Predicting Final Leaders for Each Top 2016 MLB Stat Category
Baseball lost an exuberant young star who would have frequented the top of pitching leaderboards for years.
On Sunday morning, Jose Fernandez and two other men were killed in a boating accident. The Miami Marlins pitcher, who was 24, had far more greatness on and off the field to offer.
It wouldn't be right to leave out Fernandez when discussing 2016's premier performers. His 2.86 ERA doesn't fully depict his domination. Some better indicators of his pitching awesomeness include his 12.49 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and 2.29 fielding independent pitching (FIP), both of which lead all qualified starters.
Yet those numbers are obsolete compared to the joy he brought everyone. As others fought over baseball's unwritten code, he smiled. When things didn't go well, he still smiled.
His tragic death has created a massive void nobody can fill. As a result, the final look at the season's category leaders features fewer pitching stats. It's not the same without Fernandez.
Categories Wrapped Up
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Slugging Percentage/OPS: David Ortiz (.632 SLG, 1.039 OPS)
What a way to go out. In his final season, David Ortiz is the only player with a slugging percentage above .600 and one of two (Mike Trout) with an OPS higher than 1.000.
With 37 home runs, the 40-year-old designated hitter also broke Dave Kingman's record for most during a final season. Having hit six of them over his last 15 games, Big Papi is smashing his way into the sunset.
Steals: Jonathan Villar (59)
Billy Hamilton was running away with MLB's steals title before straining his oblique earlier this month. According to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon, the Cincinnati Reds speedster will likely sit out the final week.
In his absence, Jonathan Villar has jumped ahead on the steals leaderboard. Unless Hamilton returns, Villar's 59 will set the bar.
WAR: Mike Trout (9.2 on FanGraphs, 10.5 on Baseball-Reference.com)
Shocker, Trout is the still the best player in baseball. The Los Angeles Angels outfielder has continued his annual tradition of topping the WAR leaderboard by batting .318/.441/.560 with 29 homers and 27 steals.
Although he's the deserving candidate, voters won't award him American League MVP honors because of his terrible team.
Defense Runs Saved: Mookie Betts (30)
Mookie Betts' offensive prosperity is well-documented. Batting .321 with 31 homers, 119 runs, 109 RBI and 26 steals, the Boston Red Sox outfielder is a fantasy savior and MVP contender.
He's also an incredible outfielder credited for 30 defensive runs saved (DRS). Adam Eaton is second with 24.
On any other team, he'd roam center with great success. On Boston, he's the brilliant student coasting to A's in remedial courses, easily shutting down right field as Jackie Bradley Jr. vies for a Gold Glove in center.
ERA: Kyle Hendricks (1.99)
It would take a disastrous final start for Kyle Hendricks to squander his ERA title to Chicago Cubs teammate Jon Lester. A blow-up outing is unlikely from someone who hasn't surrendered more than four earned runs in a start this season.
Since the Cubs also have the division and National League's best record wrapped up, manager Joe Maddon would yank him before the Reds could inflict enough damage on Hendricks' 1.99 ERA, which he dipped below 2.00 with six shutout innings on Monday night. It's possible the NL Cy Young Award favorite makes an abbreviated start or skips it altogether.
Wins: Rick Porcello (22)
J.A. Happ was on the verge of claiming win No. 21 on Monday night before the Toronto Blue Jays bullpen relinquished five runs in the ninth inning. Rick Porcello will now stay atop the win column with 22.
Holds: Addison Reed (38)
New York Mets closer Jeurys Familia receives more attention for his MLB-high 49 saves, but Addison Reed has proven just as instrumental to their success. The setup man has recorded a 2.08 ERA, 86 strikeouts and 38 holds in 73.2 innings.
Like saves, holds isn't an airtight stat. But no other reliever has 30 this year.
Strikeouts: Max Scherzer (267)
Fernandez could have kept Max Scherzer honest for the strikeout belt. He then would have dominated the category for the next decade.
Batting Average
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| Rank | Player | BA |
| 1 | DJ LeMahieu, COL | .350 |
| 2 | Daniel Murphy, WAS | .347 |
| 3 | Jose Altuve, HOU | .338 |
An early batting-title candidate last year, DJ LeMahieu faded down the stretch. A reasonable onlooker deduced this as natural regression for someone who still ended 2015 with a career-high .301 batting average.
This year, he's batting .368 in the second half with 75 hits over his last 47 games. The Colorado Rockies second baseman's contact percentage has increased from 85.2 to 90.5, and his hard-hit rate has catapulted from 26.6 to 35.4.
Capturing the batting title punctuates his place in history. That's how everyone will remember this year. Yet the 28-year-old's all-around improvement makes his breakout campaign truly exceptional.
Along with the average rise, he wields a 10.5 walk rate and .419 on-base percentage. Entering the year with 15 career home runs, he has gone deep 11 times. And yes, he has padded his numbers by making the most of Coors Field, but not every major leaguer could hit .394/.476/.595 in a little league park.
Daniel Murphy hasn't started since Sept. 17 due to a mild glute strain, and the Washington Nationals are more concerned about his postseason availability. Jose Altuve jumped back into the fold, but he's too far behind LeMahieu to win his second batting title.
Prediction: LeMahieu
On-Base Percentage
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| Rank | Player | OBP |
| 1 | Mike Trout, LAA | .441 |
| 2 | Joey Votto, CIN | .435 |
Everyone focuses on batting average, but all the cool kids care about on-base percentage.
With a microscopic fraction of the nation watching, Trout will fight to fend off Joey Votto for MLB's best rate. It shouldn't surprise anyone to see these two studs at the top, as they're the only two active hitters with a career OBP above .400.
Yet it will stun anyone who checked out on the Reds. Votto limped into June batting .215/.336/.403, but the 33-year-old first baseman has since raised his slash line to a remarkable .321/.435/.539.
Despite posting a .459 on-base percentage last year, Votto finished one tick shy of Bryce Harper for the little-appreciated crown. He's in danger of once again finishing second behind a young superstar.
It seems impossible for Trout to improve, but he has registered a career-best 17.0 walk percentage. Both stuck with a crummy supporting cast, they have nothing to play for but pride during the final week.
Trout is going to get robbed of yet another MVP trophy, so let's not strip him of this minor consolation prize.
Prediction: Trout
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Home Runs
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| Rank | Player | HR |
| 1 | Mark Trumbo, BAL | 45 |
| T2 | Edwin Encarnacion, TOR | 42 |
| T2 | Brian Dozier, MIN | 42 |
| 4 | Nelson Cruz, SEA | 41 |
| T5 | Nolan Arenado, COL | 40 |
| T5 | Khris Davis, MIL | 40 |
So much for power dying. As a whole, the game has fostered the most home runs since 2006. A year after 20 players amassed 30 homers or more, 34 have accomplished the feat.
Yet no single player has trumpeted the uptick with an inflated tally. The leaderboard, however, is crowded at the top.
In his first year with the Baltimore Orioles, Mark Trumbo holds a narrow lead with 45 dingers. Despite a .191 second-half batting average, he has gone deep 17 times. He gained some breathing room by rounding the bases on Friday and Saturday.
Brian Dozier is as hot as anyone can be, smacking 23 homers in the Minnesota Twins' last 50 contests. Despite falling to earth over the past week, the second baseman can pull off the heist with the Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox each slated to start two southpaws against the Twins this week. He boasts a career .516 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers.
The least surprising slugger reaching for the crown, Edwin Encarnacion has clobbered an MLB-high 210 deep flies since 2010. He has accrued 19 of those since 2016's All-Star break, and Toronto should play him in each of the six remaining games with a playoff berth at stake.
Either Dozier or Encarnacion looked poised to upend Trumbo before he bolstered his lead with two more shots. That final surge should prove enough to fend off his explosive competition.
Prediction: Trumbo
RBI
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| Rank | Player | RBI |
| 1 | Nolan Arenado, COL | 129 |
| 2 | Edwin Encarnacion, TOR | 126 |
| 3 | David Ortiz, BOS | 124 |
RBI is too circumstantial to accurately predict. Encarnacion could erase Nolan Arenado's lead with one swing. Or, if he happened to homer with the bases empty instead of full, he'd still trail by two.
Arenado, Encarnacion and Ortiz all bat in the heart of potent lineups. They all play three more games inside a favorable home park, with the stadium advantage belonging to the Rockies third baseman, who has already driven in 83 runs at Coors Field.
Ortiz should only have to combat one lefty (Happ), and the Red Sox won't cheat him of playing time even as his farewell tour extends into October. He might as well snatch as many accolades as possible before heading out.
Colorado concludes its season at Coors against the Milwaukee Brewers, a series ripe with run-producing opportunities. The AL East adversaries will make it interesting before the final weekend, but Coors will push Arenado over the finish line.
Prediction: Arenado
Runs Scored
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| Rank | Player | Runs |
| T1 | Josh Donaldson, TOR | 121 |
| T1 | Mike Trout, LAA | 121 |
| 3 | Kris Bryant, CHC | 120 |
| 4 | Mookie Betts, BOS | 119 |
The tightest race remaining, four MVP candidates are neck-and-neck atop MLB's runs leaderboard.
This list reflects a fundamental change in lineup construction, as guys like Trout, Betts, Josh Donaldson and Kris Bryant frequently bat atop the order rather than third or fourth. Boston, however, has shifted Betts to a cleanup role after he spent most of the season leading off.
The other guys still often bat No. 2, which is increasingly perceived as the optimal spot for a team's best hitter. The second hitter snags some more plate appearances higher in the order while still operating behind a batter who should reach base with aplomb.
Not to say any of the others will stop trying, but Donaldson is the only one fighting for his club's postseason livelihood. Since the Cubs have already wrapped up, Bryant will likely get an off day or two. The Red Sox are at least battling for home-field advantage, and the Angels can play spoiler to the rival Houston Astros.
Donaldson has reached base in all but three September games, so let's give him the nod as the Blue Jays wrap up one of two wild-card spots.
Prediction: Donaldson
WAR (Pitchers)
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| Rank | Player | WAR |
| 1 | Clayton Kershaw, LAD | 6.5 |
| 2 | Jose Fernandez, MIA | 6.2 |
| 3 | Noah Syndergaard, NYM | 6.1 |
Mistrust of WAR justifiably amplifies for pitchers. In this case, it's a helpful tool for appreciating Clayton Kershaw.
It's hard to take any measurement seriously when it varies so wildly. The FanGraphs leaderboard above differs drastically from Baseball-Reference.com's version, which has Corey Kluber (6.5) battling Max Scherzer (6.4) for the top spot. In that version, Kershaw is merely tied with Johnny Cueto despite missing over two months.
The Los Angeles Dodgers ace dominated every notable pitching category before injuring his back. Including four encouraging September starts, he sports a 1.65 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. His 168 strikeouts and 10 walks over 142 innings seems too amazing to be real.
He hasn't pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, but he holds FanGraphs' best WAR among all pitchers. Noah Syndergaard fell behind when missing Saturday's scheduled start due to strep throat, but he can make two more starts if needed.
Kershaw, meanwhile, has not allowed an earned run over his past three appearances. A limited outing for him could mean only working six innings, and the Dodgers may still have a chance to earn home-field advantage in their upcoming National League Division Series showdown with Washington.
Prediction: Kershaw
WHIP
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| Rank | Player | WHIP |
| 1 | Max Scherzer, WAS | 0.93 |
| 2 | Kyle Hendricks, CHC | 0.97 |
| 3 | Rick Porcello, BOS | 0.99 |
| 4 | Jon Lester, CHC | 1.00 |
| 5 | Justin Verlander, DET | 1.01 |
Along with his strikeout crown, Scherzer can boost his Cy Young candidacy by besting everyone in WHIP.
He boasts a 0.93 mark with help from MLB's second-lowest hits-per-nine-innings rate (6.2) behind Jake Arrieta's 6.0. In addition to consistently missing bats, he has only doled out 52 walks over 217.1 innings.
Hendricks has produced his microscopic ERA by inducing a league-best percentage (24.9) of soft contact on batted balls. It's also possible his 0.97 WHIP is final if the Cubs decide not to use him on turn this weekend.
Scherzer faces a similar situation. After hosting his former team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, he could pitch Washington's season finale against the Marlins. If the ace wins on Tuesday, Nationals manager Dusty Baker will likely give him a crack at claiming win No. 20.
It would require an uncharacteristically poor outing or two for Scherzer to fall behind Hendricks or Porcello. He's most vulnerable to the long ball, which damages his ERA more than WHIP.
Prediction: Scherzer
Saves
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| Rank | Player | SV |
| 1 | Jeurys Familia, NYM | 49 |
| 2 | Kenley Jansen, LAD | 47 |
| 3 | Zach Britton, BAL | 46 |
Familia has pitched in 74 games this season, a mark exceeded by four other relievers. The heavy workload may be catching up to him.
After successfully converting his first 36 save opportunities, the Mets stopper has since blown five chances. He also has surrendered seven hits and five runs over his last five appearances. After throwing a season-high 30 pitches in a losing effort on Wednesday, he oddly returned the following day to capitulate two more runs.
Then again, the Mets aren't about to rest him during the final stretch of a heated wild-card pursuit. Final games against the Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies can afford him chances to reach 50 or more saves.
Having locked down all 46 save opportunities while allowing four earned runs all season, Zach Britton has undoubtedly had the best year of any reliever. The odds, however, are against the Orioles presenting him with four or more opportunities in six games.
Kenley Jansen also boasts video game numbers, issuing 102 strikeouts to nine walks over 67.2 masterful frames. His 1.38 FIP leads all qualified relievers, so he's a safe bet to solidify any narrow leads the Dodgers protect into the final inning. After clinching the NL West on Sunday, there's no reason to overwork their late-game ace this week.
Prediction: Familia
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com.
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