US Open 2016: 10 Bold Predictions at Flushing Meadows
The 2016 U.S. Open looks to be a battleground for the growing rivalry between world No. 1 Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, but several other stars on the men’s and women’s tours have the talent to make history.
Our “Bold Predictions” preview examines a few of the possibilities for the first week of the tournament when plenty of unforeseen upsets and surprises will take place. Nobody knows exactly how the action will unfold, and there are plenty of questions that need to be answered before the contenders separate themselves into second-week title shots.
Tennis fans wonder if Djokovic’s wrist is healthy. Per Press Association Sport (via Eurosport), he said: “The wrist hasn't been ideal for the last three-and-a-half weeks. But I'm doing everything in my power with obviously the medical team to make sure that I'm as close to 100 per cent as possible during the course of this tournament, at least for the beginning of it.”
Djokovic has not played since his first-match upset exit at the Olympics three weeks ago. He skipped Cincinnati’s Western & Southern Open, and the first week will test his timing as well as his health.
If he’s not close to his best, he might not make it to the second week. For sure he’s going to need to be healthy for seven great matches. Otherwise, Murray will look to pick up the title from the bottom of the bracket.
Meanwhile, women’s No. 1 Serena Williams has had to take time off with an injured shoulder. Will she be able to come back and serve with her usual fireworks?
For now, we will pass on including Djokovic or Serena as upset victims. They deserve the benefits of doubt until we see them play a match or two.
Nobody wins the title the first week, but 112 of 128 hopefuls on each tour will be eliminated before the fourth round. Who will survive and who will be cleaning out their lockers and hailing a cab to the airport?
Steve Johnson Will Defeat Juan Martin del Potro
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Juan Martin del Potro was the feel-good story of the Olympics, but the 2009 U.S. Open champion will find it difficult to keep playing at a top-10 level. He should get past fellow Argentine Diego Schwartzman, but the second round will be a trap match that he might not survive.
American Steve Johnson has been quietly playing excellent tennis on the fast surfaces this summer. He won on the grass-court in Nottingham, England, got to the fourth round at Wimbledon, battled to the semifinals at Washington D.C., took one set off Murray in the Olympic quarterfinals and defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Cincinnati before bowing out in the quarterfinals to red-hot Grigor Dimitrov.
Johnson is the new No. 1-ranked American, and he has won 20 of his last 27 matches with good forehand power, a nasty slice backhand and solid returns. He's physical enough to battle Del Potro. The crowd could give him the necessary boost to pull off the win, and the least we will get is a gritty, competitive match.
Don’t be shocked if Del Potro is unable to replicate the way he played in Brazil, even if we liked him as our No. 7 contender at the U.S. Open.
Venus Williams Ousted in the First Week
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Venus Williams is ranked No. 6 in the WTA, but she has a hard time maintaining her best level from one match to the next because of her ongoing fatigue issues from Sjogren’s syndrome. She’s also 36 years old.
Although capable of a great run like her semifinal at Wimbledon in early July, she’s just as likely to get ousted early like her first-round defeat at the Olympics.
She will lose in the first week, most likely to Julia Goerges in the second round. Goerges is an experienced veteran at age 27 who hits a hard serve and groundstrokes. She plays good doubles and has had scattered wins against the top players through the years.
Goerges is inconsistent but dangerous, and an opponent like Venus will have her attention without the accompanying pressure.
Rafael Nadal Will Look Very Dominating in Week One
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Let’s turn to a positive story for one of the greatest superstars in tennis history. Rafael Nadal has had more than his share of injuries and setbacks, including over two months missed between his withdrawal after winning the second round of the French Open. The Spaniard rebounded with a Herculean effort at the Olympics, playing 11 matches while seizing the doubles gold medal and the semifinals in singles.
But there was also concern he had crashed from fatigue when he was drilled by rising star Borna Coric at Cincinnati. The U.S. Open hard courts are faster than Nadal likes, and he has won the championship at Flushing Meadows only when his serve has been lights out (2010 and 2013). Those years are over.
But this week, Nadal should dominate his first three opponents starting with Denis Istomin. Only third-round possibility Albert Ramos-Vinolas is seeded at No. 31, and that's really an inflated seeding that came with an inexplicable run on clay courts at the French Open.
Nadal is rested, and he usually dominates lesser opponents with his tenacity. He will be unusually sharp this week, so much so that tennis fans will start to talk seriously about his chances to win the title.
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Simona Halep Will Lose to Daria Gavrilova in the Second Round
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Simona Halep is playing some of her best tennis recently, highlighted by huge titles at clay-court Madrid and the Rogers Cup last month. She’s a hardworking grinder who hustles, directs beautiful, strategic shots and has been a top-five player for over two years.
But the No. 5 Halep gets hiccups now and then, and despite a 36-13 record in 2016, she 's vulnerable to lesser players.
She will be in trouble with her second-round possibility against Daria Gavrilova, whom Halep routed twice in the last month—at Montreal and Cincinnati.
Why? For starters, Gavrilova knows she can beat Halep, like she did at Rome a few months ago. She’s also much better than her No. 45 ranking after a strong year in 2015 that had her named the WTA’s Newcomer of the Year. She should roll Lucie Safarova (who is a far better clay-court player than on hard courts) in the first round.
Gavrilova is a feisty competitor who will target the Halep match and throw defensive retrievals, angles and risk-reward shots at the favored Romanian star. She's going to be ready.
It has potential to be a knockdown, drag-out match, and Gavrilova is similar to Halep in how they play and their small stature. Gavrilova is also determined and would love to get a few wins in New York so she can move into future tournaments as a seed with better draws.
We’ll take Gavrilova in a thrilling upset.
Young ATP Aussies Will Play a Five-Set Thriller in the Third Round.
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Aussie stars could have a civil war in a third-round ATP clash between No. 14 seed Nick Kyrgios and No. 17 seed Bernard Tomic. It will have all the elements of a blockbuster, complete with inflated hype, egos and controversial behavior. That is if Tomic, age 23, and Kyrgios, age 21, work and play their best, something that has been questionable over the years.
They have not played against each other in ATP singles. Tomic is coming off one of his career’s best stretches, including wins over David Goffin and Kei Nishikori at Cincinnati last week. Kyrgios won the Atlanta title instead of going to the Olympics, and he will be the slight favorite, should they meet, largely because of his more powerful serve and forehand.
Somehow the match will live up to the hype. Tomic could win if he keeps control of his flat shots that tend to entice impatient opponents. Kyrgios needs to hustle after every ball as if this were more important than playing Pokemon Go.
There will be tension and reminders about their Davis Cup failures six months ago in losing to the U.S., particularly when Tomic accused Kyrgios of faking illness to avoid playing the tie.
The winner will have a chance for a career-best major by next week.
That will be Kyrgios.
Petra Kvitova Will Fall in Third Round to Elina Svitolina
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Looking for a high-percentage upset? World No. 14 Petra Kvitova has been trending down in 2016, and she’s only been past the first week at the U.S. Open three times in nine years, peaking last year as a quarterfinalist. Off Wimbledon’s grass, the big-serving Czech has been neutralized more against better baseliners.
In the third round, Kvitova will be looking up at Elina Svitolina, who is fresh off a final appearance at New Haven. Svitolina also upset Serena Williams at the Olympics. A round later, she was drilled 6-2, 6-0 by Kvitova who went on to score the bronze medal in singles.
We should get a much closer match this time around, because Svitolina is a more consistent hitter who can potentially move Kvitova around and force her into the high-risk tennis that often plagues the Czech.
Alexander Zverev Will Hit Through Stan Wawrinka in the Third Round
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We could get an intriguing look at veteran vs. upstart if No. 3 seed Stan Wawrinka faces off against No. 27 seed Alexander Zverev. On the surface, the blocky Swiss has the experience and power to school the young German, but Zverev is on the cusp of leaping into the elite.
Zverev stands at a lanky 6’6” and has exceptionally nimble footwork. He can crack his groundstrokes like Wawrinka, but his defensive potential and athleticism is greater. Zverev has competed fiercely against a handful of top players this year, including a few close losses to Dominic Thiem and a victory over Roger Federer to get to the final in Halle, Germany.
Zverev is growing more comfortable on the big stages, and it’s just a matter of a big win or two as he storms toward the ATP Top 10. If he gets early momentum, he will be more than ready to notch another big-time win.
It’s just a matter of time, and we’re looking at this weekend for Zverev to pull off the upset against the inconsistent Swiss.
Coco Vandeweghe Will Win 3rd-Round Civil War Against Madison Keys
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Madison Keys keeps brushing closer to stardom, but she’s yet to get a huge title. Keys is a new entry to the WTA Top 10 this summer. The 21-year-old boasts a huge serve, big groundstrokes and all the talent and tools to be a big winner on tour. She was a finalist at Rome and Montreal, losing to Serena Williams and Halep, respectively, and she’s gone deep in almost all her tournaments this summer.
But she’s going to meet her match in another American power player—Coco Vandeweghe. Vandeweghe is a fearless competitor who will relish the underdog role. She’s a veteran with a lot of power in her game, and if she keeps her composure, she can outlast Keys by forcing her to hit with less margin.
The winner could be favored to get to the quarterfinals next week in a possible clash against world No. 3 Garbine Muguruza.
Milos Raonic Will Lose in the First Week
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Wimbledon finalist and world No. 6 Milos Raonic should cruise behind his big serve during Week 1 against a relatively pedestrian lineup. He can bomb his way past Dustin Brown in the first round, and then he would face either Ryan Harrison or Adrian Mannarino in the second round before a third-round possibility against Benoit Paire—the lowest seed in the men’s draw and an inconsistent talent.
Raonic has been solid since Wimbledon, getting to the Rogers Cup quarterfinals and Cincinnati semifinals. He’s also had enough rest after bypassing the Olympics, and he likes to play on North American surfaces.
There’s not really a good reason he should lose, and many observers will pick him to get to the semifinals, perhaps after dusting off Nadal.
Except that there’s an endless list of players who follow up a breakthrough major by flopping in the next one.
Raonic often plays tight sets where tiebreakers are the difference. If he is forced to scratch out a couple of tiebreakers against his scrappy first-week opponents, it could wear on him by the third round.
Paire is still the most likely player to pull off the upset, especially if he plays the way he did in beating Wawrinka at Marseille last February, but it's often maddening trying to figure out when he will play well or fold his hand.
Jimmy Connors' 1991 Heroics Will Loom over Young Americans
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In 1991, 39-year-old Jimmy Connors completed a miraculous run to the U.S. Open semifinals. There will be more reminders 25 years later, and it will loom over the newest crop of young Americans who hope to one day have their own epic careers.
Anytime play is halted because of inclement weather, the networks will be sure to pull out some old Connors footage when he rallied past Aaron Krickstein or when he hit some miraculous defensive returns against Paul Haarhuis. It’s the kind of stuff that can galvanize American tennis fans—a dose of nostalgia mixed in with hope for new stars.
The iconic Connors is about 40-45 years older than Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Michael Mmoh, Jared Donaldson and Jack Sock. Any of those players who are able to pull off a few upsets will be the toast of New York, and the spirit of Connors will be palpable once again.
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