Bleacher Report's Expert College Football Predictions for Week 3
Week 2 of the college football season didn't match any ranked teams for the first time since September 2012, but Week 3 is when the rubber meets the road.
No. 2 Florida State will visit No. 10 Louisville, No. 1 Alabama will travel to No. 19 Ole Miss, No. 12 Michigan State will head to South Bend, Indiana, to take on No. 18 Notre Dame, third-ranked Ohio State visits No. 14 Oklahoma, and several other matchups will define the early-season college football landscape.
How will Week 3 shake out?
Bleacher Report experts Adam Kramer, Barrett Sallee, Chris Walsh, Ben Axelrod, Greg Couch and Michael Felder answer some of the week's pressing questions.
Which Team Will Make the Biggest Statement?
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Adam Kramer
Louisville.
It feels like we might be on the verge of something spectacular and unexpected. As good as Florida State is in so many places, this is a game Louisville can win—and in my opinion, will win—against a team far more familiar with the national spotlight.
Even if that prediction falls apart, do yourself a favor and watch this. Please? This has a chance to steal the spotlight from the matchups we thought would headline a loaded weekend. Absolutely cannot wait.
Barrett Sallee
I'm going to go with Auburn, which will win a battle of coaches on the hot seat at home over Texas A&M.
I picked A&M and head coach Kevin Sumlin to win this game before the season, but Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn found an offensive identity last week versus Arkansas State, and the defense has been even better than I expected.
Auburn will have some success against Aggies quarterback Trevor Knight, notch a big win for Malzahn and put Sumlin under enormous pressure next week when his Aggies face Arkansas in Arlington, Texas.
Chris Walsh
There are so many to choose from, but Alabama is going to make one at Ole Miss. Nick Saban has lost two straight to the Rebels, and he was flat-out mad about the way his team played against Western Kentucky.
Focus won't be a problem in Tuscaloosa this week.
Ben Axelrod
Ohio State.
I fully expect this to be the week Ohio State solidifies itself as one of the playoff front-runners entering conference play. We all saw what Houston did to the Sooners in Week 1, and there's no reason Urban Meyer can't do the same with a roster full of better players.
In one of the bigger games of the 2016 season, the Buckeyes should win comfortably.
Greg Couch
I almost want to go with Nebraska here. The Huskers get Oregon at home and can finally look like a national-level program with a win, which I expect they'll get it.
Instead, taking a chance, I'm going with Louisville. The Cardinals take down Florida State, climb well into the Top 10 and put quarterback Lamar Jackson at the top of the Heisman list.
Michael Felder
Florida State.
We're all so hyped about Lamar Jackson and Louisville, but a Florida State win over this phenom will firmly put it into the driver's seat. Even without Derwin James (knee injury), the team has a ton of defensive talent that will force Jackson into a few mistakes.
On the other side, we'll get to see Deondre Francois on the big stage living up to expectations.
Will Hugh Freeze Beat Nick Saban for a Third Straight Year?
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Kramer
No, not this year.
I do believe the Ole Miss defensive line will make its presence felt against an offensive line that has struggled through much of the early part of the season. But Alabama is too good defensively and should be dominant against a team that has struggled to run the football consistently.
As dominant as Alabama has seemed at times, it is nowhere close to figuring it all out just yet. At some point it will, although I'm not even sure it has to in order to win this game.
Sallee
That won't happen this year.
Ole Miss won last year because head coach Hugh Freeze game-planned around deficiencies along the offensive line and used a ton of three-step drops to get quarterback Chad Kelly in a groove.
With offensive line and rushing attack issues persisting, it's his only option this go-round. Alabama will get creative, disguise blitzes and rattle Kelly enough to get a big road win.
Walsh
No.
Ole Miss needed five turnovers and a couple of freak plays to pull off last year's win, and this team can't count on that. The Rebels' biggest weakness, the offensive line, is up against the Crimson Tide's pass-rushers, who will eventually get to quarterback Chad Kelly in a way that will alter the outcome.
Axelrod
Nope.
It's only been two weeks, and USC's brand name is more impressive than its on-field play, but this is the most impressed I've been with Alabama at the start of a season in quite some time.
Getting up for both Florida State and the Crimson Tide in the first two weeks is a tall task, and I can't imagine the Rebels being a squad capable of pulling it off.
Couch
Something Freeze is doing works against Saban.
Credit him for being able to get under Saban's skin, but not this time. So far, Alabama has been the only team in the nation that looks like it wants to get to the College Football Playoff.
Felder
Yes.
The formula is still there for Ole Miss: QB runs, run-pass conflict, great wide receiver play and opportunity. Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Hurts is going to have to win this game for Alabama, and that is scary.
Ole Miss can get on top of them in a hurry, and that will force offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin into a shootout we still are not sure this Tide team can handle.
Will Louisville QB Lamar Jackson Be More Than a Dark-Horse Heisman Candidate?
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Kramer
Well, yes.
It's way, way too early to seriously be talking Heisman, but the numbers are only a small portion of this kid's magnificent start. He looks bigger and more explosive, and he's completing more passes. Even in a loss, if he plays well, he will remain in this conversation.
If he wins, well, the hysteria will reach a new pitch entirely.
Sallee
He's left fighting an uphill battle in the Heisman race because the quarterback on the other side will make a bigger Heisman statement. Sure, voters love video game numbers, but they love winning more.
Florida State quarterback Deondre Francois made a big statement in his first career game on Labor Day. He will have success against the Louisville defense, lead his team to a tough road win and assert himself as one of the top contenders for the award.
Walsh
He'll obviously be considered a more legitimate contender with a win against the Seminoles.
That the game will be played in Louisville is a big plus for the Cardinals, and a win could mean an inside lane in the ACC Atlantic Division, possibly more (although Clemson figures to have something to say about it).
Axelrod
Isn't he already? I mean, at this point, I'd be hard-pressed not to call him the front-runner.
I'm not necessarily counting on it happening, as I think the Seminoles will put an end to the Cardinals' hot start. However, if Jackson keeps racking up the numbers he has in the first two weeks, he'll solidify his status at the front of the pack.
Couch
It feels like a trick question.
Lamar Jackson is already a mainstream candidate. Anyone with a vote has already noticed the guy can throw and is impossible to tackle. This one moves him to the top of the list, though.
Felder
Yes.
Even in a loss, he's going to open some eyes with his performance, mostly because the bulk of the population has not seen him play much this year. He's going to make some "wow" plays, and as people see what he can do, they're going to fall hard for his dynamism.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
How Big a Threat Is Oklahoma to Ohio State?
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Kramer
Now is not the time to abandon Oklahoma or the Big 12, as rough as the start has been.
The Sooners still have a fantastic creator at quarterback in Baker Mayfield and two excellent running backs who will push a defense with many new faces. The concern for Oklahoma is on defense.
After Greg Ward Jr. picked this group apart in Week 1, how will it regain form against one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the sport? I believe this has a chance to be a thriller—one of a handful this weekend—and Oklahoma will have a chance.
Sallee
No, not the way the Ohio State defense has been playing.
Look, I know the schedule hasn't been daunting, but the Buckeyes are averaging just 3.06 yards per play and have given up only one play of 20 or more yards through two games, according to cfbstats.com.
Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield and Co. won't be able to have the kind of success you need to keep up with what Buckeye quarterback J.T. Barrett will bring to the table.
Walsh
Huge.
Like Jimmy Fallon doing his Donald Trump impression and saying the "U" for multiple seconds, huge. I'm high on Ohio State, but Oklahoma is in desperation mode after losing to Houston and will be out of the playoff race with another loss.
It's now or never for the Sooners.
Axelrod
The Sooners are a threat, but probably not as big as they seem to be.
It hasn't been against top-level competition, but the Buckeyes have been rolling these past two weeks, which is promising after all the talent they lost from last year's team. Urban Meyer vs. Bob Stoops is a coaching mismatch, and I wouldn't be surprised to see that prove to be the case Saturday.
Couch
With the game in Norman and the Sooners already having lost, Oklahoma knows it's probably out of the College Football Playoff if it loses. That is incentive.
Definitely Oklahoma is a serious threat. It will be a close game, but Ohio State wins in the end.
Felder
A serious threat, especially if the Buckeyes start slowly and that allows Oklahoma to feel comfortable continuing to run the ball.
Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett has to come hot out of the gate. More importantly, running back Mike Weber has to get going on the ground against a Sooners team that knows it needs a win to stay in the playoff picture.
Who Needs a Win More, Kevin Sumlin or Gus Malzahn?
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Kramer
Is there a "both" option?
I'll go strictly by the numbers if not because Auburn already has a loss on the card, albeit a close loss to Clemson. The idea of adding another "L" this early on will sound the alarms.
It's worth noting that a defeat here won't be considered acceptable for Kevin Sumlin, either. These are the types of games both coaches have failed to win consistently in the past. The issue this week, of course, is they have to play one another.
Godspeed, gents.
Sallee
Malzahn, for sure.
First because there's already a home loss. Secondly because a big home win over an SEC opponent that has owned Jordan-Hare Stadium in its previous two visits would go a long way toward vaulting Auburn to SEC West relevancy and Malzahn away from that hot seat.
Sumlin needs a win too, but he has much more room to rebound if the Aggies fall.
Walsh
I'll go with Gus Malzahn, only because Kevin Sumlin already has a good win this season over UCLA. One has to wonder what might happen at Auburn if it takes another early-season loss.
Even though it's the SEC opener for both teams, this almost has an elimination-game feel to it regarding the division chase. It's that big of a game.
Axelrod
When in doubt, go with the coach in Texas, so long as Tom Herman still isn't employed by a Power Five program.
As long as there's a perfect replacement waiting down the road in Houston, all coaches in the Lone Star State should be on notice. For that reason alone, I'll go with Sumlin.
Couch
Tough one.
Both are being pressured by the bigger boy in their state—Texas and Alabama, respectively. Both have fanbases that think they should be in the College Football Playoff regularly.
But who needs it more? I'm thinking Sumlin is probably safe for the season with a win here, but Malzahn needs a win and plenty more. So I'm going with Malzahn, though it seems a little rough that people are already giving up on him.
Felder
Malzahn, right now.
Sumlin already has a win over UCLA that has fans excited and has restored some faith in the Aggies. Malzahn needs to beat someone of note to achieve the same at Auburn. A win for Sumlin might get folks jazzed up, especially in viewing the state of the SEC West.
How Much of an Impact Will Week 3 Results Have on the Final CFP Rankings?
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Kramer
The real impact of this week could be on the teams that already have a loss on the schedule, if they happen to lose again.
For teams such as Oklahoma, Notre Dame, LSU and Ole Miss—programs with enormous expectations—making the playoff with two losses this early becomes an uphill climb with another loss.
That's not to say it's impossible; we should know better by now. But life can become far more challenging moving forward if things take a turn this week.
Sallee
It's enormous for teams that we thought would have a chance at the playoff that already have a loss.
Teams such as Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Notre Dame and USC can't realistically hope for a CFP spot having already lost two games in September.
The Sooners and Rebels will fall and be eliminated, while Notre Dame and USC will rally and put pressure on the teams they'll beat—Michigan State and Stanford, respectively—for the rest of the year.
Walsh
A lot.
The Big 12 desperately needs a key nonconference win, and the Pac-12 already looks like a demolition derby. Both have to already be worried about getting a team in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Big Ten only has six losses heading into its last weekend of nonconference play.
If things keep up like this, you'll hear a lot of talk soon about which conference is most deserving to get not one but two playoff teams.
Axelrod
Obviously, all of the weeks have an effect on the CFP rankings, but this week will matter more than most.
If Oklahoma loses, its playoff hopes are dead. The same can be said for Ole Miss and Notre Dame. Ohio State can give itself a little room for error heading into Big Ten play, and Michigan State can assert itself as a viable playoff candidate.
Couch
There's something about the structure of the playoff that mistakenly has us feeling as if each week is filled with elimination games. At this point, these games only help add to the list of teams that will be considered.
It could be the end for Oklahoma. It could be the start for Louisville. It could be helpful for Ohio State later if the Buckeyes lose to Michigan and are hoping to beat out a conference champ for a spot in the playoff.
So, yes, it will feel as if this week will have a big impact. But no, in the end it won't.
Felder
A lot and none.
For teams such as Oklahoma, Notre Dame and USC, it can wipe them out completely, so a lot of impact. For other teams, such as Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and such, not much impact.
A loss in Week 3, if that is the only loss, means they can still get into the playoff.
Who Will Be the Breakout Star of the Week?
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Kramer
Damien Harris.
I love what I have seen in small doses from the Alabama running back, even though his numbers haven't been gaudy. While it seems strange to pick an Alabama back as a breakout player given recent history, this unit is still trying to sort itself out.
Assuming the offensive line can carve out a few more holes than last week, it wouldn't shock me to see Harris become the established back in a game the country will be watching.
Sallee
Auburn defensive end Carl Lawson.
The redshirt junior's presence on the Auburn defense has mattered more than his statistical output this year—four tackles and one sack. With offensive line questions still lingering at Texas A&M, Lawson will make his presence felt on the stat sheet this week, live in the Aggies backfield and make life uncomfortable for quarterback Trevor Knight.
Walsh
I want to go with Arizona State running back Kalen Ballage, who tied the NCAA single-game record with eight touchdowns against Texas Tech. But I'd be a week late.
It's about time Florida State running back Dalvin Cook had a big game, and he's probably getting sick of hearing people rave about freshman quarterback Deondre Francois.
Axelrod
This is the week Alabama's Bo Scarbrough makes himself known to the rest of the nation.
Thus far, Damien Harris has been shouldering the load for the Crimson Tide, and to a degree, Nick Saban has been holding Scarbrough back. That could change Saturday for a player who appears to have all of the makings of being the next great Alabama back.
Couch
If we're going on public perception, the answer is Lamar Jackson, who will go from the highlight-film guy to something more solid with a win over Florida State. But while it might depend on your definition of "breakout," it feels as if this is a moment for Bobby Petrino in the rebuilding of his name.
Maybe that makes this a re-breakout for him? Or a break-back-in? Note: It's a little scary how many of my answers this week are based on my belief that Louisville will upset Florida State. If FSU wins, the dominoes will fall on all of my answers.
Felder
Mike Weber.
The Buckeyes' new face at running back has to put together a big game to help soften up the Oklahoma defense and gobble up yardage while doing it. Working with J.T. Barrett on inverted veers and zone reads, Weber has a chance to be a stud on the big stage.
He'll put up 125-plus yards, and he'll be the hoss they ride to a 3-0 record.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
