College Football Week 6 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Conference play and rivalries highlight college football's Week 6 slate, which features four clashes between AP Top 25 programs.
The list of game picks against the spread is broken down into two sections—one that highlights the best games individually and another that covers the rest of the Top 25 schedule—and then organized by kickoff time in each.
After a terrible Week 5, the season record (40-44 with two pushes) dropped below .500 for the first time all year. It's time to get on a roll. But please remember the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
No. 3 Clemson vs. Boston College
1 of 10
When: Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Clemson (-16.5)
Fresh off what should be its biggest win of the season, Clemson heads to Boston College for a Friday night ACC tilt.
Perhaps a surprise to some, the Golden Eagles present a difficult test for quarterback Deshaun Watson because of speed and aggressiveness. Last season, they limited the Tigers to 3.1 yards per rush and forced two turnovers. Much of that unit is back.
Clemson's defense is also terrific, though. It has carried head coach Dabo Swinney's team so far this season, and even allowing 36 points to Louisville was respectable considering quarterback Lamar Jackson's talent and how much time the Tigers spent on the field.
But the biggest factor is Boston College's mediocre offense, which has mustered just 14 points in two conference games. While the defense should help BC avoid a blowout, Clemson will win comfortably.
The Pick: Clemson (-16.5)
Texas vs. No. 20 Oklahoma
2 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (Fox Sports 1)
The Line: Oklahoma (-10.5)
Last season, no result was more confusing than Texas' win over Oklahoma. In the process, the Longhorns managed to save head coach Charlie Strong's job for a year. Sometimes, narratives are the same.
Strong is feeling the pressure, evidenced by his decision to take over defensive play-calling duties, per Mike Finger of the San Antonio Express-News. But while storylines aren't always new, results often change.
This time around, Texas won't be able to lessen the pressure on Strong. The Sooners will shred a defense that has allowed 47-plus points three times en route to a Red River Rivalry win.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-10.5)
LSU vs. No. 18 Florida
3 of 10
When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
The Line: LSU (-3)
Ed Orgeron, perhaps the best interim coach in the history of college football, has a motivated LSU team. If Florida needs to use quarterback Austin Appleby in the conference clash, it could get ugly.
Fortunately for the Gators, head coach Jim McElwain said Luke Del Rio will practice and is hoping to play, per Zach Abolverdi of SEC Country.
But defense hasn't been LSU's problem this season. In the first game post-Les Miles, the Tigers racked up 634 yards and six touchdowns—without running back Leonard Fournette, who is questionable for the matinee, according to Jim Kleinpeter of NOLA.com.
No matter who is under center for Florida, LSU will start a winning streak with Orgeron.
The Pick: LSU (-3)
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No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 8 Texas A&M
4 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Line: Texas A&M (-7)
Tennessee can't keep doing this, right? Though the pessimist says no, the optimist says good teams find a way to win.
But Texas A&M is the toughest opponent yet. Defensive linemen Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall will be a nightmare for the Volunteers unless the offensive line can consistently create running lanes up the middle.
However, head coach Butch Jones has started to shake the history of letdowns during the fourth quarter. Texas A&M's offense won't struggle like Georgia's did in the final frame, but the Vols will have a chance late.
The Pick: Tennessee (+7)
No. 25 Virginia Tech vs. No. 17 North Carolina
5 of 10
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN2)
The Line: North Carolina (-2.5)
Most attention for the ACC is for teams in the Atlantic Division. Once again, though, there's a tight race brewing in the Coastal. An early edge is at stake when Virginia Tech and North Carolina meet.
The Hokies faltered against Tennessee, but that loss was the product of self-inflicted mistakes. A road trip to Chapel Hill provides head coach Justin Fuente and Co. with a chance for a major statement win.
Virginia Tech's defense will decide the game. While the unit is ranked ninth nationally, the Tar Heels boast an attack more explosive than anything the Hokies have encountered to date.
North Carolina will start slowly on offense, and Virginia Tech will continually find success against a poor defense.
The Pick: Virginia Tech (+2.5)
No. 21 Colorado vs. USC
6 of 10
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET (Pac-12 Network)
The Line: USC (-5)
We've been waiting for Colorado to take a step forward under head coach Mike MacIntyre, but this is remarkable. The Buffaloes have earned a spot in the AP poll for the first time since 2005.
Although their stay will be short-lived, the program can still earn national respect with a close loss on the road to favored USC.
Quarterback Steven Montez has excelled in his two games as Colorado's starter, so the Trojans face a difficult task. But USC's balanced offense will follow Michigan's blueprint and carry the team to a close victory.
The Pick: Colorado (+5)
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Arkansas
7 of 10
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The Line: Alabama (-14)
It probably sounds silly, but when the lights shine brightest in an unfriendly environment, so does Alabama.
During the last five prime-time games away from Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide are 4-1 against the spread. The only ATS loss was against Clemson in the national title game, which they still won.
Arkansas must be able to lean on quarterback Austin Allen's arm since Alabama has allowed just 68.4 rushing yards per game. However, the Tide will constantly pressure Allen and force a couple of mistakes that result in Alabama touchdowns and a wide margin of victory.
The Pick: Alabama (-14)
No. 5 Washington vs. Oregon
8 of 10
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
The Line: Washington (-8.5)
After demolishing Stanford, Washington has a favorable path to both the Pac-12 Championship Game and the College Football Playoff. Saturday presents an intriguing game.
Few venues are tougher as a road team than Autzen Stadium, but this 2016 Oregon team continues to perform below all expectations, particularly those from linemakers. The Ducks are 0-4-1 against the spread and 0-3 at home.
Both trends continue while the Huskies follow up a resounding victory with a double-digit win at Oregon.
The Pick: Washington (-8.5)
No. 23 Florida State vs. No. 10 Miami
9 of 10
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
The Line: Miami (-3)
How much does the "They've been here before" factor mean for a rivalry game? Florida State has defeated Miami in six straight seasons, and a seventh would tie the longest streak in series history.
But the Seminoles defense—a unit that was expected to be the strength of the team—is one of the worst in the country, especially without star safety Derwin James. Opponents have recorded 36 gains of 20-plus yards, which is tied for the most nationally.
Conversely, Mark Richt's team has dominated every week while the level of competition steadily rises. The prime-time showdown is a perfect chance for the Hurricanes to prove they are for real in 2016.
Call it a gut feeling, but Florida State is dangerous. The team's championship hopes are dashed, so at this point, there's no better motivation than shattering an in-state rival's dreams.
The Pick: Florida State (+3)
Other Top 25 Games
10 of 10
No. 19 Boise State (-17) vs. New Mexico
When: Friday, 9 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Five of Boise State's final eight games are on a Thursday or Friday, and that stretch starts against New Mexico. While the Broncos will avoid an early upset in Mountain West action, they'll surrender a few big plays to the triple-option offense. Boise State would improve to 5-0 overall but drop to 1-4 against the spread in 2016.
The Pick: New Mexico (+17)
No. 6 Houston (-17) vs. Navy
When: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Put simply, Houston is on fire. Since knocking off then-No. 3 Oklahoma, the Cougars have averaged a 38.8-point margin of victory. Much of that success can be attributed to Houston's aggressive and underrated defense. Once Navy is forced to pass, the game will only become more difficult for the run-first Midshipmen.
The Pick: Houston (-17)
Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State (-29)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Indiana is really good at testing ranked conference opponents when playing at home. In Week 5, the Hoosiers finally finished off a Top 25 victory and beat Michigan State. But Ohio State hosts this matchup. Since 2012, Indiana is 2-11 against the spread as a road underdog against Big Ten teams.
The Pick: Ohio State (-29)
No. 4 Michigan (-27.5) vs. Rutgers
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
The biggest question for this matchup isn't if Michigan will win; rather, it's if Rutgers will score. Don Brown's attack-minded defense limited Wisconsin to 159 total yards of offense and forced three turnovers. The Scarlet Knights failed to even reach 120 yards in a 58-point loss at Ohio State. Saturday marks Michigan's first game on the road, but that's basically the only reason this stays remotely close.
The Pick: Michigan (-27.5)
Arizona vs. No. 24 Utah (-9.5)
When: Saturday, 10 p.m. ET (Fox Sports 1)
Along with outstanding coaching, Utah's defense is stingy enough to compensate for an average offense. While the Utes often come out on top, tight finishes are common sights. Utah has played in three one-possession games this season and during each of the last five Pac-12 games. The Utes will win, but Arizona stays within a score.
The Pick: Arizona (+9.5)
Washington State vs. No. 15 Stanford (-7.5)
When: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Stanford will attempt to rebound from an embarrassing loss to Washington. The friendly confines of Palo Alto—where the Cardinal are 7-2 overall since 2015—should help. Although Washington State and its newly balanced offense will force Stanford into a 60-minute battle, David Shaw's team will bounce back with a much-needed victory.
The Pick: Washington State (+7.5)
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All recruiting information via Scout. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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