The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 15
When the Baltimore Ravens decided to make it a one-score game against the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football, our fate was sealed. That push made us go .500 for the week, but with three weeks left in the season, we still have more than enough time to make up the distance that we've lost in the past few weeks.
We took the time to look up recent trends on both ends of lines on TeamRankings.com, while we used the Massey Rating and FiveThirtyEight to have a reference point where these lines should be from a power-ranking standpoint. Our point spreads come from OddsShark, a site which compiles up-to-date lines from not only Las Vegas books but online books.
Record ATS total: 87-99-5
Record ATS last week: 7-7-1
Los Angeles vs. Seattle
1 of 17
The line: Seattle -16
The result: Seattle 24, Los Angeles 3
You're going to be shocked, but the Los Angeles Rams, who average just 12 points per game at home this year, weren't able to rally around a special teams coach turned interim head coach on a short week. Firing Jeff Fisher was a step in the right direction, but the Rams are going to be bad for a while.
Seattle drew first blood and never let the Rams within seven points for the rest of the game. The Seahawks, who have been to the NFC championship game in two of the last three seasons, were too much for Los Angeles to handle in the end.
The Rams, along with the San Francisco 49ers and Cleveland Browns, join a group of teams with the mark on them, squads who should just be bet against on a week-to-week basis at this point.
Cover: Seattle
Miami vs. New York Jets
2 of 17
Best home line: New York Jets +3
Best away line: Miami -2
You may think that the Miami Dolphins should be road favorites here, but I would ask you to take a deeper look at their schedule before making assumptions. While we do think that Jay Ajayi is a talented back for the Dolphins, Miami's constantly shuffling offensive line is keeping him from being a 100-yard rushing threat on a weekly basis.
Since Miami's bye week in Week 8, these have been their results:
- 27-23 win vs. the 4-9 New York Jets
- 31-24 win at the 5-8 San Diego Chargers
- 14-10 win at the 4-10 Los Angeles Rams
- 31-24 win vs. the 1-12 San Francisco 49ers
- 38-6 loss at the 7-6 Baltimore Ravens
- 26-23 win vs. the 5-7-1 Arizona Cardinals
The Dolphins' most impressive game on their resume during that entire stretch might have been last week's win against a sub-.500 team at home by a field goal. Think about that for a second.
Now, with a backup quarterback in Matt Moore, they are three-point favorites, meaning that they would likely be nine-point favorites against the Jets, who won last week after a quarterback change from Ryan Fitzpatrick. For reference, the Dolphins have only won one game this year by double-digits.
This is just too many point for a road favorite here, and if a field goal pushes this game, it's worth it to think about Bryce Petty's Jets.
The pick: New York Jets +3
Detroit vs. New York Giants
3 of 17
Best home line: New York Giants -3.5
Best away line: Detroit +5
The New York Giants are five-point favorites at home against the Detroit Lions. The same Detroit Lions who have a top-five record in the NFL as it stands today?
The Giants should be favorites in this game, but closer to a three-point favorite than a six-point favorite, as those are key numbers. A three-point favorite would mean that these teams are on about an even field, while this line suggests a virtual pick'em if this game were in Detroit, which would be a slam drunk selection from a power-ranking standpoint.
As an away underdog this year, the Lions have beaten the spread by an average of 6.3 points per game, according to TeamRankings.com. Juxtaposed to the Giants' losing record against the spread as a home favorite, the side you need to align yourself with just becomes more clear.
The Giants, despite horrible Eli Manning performances in back-to-back weeks, are generating hype because they beat the Dallas Cowboys on a nationally televised game. The team with the quarterback advantage wins most of the time, though, and only two quarterbacks have thrown more passing touchdowns and fewer interceptions than Detroit's Matthew Stafford this year: New England's Tom Brady and Oakland's Derek Carr.
The pick: Detroit +5
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Jacksonville vs. Houston
4 of 17
Best home line: Houston -5
Best away line: Jacksonville +7
Over the last three NFL seasons, Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley has gone 2-20 on the road in 22 games. According to JJ Zachariason of Numbers Fire, New England head coach Bill Belichick can go winless for 41 straight seasons and still finish his career with a better win percentage than Bradley's standing 23 percent.
At home this year, the Houston Texans have the second-best record in the league with a 4-1-1 mark against the spread, per TeamRankings.com. Make this easy on yourself; bet against Bradley while we still have a chance.
The pick: Houston -5
Cleveland vs. Buffalo
5 of 17
Best home line: Buffalo -10
Best away line: Cleveland +10.5
The Cleveland Browns aren't just bad; they're historically bad. In 2008, the Detroit Lions became the first NFL team to go 0-16 in a single regular season.
Right now, the 0-13 Browns are well on their way to match the Lions' effort. The difference is this, though, according to TeamRankings.com, the 2008 Lions went 7-9 against the spread, while this year's Browns are just 2-11 against the spread.
Last year, the worst team in the league had 11 losses against the spread, and the Browns still have three weeks to go. Going back through TeamRankings.com's historical data, there is no team since at least 2003 to post just two wins against the spread for a whole season.
Don't trust this team. Period. Nine of their losses have come by double digits, including their last five in a row, with last week's loss coming against the then 4-7-1 Cincinnati Bengals, despite Cleveland coming out of a bye week.
The pick: Buffalo -10
Tennessee vs. Kansas City
6 of 17
Best home line: Kansas City -5
Best away line: Tennessee +5.5
The Kansas City Chiefs are 20-3 in their last 23 games. If a Bill Belichick-coached team was on a winning streak like that, all we would do is talk about how dominant that team is.
Hidden in the tough AFC West, though, alongside last year's Super Bowl champions the Denver Broncos and one of the flashiest teams in the league in the Oakland Raiders, Andy Reid's team is hidden. Last week, the Chiefs beat the Oakland Raiders, a 10-win team, by multiple scores.
Kansas City held Oakland quarterback Derek Carr to a 41 percent completion percentage and a 2.9 yards per attempt average. Marcus Mariota, the Tennessee Titans' quarterback, is coming off of a 30 percent completion percentage game with a 45.4 passer rating.
Not only are the Chiefs getting hot while the Titans are getting cold in the passing game, but Reid has extra time to prepare for this game, since he last coached on Thursday Night Football. Historically, that is huge, as Reid has a 16-2 record as a coach after a bye week.
Ride with the well-coach, consistent team here.
The pick: Kansas City -5
Philadelphia vs. Baltimore
7 of 17
Best home line: Baltimore -5.5
Best away line: Philadelphia +6
The Philadelphia Eagles have a winning record against the spread outside of their division, but they have a 0-4 record against the spread in the NFC West, per TeamRankings.com. Overall, against the spread, the Eagles have the eighth-best margin of victory in the NFL this year, despite posting a losing record against the spread overall.
They are an underrated team that performs poorly against common opponents who are no more than field-goal underdogs against a nonconference squad. This is the exact situation when you want to buy in on the Eagles.
In Week 10, the 0-13 Cleveland Browns were just 7.5-point underdogs in Baltimore. This week, Philadelphia is a 6-point underdog. Think about that for a second.
You would take the Eagles over the Browns on a 1.5-point line on a neutral field, correct? Then pull the trigger here.
The pick: Philadelphia +6
Green Bay vs. Chicago
8 of 17
Best home line: Chicago +7
Best away line: Green Bay -5.5
In the three games that Matt Barkley has started for the Chicago Bears, the team has a 3-0 record against the spread. Somehow, the Bears were able to keep it within one score of both the Tennessee Titans and Detroit Lions this year, while they blew out the San Francisco 49ers by a score of 26-6.
Transitive losses are always a tricky business to be in, but the Titans have beaten the Green Bay Packers this year. As a home team, Chicago is 3-0 against the spread as underdogs this year, per TeamRankings.com, while the Packers are one of the worst teams in the NFL against the spread on the road, in record, average margin of victory and average margin of victory against the spread.
Green Bay should be the favorites here, but this line is a bit too inflated. If this game were at Lambeau Field, this means that this line would be hovering around two touchdowns, which is a goal too high for this Packers team.
The pick: Chicago +7
Indianapolis vs. Minnesota
9 of 17
Best home line: Minnesota -4
Best away line: Indianapolis +4.5
Ask gamblers what they thought of the Minnesota Vikings coming into the season and what they think of the team now. If you do, you'll probably hear a story about how most thought you were going to be able to blindly bet on their point spreads in 2016 based on their 2015 record but how their offense has sputtered to the point where they have no value anymore.
That's about half right. They did have a 14-3 record against the spread last season, per TeamRankings.com, and they are just 8-5 this season, after starting the season 5-0 and winning three of their last four, but their home-away splits are still easy money.
At home last year, the Vikings were 7-2, the second-best mark in the NFL. At home this year, the Vikings are 5-1, the best mark in the NFL.
This line says that Minnesota is one point better than the Indianapolis Colts on a neutral field. According to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, the Colts have only played one defense better than Minnesota's this year: a two-touchdown loss to the Denver Broncos.
In total, against top-12 defenses, the Colts are 0-3 straight up, with a combined outscoring of 91-41. Indianapolis losses these games by double digits.
The pick: Minnesota -4
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati
10 of 17
Best home line: Cincinnati +3.5
Best away line: Pittsburgh -3
This just doesn't make much sense from a number perspective. Sure, Pittsburgh had a great game offensively last week, but this team hasn't been able to catch on fire for a string of weeks since very early on in the season.
The Cincinnati Bengals haven't been home underdogs this year, which might be a telling sign in itself, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-3 against the spread as road favorites this year, per TeamRankings.com. With that being said, the Steelers are averaging a loss by 3.1 points against the spread in those situations, which is impressive as they're the only team with a winning record against the spread in the negatives there.
Neither the Massey Rating nor FiveThirtyEight believes that this game should be at the key number of three. Cincinnati has received some of the benefit of the doubt this season in their lines, but against a very public team coming off of a huge win, they're valuable here.
The pick: Cincinnati +3.5
New Orleans vs. Arizona
11 of 17
Best home line: Arizona -1.5
Best away line: New Orleans +3
The New Orleans Saints against the Arizona Cardinals sounds like a shootout. In most cases, I would say to take the underdog in a shootout, but this is one of the rare instances when a home favorite is under three points in a shootout style of game.
This may be the hardest game of the week to select, but the Massey Rating has the Cardinals favored by 2.5 points and FiveThirdEight has the Cardinals favored by six points. Either way, you're on a safer side leaning closer to a three-point spread than a pick'em game according to the math.
If you are inclined to take the Saints, it's almost worth it to just go with the money line here.
The pick: Arizona -1.5
San Francisco vs. Atlanta
12 of 17
Best home line: Atlanta -13.5
Best away line: San Francisco +14.5
For the most part, I'm against putting money on double-digit spreads at the NFL level, but the San Francisco 49ers are an exception. For whatever reason, Vegas continues to overrate them, including making the now 1-12 team favorites last week against the New York Jets.
The Jets, with a third-string quarterback, were able to beat San Francisco in overtime after coming back from two different 14-point deficits in the first half last Sunday. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is no Bryce Petty, and the 49ers have proven that they can't be trusted on a half-to-half basis this year.
In the 12 games since their Week 1 victory against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football, they have lost eight of their games by double digits. Against the spread, according to TeamRankings.com, they are 2-10-1.
On the road, they are the worst team in the league with a 1-4-1 mark, an average margin of victory of minus-16.2 and an average margin of victory against the spread of minus-7.8. Don't lose money on 2016 Chip Kelly.
The pick: Atlanta -13.5
Oakland vs. San Diego
13 of 17
Best home line: San Diego +3
Best away line: Oakland -2.5
The Oakland Raiders win close games, which enhances the public's view of the team. The San Diego Chargers lose close games, which diminishes the public's view of the team.
For the most part, though, when teams play in close games, those results should be treated closer to ties than true "team X is better than team Y" arguments. In a tough AFC West, the tale of these two teams' record against the spread make a lot of sense.
In the toughest division in football, the Chargers are 3-1 against the spread this year, per TeamRankings.com. Only one team, the Baltimore Ravens, doesn't have a blemish on their divisional slate this year.
On the other hand, the Oakland Raiders are 1-3 against the spread against the West this year, putting them in a tie for the fourth-to-last spot in the NFL in those situations. Of the Raiders' 10 wins, five came by three or fewer points or in overtime.
The pick: San Diego +3
New England vs. Denver
14 of 17
Best home line: Denver +3.5
Best away line: New England -3
So let me get this straight: Last week, the New England Patriots were 7.5-point favorites against the Baltimore Ravens, but this week they're 3.5-point favorites, on the road, against a better Denver Broncos team? Not only did the Patriots not cover that game, but if this particular game were in New England, this line would reflect to about a double-digit home line for the Patriots.
As underdogs over the last two years, the Broncos are 9-2 against the spread, per TeamRankings.com, including a 4-0 mark at home as underdogs. Don't let a loss against the Tennessee Titans, whose quarterback Marcus Mariota only completed 30 percent of his passes, dissuade you from thinking about Denver here.
The Massey Rating believes that the Broncos should be 1.5-point favorites, while FiveThirtyEight projects a one-point line for the Patriots, a virtual pick'em. Either way, being on the right side of the key number of three appears to be the move here.
Denver has only lost by more than three points in one of their last seven games. Of their 13 games this season, only three in total have come as losses of over three points, with two of them coming on the road.
The pick: Denver +3.5
Tampa Bay vs. Dallas
15 of 17
Best home line: Dallas -7
Best away line: Tampa Bay +7.5
We need to have a real conversation about the Dallas Cowboys. We can't pretend like the bright lights of playoff football were enough to make quarterback Tony Romo go haywire for years and not assume that a national spotlight could effect the rookie tandem of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott that this Cowboys offense runs through.
In nationally televised games against starting quarterbacks this season, these have been the results:
- vs. Philadelphia, 29-23 overtime win
- vs. Washington, 31-26 win
- at Minnesota, 17-15 win
- at New York Giants, 10-7 loss
Dallas is 9-4 against the spread, but three of their losses have come in their last three games, which were all on national television, and they were razor thin to earning a fourth against Philadelphia. Maybe lines have gotten too big for the Cowboys to cover. Maybe the bright lights are getting to them.
What we do know is this: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 5-1 against the spread on the road this season, are allowing 12.8 points per game over the last five games, leading to a five-game winning streak. The Buccaneers get Dallas in a nationally televised game as multi-score underdogs.
The pick: Tampa Bay +7.5
Carolina vs. Washington
16 of 17
Best home line: Washington -4.5
Best away line: Carolina +7
The Carolina Panthers lost two of their first four games by multiple score, but in their last nine games, that has only happened once: when Ron Rivera dug his team into a hole by not starting quarterback Cam Newton.
Washington is a four-point favorite, despite the fact that Carolina has only lost by more than four points once in the last nine weeks and by more than a field goal twice. The Panthers have gone from historically overrated to historically underrated over the last couple weeks, mostly because of that massive Sunday Night Football loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Last month, the Kansas City Chiefs and Oakland Raiders couldn't hold onto more than a field goal lead. The Washington Redskins aren't even on their level in terms of talent.
The pick: Washington -4.5
Locks of the Week
17 of 17
1) Tampa Bay +7.5 vs. Dallas
2) Indianapolis vs. Minnesota -4
3) Detroit +5 vs. New York Giants
4) Tennessee vs. Kansas City -5
5) Cleveland vs. Buffalo -10
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