NFL Predictions Week 5: Chris Simms' Weekly Projections

Can I get half-credit for my Tyreek Hill prediction last week?

Remember: I thought the Oklahoma State product could torch the Steelers with his speed—he was clocked at 4.24 seconds at his pro day. Only a dumb Chiefs penalty prevented Hill’s 105-yard kick return—and prevented me from looking like a genius.

That’s life in the prediction business. I can only rely on what I see during my marathon film sessions to paint you the most accurate picture of the week that will be.

Who’s next to break out? Find out by flipping through this slideshow, but keep any flags in your pockets, please.

Upset Alert!

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Prediction: Texans over Vikings

This Vikings defense against ol’ Two-Turnover himself feels like a mismatch.

Don’t be drawn in. Brock Osweiler will make his mistakes, but he’s playing within the confines of a system the likes of which Minnesota hasn’t seen this season.

I trust Bill O’Brien to dig deep in his old Patriots background and craft an attack plan to counter Minnesota. It will involve plenty of quick three-step throws that get the ball on the perimeter to Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins. In other words…the opposite of what the Giants did on Monday Night Football.

Houston’s cornerback depth will shrink Sam Bradford’s passing windows. Can Minnesota's backup tackles hold up against Houston’s defense? If not, the Texans have a real chance.

Cakewalk of the Week

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Prediction: Patriots over Browns

A cakewalk in the NFL means there’s no threat of losing whatsoever.

By that definition, I’ll go with the Hall of Fame coach and quarterback against a winless Browns team. The end result won’t be in question.

Tom Brady might be rusty in his return. So what? He can still move the ball behind a great running game and solid yards-after-catch receivers.

Plus, Bill Belichick is the master at limiting opposing offenses. When he loads the front to stop Isaiah Crowell, who’s left? Cody Kessler and Terrelle Pryor. They shouldn’t keep anyone in New England up late at night.

Matchup Nightmare of the Week

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Prediction: Carr-Cooper-Crabtree vs. San Diego’s defense

Derek Carr will line up across from a defense that’s essentially the same one he shredded last year.

I expect the same result. I can count the number of quarterbacks playing at his level on one hand. None of those guys has the No. 1-No. 2 receiver tandem Oakland boasts either.

There’s no Jason Verrett to stop Amari Cooper from going off. There’s no great second cornerback to slow down Michael Crabtree.  This one might be over at halftime.

Sleeper QB

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Prediction: Ryan Fitzpatrick

You want a sleeper? You got one.

Listen, I’ve been tough on Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s as inconsistent a thrower of the football as there is in the NFL. But he’s well positioned to put up big numbers for three major reasons:

1. Pittsburgh’s secondary isn’t a world-beating one. There are throws to be had against it down the field. Just ask Carson Wentz.
2. Pittsburgh’s secondary is also simple. Fitzpatrick went to Harvard—have you heard? Finding the hole in a Tampa 2 defense shouldn’t be difficult.
3. Fitzpatrick has weapons! Even without Eric Decker—who was ruled out Friday—Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa can get open enough times to help their QB.

Sleeper RB

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Prediction: Melvin Gordon

Oakland should be worried about what Philip Rivers can do against its man coverage—and rightfully so.

That same coverage leaves it susceptible to big Melvin Gordon runs. I think the second-year ball-carrier runs wild against a surprisingly bad run defense.

How will it happen? J.J. Watt’s little brother, Derek. When Oakland mans up, its "Mike" linebacker is responsible for the tailback. All too often, though, the Chargers follow a fullback like Watt in motion for a split second and Watt steps in to block the middle linebacker.

That’s all Gordon needs. Expect a 100-yard rushing day in Oakland.

Sleeper WR/TE

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Prediction: Robert Woods

Life without Sammy Watkins hasn’t been bumpy for the bounce-back Bills.

Robert Woods is a big reason why. Since offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn took over, Woods has posted 13 catches for 140 yards. Don’t expect that production to slow when Buffalo goes west this weekend, either.

Woods used his shiftiness and smarts to run around Malcolm Butler last weekend. He’ll do the same against another press coverage guy in Trumaine Johnson.

Woods has Tyrod Taylor’s trust when it comes to moving the sticks. If asked, he’ll do a lot more against a secondary that is susceptible to big plays.

Immediate Impact Rookie

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Prediction: Kevin Dodd

Kevin Dodd first caught my eye in the predraft evaluation process.

He hasn’t stopped since. Dodd has displayed all the quickness and pop that made him such a menace to block at Clemson. Except, you know, in the NFL.

Dodd got the drop on quite a few Texans blockers last week. Their offensive line is serviceable; Miami’s is the worst in football. Expect a sack or two from No. 93 this weekend.

Best Game No One’s Talking About

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Prediction: Ravens vs. Redskins

I love a good Beltway Battle early on a Sunday...just not as much as Kirk Cousins or Joe Flacco does. Both will contend with passing defenses that are virtually nonexistent. And both have the arm strength to turn this game into an epic shootout.

Washington ought to be paranoid about stopping the run after last week. Baltimore has the slowest defensive backs in football. Cue the fireworks.

This game could be a shootout with scores in the high 30s to low 40s. That always makes for a fun one.

More Receiving Yards: Antonio Brown or Brandon Marshall?

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Prediction: Brandon Marshall

Brandon Marshall has much more than pride on the line heading into Week 5.

He has his Porsche. He’ll be motivated not to lose it when Antonio Brown puts their bet to the test.

I think Marshall out-catches Brown. Why? Because he might be the only go-to guy on this Gang Green offense. Enunwa is solid, but Marshall has been the clear go-to receiver in New York for the past two seasons and there's really no depth beyond Enunwa. Pittsburgh has No. 84 but also now boasts Le’Veon Bell, Sammie Coates, Markus Wheaton and so on.

Those extra receptions against a so-so Steelers pass defense are the difference. I see Marshall going for 125 yards on nine catches.

More Passing Touchdowns: Jameis Winston or Cam Newton?

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Prediction: Jameis Winston

This one boils down to my faith in the Panthers secondary.

I have none. Matt Ryan sliced it wide open last week, and Jameis Winston is just as talented a thrower of the football. Touchdowns are on the way.

Cam Newton is a different story this season. He’s not getting the time to connect on many of his long touchdown throws. And when he gets close, the Panthers run it—with Newton or someone else.

That’s not the same story for Winston. Tampa rarely scores rushing touchdowns in the red zone and doesn't call as many designed QB runs within five yards as the Panthers do with Cam. Tampa Bay’s run game won’t carry the team to win. It all rests on the right arm of its franchise quarterback.

More Sacks: Griffen and Hunter or Clowney and Mercilus?

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Prediction: Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter

Give me some Minnesota Vikings in any sack-off situation.

No team is better at rattling opposing signal-callers. That makes Everson Griffin and Danielle Hunter the best of the best.

More goes into this prediction than just their skill, though. Minnesota’s offensive line was just as impressive as its defensive counterpart in Week 4. The Vikings' two reserve tackles played like first-stringers on Monday Night Football.

Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon were held to a handful of pressures. Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus are in for a similar fate.

More INT: Bills or Rams Defense?

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Prediction: Bills

Opportunity is half the battle when it comes to interceptions.

Buffalo should have greater pick-off odds. Its front seven is flying around, and it returns run-stuffer Marcell Dareus from a suspension. That could spell an early end for Todd Gurley’s impact and some one-dimensional play from L.A.'s offense. 

Tyrod Taylor will play it safe in the meantime. He looks like a new quarterback in two outings under new play-caller Anthony Lynn. The two staples of Lynn’s offense? Running and safe throws.

One team needs to air it out. The other won’t force it. In a battle of similar secondaries, give me the Bills to pick off the Rams.

Under/Over: Tom Brady Touchdown Passes

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Line: 3.5

Prediction: Under

I’ve heard nothing but hot Patriots blowout takes on Twitter all week.

Dream on, people. Tom Brady is back, but this isn’t 2007. He’s not going to torch the Browns for more than three scores in his first action back from his suspension.

Let’s face facts: Brady is in his late 30s and hasn’t seen the field since August. We would expect a guy like that without his pedigree to need time and snaps to shake off the rust.

He’ll get both against Cleveland. But I wouldn’t be surprised if offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels features LeGarrette Blount a little more as No. 12 reacclimates to game speed.