including a decision win over Uriah Hall, but he saw that streak snapped in his last outing against Robert Whittaker. Maine's Boetsch had lost three in a row and four of his last five prior to knocking out the late Josh Samman in July.
Boetsch is a big, strong fighter. His game at range relies on a snapping front kick and a heavy right hand, but that's mostly window dressing on the way to the clinch, Boetsch's wheelhouse. He's a brutal inside fighter with great uppercuts, knees and takedowns, but he isn't a top defensive wrestler and mostly controls on the mat.
Natal isn't a high-level athlete, but he can do a bit of everything, and he approaches every phase of his game with intelligence and craft. On the feet, he throws a crafty jab and heavy low kicks from both stances. He's more relentless than explosive with his takedowns, but when he gets on top he's a strong control artist.
Prediction: This is a close fight, but Natal works at a quicker pace at distance and can stuff Boetsch's takedowns and clinch game. The Brazilian takes a decision.
Lightweights
Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0; 7-0 UFC) vs. Michael Johnson (17-10; 9-6 UFC)
Dagestan's Nurmagomedov meets established top lightweight Johnson in a crackling fight. Nurmagomedov returned from a two-year absence to dominate Darrell Horcher in April, while Johnson knocked out Dustin Poirier in devastating fashion in September. The winner will be on the cusp of a title shot in a stacked, deep division.
Nurmagomedov is, without exaggeration, one of the best wrestlers and grapplers in the sport. Once he gets his hands on his opponent, he chains together a dizzying variety of trips, throws, singles and doubles until his opponent ends up on the ground. Once there, Nurmagomedov is exhausting. He never lets his opponent back into open space, eating up entire rounds with a mixture of passes, strikes, submissions and mat returns.
With that said, Nurmagomedov's striking is still a work in progress, and we don't know how he'll react if stuck in that phase for an extended period.
Johnson is a southpaw striker with tremendous speed, power and craft. He likes to stick and move at range, putting subtle pressure on his opponent while landing punching combinations and hard kicks at a rapid pace. Exceptional takedown defense keeps him standing, and his movement and footwork make it hard to get a clean shot at his hips in the first place.
Prediction: On paper, Johnson is exactly the kind of opponent we would craft to give Nurmagomedov trouble: a quick, athletic striker with the takedown defense to keep the fight standing. The problem is Johnson's tendency to get inside his head when things start going poorly.
If Nurmagomedov gets him down, and it's almost certain he will at some point, Johnson could crumble under the weight of the Russian's pressure. Nurmagomedov wins a competitive, 29-28 decision.
Featherweights
Frankie Edgar (20-5-1; 14-5-1 UFC) vs. Jeremy Stephens (25-12; 12-11 UFC)
In the Fox Sports 1 main event, former lightweight champion and two-time featherweight title challenger Edgar returns to action against the veteran Stephens. Edgar came up short against Jose Aldo yet again in his second meeting with the longtime featherweight champ at UFC 200, which snapped a five-fight winning streak. Stephens took a decision from former bantamweight kingpin Renan Barao in May.
Edgar's approach revolves around the clever combination of striking and wrestling. His footwork is crisp and technical, and he moves constantly, which sets up angles for in-and-out striking combinations and takedowns that look the same to the opponent. On the ground, Edgar has become an increasingly dangerous fighter, with strong ground strikes and a more aggressive submission game.
Stephens is an athletic, quick puncher, though one with a substantial amount of craft. He doesn't throw a ton of volume at range, though he'll score with hard low kicks and the occasional jab, and he prefers to pick his spots to sit down on his punches. The occasional takedown adds some variety, and he's an above-average defensive wrestler, but that's about it.
Prediction: Unless Stephens catches Edgar, the former champ is going to run circles around him all night, confusing Stephens with his footwork, entries and variety. Edgar takes a 30-27 decision.
Miesha Tate vs. Raquel Pennington
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Women's Bantamweights
Miesha Tate (18-6; 5-3 UFC) vs. Raquel Pennington (8-5; 5-2 UFC)
Former bantamweight champ Tate opens the main card against the surging Pennington.
Tate strung together a five-fight winning streak after consecutive losses to Cat Zingano and Ronda Rousey that culminated in a come-from-behind submission victory over Holly Holm to win the belt, but she dropped her title to Amanda Nunes in July. Pennington has won three in a row, taking decisions from Elizabeth Phillips and Bethe Correia in her last two fights.
The winner will be in the complicated mix at the top of the 135-pound division, where Rousey's uncertain future after her bout with Nunes at UFC 207 and the dearth of contenders create instant opportunities for winning fighters.
Pennington is a well-rounded fighter. She's comfortable on the feet, where she works behind a crisp jab and a consistent stream of front and round kicks. When she gets into a rhythm, she works at an excellent pace and wears her opponent down with shots to the legs and body.
While she's good at range, Pennington's wheelhouse is the clinch. She's physically strong, rugged and technically sound in these exchanges, which shows in her slick entries, good posture and head positioning. Her knees and elbows are vicious and carry real power.
As an above-average defender of takedowns, Pennington also has a nice array of trips and chains of singles and doubles, especially against the fence. The cage is Pennington's best friend as a wrestler, and she uses it well.
Grappling is a strong suit for Pennington. She's solid on top but does her best work in scrambles, where she showcases a nice front headlock and move to the back.
Tate is a tough, durable and crafty fighter whose game revolves around exploiting whatever openings her opponent gives her. The former champion is one of the best in the sport at capitalizing on moments of weakness, whether it's a knockdown, a slip or a lapse in a grappling exchange. She's adaptable, too, and does a great job of analyzing her opponent over the course of the fight and shifting her approach.
Nobody is going to confuse Tate with a pro kickboxer, but she's competent at range, gauging the range with her jab and using crisp, technical footwork to either pressure her opponent or maintain the distance, depending on the demands of the matchup. Tate packs surprising power in her hands and is a solid counterpuncher.
Strikes are just window dressing for Tate's real goal: imposing her takedown game. She has great timing and excels at transitioning from strikes to takedowns and vice versa, which allows her to get in on her opponent's hips with a studied quickness that her lack of athleticism and raw speed deny her. Tate isn't a dynamic finisher of takedowns, but she has great variety and is utterly relentless with her chains.
Once she grabs ahold of her opponent, Tate's true skill shines through. She's aggressive in scrambles and has a knack for getting to the back, even standing. Her control on the ground is exceptional, and it's almost impossible to shake her off once she gets to a dominant position.
Betting Odds
Tate -185, Pennington +160
Prediction
Tate and Pennington are similar fighters: tough, crafty and not terribly athletic, with strong skills in every phase. The difference here should be Tate's opportunism. It sounds like a cliche, but she finds ways to win fights. Any mistake from Pennington is an opening for Tate to exploit. While Pennington could be perfect for 15 minutes, it's more likely she errs enough to allow Tate to win a decision.
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Chris Weidman vs. Yoel Romero
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Middleweights
Chris Weidman (13-1; 9-1 UFC) vs. Yoel Romero (11-1; 7-0 UFC)
Former middleweight champion Weidman returns to action against Cuban Olympic wrestler Romero, who is coming off a six-month suspension for a tainted supplement.
Weidman defended his 185-pound crown three times but lost the title to Luke Rockhold last December, and then he had to pull out of the rematch with an injury. Romero has won all seven of his fights since coming to the UFC, taking a split decision from Jacare Souza at UFC 194 and before that brutally finishing Lyoto Machida.
The winner will be well-placed for a title shot in a thin division.
Romero is a marvel of speed, power, explosiveness and athleticism, and his game in every phase is built around those physical gifts.
At range, the southpaw bounces around, pawing with his lead hand and flicking the occasional half-speed kick to measure the distance and gauge his opponent's responses. Then, when the mood strikes, Romero explodes forward into a lightning-fast left hand. In effect, the Cuban plays with rhythm, getting his opponent accustomed to one speed and range before breaking that rhythm with a full-speed strike.
This is a somewhat limited and idiosyncratic game, but he's accurate, powerful and difficult to figure out. It works for Romero.
The former Olympian is still an outstanding wrestler. He owns an array of high-amplitude takedowns, from his signature ankle pick to explosive doubles to step-outside throws and trips. All of them are forceful and technically executed. When he's fresh, Romero's takedown defense is bulletproof.
From top position or scrambling positions like the ride and the front headlock, Romero is an unspeakably vicious ground striker who can generate ridiculous force in the smallest of spaces. He rarely looks to control for long, though, and mostly tries to land three or four strikes before getting back to his feet.
The problem with Romero's game is how much energy all of this requires. He's the quintessential burst fighter, going long periods without doing a ton before suddenly exploding into a fight-ending sequence. This isn't sustainable for long periods, and if he can't get the finish, he tends to burn himself out.
Aggressive pressure is the hallmark of Weidman's game. He likes to work his way forward behind his jab and a steady diet of front and round kicks that force his opponent backward while cutting off escape angles. A long, leaping left hook provides a complement to that. While at first glance he appears flat-footed and plodding, the former champion is surprisingly fast and explosive when he commits to a burst of offense.
The problem with Weidman's approach to striking is how focused it is on forward movement and dictating the terms of engagement. If his opponent stands his ground to exchange and stops his pressure before it gets going, Weidman's game shows its lack of depth and variety. Rockhold, for example, repeatedly pinned Weidman at long distance and ate him up with kicks and blitzing combinations.
When he can force his opponent to the fence, the full variety of Weidman's game opens up. He moves smoothly from strikes into the clinch, where he unleashes hard elbows and knees or ducks under for a slick takedown chain against the cage. In open space, Weidman's wrestling game is less imposing, but he's still quick and varied, with a preference for single legs.
Until the Rockhold fight, Weidman had never conceded a takedown, and his defensive wrestling game is still strong by any standard.
On the mat, Weidman is a monster. He's a brutal ground striker from top position, both inside the guard and from dominant positions. His passes are excellent, and he has an outstanding series of chokes from the front headlock. The top ride is a real strength of his game, and he's happy to let his opponents scramble to open up opportunities to land strikes in transition.
Betting Odds
Weidman -165, Romero +145
Prediction
This is a tough fight to pick. Weidman's pressure and aggression should pose problems for Romero, who likes to be in open space or pressuring himself. The former champion's ability to push a pace and wear his opponent down with body work and in the clinch likewise edges things in his direction.
On the other hand, Romero is a serious challenge.
One of the biggest issues Rockhold presented for Weidman was his athleticism, and Romero is faster, more explosive and a harder hitter than Rockhold. His world-class wrestling skills are another problem, and so is his sheer unpredictability. The Cuban is a walking, talking, punching, double-legging wild card, and that's an issue for a meat-and-potatoes fighter such as Weidman.
With the caveat that Romero could land the fight-ending shot at any time, at any range and in any way, the pick is Weidman by back-and-forth decision.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz
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Strawweight Championship
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (12-0; 6-0 UFC) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-0; 3-0 UFC)
Strawweight queenpin Jedrzejczyk makes the fourth defense of her belt against fellow Pole Kowalkiewicz in what promises to be an action fight.
Since entering the UFC in 2014, Jedrzejczyk has been a buzz saw. She dominated Carla Esparza to win the belt and has been no less impressive in defenses against Jessica Penne, Valerie Letourneau and Claudia Gadelha. Kowalkiewicz has been less violent in her three UFC outings, winning decisions over Randa Markos, Heather Jo Clark and Rose Namajunas in an impressive upset.
While Jedrzejczyk is expected to win, this is a great matchup that should produce fireworks.
Kowalkiewicz is a tough, durable fighter, though not one with a ton of athletic gifts or power. She's mostly a striker who prefers an in-and-out game, circling constantly at range to find advantageous angles before darting in with a combination and then exiting on a different line.
She doesn't hit hard, in large part because her constant movement means she never plants her feet to throw, but she has an astounding volume of strikes and can take a good shot when her opponent lands a counter. Kowalkiewicz excels at drawing her opponent into a quick-paced fight and then steadily overwhelming her in the second and third round.
While she's not particularly large for the division at 5'3", Kowalkiewicz is a rugged clinch fighter. She has a great double-collar tie that she uses to land vicious knees, and she excels at finding room to land elbows in tight spaces. Her takedown defense is likewise excellent, and she can hit the occasional trip of her own. On top, she controls well and has some pop in her ground strikes.
Jedrzejczyk is one of the best strikers in MMA. The former kickboxer, who worked under the tutelage of the legendary Ernesto Hoost, can do it all on the feet.
Her jab is piercing and difficult to time, setting her preferred range and preventing her opponent from getting into rhythm. Her combinations are slick and technical, moving between head, body and legs in a single sequence. Footwork is the key to all of this, and she's crisp and precise with her movement, never going an inch further than she needs to.
As she has grown more comfortable in MMA, Jedrzejczyk has steadily expanded her arsenal. She was mostly a boxer in her first few outings, but once her takedown defense improved to its current near-bulletproof status, she was happy to engage in the clinch and started to throw kicks as well.
Pace and offensive output are the strengths of Jedrzejczyk's game. Because her footwork and distance management are so good, she never has to move far to land strikes, and the sheer fundamental soundness of her striking technique means there's no wasted energy. Add to that her tendency to work in combination and you have a fighter who lands strikes at one of the highest rates in the UFC.
In addition to her range striking, Jedrzejczyk is a vicious inside fighter with an arsenal of heavy knees and slashing elbows. Her 5'6" frame gives her tremendous leverage in the clinch, and she puts it to good use. Her takedown defense is some of the best in the sport and she's a competent defensive grappler in the event she gets put on the mat.
That's the extent of Jedrzejczyk's game, but it's more than enough to make her one of the most dangerous and difficult fighters in the sport.
Betting Odds
Jedrzejczyk -370, Kowalkiewicz +310
Prediction
Even leaving aside Jedrzejczyk's sheer skill as a striker, this is a brutal matchup for Kowalkiewicz. The challenger relies on weight of offensive output to win rounds; unfortunately, she's facing one of the quickest-paced fighters in the sport, and one who owns a huge edge in skill and raw power to boot.
As the fight wears on, those advantages will play out in increasingly more devastating ways. Jedrzejczyk finishes a bloody Kowalkiewicz with a flurry in the fourth round.
Tyron Woodley vs. Stephen Thompson
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Welterweight Championship
Tyron Woodley (16-3; 6-2 UFC) vs. Stephen Thompson (13-1; 8-1 UFC)
Newly crowned champion Woodley makes the first defense of his belt against karate master Thompson. Woodley knocked out Robbie Lawler in brutal fashion to win the title in July, which put him on a three-fight winning streak after victories over Dong Hyun Kim and Gastelum. Thompson has won seven in a row, including a knockout win over former champ Johny Hendricks and a decision over Rory MacDonald in June.
This is a great matchup between a fresh champion and a deserving challenger in a wide-open division.
Woodley is an incredible athlete with off-the-charts speed, strength and power. He has built his game around his physical gifts in crafty, intelligent ways.
There's no fat in Woodley's approach—no wasted energy or motion. He's efficient and knows exactly what he wants to do in the cage, which boils down to landing his powerful right hand, grinding his opponent against the fence and hitting explosive takedowns. For each of those options, Woodley has a series of setups.
The champion probes with his lead hand to gauge the distance and set a rhythm, though he rarely commits to a real jab. When the time is right, he explodes forward into a brutal right hand that can finish any opponent in the division with a single shot. His timing and ability to set a confusing rhythm make it surprisingly difficult to figure out when he'll throw the shot; even experienced strikers such as Lawler got caught.
The occasional kick, almost always off the right side, adds some variety for Woodley. Like his right hand, he carries serious power.
That's the extent of Woodley's game on the feet. He works slowly, throwing only a few strikes per minute, but he makes what he does throw count. This can make it hard for him to win rounds if he can't find a clean shot and gets stuck at range.
Woodley rarely finds himself entirely at long distance, though, and he excels at using the threat of his forward movement and right hand to punch his way into the clinch. While not a devastating inside fighter, his squat frame and sheer strength make him a grinder extraordinaire, using head position and an underhook to control his opponent against the fence. This eats up time and allows Woodley to wear the opponent down.
Despite his elite background in Division I wrestling, Woodley isn't a prolific takedown artist, relying more on his right hand and clinch game against most opponents. When necessary, however, he still showcases an explosive double-leg takedown and the kind of chains that speak to his past as a two-time All-American. It's almost impossible to take Woodley down.
On the ground, Woodley is a stifling control artist. He rarely looks to submit his opponent or even to pass, preferring to stick to the challenger like glue while landing a few short shots. As with his clinch game, this eats up time and wears the opponent down.
Thompson is a masterful striker with a deep background in karate and kickboxing. His game revolves around the control of distance and the multiple options with which that provides him.
Slick footwork and outstanding ring craft keeps opponents who try to pressure Thompson at bay, and he uses a series of front, side and round kicks to enforce his preferred long range. This leaves his opponents with two options: They can either stand around at long range and get chewed up with kicks or Thompson's blitzing combinations, or they can try to cover the distance with a telegraphed movement and eat a series of counters.
While the eye may be drawn to Thompson's eye-popping spinning kicks, most of his game consists of these meat-and-potatoes sequences of long kicks, subtle footwork and straight punches. He works at a quick-enough pace to win rounds, punishes his opponent with an increasing volume of shots to the legs and body and can fight deep into the championship rounds.
The rest of Thompson's game has evolved since his early days in the UFC. He's a surprisingly strong clinch fighter with a great understanding of leverage, and it's hard to hold him on the inside if he doesn't want to be there.
Thompson's defensive wrestling skills have drastically improved as well. His command of distance and angles makes it hard to get a clean shot at his hips in the first place, but even when his opponent can get inside, the striker's technical skills and instincts are outstanding. He can hit the occasional takedown of his own for good measure and packs some power in his ground strikes.
Betting Odds
Thompson -200, Woodley +170
Prediction
It's hard to imagine a worse matchup for Woodley in his first title defense. Thompson owns a substantial height advantage of three inches and has the game to stick Woodley on the outside, where the champion's stripped-down, limited approach doesn't give him many tools to deal with a striker as crafty and experienced as Thompson.
Pace and volume don't favor Woodley, either. If he gets stuck on the outside, there's no way he can keep up with the active Thompson, who will pepper him over and over with kicks and quick punches before hopping back out of harm's way.
Woodley's best chance for success involves mixing the big right hand with grinding in the clinch, but Thompson is almost never there to be hit and won't be easy to hold in the clinch even if Woodley can get his hands on him.
Thompson wears Woodley down and exploits his limited gas tank for a third-round knockout.
Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor
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Lightweight Championship
Eddie Alvarez (28-4; 3-1 UFC) vs. Conor McGregor (20-3; 8-1 UFC)
As good as the rest of this first UFC card at Madison Square Garden might be, the main event takes the cake. Conor McGregor steps in to challenge Eddie Alvarez for a second belt, the first time since 2009 one reigning champion has fought another.
McGregor has been up and down since his climactic knockout of Jose Aldo last December, losing his first fight with Nate Diaz on late notice before winning the second in a dramatic contender for fight of the year. Alvarez, the former Bellator champion, dropped his debut to Donald Cerrone in September 2014 but won two in a row to put himself in a title fight. The veteran capitalized by knocking out Rafael Dos Anjos to win the belt.
The stakes couldn't be higher, and the matchup is incredibly compelling. It's hard to see this fight being anything other than a barnburner.
McGregor is an aggressive southpaw puncher with enormous power in his left hand and a variety of ways of making his opponent feel that power.
The Irishman has shown surprising flexibility and evolution over the years. A straightforward, one-handed boxer at the beginning of his MMA career, he added a slick kicking arsenal to cut off his opponent's movement through the cage and better footwork in his first several UFC outings. He improved his combination punching prior to the two fights with Diaz and added a better jab and right hook.
The biggest area of improvement has been McGregor's counterpunching game. He has always had a knack for a back-stepping left-hand counter like the one he used to knock out Aldo. But especially in the second Diaz fight, McGregor showed off a diverse series of options that went far deeper than anything he had ever displayed before.
McGregor's approach, at a basic level, is that of a pressure fighter. He tries to back his opponent to the fence, stick him on the end of his reach and land the left hand early and often. When the opponent tries to fight off the fence, McGregor unloads with counters as he steps back to safety.
Defense isn't the best facet of McGregor's game. He's hittable in the pocket and he's hittable at long distance, but he's generally happy to take one to give one back.
Pace has historically been a strong suit for McGregor, and he likes to work fast, but the two fights with Diaz raise the question of whether he's truly a five-round fighter.
The rest of McGregor's game ranges between competent and excellent. He rarely looks to spend much time in the clinch but can hit an array of trips, throws and shot takedowns when the mood strikes. His takedown defense is above average but not outstanding, though it hasn't been tested by a high-level wrestler since the Chad Mendes fight.
There are concerns with McGregor's ground game. When he's in control, working from top position, he's an elegant pressure-passer with real pop in his strikes. When he's on the bottom, however, or is in a scramble, he either hangs on for dear life or seems to panic. All three of his career losses have come by submission.
Alvarez is a rugged, durable and well-rounded fighter with a wealth of experience at the highest levels of the sport. He's a good athlete with quick hands and real power behind his strikes.
The champion does his best work on the feet, where he can play both the aggressor and the stick-and-move outside fighter depending on the opponent in front of him. He's more comfortable cutting angles and moving freely in the center of the cage than pressuring, though, and that approach better suits his skill sets.
At his best, Alvarez circles and picks his spots to dart in and out of range behind a lead right, a combination or a powerful kick. He's even better when his opponent walks into the pocket and gives him something to work with. The timing and shot selection on Alvarez's counters is outstanding, and it's by far the best piece of his game.
Volume hasn't historically been a strength for Alvarez, but he has picked up the pace in his recent outings and is more willing to sit down on flurries of punches. He's not the cleanest defensive fighter, either, and tends to rely on angles and distance to avoid his opponent's shots. When he does get hit, he often gets hit hard.
Grinding in the clinch and cage wrestling offer a strong secondary option for Alvarez. He doesn't have the best timing on his takedowns and he isn't the most technical finisher, but he's strong and relentless when he can push his opponent against the fence.
As a grappler, Alvarez controls well on top and passes nicely. While he hasn't used them in years, he does have a submission game, especially the arm triangle.
Betting Odds
McGregor -155, Alvarez +135
Prediction
This is a fantastic matchup, and it mostly depends on how Alvarez wants to approach the challenge the Irishman presents. Will he try to pressure McGregor, shove him against the fence and grind him out in the clinch and with takedowns? Or will he let McGregor play the pressure fighter and stick and move in the hope of countering the hittable featherweight champion?
Either way, McGregor should have a slight edge, since Alvarez will have to walk through his lethal punching range, and more specifically his counters, to get into the clinch. If Alvarez pressures, he'll give McGregor more opportunities to lace him with counters. If McGregor pressures, he can stick Alvarez on the end of his shots and land at will.
Alvarez has a shot at grinding out victorious rounds if he can eat the inevitable barrage of left hands from McGregor, but it's more likely the Irishman lands the knockout shot. McGregor puts Alvarez down in the second round.
Odds courtesy of Odds Shark; current as of Wednesday.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. For the history enthusiasts out there, he also hosts The Fall of Rome Podcast on the end of the Roman Empire. He can be found on Twitter and on Facebook.
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