Fantasy Football Week 1: Matt Camp's Weekly Preview

We made it. 

Fantasy football drafts are over (unless you’re waiting until the last minute), NFL preseason games are behind us, and games that count start up in just two days. 

As the focus shifts to the 2016 regular season starting Thursday, so does mine in helping all of you. Every Tuesday, you’ll get my positional preview and early-week thoughts on the key matchups. 

This will primarily be an article looking at the best options on the waiver wire, but I’ll also give you some hints as to what my Wednesday Big Board will look like by highlighting players with helpful matchups or those with concerns. I’ll be limiting the waiver-wire options to those owned in less than 60 percent of ESPN or Yahoo leagues.

At first glance, I didn’t expect a busy waiver wire heading into Week 1 other than some quarterback and defense streamers, yet running back already has a few names who can make a big impact this week, specifically Spencer Ware of the Kansas City Chiefs. As I said in the preseason, be prepared to work the waiver wire at running back all season, and that includes Week 1.

Quarterbacks

Elsa/Getty Images

Alex Smith

Waiver Wire 

Alex Smith, KC

Percent Owned: ESPN – 20.6, Yahoo – 21

Whether you waited for your QB or are streaming him on a weekly basis, Smith has to catch your attention in the season opener. With a home matchup Sunday against a rebuilding San Diego Chargers defense, the Chiefs signal-caller is worth a look this week. 

With head coach Andy Reid revealing running back Jamaal Charles looks like "a stretch" to play Week 1, per BJ Kissel of the team's official website, the Chiefs have to rely on Spencer Ware to lead the way. Even though they’ve likely been preparing for that possibility for weeks, it still takes a dynamic player out of their lineup. That could mean a little more volume in the passing game for Smith. 

Week 1 Projections: 255-265 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 35 rushing yards

Dak Prescott, DAL

Percent Owned: ESPN – 47.3, Yahoo – 52

The fairly high ownership numbers for Prescott don’t surprise me at all, and they’re likely to rise throughout the week, with good reason. His regular-season debut comes at home against the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon, which is not a bad matchup. 

Now, the Giants added Olivier Vernon to their defensive line and Janoris Jenkins and Eli Apple to their secondary, all of whom are big upgrades. However, preparing for Prescott won’t be easy because he has such a small sample size, and what we did see of him in the preseason was impressive. The Giants have to respect rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott, so if the Cowboys run some read-option, as they did in the preseason, Prescott can boost his numbers with his legs. 

Week 1 Projections: 235-245 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 45 rushing yards

The Matchup Men

As a sneak preview of my weekly rankings, these are the players whose matchups help or hurt them. I’ll provide additional analysis once projections are complete for Wednesday’s Big Board.

Matchup Bumps

Derek Carr, OAK (at NO)

Matthew Stafford, DET (at IND)

Jameis Winston, TB (at ATL)

Matchup Concerns

Cam Newton, CAR (at DEN)

Philip Rivers, SD (at KC)

Marcus Mariota, TEN (vs. MIN)

Running Backs

John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

Spencer Ware is clearly at the top of the waiver wire.

Waiver Wire

Spencer Ware, KC

Percent Owned: ESPN – 59.7, Yahoo – 62

The assumption that Kansas City would insert Jamaal Charles right back into the starting job with a heavy workload was always ridiculous, yet I saw Charles consistently drafted as a top-eight fantasy running back in the second round. With Charles coming off a second torn ACL, the Chiefs had every reason to ease him back. But as we learned over the last week, it hasn’t been a choice but a forced reality. 

According to Terez A. Paylor of the Kansas City Star, Charles has practiced "mainly with the reserves" and hasn’t been hit yet, which explains why Coach Reid doesn’t expect him to play Sunday against the Chargers. That’s provided a big boost to Ware, especially in a nice matchup with San Diego. Finding a lead back after your draft but before the season begins is rare, so Ware is atop the waiver wire this week. 

Week 1 Projection: 18 carries, 80 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, three receptions, 21 receiving yards

Christine Michael, SEA

Percent Owned: ESPN – 49.4, Yahoo - 50

Something clicked with Michael in the preseason, and it happened at the perfect time since he got a big spotlight with Thomas Rawls sidelined during his recovery from an ankle injury. Michael took advantage of his opportunities and, for the first time in his career, looks like someone who can contribute on a consistent basis.

The 25-year-old was so good in Rawls’ preseason absence that it’s fair to think he’s earned a role as more than just a backup. His speed and explosion through holes would provide a nice change of pace to Rawls’ more physical style, especially since Rawls hasn’t played since last year. Seattle may ramp up its passing attack, but it will still have an active rushing attack. Michael should get chances against a Miami Dolphins run defense with a lot to prove after giving up the most fantasy points to running backs in 2015. 

Week 1 Projection: 12 carries, 60 rushing yards, two receptions, 18 receiving yards

James White, NE

Percent Owned: ESPN – 40.9, Yahoo - 38

White’s stock rose when complications with Dion Lewis' knee injury forced the Patriots to put him on the PUP list to start the season. Last year, White was the No. 6 running back in fantasy points in points-per-reception leagues over the final eight games of the season, which came mostly in Lewis’ absence.

New England’s backfield is never easy to predict, yet it makes sense for him to play a big role as a security blanket for third-year quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo early in the season. The Patriots offensive line is a concern, and Garoppolo, who's making his first regular-season start Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals, may not have time to take many deep shots, meaning White should be an active target in the passing game. 

Week 1 Projection: Four carries, 15 rushing yards, six receptions, 45 receiving yards

The Matchup Men

Matchup Bumps

Devonta Freeman, ATL (vs. TB)

Doug Martin, TB (at ATL)

Latavius Murray, OAK (at NO)

Spencer Ware, KC (vs. SD)

Ryan Mathews, PHI (vs. CLE)

DeAngelo Williams, PIT (at WAS)

Matchup Concerns

Mark Ingram, NO (vs. OAK)

C.J. Anderson, DEN (vs. CAR)

Carlos Hyde, SF (vs. LA)

Melvin Gordon, SD (vs. KC)

Wide Receivers

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

The Tajae Sharpe buzz picked up at the end of August, so scoop him up if you can.

Waiver Wire

Tajae Sharpe, TEN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 39.3, Yahoo – 41

The buzz around Sharpe picked up significantly as the preseason went on, yet he’s still available in more than 60 percent of ESPN and Yahoo leagues, which is baffling. Following the trade of Dorial Green-Beckham, Sharpe has been locked into a starting role and has been receiving heaps of praise from coaches, reporters and even Marcus Mariota himself. 

According to Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com, Mariota said Sharpe "makes it easy" and is a "versatile athlete." Sharpe’s primary competition for targets is tight end Delanie Walker, and the rest of the wide receiving corps includes veterans Rishard Matthews, Harry Douglas, Andre Johnson and Kendall Wright. Sharpe may not have an easy time against the Vikings this weekend, but he’s still worth grabbing as the top wide receiver in Tennessee. 

Week 1 Projection: Six receptions, 77 receiving yards

Will Fuller, HOU

Percent Owned: ESPN – 56.8, Yahoo - 46

Preseason performance can settle lineup decisions and position battles that result in cuts. Fuller entered his rookie preseason behind DeAndre Hopkins with veteran Cecil Shorts and fellow rookie Braxton Miller looking to win the starting job opposite Hopkins. 

Shorts was the favorite to win the job, at least coming out of August. But Fuller’s performance was so good that he won the competition, and Shorts became expendable. While he needs to improve his hands, Fuller flashed enough big-play ability to consider rostering, especially with opponents keying in on Hopkins. 

Week 1 Projection: Four receptions, 68 receiving yards

Tyler Boyd, CIN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 32.3, Yahoo – 18

Boyd is considered more of a fantasy long shot coming out of the preseason, but it may be a matter of time before he finds his way into the starting lineup along with A.J. Green. He’ll enter the season behind Green and veteran Brandon LaFell on the depth chart. 

With tight end Tyler Eifert likely out multiple weeks to start the season, Boyd may get increased opportunities in three-wide sets. If he can take advantage of those chances, it may earn him more playing time, and I don’t think he has that far to go to jump LaFell as the team’s No. 2 wide receiver. Keep an eye on him in the opener. Andy Dalton may look his way more if Green has trouble with Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis. 

Week 1 Projection: Four receptions, 54 receiving yards

The Matchup Men 

Matchup Bumps

Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree, OAK (at NO)

DeSean Jackson, WAS (vs. PIT)

Sammy Watkins, BUF (at BAL)

Julio Jones, ATL (vs. TB)

Golden Tate/Marvin Jones, DET (at IND)

Matchup Concerns

Kelvin Benjamin, CAR (at DEN)

Jarvis Landry, MIA (at SEA)

Julian Edelman, NE (at ARI)

Tight Ends

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Jared Cook's availability depends on your league host.

Waiver Wire

Jared Cook, GB

Percent Owned: ESPN – 45.8, Yahoo – 72

As you can see, those in ESPN leagues have a better chance of grabbing Cook than those in Yahoo leagues, but I wanted to make sure I mentioned him in case he’s available regardless of which site hosts your league. I noticed the buzz he generated toward the end of the preseason translated into some late-round selections in drafts. 

He’s burned fantasy players in the past, but you cannot argue the fact that he’s playing with the best quarterback of his career in Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay has a pair of big-time wide receivers in Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, but the former will see his first game action since last August when he takes the field Sunday in Jacksonville against the Jaguars. 

Cook could quickly establish himself as the third option in a formidable passing game against a Jaguars pass defense that gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends last season and still looks vulnerable to the position.

Week 1 Projection: Five receptions, 62 receiving yards

Clive Walford, OAK

Percent Owned ESPN – 21.1, Yahoo - 15

With a season under his belt in a promising offense, Walford has been tabbed as a possible breakout candidate this season. However, a quiet preseason muted that sleeper talk, and as a result, he’s available in more than 80 percent of both ESPN and Yahoo leagues.

Walford had just one reception in three preseason games, so those looking for him to back up the hype didn’t get it and likely looked elsewhere for a backup tight end or late-round lottery ticket. This would be a good time to take advantage of an oversight. By that I mean Walford has the Saints in the season opener, and they gave up the most fantasy points to tight ends in 2015. They’re still rebuilding and won’t be ready for Oakland’s passing attack.

Week 1 Projection: Four receptions, 50 receiving yards

Virgil Green, DEN

Percent Owned: ESPN – 10.5, Yahoo – 27

I’m not high on the Broncos passing attack because I have trouble trusting Trevor Siemian as the starting quarterback. However, I acknowledge Green's opportunity to be a consistent contributor for the first time in his career because of Siemian's inexperience under center. 

Green earned the starting job with a strong performance in the preseason, including 10 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown in three games. In a sign of perhaps how important he is to the team, Green was held out of the fourth preseason game. I don’t see Green with the upside of Cook or Walford, but he could have a secure role with a young quarterback all season. Don't expect anything special out of Green against Carolina. 

Week 1 Projection: Four receptions, 44 receiving yards

The Matchup Men

Matchup Bumps

Jordan Reed, WAS (vs. PIT)

Greg Olsen, CAR (at DEN)

Coby Fleener, NO (vs. OAK)

Jared Cook, GB (at JAC)

Clive Walford, OAK (at NO)

Dwayne Allen, IND (vs. DET)

Matchup Concerns

Antonio Gates, SD (at KC)

Defenses/Kickers

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

The Eagles top the list of streaming defense options in Week 1.

Waiver Wire 

Defenses

Note: This will typically focus on the best streaming options widely available in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues based on the matchups, but many of the best defenses, such as Houston, Los Angeles, Carolina and Seattle, have the most favorable opponents. Expect to see two to three streaming options in future weeks. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Percent Owned: ESPN – 19.4, Yahoo – 47

In my last Big Board update of the preseason, I listed the Eagles as a good defense to grab at the end of your draft based on their early-season schedule, which includes a home game against the Browns, a visit to the Chicago Bears and a home game against the Steelers without Le’Veon Bell before their Week 4 bye. 

The first two matchups make Philly especially attractive to those working the waiver wire this week, as it's still widely available in ESPN and Yahoo leagues. Even though we saw some fireworks from the Browns in the preseason, quarterback Robert Griffin III will have problems facing a formidable pass rush led by Fletcher Cox, which should create sacks and turnovers.

Week 1 Projection: Four sacks, two interceptions, one fumble recovery, 17-20 points allowed

Kickers

During the season, this section will feature kickers on the rise or those entering favorable matchups with a lot of points in their forecast. We’ll start off with an intriguing player in a situation that wasn’t resolved until earlier this week.

Wil Lutz, NO

Percent Owned: ESPN - 0, Yahoo – 0 

In a battle that went down to final cuts, Kai Forbath beat out Connor Barth in what looked like the end of this kicker battle. Instead, the Saints signed Lutz to take over the job for Week 1 and cut Forbath, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. This is significant because New Orleans should have a good-to-great offense with plenty of volume thanks to its poor defense.

That translates to lots of chances for Lutz to score. Not only does he have the benefit of playing on a team with a formidable offense, but he also kicks more than half of his games indoors.

Week 1 Projection: Two field goals, four extra points

Camp's Corner

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Cam Newton may have his toughest matchup of the year in Denver.

I’m already mentally preparing myself for #OverreactionMonday, which is an annual fantasy Twitter holiday that takes place following Week 1 action. Please try to avoid the hysteria that comes with it. 

Some of your top picks will falter in the opener. If you selected Cam Newton in the third round of your draft, please don’t freak out if he doesn’t put up top-10 fantasy numbers against the Broncos in Denver on Thursday night. 

On the flip side, don’t overrate Dak Prescott if he lights up the Giants in his NFL debut. In fact, that might turn him into a trade chip for an overeager Cowboys fan in your league.

This is just one week of a long season that will have lots of twists and turns along the way. Barring an injury, you shouldn’t make sweeping changes to your roster or lineup based on one game. Revisit your personal depth charts after Week 3 to decide if you need to shake things up.

Stats provided by FantasyPros and NFL.com. ESPN and Yahoo ownership percentages are accurate as of Tuesday morning unless noted otherwise.

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