The Roundtable's Weekend Wrapup and Monday Fantasy Baseball Notes

We're sitting here on the second day of June. The Cubs have the best record in baseball at this point in time for the first time since 1908. Tampa is in first in the AL East. The Yankees have virtually all of their starting players healthy, and are still seven games out. The White Sox are in first place by a game, yet their manager is calling for drastic changes following the loss to first-place Tampa. I don't get it. Can someone explain all of this to me? All this in mind, let's get to the notes...

• David Ortiz will undergo a series of tests today on what is being termed a sprained wrist. Ortiz has hurt his wrist before, breaking a hamate bone in 2003. I'd expect him to miss some time this week with the injury. Even if deemed healthy, expect him to be out of the lineup tonight for certain, and plan to use him later in the week if you update lineups daily. Weekly leagues that require decisions to be made now, I'd keep him on my bench. I know that's a risk, but he may not put up any stats to measure against.
• Jay Bruce has started his career with two bombs of home runs and a .591 batting average. Obviously, he's not going to hit .600. At the same time, he shouldn't be available in any league. If he is, time to grab him. Treading water with players such as Melky Cabrera when a stud like Bruce is on waivers doesn't make sense from any perspective. His value right now is too high to look for a trade on. He'll come down to earth, the same way all players do. It's just a question of when.
• Heard an interesting note on Kerry Wood over the weekend. First, Carlos Marmol was brought in over the weekend in a save situation strictly because of the use Wood has received in garnering his 14 saves. Nothing to worry about. Second, Wood has been given a lot of heat regarding his control. The fact is, Wood has always struggled with control. Now, it is simply more magnified because of the ninth inning, close-game situations. He feels it isn't anything the media should concern themselves with. But, as a fantasy owner, it's enough to make you worry. One-run games can be lost because of hitting a batter and fluke hits. Just something to keep in mind as offers come in for him.
• In a lot of our notes for the games that day, we highlight trends regarding home/road splits, or notes regarding how batters have done against certain pitchers or pitchers against teams. Paul Byrd is one reason why. Byrd struggled against Kansas City yesterday in the loss. There are days he's worthy of a spot start, but not on the road. For 2008, his ERA away from Jacobs Field (I will not call it Progressive Field) is 7.71 in six starts. Batters hit .320 against him. The Royals already had shown success against him. Trends are trends for a reason.
• Bartolo Colon pitched his third, solid game in a row. He was up to over 100 pitches before really tiring in the seventh inning. His fastball was between 93-95, and he looked overpowering at times. I'd rather have him on my staff than Jeff Francis or Brad Penny right now, that much I can tell you. He's worth owning in all AL-only formats and most deep, mixed leagues (12 teams or more).
• Vicente Padilla will not be pitching for the Rangers tonight. He left the team on Wednesday to be with family in Nicaragua. He's expected to only miss the one start and could be back to pitch on Tuesday. This did have spot-start potential, so worth noting. Doug Mathis will start in his place.
• In his last five starts, A.J. Burnett has not given up more than three earned runs. That seems to be a magic number, because Toronto's offense doesn't often score more than that for him. He's also averaging just under eight strikeouts per outing in that time and has kept his WHIP at 1.13. These are VERY solid numbers, and they show that Burnett is more on the upswing. If you can grab him cheap, he's worth owning. These peripheral stats will help make up for the lack of wins. He'll also draw the Orioles in his next start. Given the way they hit, I'd start him there.
• Other thoughts: Two bad outings in a row against the Mets for Hiroki Kuroda. Of the closer breakdowns, the only one with fantasy impact is B.J. Ryan. He's the only guy that has two other players behind him that can do the job. Even with the home run yesterday, Derek Jeter is four for his last 25, and has had just one multiple-hit game in his last ten. Carlos Beltran is heating up, going .320/2/5 in his last six games. I fully expect Manny Ramirez to go on a tear now that the 500 home run monkey is off his back.
• Homer Bailey will be called up to start for the Reds on Thursday. This is good news for fantasy owners who have been waiting for this to happen. All it took was Josh Fogg going to the DL. If you can explain to me why Bailey couldn't beat out Fogg, I have a shiny quarter for you.
• John Smoltz could return as early as tonight for a trip to the bullpen. Expect Rafael Soriano to maintain the closing responsibilities in the short term, but Smoltz could take them over once he proves the health of his shoulder. Tim Hudson is dealing with a sore hamstring. Never a good injury for pitchers.

 

Notes for Monday:

• Despite Jeter's recent struggles, he's 5-12 lifetime against Livan Hernandez, with a home run. He's still a stud shortstop. You wouldn't get even value in a trade for him, so until he starts to turn the corner, you either bench him, take short money on him, or fight through it. Andy Pettitte has been very tough on lefties, so if you have a better option than Justin Morneau or Joe Mauer, they might be worth looking at.
• Tim Wakefield looked great against Seattle last time out, but the hitters on Baltimore have seen him more and have had success. Don't be afraid to put Melvin Mora, Kevin Millar, or Ramon Hernandez in your lineups against Wakefield. The three have combined for seven home runs and 22 RBI. Wakefield is also 3-4 with an ERA of 5.57 in his last nine outings against the Orioles.
• Bronson Arroyo has struggled on the road, and has had a rough outing against Philadelphia already this season. I'd keep him on the bench. Start Geoff Jenkins if you have him, as he's 7-24 with two home runs against Arroyo. Kyle Kendrick is a borderline spot start because of his success at home. But he has struggled with lefites, so Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, and Jay Bruce should all be in lineups.
• I'm not a fan of recommending Jeff Suppan, but in four games at home, he has an ERA under 1.00, and batters are only hitting .216 against him. He's a spot start in deep, mixed leagues.
• Derek Lowe bounced back from a rough start against Anaheim, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts. The Rockies are filled with injuries and don't hit well on the road. Worth a spot start.
• Keep Scott Olsen on your bench. The Braves all hit him well, especially some guy named Chipper. Tom Gorzelanny is 1-4 on the road with a 10.18 ERA. The Cardinals hit .293 against him as a team. You do the math. Adam Wainwright, though, isn't much better against the Pirates. They hit .328 against him as a team. I would start any Pirate you own.
• Need starts today? Aaron Laffey, Lowe, JoJo Reyes, and Jeremy Guthrie (even against the Red Sox) in that order.

 

Notes for Tuesday:

• Love Justin Masterson for a spot start against Tampa. He's had two good outings, and faces a team that's still young and impatient at the plate. Should be good for all the off-speed stuff that Masterson likes to throw. Matt Garza isn't a bad play, but he wasn't stellar in his last outing against Boston and struggles on the road.
• Joba gets his first start. Don't expect more than five innings or 65-75 pitches. Worth a spot if you have one though, especially against the offense-challenged Blue Jays.
• How is this for a gutsy call: Barry Zito is worth a spot start against the Mets. Check out the stats: Beltran hits .188 in 32 at bats, Delgado is at .211 in 19 at bats, and as a team they only hit .231 with three home runs in 117 at bats. Pedro Martinez will make his first start since returning from the DL. I like Pedro, but keep him benched to be certain, even against the lowly Giants offense.
• Erik Bedard may be an ace, but the Angels own him. Keep all of them in your lineup. Surprisingly, the Mariners hit Joe Saunders pretty well, and have forced him to an ERA over four in two meetings this year. Expect offense from this matchup on both sides.
• Dontrelle Willis returns to the rotation. Just sayin'.
• Early spot start calls: Kevin Slowey, Zito, and Jorge Campillo

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