College Football Week 7 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Conference championships won't be decided in Week 7, but three contests with a pair of Associated Press Top 25 teams and several showdowns between division rivals will help shape a given league's race.
A total of 17 games include ranked teams, and Bleacher Report is picking each one against the spread. The list features nine of the best contests, while the rest of Week 7's matchups are highlighted on the final slide. Both groups are ordered by kickoff time.
Following an abysmal set of picks two weekends ago, Week 6 brought encouraging results. The 8-5 finish took the season record to 48-49 (plus three games ending in a push).
Please remember the predictions are for entertainment purposes only.
Duke vs. No. 7 Louisville
1 of 10
When: Friday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Louisville (-35.5)
Louisville had a weekend off following its disappointing loss to Clemson. Duke is in serious trouble Friday night.
As the line suggests, the final score shouldn't be close. Whether the Cardinals can assemble a five-touchdown margin of victory will depend on which version of the Blue Devils travels to Louisville.
Duke beat Notre Dame on the road and then lost to Virginia at home the next week. Consistency is not the Blue Devils' friend.
Lamar Jackson will put together another massive game and blowout victory, but David Cutcliffe's squad will stay within five touchdowns because of running backs Jela Duncan and Shaun Wilson and the ground game.
The Pick: Duke (+35.5)
North Carolina State vs. No. 3 Clemson
2 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (ABC)
The Line: Clemson (-17.5)
It took four weeks, but Deshaun Watson and Co. finally started to impress against Louisville. Clemson followed that up with a dominant win over Boston College, so the defending national runner-up looks dangerous again.
Although North Carolina State enters the ACC clash confident after a victory over Notre Dame during Hurricane Matthew, that game didn't show much about the Wolfpack. It wouldn't be fair to judge them for anything in that swamp.
This is a statement game for 4-1 N.C. State. Since the beginning of the 2015 season, though, the Wolfpack are 3-6 against the spread versus conference opponents.
Clemson will showcase an efficient rushing attack, while the defense will silence running back Matt Dayes and force Ryan Finley to throw his first interception of the season. The Tigers win by three touchdowns.
The Pick: Clemson (-17.5)
No. 20 West Virginia vs. Texas Tech
3 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (Fox Sports 1)
The Line: West Virginia (-1)
Ever so quietly, West Virginia is one of two remaining undefeated teams in the Big 12. That'll be tested on the road at Texas Tech.
So will the scoreboard.
Patrick Mahomes II guides a Red Raiders attack that ranks No. 2 nationally with 55.2 points per game. However, the defense has allowed 44 points or more three times, so whichever team can out-offense the other will take Saturday's matinee.
West Virginia will set a season high for points, but Texas Tech will improve to 8-1-1 ATS at home with Mahomes behind center.
The Pick: Texas Tech (+1)
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No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 9 Tennessee
4 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Alabama (-13)
Committing seven turnovers is a combination of poor ball security, bad decisions and horrible luck. Even one giveaway is a major problem against Alabama, though.
In the last 21 games, the Crimson Tide are 20-0 when forcing one turnover and 0-1 when finishing with zero. Tennessee has yet to play a mistake-free game in that regard this season.
Additionally, the Vols have faced a 17-plus-point deficit against each SEC opponent. The comebacks against Florida, Georgia and Texas A&M are admirable, but keeping up with Alabama is a different story.
Between slow starts and an injury report riddled with starters, Tennessee won't stay within two touchdowns.
The Pick: Alabama (-13)
No. 10 Nebraska vs. Indiana
5 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN2)
The Line: Nebraska (-4)
Similar to Tennessee, Nebraska is feeling the pain. Can quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. and running back Terrell Newby do everything for the Cornhuskers?
That might be necessary against Indiana, which edged Michigan State two weeks ago and hung around at Ohio State last Saturday. The Hoosiers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five Big Ten games.
Nebraska recently reached the Top 10, but that's simply because of attrition by programs that lost to other Top 10 schools. Mike Riley's Nebraska team will narrowly avoid the upset with a late field goal.
The Pick: Indiana (+4)
North Carolina vs. No. 16 Miami
6 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN2)
The Line: Miami (-6.5)
During the Al Golden era, even with the Coastal Division at stake, Miami typically collapsed after losing to Florida State. Saturday marks the Hurricanes' first attempt at a rebound under Mark Richt.
North Carolina is as tough of a test as Miami will encounter the rest of the season. The winner will earn a critical conference victory for potential tiebreak purposes.
According to Matt Porter of the Palm Beach Post, several key 'Canes—including quarterback Brad Kaaya, top receiver Stacy Coley and linebacker Shaq Quarterman—are banged up. Plus, safety Jamal Carter will miss the first half while serving a targeting penalty.
Even if Miami wins, North Carolina's explosive offense will rebound from its poor showing in terrible weather and keep it tight.
The Pick: North Carolina (+6.5)
No. 24 Western Michigan vs. Akron
7 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
The Line: Western Michigan (-10.5)
Welcome to the Top 25, Western Michigan. For the first time in program history, the Broncos are ranked.
P.J. Fleck's team is here to stay.
Led by potential All-American receiver Corey Davis, Western is 6-0 overall and 5-1 against the spread in 2016. Plus, the program is 7-2 ATS on the road since the beginning of 2015.
Akron has a formidable offense, but the Broncos will keep rolling, win by 14 and rise a little higher in the polls.
The Pick: Western Michigan (-10.5)
No. 12 Ole Miss vs. No. 22 Arkansas
8 of 10
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Ole Miss (-7.5)
Mistakes doomed Arkansas against Alabama, which forced five turnovers and scored two defensive touchdowns. Now, the Razorbacks will try to bounce back against Ole Miss.
Arkansas has struggled to defend each of the spread-based attacks from three Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. Chad Kelly and the Rebels should reach 40 points, but they're 1-3 against the spread as a road favorite with him behind center.
Ole Miss will take a two-touchdown edge before Arkansas closes the gap, though the comeback effort falls short.
The Pick: Arkansas (+7.5)
No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Wisconsin
9 of 10
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Ohio State (-10.5)
Wisconsin's lack of offense at Michigan—while not surprising—is concerning. The only thing that causes hesitation in predicting a blowout is that the Badgers haven't lost by more than eight points at Camp Randall Stadium since 2009.
While Ohio State has leaned on the running game throughout the season, it hasn't faced a defense of this caliber. Quarterback J.T. Barrett needs to be a difference-maker Saturday night.
But, again, the bigger issue is Wisconsin's offense. Freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook struggled against the Wolverines, and there's little reason to suggest he'll do better opposite the Buckeyes.
Punter Cameron Johnston's ability to flip the field will play a significantly underrated role in helping Ohio State score more often. Michigan missed three field goals against Wisconsin; otherwise, that game wouldn't have been close. Slowly but surely, the Buckeyes will pull away.
The Pick: Ohio State (-10.5)
Other Top 25 Games
10 of 10
Kansas State vs. No. 19 Oklahoma (-10.5)
When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
Oklahoma has struggled against the spread in 2016, posting a 1-4 record through five games. But the Sooners didn't have any problems in a 55-0 beatdown of Kansas State last season. Oklahoma committed four turnovers against Texas yet still won by only five. The Wildcats don't have anywhere near the same firepower, and the Sooners will ride Samaje Perine to a comfortable win.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-10.5)
Kansas vs. No. 11 Baylor (-34)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)
Baylor is 5-0 overall, which is what matters most to the team. Against the spread, however, the Bears are 1-4. And last weekend, Kansas nearly upset TCU. Considering Baylor's trend and Kansas' fresh confidence, the logical pick is taking the points—despite the nagging feeling that this contest will ignore trends.
The Pick: Kansas (+34)
Wake Forest vs. No. 14 Florida State (-21)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Even in a loss, the college football world should learn about Wake Forest this weekend. This improvement is for real—the Demon Deacons are 5-1—but there are different levels of "real." Are they ready to compete with FSU? Wake Forest managed a total of three points during its last three trips to Tallahassee. FSU's ability to dominate the trenches will result in a win just over three touchdowns.
The Pick: Florida State (-21)
No. 17 Virginia Tech (-19.5) vs. Syracuse
When: Saturday, 3:45 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
Virginia Tech showed up to North Carolina better prepared, and it showed in a big way. Head coach Justin Fuente has the Hokies playing an exciting brand of football again, but they must not look ahead to a Thursday night showdown with Miami on Oct. 20. While Syracuse's uptempo attack could give Virginia Tech some early problems, the Hokies' No. 2 pass defense will settle in and shut down the Orange.
The Pick: Virginia Tech (-19.5)
Missouri vs. No. 18 Florida (-13.5)
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Which Florida team will show up? It should help that quarterback Luke Del Rio is expected to play, according to Zach Abolverdi of SEC Country. Although the Gators are an inconsistent bunch, their defense matches up well against Missouri. Florida will force a couple of turnovers and drop the Tigers to 0-3 against the spread on the road this season.
The Pick: Florida (-13.5)
No. 21 Utah (-9) vs. Oregon State
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)
Oregon State is a wonderfully inconsistent team. The Beavers had no chance at Colorado and lost 47-6 and then turned around and earned a 47-44 victory over Cal, which clipped Utah two weeks ago. As long as the Utes control the trenches, they'll win. Oregon State doesn't pose a significant threat through the air and can't stop anyone on the ground, ranking 112th or worse nationally in both categories.
The Pick: Utah (-9)
Tulsa vs. No. 13 Houston (-20.5)
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
There's no shortage of offensive potential when Tulsa and Houston meet Saturday night. However, the Cougars tend to perform better as the underdog than as the team to beat. Houston is 4-5 against the spread as a home favorite under Tom Herman, while Tulsa is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of 2015.
The Pick: Tulsa (+20.5)
Colorado State vs. No. 15 Boise State (-31)
When: Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
It should get ugly at Albertsons Stadium. The question is whether Colorado State's offense can muster enough points to keep the score respectable. Boise State should pound the ball effectively on the Rams, who rank 87th in the country against the run. But that success will result in a slower-paced game. Boise State has no trouble dispatching Colorado State, though only by four scores.
The Pick: Colorado State (+31)
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All recruiting information via Scout. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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