Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players Heading into the 2016 US Open
The 2016 U.S. Open is the last tennis major of the year, and the men’s tour has several top-10 contenders with their eyes on New York’s big silver trophy.
There’s defending champion Novak Djokovic looking to reassert his dominance, while Andy Murray tries to finish with two consecutive major titles and challenge for the No. 1 ranking.
Otherwise, at least eight other stars have a realistic shot at winning the title if they rise up and play some of the best tennis of their careers. They also need timely upsets in their portion of the draw.
Here, we rank the players according to their chances of winning the U.S. Open.
How have they played in 2016, especially recently? Players who like Flushing Meadows' faster hard-court surface get an extra nod.
Finally, players who can be spoilers or who have the weapons to go deep with big-match wins are more likely to ride a hot streak to a championship than a typically consistent player like David Goffin or David Ferrer.
It will be a raucous time in the Big Apple where taxis, bagels and vocal fans are ready to deliver late into the night. Who will survive to win North America’s biggest tennis championship?
Missing the Cut
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Unless you live on another planet—or have not watched tennis since early July—the news that Roger Federer will not be playing the U.S. Open will not come as a surprise.
The Swiss Maestro has shut down the rest of 2016 with recurring knee injuries, and he has been plagued by back problems and illness at times.
World No. 8 Tomas Berdych, a semifinalist at the U.S. Open in 2012 and a powerful baseline hitter, will miss the tournament due to appendicitis.
Other second-tier stars like Frenchmen Richard Gasquet, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils also miss our top 10.
Monfils has played well recently, but it’s hard to see him play great, consistent tennis for two weeks rather than the successful one-week forays he’s had this summer.
10. Nick Kyrgios
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Why Nick Kyrgios? The 21-year-old Aussie has awesome major-winning ability, and he could have been the second coming of Pete Sampras with his unrivaled athleticism, grace and power. (Yes, that last line was written as if he has already wasted his career.)
He should already be a top-10 stalwart, except…
Yeah, that’s the problem. His talent teases everyone, and when he does go out and flatten top opponents at Marseille or blitz through everyone for the Atlanta title early in August, it’s as if he he should be able to transition right over to New York and capture the championship.
Not so fast.
He’s not the most committed athlete in tennis, admitting after his meek fourth-round loss to Andy Murray at Wimbledon that “I don’t love this sport, but I don’t know what else to do without it.
“One week, I’m pretty motivated to train and play. Another week, I’ll just not do anything. I don’t really know a coach who would be down for that one.”
But there’s always a chance that Kyrgios comes of age by raining down serves and forehands on the other great players. Maybe his backhand kicks up another notch and he plays loose, lethal tennis.
Seven wins is all it takes, and he could do it, but first he’s got to get through the opening week.
9. Dominic Thiem
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Since his semifinal appearance at the French Open, there has been no letup from Dominic Thiem's efforts to compete as often as possible.
He won the grass-court title at Stuttgart and was a finalist at Halle before he crashed at Wimbledon. Sixty matches in little more than half a year is a lot of grinding tennis, especially in how Thiem plays.
He has not been the same since in five mediocre matches.
The Austrian plays by hitting heavy balls. He’s a tough competitor and patient with enough lanky power and a big-enough serve to back up his groundstrokes. That's if he's healthy and ready to go.
New York will be a much bigger challenge, not just because he would like to shake off some rust. He needs a good performance to place him closer to the finish line for qualifying as one of the elite eight who will go to London’s World Tour Finals in November.
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8. Kei Nishikori
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Props to Kei Nishikori’s three-year run as a consistent top-10 player. He’s played in a few Masters 1000 finals (all losses) and was the 2014 U.S. Open runner up. He’s consistent and a dynamic, creative player when healthy, so he’s got a shot at winning a major sometime over the next few years.
The problem is that someone in front of him always has the bigger game. Usually the final obstacle has been Novak Djokovic, but there are younger players coming along who could leapfrog Nishikori sooner than later.
The 26-year-old needs to keep winning his expected matches and roll the dice against the top stars for one championship moment at a major.
Will he be able to attack with his aggressive footwork and angles? Does he have enough to defend his serve late in huge matches?
Nishikori’s had a good year and is more consistent than a few players ranked higher in this countdown, but the jury has been out in deciding if he has enough firepower to win the U.S. Open. Probably not.
7. Juan Martin Del Potro
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This might be the first time in the history of tennis rankings that a player ranked as low as No. 142 could be considered as a top-10 contender for a major title.
We almost feel the need to reintroduce Juan Martin del Potro, who was missing from the ATP World Tour for over a year with another devastating wrist injury. But the Argentine, a former top-10 regular and the 2009 U.S. Open champion, is back contending.
In the last few months, Del Potro has returned with a modest schedule, but he’s scored a few big wins over Dominic Thiem, Grigor Dimitrov, Gilles Simon, Stan Wawrinka, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. Most players couldn’t do that in an entire career.
Del Potro’s forehand is a huge weapon that can overcome anyone when he’s firing on all cylinders. He got to the gold-medal match at the Olympic Games, falling to Andy Murray in four lengthy sets. It’s a match that will only help, proof that he can grind and compete in six matches in just over a week.
At the U.S. Open, Del Potro will not have an easy road as an unseeded player, but nobody wants to play him either. He’s got a puncher’s chance to go deep into the second week and even a whisper of competing for the championship is not so crazy.
6. Rafael Nadal
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As always, questions surround Rafael Nadal’s ebbs and flows as he fights through age, injuries and the dilemma of playing enough to be dominant but too much for his fatigued body.
After pulling out of the French Open with a left-wrist injury, Nadal did not reappear until the Olympics where he played 11 matches with singles and doubles results wearing him down to a shell of himself at Cincinnati. His crushing defeat to Borna Coric does raise at least some doubt as if he will be a factor at the U.S. Open.
There are reasons to side with the affirmative. First, Nadal will be more rested. His legs and wrist were overtaxed over a brief exhausting time, and he should be able to come back and pace himself better with matches only every other day.
The 30-year-old will be focused on every point, determined to get back and taking nothing for granted. He should feel confident after his Olympics singles semifinal appearance, which came while he won the doubles gold medal with Marc Lopez.
The Spanish star will need to play some of his best tennis. His two titles at the U.S. Open (2010, 2013) were arguably the best two serving periods of his career. He’s nowhere near that right now. He was able to play with pace, flatten shots and play well above the rest of the competition before grinding through Novak Djokovic in each final. That’s not likely to happen this time around, but it’s possible.
5. Stan Wawrinka
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Stan Wawrinka generally plays better in the first half of the year when slower hard courts and clay allow him extra time to wind up his more lengthy, powerful groundstrokes. By late summer, his footwork and margin for error is tighter, especially against other big-hitters.
The Swiss has been a serious force on the ATP tour for three-and-a-half years, and he reached the 2013 U.S. Open semifinal, falling in five tough sets to Novak Djokovic.
As a two-time major winner, Wawrinka is not afraid to compete and defeat the top superstars, but he’s also less consistent, a hit-or-miss wild card. He could lose in the first round or seize a long shot to win the title.
That is if Wawrinka can have a resurgence after what could be beginning of a gradual decline at age 31. He crashed at Wimbledon and looked lost at Cincinnati in falling to Grigor Dimitrov. Maybe it's time for him to get on a roll again.
4. Milos Raonic
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The big Canadian has been getting closer to being a major champion. His 2016 resume includes a five-set loss to Andy Murray in the Australian Open semifinals and a Wimbledon final loss to the Scot.
There are a few improvements that place Raonic as our No. 4 contender:
- The humongous serve.
- He’s healthy right now after battling a variety of nagging injuries over the past two years.
- An improved short game that puts more pressure on opponents with improved volleys and aggressive shot selection.
- Rising confidence after Wimbledon semifinal win over Federer. He’s hungry after the Murray losses.
- Plays well in North America on hard courts. This might be his strongest opportunity yet.
3. Marin Cilic
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Never mind that Marin Cilic is only ranked No. 9 in the ATP rankings. Who else is better positioned as the third favorite at the U.S. Open?
Consider the following credentials:
- The 2014 U.S. Open champion. Been there, done that.
- Plays his best tennis on fast, lower-bouncing surfaces like Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
- Has the big serve, powerful forehand and very good defensive footwork, certainly more than adequate to win another major.
- Pushed the top champions of the last few years: Took Djokovic to five sets at 2014 Wimbledon. Crushed Federer and Nishikori at the 2014 U.S. Open. Semifinalist at 2015 U.S. Open before falling to Djokovic. Took Federer to five sets at Wimbledon last month. Bounced Andy Murray for the Cincinnati title.
- Maybe the pressure’s off after losing agonizing five-setters to Federer and Jack Sock in back-to-back weeks at Wimbledon and the Davis Cup in July. He’s cresting with very consistent, impressive tennis for the moment.
2. Andy Murray
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Is this the peak of Andy Murray? If so, he’s always looking up at someone, and he knows he has his work cut out for him.
Marin Cilic overpowered him at Cincinnati, and other power players can be dangerous spoilers for one big match. Getting to the U.S. Open final will be a challenge even though Murray has proved that he’s the second-most consistent player in tennis, the second-best returner and the second-least likely player to beat himself.
The question is if Murray can beat Djokovic in a major final (We’re talking about 2016, not 2012-13). Evidence suggests that he can. He won the 2015 Rogers Cup and the 2016 Rome final against his biggest rival. It’s enough to dub Murray as the modern version of Mats Wilander against the more dominant Ivan Lendl in the 1988 U.S. Open final.
Murray can win if he is efficiently aggressive for an entire match against Djokovic. Easier said than done. Give the Scot about a one-in-three chance of pulling off the upset, if he gets there.
If Djokovic gets ousted early, you can almost bank on opportunistic Murray on closing out any other finalist.
1. Novak Djokovic
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When was the last major that Novak Djokovic was not the favorite? The 2014 French Open, perhaps?
Meanwhile, he’s been the world No. 1 for over two consecutive years and capped off arguably his most dominant year (2015) in the Open era while completing the Grand Slam with the French Open in 2016.
Despite a couple of high-profile losses at Wimbledon and the Olympics, Djokovic is still the consensus' best player with the most complete big-match package of skills to win championships.
There are only a few concerns:
- Is his wrist completely healthy?
- Is Andy Murray’s momentum enough to match Djokovic?
- Historically, Djokovic has had a few more difficulties at the U.S. Open Series than in most areas of the world. He bagged his third Rogers Cup, but he’s still never won speedy Cincinnati, and New York has never been easy.
Then again, we’re splitting hairs. The recent losses will likely embolden Djokovic with more hunger and perhaps take some of the pressure off.
When someone like Federer or Murray rise up to get more of the headlines, Djokovic has an uncanny knack for locking into his job, fending off hostile crowds and marching to major titles.
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