Fantasy Football Week 14: Weekly Fantasy Trends Report

Thirteen weeks of fantasy football competition have led to this pivotal first weekend of the playoffs. We're tasked with making significant decisions in these win-or-go-home matchups which often come down to key lineup dilemmas.

Which defenses are ideal for streaming for Week 14? Is leaning on Andy Dalton and loading up on the Cincinnati Bengals' offense a rewarding path to fantasy production? 

We answer these queries and focus on the key trends and matchup metrics at our disposal for this first weekend of the fantasy playoffs. Join us in canvassing the league, and as always, feel free to post your lineup questions and counsel in the comments below.

Ladarius Green Is an Elite Waiver-Wire Acquisition for the Fantasy Playoffs

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The Pittsburgh Steelers' passing offense has been highly concentrated on wideout Antonio Brown and tailback Le'Veon Bell for much of the season. Since Week 4, when Bell rejoined the roster from suspension, he's consumed 22.9 percent of the team's targets, while Brown has netted a 25.9 percent stake.

To put this volume in context, Brown is second in the league in receptions (64), while Bell is third in the NFL in catches (63) over this sample. 

Pittsburgh has been seeking an enduring tertiary target for much of the season, but vertical threat Sammie Coates has caught only 44.4 percent of his targets, and this rate dips to an astoundingly low 7.1 percent since Week 6. Slot maven Eli Rogers has averaged just 3.5 receptions since Week 6 and thus remains merely a complementary asset.

Enter tight end Ladarius Green. Sidelined for the first nine weeks of the campaign, Green played just 20 snaps in his first two games for the Steelers this season, per Pro Football Focus, but has played on 26 and 48 percent of the team's offensive snaps over the past two games, respectively.

More importantly for fantasy purposes, Green has emerged as the team's valuable third contributor in the passing phase, consuming a team-high 24.6 percent of the team's targets over the past two games.

Ben Roethlisberger has completed five passes thrown at least 15 yards downfield to Green over the past two weeks, which is significant since he's completed four such targets to all other tight ends over the past two seasons.

As a key big-play threat between the painted numbers, we find intriguing upside for Green, as he's owned in just 34.5 percent of ESPN leagues. It also helps to consider that the Bills have yielded 13.96 yards per catch to tight ends this season, most in the NFL.

Streaming Green in the fantasy playoffs could prove rewarding for those seeking help at this shallow position.

Redskins Receivers Angled for Strong Games in South Philly

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LANDOVER, MD - NOVEMBER 13: Wide receiver Pierre Garcon #88 of the Washington Redskins makes a catch while cornerback Mackensie Alexander #20 of the Minnesota Vikings defends in the fourth quarter at FedExField on November 13, 2016 in Landover, Maryland.

The Washington Redskins have produced 6.41 yards per play this season, second only to the Atlanta Falcons. The Redskins are averaging 309.1 passing yards per game, second only to the New Orleans Saints on the season.

The premise has been established that Washington is an elite offense, so we'll want to leverage shares of this offense against a Philadelphia Eagles team that was just drubbed by the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13. 

Talented tight end Jordan Reed returned to practice and took part in individual drills on Wednesday as he recovers from a shoulder injury that sidelined him last week, per ESPN's John Keim. The return of Reed would prove pivotal for his investors, while we're also intrigued by the team's triumvirate of receivers.

Since Week 10, Washington's DeSean Jackson ranks 11th among receivers in fantasy points per game in ESPN standard leagues with 11, while Jamison Crowder is 12th at the position with 10.75 per game. Shifting to points-per-reception formats, Pierre Garcon is 19th in fantasy points per game over the past month.

Garcon is specifically relevant for fantasy purposes, since he's the most widely available asset of these three receivers—owned in just 44.1 percent of ESPN leagues. With 20.9 percent of the team's targets since Week 10, the highest rate on the team over this sample, Garcon is a viable streaming receiver against a Philly defense that has ceded 191.3 yards per game to receivers, second-most in the NFL and the highest allowance in the NFC.

Kenny Britt Quietly Enjoying Valuable Production for Los Angeles

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The Atlanta Falcons have allowed 2.48 points per drive this season, the most in the NFL. Yes, even more than the Cleveland Browns, albeit by .01 points per drive. 

This signals that we might want to find a viable path to facing Atlanta's defense from a fantasy perspective. The Los Angeles Rams are an entirely suspect offense, as they've averaged the fewest points per drive this season, but with such an inviting matchup against the Falcons, shares of big-play receiver Kenny Britt could prove rewarding.

Available in nearly 40 percent of ESPN leagues, Britt is 21st in fantasy points per game among wideouts in ESPN leagues since Week 10 with 9.25 per game. Fueling this fantasy success is the fact that Britt has consumed 27.7 percent of the team's target market over the past four games, while no other player on the offense has more than a 17 percent share over this span.

As home underdogs to the most productive per-play offense in the league, the game script could prove pass-happy for the Rams as they seek to keep pace with a superior visiting offense. A pass-driven agenda supports real interest in Britt as a streaming option in season-long leagues and a flier in daily fantasy.

Finding Value in New England's Adaptive Offense

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From Week 5 to Week 10, Tom Brady targeted tight ends on 35.4 percent of his passing attempts for 48.1 percent of his passing yardage. Since a season-ending injury to Rob Gronkowski, Brady has targeted tight ends on just 10 percent of his attempts for just 4.8 percent of the team's production in the air.

With the New England Patriots' adaptive offense always willing to augment their roster's abilities, the Patriots have shifted to focusing on their receiving talent in the wake of Gronk's injury. Since Week 11, Julian Edelman and rising rookie Malcolm Mitchell have drawn 46.9 percent of Brady's attempts en route to 57.9 percent of the team's receiving yardage over this stretch.

Mitchell is owned in just 35.9 percent of ESPN leagues and has a team-high 43 percent of the Patriots' receiving touchdowns over the past three games. The rookie has enjoyed a robust catch rate of 77.3 percent over the past three games.

A prime-time Monday night meeting with a Baltimore Ravens secondary that has ceded 1.5 receiving scores per game to wideouts—most in the AFC—Mitchell's uptick in usage suggests he delivers a rare blend of cost certainty and upside for those seeking help at receiver in the fantasy playoffs.

Loading Up on the Cincinnati Offense to Start the Fantasy Playoffs

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Even sans superstar wideout A.J. Green and dynamic dual-threat tailback Giovani Bernard, Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals' offense proved potent in Week 13 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

As Pro Football Focus revealed:

"

Dalton was very effective throwing to every part of the field against the Eagles secondary, but was especially successful on his deep throws. He completed five of six passes that were targeted more than 20 yards downfield, including one for a touchdown. Dalton’s QB rating without any pressure was 134.1, but even when he was under pressure it was still a very impressive 116.7.

"

The pressure note is particularly revealing for Dalton's prospects this week in Cleveland, as the Browns have pressured opposing passers on just 22.2 percent of opposing dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Browns have also surrendered 2.64 points per drive since Week 4, the most in the NFL. Cleveland has yielded a touchdown on 33 percent of opposing drives over this sample, a sizable margin from the league-average allowance of 21.5 percent since Week 4.

These matchup metrics suggest we'll want to stream Dalton in deeper leagues and invest in him at reasonable pricing in daily fantasy competition. We'll also want to load up on tailback Jeremy Hill, as he netted a season-high 57.8 percent of the team's offensive plays last week and a season-high 23 rushes, per PFF. Hill tallied 192 yards from scrimmage against the Browns in Week 7.

Wideout Brandon LaFell is also a matchup-driven asset to consider for Week 14, as he's the team's key downfield threat with Green sidelined, evidenced by a team-high 10.4 air yards per target over the past three games. LaFell is rostered in only 21.6 percent of ESPN leagues as of Wednesday night.

Facing the Browns can prove profitable for fantasy owners, thus our interest in the Bengals this week.

Key Streaming Defenses for Week 14 in Fantasy Football

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Streaming is a strategy that involves identifying potentially productive commodities from the waiver wire or in free agency in fantasy leagues. As the fantasy postseason kicks off in most leagues in Week 14, we often find the wire is picked clean when it comes to viable offensive assets, but we continue to live the stream when it comes to defenses.

With this in mind, let's canvass ESPN fantasy leagues for D/ST (defense and special teams) units available in at least 80 percent of leagues that could prove productive this week.

Atlanta Falcons (Owned in 17.3 percent of ESPN leagues)

The Falcons have been generous on defense this season. This is an understatement, as Atlanta has ceded the most points per drive to opponents this season.

That said, we still have interest in streaming this defense, given a choice matchup with raw rookie signal-caller Jared Goff and the listless Los Angeles Rams offense.

As a counter to Atlanta's poor defensive rates, the Rams have produced just 1.22 points per drive on offense this season, lowest in the NFL. Defenses facing the Rams have averaged 9.17 fantasy points this season, most in the league and 70.7 percent higher than the league average.

With Goff at the helm of a languid offense prone to affording opponents above-average fantasy production, Atlanta is a worthy streaming option in deeper fantasy formats.

Tennessee Titans (16.9) 

The Denver Broncos' offense has averaged just 1.43 points per drive since Week 11 and has produced the 12th-fewest passing yards per game over the past three weeks. The Titans have the fifth-highest blitz rate in the league, and with this game claiming one of the lowest implied point totals of the slate, per Odds Shark, Tennessee is a viable defensive option this week.

Washington Redskins (6.4) 

The Philadelphia Eagles have turned the ball over on 16 percent of their drives since the start of Week 4, the highest rate in the NFC and second in the NFL over this span. The Eagles have produced just 1.54 points per drive over this sample, rated 24th in the league. With rookie signal-caller Carson Wentz regressing, shares of this Washington defense could prove rewarding.

Data such as target share, drive rates, defensive allowance stats and fantasy production sourced from an ESPN database.