Fantasy Football Long-Term Forecast: Matt Camp's Week 11 Futures Report
With November more than halfway over, the trade deadline in fantasy football has either passed or comes up in the next week. NFL teams haven’t quite reached evaluation mode, but you may already be there when it comes to assessing your fantasy roster.
For those in redraft leagues, trades may center on contending teams trying to acquire top talent from the basement-dwellers looking for future draft picks. Or if you’re in a keeper league, it could mean trading someone like Antonio Brown in the final year of keeper eligibility to get a younger, but still developing player like Michael Thomas to have for the next three years.
Those in dynasty leagues never stop assessing their teams because the end of this season doesn’t mean the end of the road. I, like many others in dynasty leagues, am trying to figure out what Kenneth Dixon’s value is for the rest of the season and in the future. Will the Baltimore Ravens feature him more down the stretch or will he have to wait until 2017 for his first, true chance at the starting job?
No matter what format you play in, take a step back to decide where your roster is strong, where it needs work and who are the cornerstones of your team. I’ll try to be a guide as it pertains to the rookies and second-year players.
Late-Week Waiver Wire
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Earlier in the week, I hit on the top options from the waiver wire, but with the news and injury information we’ve received since, here are a few useful players you can still get to help you this weekend.
Charles Clay, BUF
Percent Owned: ESPN – 13.8, Yahoo – 12.0
Clay is widely available because he hasn’t been useful for fantasy in nearly a month. However, his latest performances shouldn’t totally scare you away from taking him off the waiver wire. Opportunity and matchup are the key factors working in his favor for Week 11.
The Buffalo Bills head to Cincinnati to face the Bengals this weekend. In recent years, the Bengals defense was one to avoid, but that’s not the case this year, especially as it relates to the tight end position. Over the last four weeks, no team has given up more fantasy points to tight ends than the Bengals. Tight ends have put up at least eight receptions, 70 yards and a touchdown against the Bengals in three of their last four games.
The Bills are so short on talent in their receiving corps that Percy Harvin could be stepping into a bigger role less than a month after rejoining the team. Based on targets, Clay is the second-most active receiver behind Robert Woods. If you’re going off opportunity and matchup, Clay is worth a look for Week 11.
Jack Doyle, IND
Percent Owned: ESPN – 30.9, Yahoo – 35.0
Based on the ownership numbers, Dwayne Allen’s presence in the Colts lineup might be scaring off anyone thinking about Doyle. Allen shouldn’t scare anyone.
If you go by the team’s last game before its Week 10 bye, both Allen and Doyle were active, but it was Doyle who led the way with five receptions for 61 yards on nine targets. Meanwhile, Allen had just a single catch for 15 yards on two targets. Doyle also out-snapped him 74-65 percent.
This week, Doyle gets his second crack at the Tennessee Titans. Back in Week 7, he got them for nine receptions, 78 yards and one touchdown on 10 targets. The Titans gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends in the last four weeks. This could be a potential fantasy bonanza, so get a piece of the action with Doyle.
Pierre Garcon, WAS
Percent Owned: ESPN – 29.3, Yahoo – 21.0
Over the last two games, Garcon has 12 receptions for 148 yards on 17 targets. He posted double-digit fantasy points in PPR formats in four of his last five games. That makes him a reliable WR3/flex play for the last month, and that should continue this weekend when the Washington Redskins host the Green Bay Packers.
Green Bay’s defense has been average against fantasy wide receivers over the last month. They gave up at least 165 yards to wide receivers in three of their last five games. Wide receivers scored nine touchdowns in that five-game span. Garcon should get a piece of that, especially if DeSean Jackson (shoulder) has to sit out once again.
Quarterbacks
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Clear Starting Options
Dak Prescott, DAL
Prescott played so well last week in a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers that he got Tony Romo to deliver what amounted to a concession speech about the starting job for the Dallas Cowboys. As Romo admitted, the job clearly belongs to Prescott, and with the way he’s played over the first 10 weeks, no one should be a threat to the starting job. The endorsement from Romo should kill any talk of Prescott looking over his shoulder.
After coming through in an easy matchup with the Cleveland Browns back in Week 9, Prescott saw a big jump in the level of competition when he faced the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week. Prescott answered the challenge by completing 22 of 32 pass attempts for 319 yards and two touchdowns in the victory. It won’t get any easier on Sunday, when Prescott and the Cowboys take on an underrated Baltimore Ravens defense.
Short-Term Fill-Ins/Streamers
Carson Wentz, PHI
Despite attempting 36 passes in Week 10, Wentz didn’t really seem like he was playing a huge role in the offense in the team’s win over the Atlanta Falcons. He completed 25 of those 36 attempts for 231 yards without a touchdown or an interception and he ran for 10 yards. Instead of getting into a shootout with Atlanta, the Eagles ran 34 times with Ryan Mathews leading the way and they easily won the time of possession battle.
Will they be able to enact the same game plan this weekend in Seattle? While their reputation is still strong, the Seahawks have had their struggles as a defense. Still, they are a very talented unit, and with the game in Seattle, it’s about as tough of a test as you can get for a rookie quarterback. Fading Wentz is a good idea, but keep an eye on his performance since it may tell you a little more about his standing the rest of the way.
Trevor Siemian/Paxton Lynch, DEN
The Denver Broncos enter their Week 11 bye with a shaky feeling about their quarterback situation. Siemian threw for 258 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions on 25-of-40 passing against the New Orleans Saints in a tight Week 9 win on the road. He's completed more than 60 percent of his passes just one time in the last five games.
Does that mean they’re any closer to turning to Lynch after the bye or sometime soon? At 7-3, probably not, and the schedule may have something to do with it. They face the Kansas City Chiefs in Denver after the bye and again in Week 16. They also take on the New England Patriots in Week 15. Throwing Lynch back out there after how poorly he played in Week 5 against the Atlanta Falcons seems like a bad idea. Neither QB has much fantasy value for the rest of this season.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Jared Goff, LA
After 10 weeks, the Rams finally decided to name Goff the starter against the Miami Dolphins, as Chris Mortensen of ESPN broke earlier this week. Is Goff ready? He may or may not be, but the Rams know they aren’t going anywhere this season. Case Keenum’s play had dipped considerably, making the switch to Goff seem justified. He’ll be an interesting player to study for the rest of the regular season.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Jimmy Garoppolo, NE
With Tom Brady and the New England offense rolling, Garoppolo is nothing more than a backup. While he has shown the ability to handle the starting job in the absence of Brady, he has no fantasy value until Brady is completely out of the way.
Running Backs
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Clear Starting Options
Jay Ajayi, MIA
Ajayi’s hot streak came to a close last week in San Diego when the Dolphins were able to ride their defense to a win over the Chargers. Ajayi was looking for his fourth-straight 100-yard rushing effort, but he fell short with 79 yards on 19 carries. Unfortunately, he didn’t make up for the dip in rushing numbers with an active role in the passing game, as he wound up with a single catch for a yard on his only target.
Hopefully, Ajayi will be able to start a new streak this weekend in Los Angeles in a matchup with the Rams. Miami’s offense is all about Ajayi and that won’t change in Week 11. He remains a must-start for fantasy.
Jordan Howard, CHI
Howard tallied his fourth 100-yard rushing effort of the season in Week 10, but the bigger story was the status of his ankle or Achilles, although he denied any problems. Fast-forward to practices this week and Howard’s been putting in the normal work, so the injury isn’t a problem.
According to Dan Wiederer and Rich Campbell of the Chicago Tribune, Howard admitted he was “tight” early in the second half before injuring his Achilles “a little bit at the end.” Howard isn’t even on the injury report, so be sure to start him with confidence against the New York Giants on Sunday.
Devontae Booker, DEN
For those worried about Booker as it related to Kapri Bibbs, those concerns should have disappeared following Week 10. While Bibbs saw a jump in snaps (22 percent, up from 15 percent) and touches (seven, up from three), he didn’t make any fantasy impact and didn’t really steal any important touches from Booker. In fact, Booker had a season-high 24 carries, but he managed just 76 yards and tacked on two receptions for 12 yards on two targets.
Booker is getting more than enough touches to be a regular fantasy starter, but he’s in more of the RB2 category than the RB1 group, although that’s not really a bad thing.
Rob Kelley, WAS
Kelley justified all the positivity thrown his way by head coach Jay Gruden by rushing for 97 yards on 22 carries in a win over the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10. With Matt Jones not even on the active game-day roster, the Redskins put their full faith in Kelley and he rewarded their confidence with a strong performance.
That gives you enough reason to cut Jones from your fantasy rosters. It should also make Kelley a decent RB2 just based on opportunity alone. He’ll try to get the run game going against the tough run defense of the Green Bay Packers.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Kenneth Dixon, BAL
Are we getting closer to Dixon leading the way for the Baltimore Ravens? If you’re banking on him taking over in their backfield, expectations are probably too high. Terrance West has done enough to stay in the mix, which limits Dixon’s chances of breaking out.
In the Week 10 win over the Cleveland Browns, West still led the way with 41 percent of the snaps, but Dixon’s rose again to 32 percent. However, it was Dixon who led the way with 80 total yards on six rushes and five receptions. West had 21 carries for just 65 yards and one reception for 12 yards. Dixon outperformed West for the first time this season. Hopefully, there’s more of that to come, but it may not be enough to ever put West in the rearview mirror.
Paul Perkins, NYG
Perkins seems to be on a similar path to Dixon, although his road is a little tougher. Since he’s not putting up big numbers (nine carries, 31 yards in Week 10) and veteran Rashad Jennings outplayed him last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, Perkins is running out of time to turn into a reliable fantasy contributor, and he won’t have an easy time getting anything going against a solid Chicago Bears run defense this week.
Ty Montgomery, GB
The excitement for Montgomery has worn off and it’s not even for a great reason. With James Starks back in the mix last week, he played 71 percent of the snaps with seven carries for 31 yards and three receptions on four targets for 11 yards, including a 13-yard touchdown. Montgomery saw just 28 percent of the snaps with two receptions for 11 yards on two targets and nine yards on three carries.
As if the presence of Starks wasn’t enough, the Packers claimed Christine Michael off waivers from the Seattle Seahawks. It adds another useful, but far from spectacular body to a backfield that’s getting crowded and annoying for fantasy. Unless Montgomery starts playing more of a unique, hybrid role, his battle for touches with Starks and/or Michael won’t be worth a roster spot on your fantasy team.
DeAndre Washington/Jalen Richard, OAK
Before the Week 10 bye, Washington and Richard were afterthoughts in the offense because Latavius Murray got the spotlight in a win over the Denver Broncos. He ran for 114 yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries. Meanwhile, Washington had just 35 yards on 10 carries and Richard rushed for 62 yards on eight carries with two receptions for 10 yards on three targets.
Murray played just 51 percent of the snaps compared to 22 percent for Richard and 20 percent for Washington. Neither Washington nor Richard can be used with confidence for fantasy purposes until further notice.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Dwayne Washington, DET
Washington’s role before the Week 10 bye was in flux. He was a healthy scratch in Week 8, but he was back in Week 9 against the Minnesota Vikings. He had just 26 yards on 10 carries. It’s Theo Riddick in Detroit’s backfield and no one else matters.
Cameron Artis-Payne, CAR
As long as Jonathan Stewart is healthy, Artis-Payne means nothing for fantasy or to the Carolina Panthers for that matter. He’s been a healthy scratch for the last five games.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Kenyan Drake, MIA
Drake is behind both Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams in Miami’s backfield, so he’s useless for fantasy and that won’t be changing anytime soon in 2016. Luckily, they don't need him to be a major contributor this season, so the rookie, who was a third-round pick, can continue to develop with the hope he plays a bigger role next year.
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Wide Receivers
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Clear Starting Options
Michael Thomas, NO
Week 9 was a major letdown for Thomas, but not necessarily for the reason that was expected heading into the game with the Denver Broncos. Taking on Denver’s pass defense is always tough, so expectations weren’t as high for Thomas. Unfortunately, he managed to squander the opportunities he got by fumbling twice. He finished with four receptions for 40 yards on six targets.
While he didn’t fumble in Thursday’s game against the Carolina Panthers, his numbers didn’t improve much, with just five receptions for 68 yards on five targets. Thomas has been good enough all season to let a couple of underwhelming performances go, as long as he bounces back in Week 12 when the Los Angeles Rams visit New Orleans.
Jamison Crowder, WAS
Crowder’s hot streak continued in Week 10 despite a matchup with one of the better defenses in the Minnesota Vikings. He caught just four of six targets for 37 yards, but found the end zone for the third time in four games. He now has four straight games with at least 13 fantasy points in PPR formats. As DeSean Jackson struggles to come back from a shoulder injury, Crowder is clearly the top wide receiver in Washington.
Tyrell Williams, SD
Much like Crowder in Washington, Williams has been able to carve out the top spot in San Diego’s wide receiver group because of an injury and his performance. With Travis Benjamin slowed by a knee issue, Williams caught five of his 11 targets for 125 yards and a score last week in a loss to the Miami Dolphins.
He has three 100-yard games and three touchdowns in the last six games. Williams leads the team in targets (71), receptions (43), yards (720) and yards per catch (16.7). He belongs in your lineup without question after the Week 11 bye.
Eli Rogers, PIT
Rogers, not Sammie Coates, has carved out a role as the No. 2 fantasy wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers over the last two weeks. He posted 10 receptions for 145 yards and a touchdown on 15 targets against the Cowboys and Ravens. Against Dallas, he played 85 percent of the time, which was a season high for snaps.
With Coates still complaining about hand issues, according to Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Rogers can lock himself into that No. 2 spot behind Antonio Brown, which is a pretty good place to be on a pass-happy team. Rogers will have a great chance to do so in a fantastic matchup with the Cleveland Browns.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Cameron Meredith, CHI
Now that we know Alshon Jeffery won’t play that next four games due to his PED suspension, can Meredith return to fantasy relevance?
In the two games with Jay Cutler back as the starter, Meredith has four targets and two catches for 74 yards, including a 50-yard touchdown on a Hail Mary pass in Week 10. That’s not inspiring a lot of confidence in his chance of coming through, but other than Eddie Royal and Zach Miller, the Bears don’t have anyone else to go to in the receiving corps. We’re in wait-and-see mode with Meredith for fantasy.
Sammie Coates, PIT
Coates has exactly one reception on 11 targets in the last four games. As I mentioned earlier, his hand remains a problem and Rogers continues to pull away. If Coates has a chance to get back on track, he could do it on Sunday in Cleveland against the Browns, but that doesn’t mean you should be rushing to get him in your lineup. He has a lot to prove.
Corey Coleman, CLE
Since returning from his broken hand in Week 8, Coleman caught three of seven targets for 41 yards in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys and three receptions for 17 yards on five targets in last week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. He'll be a tough player to get a read on as long as the Browns continue to make changes at the quarterback position.
DeVante Parker, MIA
Parker was a fantasy ghost for more than a month until last week when he had five receptions for 103 yards on eight targets in a win over the San Diego Chargers. Before last week, Parker topped 30 yards just once in his previous five games. The flash of life was a welcomed sight, but Parker needs to build up a lot more than just one game to be considered a reliable fantasy option.
Potential Contributors Later in the Season
Will Fuller, HOU
Fuller’s fantasy value has been a free fall after the first month of the season thanks to a combination of poor play from Brock Osweiler and ongoing leg issues. He has just six receptions for 49 yards on 17 targets in the last five games. Fuller was inactive last week, but he has been through limited practice this week. He has no value for fantasy.
Breshad Perriman, BAL
Perriman showed off his skill set on a great 27-yard touchdown reception from Joe Flacco during last week’s win over the Cleveland Browns. He may not give you much more than the three receptions for 64 yards he had last week, so he remains a boom-or-bust player and hasn’t had enough booms to justify a roster spot unless you’re in a very deep league.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Tajae Sharpe, TEN
Sharpe needed 10 games, but he finally made it into the end zone in last week’s impressive victory against the Green Bay Packers. Sharpe saw just four targets, but he caught three of them for 68 yards including the 33-yard touchdown. His Week 10 performance was only the second time this season he had double-digit fantasy points in a PPR format. Obviously, he’s not someone you can trust to even roster right now.
Tyler Boyd, CIN
In the three games since Tyler Eifert returned from his ankle injury, Boyd had eight receptions for 53 yards on 14 targets. The rookie could make an impact down the road, but he has no value in 2016 barring an injury or two.
Devin Funchess, CAR
Funchess had another random touchdown catch in Week 10, but he failed to follow up on that with anything meaningful in Week 11. Despite a nice matchup with the New Orleans Saints, the second-year wide receiver caught just two of seven targets for 32 yards. He’s been a bust more than halfway though the 2016 season.
Nelson Agholor, PHI
Only three times this season has Agholor posted four receptions and more than 40 yards. That didn’t happen against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10, as he wound up with just seven yards on two receptions with five targets. You can resume ignoring Agholor for fantasy.
Laquon Treadwell, MIN
Treadwell was inactive in Week 10 and has just one reception on one target for the season. He has no role in fantasy or reality.
Kevin White, CHI
White is eligible to return from the injured reserve in Week 13, but he isn’t worth stashing. Since the Bears are well out of the playoff picture by that point, it’s probably another lost season for White.
Tight Ends
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Clear Starting Options
None of note.
Desperation Plays/Short-Term Fill-Ins
Hunter Henry, SD
After sitting out Week 9 with a knee injury, Henry returned to action against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10. He turned two targets into two receptions for 11 yards including a seven-yard touchdown. He played a season-low 34 percent of the snaps, while Antonio Gates was on the field for 75 percent of the snaps with four receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown in his third straight game.
Henry has plenty of talent, but his injury opened the door for Gates to take back his lead tight end role for the Chargers. That means the rookie is likely just a deep reach play until he starts putting up consistent numbers.
Austin Hooper, ATL
Hooper wasn’t able to follow up the first game without Jacob Tamme with a second solid performance. After catching three of six targets for 46 yards and a score against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 9, Hooper had just one reception for eight yards on three targets in Week 10. The Falcons are on bye in Week 11, but Tamme isn’t a lock to be back with his shoulder issues.
Jesse James, PIT
Ladarius Green’s debut with the Pittsburgh Steelers finally took place in Week 10, so James’ role in the offense might be in danger. Even though James played more snaps than Green (70 percent-16 percent), his four receptions for 59 yards on four targets didn’t give him much of an edge over Green’s three receptions for 30 yards on four targets. Green should see an uptick in snaps this week, which is bad news for James.
Long-Term Projects/Not Ready for 2016
Clive Walford, OAK
Despite playing for one of the better offenses in the league, Walford's made no impact in fantasy or reality this season. Other than his six catches for 50 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, Walford hasn't had any other games with at least four receptions or at least 35 yards. And that touchdown is his only trip to the end zone this season.
Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. Snap counts provided by Pro Football Focus. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Friday morning.
Do you have a fantasy football question? Follow @TheMattCamp
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