Fantasy Football 2016: Preseason Mock Draft Strategy, Rankings and Analysis

John Lennon didn't play fantasy football, but if he did, his advice for you would probably be: "Fantasy drafts are what happen to you while you're busy making a plan."

Or something like that.

The point, if there is one, is that while it's important to have a plan going into your draft, you shouldn't be a slave to it. Otherwise, the draft will pass you by.

With that in mind, let's break down my rankings and philosophy for drafts this season.

10-Round Draft Rankings

Round 1
Round 2
Round 3
Round 4
Round 5
Round 6
Round 7
Round 8
Round 9
Round 10
Pick	Player	Position	Team
1	Adrian Peterson	RB	Minnesota Vikings
2	Antonio Brown	WR	Pittsburgh Steelers
3	Odell Beckham, Jr.	WR	New York Giants
4	Julio Jones	WR	Atlanta Falcons
5	Todd Gurley	RB	St. Louis Rams
6	Rob Gronkowski	TE	New England Patriots
7	David Johnson	RB	Arizona Cardinals
8	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	Dallas Cowboys
9	A.J. Green	WR	Cincinnati Bengals
10	Lamar Miller	RB	Houston Texans
Pick	Player	Position	Team
11	Dez Bryant	WR	Dallas Cowboys
12	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	Houston Texans
13	Brandon Marshall	WR	New York Jets
14	Mark Ingram	RB	New Orleans Saints
15	Doug Martin	RB	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16	LeSean McCoy	RB	Buffalo Bills
17	Allen Robinson	WR	Jacksonville Jaguars
18	Jordy Nelson	WR	Green Bay Packers
19	Alshon Jeffery	WR	Chicago Bears
20	Thomas Rawls	RB	Seattle Seahawks
Pick	Player	Position	Team
21	Devonta Freeman	RB	Atlanta Falcons
22	Mike Evans	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23	Jamaal Charles	RB	Kansas City Chiefs
24	Demaryius Thomas	WR	Denver Broncos
25	Sammy Watkins	WR	Buffalo Bills
26	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers
27	Brandin Cooks	WR	New Orleans Saints
28	Jordan Reed	TE	Washington
29	Carlos Hyde	RB	San Francisco 49ers
30	Cam Newton	QB	Carolina Panthers
Pick	Player	Position	Team
31	Julian Edelman	WR	New England Patriots
32	Randall Cobb	WR	Green Bay Packers
33	Greg Olsen	TE	Carolina Panthers
34	Eddie Lacy	RB	Green Bay Packers
35	Amari Cooper	WR	Oakland Raiders
36	Keenan Allen	WR	San Diego Chargers
37	Eric Decker	WR	New York Jets
38	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Green Bay Packers
39	Russell Wilson	QB	Seattle Seahawks
40	C.J. Anderson	RB	Denver Broncos
Pick	Player	Position	Team
41	Jonathan Stewart	RB	Carolina Panthers
42	T.Y. Hilton	WR	Indianapolis Colts
43	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Carolina Panthers
44	Matt Forte	RB	New York Jets
45	Dion Lewis	RB	New England Patriots
46	Golden Tate	WR	Detroit Lions
47	Andrew Luck	QB	Indianapolis Colts
48	Jarvis Landry	WR	Miami Dolphins
49	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Kansas City Chiefs
50	Ryan Mathews	RB	Philadelphia Eagles
Pick	Player	Position	Team
51	Doug Baldwin	WR	Seattle Seahawks
52	Jeremy Hill	RB	Cincinnati Bengals
53	Giovani Bernard	RB	Cincinnati Bengals
54	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	Denver Broncos
55	Allen Hurns	WR	Jacksonville Jaguars
56	Donte Moncrief	WR	Indianapolis Colts
57	DeVante Parker	WR	Miami Dolphins
58	Delanie Walker	TE	Tennessee Titans
59	Drew Brees	QB	New Orleans Saints
60	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick	Player	Position	Team
61	Jordan Matthews	WR	Philadelphia Eagles
62	DeSean Jackson	WR	Washington
63	Melvin Gordon	RB	San Diego Chargers
64	Matt Jones	RB	Washington
65	Latavius Murray	RB	Oakland Raiders
66	Danny Woodhead	RB	San Diego Chargers
67	Frank Gore	RB	Indianapolis Colts
68	Duke Johnson	RB	Cleveland Browns
69	Ameer Abdullah	RB	Detroit Lions
70	Michael Crabtree	WR	Oakland Raiders
Pick	Player	Position	Team
71	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	Arizona Cardinals
72	Michael Floyd	WR	Arizona Cardinals
73	DeMarco Murray	RB	Tennessee Titans
74	Jeremy Langford	RB	Chicago Bears
75	Arian Foster	RB	Miami Dolphins
76	Carson Palmer	QB	Arizona Cardinals
77	Tom Brady	QB	New England Patriots
78	Marvin Jones	WR	Detroit Lions
79	DeAngelo Williams	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers
80	Josh Gordon	WR	Cleveland Browns
Pick	Player	Position	Team
81	John Brown	WR	Arizona Cardinals
82	T.J. Yeldon	RB	Jacksonville Jaguars
83	Justin Forsett	RB	Baltimore Ravens
84	Rashad Jennings	RB	New York Giants
85	Kevin White	WR	Chicago Bears
86	Eli Manning	QB	New York Giants
87	Blake Bortles	QB	Jacksonville Jaguars
88	Tony Romo	QB	Dallas Cowboys
89	Stefon Diggs	WR	Minnesota Vikings
90	Tyler Lockett	WR	Seattle Seahawks
Pick	Player	Position	Team
91	Sterling Shepard	WR	New York Giants
92	Travis Kelce	TE	Kansas City Chiefs
93	Jimmy Graham	TE	Seattle Seahawks
94	Coby Fleener	TE	New Orleans Saints
95	Chris Ivory	RB	Jacksonville Jaguars
96	Torrey Smith	WR	San Francisco 49ers
97	Vincent Jackson	WR	Tampa Bay Buccaneers
98	Zach Ertz	TE	Philadelphia Eagles
99	Willie Snead	WR	New Orleans Saints
100	Tyler Eifert	TE	Cincinnati Bengals

Analysis

As hinted at in this article's introduction, I believe in two main draft principles:

1. Go into your draft with the loose framework of a plan.
2. Don't be afraid to deviate from the plan depending on how the draft develops. 

So this year, what's the plan?

The first part of the plan, every year, is to take trustworthy and reliable players in the first three rounds.

I'm talking players who have either consistently been top fantasy performers in the past or who have the talent and opportunity to be solid players this year. Players who don't have a history of off-field or injury concerns that could cost them playing time. Players who have produced in the past (i.e., receivers who have a history of accumulating a lot of targets, receptions and receiving yards rather than players who had a season with double-digit touchdowns).

Targets and yards are indicators of a player's role in a team's offense. Touchdowns, on the other hand, can be extremely fickle.

So that's the broad plan for the first three rounds. But on a more specific level, I want to secure reliable running backs as quickly possible.

Look, running back was a mess last year. Antonio Brown and Julio Jones, wide receivers, outscored every running back. Just five running backs had as many or more points than Rob Gronkowski. In the flex rankings, just nine running backs finished in the top 25. 

And the position was such a mess, Danny Woodhead—who only had 97 carries—finished as the 10th-ranked player at the position. Danny Woodhead!

Now last year, in particular, was insane. Jamaal Charles, Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, Le'Veon Bell, Marshawn Lynch, Arian Foster, Justin Forsett and Jonathan Stewart all missed significant time to injury. Eddie Lacy, DeMarco Murray and Alfred Morris were huge busts. And a number of players found themselves trapped in running back-by-committee situations.

In 2015, productive running backs were worth their weight in gold. There's little reason to believe anything should be different this season.

It's why Adrian Peterson would be my top overall pick. It's why I have 13 running backs in my top 30, second only to wide receivers (14). It's why young players with just one season of production (Todd Gurley and David Johnson) and a certain rookie (Ezekiel Elliott) should be first-round picks.

And it's why players such as Thomas Rawls are in my top 20 (though that is definitely subject to change). Rawls is a member of a Seattle Seahawks offense that loves to pound the rock, but he also only has one year of fantasy viability and is battling Christine Michael for touches.

“His consistency is really much, much improved, in that he is seeing the line of scrimmage really well,” head coach Pete Carroll told Jayson Jenks of the Seattle Times when asked about Michael. “He’s taking advantage of the plays. He ran kind of wild at times and was impatient at times.”

Now that he isn't so impatient, Michael is a threat to steal carries in Seattle. It's indicative of a trend happening across the NFL—coaches would rather spread out carries and keep players fresh rather than riding just one running back—and it certainly makes Rawls a risky pick.

In turn, that makes the league's true feature backs all the more valuable. 

Even Bell—who will be suspended for the first three games of the 2016 season—is incredibly valuable because of how productive he'll be when he returns. Without the suspension, Bell would have been the top overall player in my rankings. Even with three games on the sideline, he's still a top-30 pick, if only because he'll be a force of nature for the rest of the season. 

If you are drafting solely on positional value, you'll target running backs early and perhaps tight end Rob Gronkowski, who often has more value over other players at his position than any other player in the NFL.

If we look at Gronk's value over replacement player (VORP) in 10-man leagues—calculated by defining a replacement player as the No. 11 quarterback and tight end and the No. 21 running back and wide receiver, since standard leagues require you to start one quarterback, one tight end, two running backs and two wide receivers—Gronkowski is still among the league leaders.

Rank	Player	Team	Overall Fantasy Points	VORP (Total)	VORP (Per Week)
1	Devonta Freeman	Atlanta Falcons	230	+111	+6.9
2	Antonio Brown	Pittsburgh Steelers	243	+108	+6.7
3	Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	217	+98	+6.1
T4	Julio Jones	Atlanta Falcons	231	+96	+6
T4	Cam Newton	Carolina Panthers	373	+96	+6
T6	Rob Gronkowski	New England Patriots	176	+88	+5.5
T6	Brandon Marshall	New York Jets	223	+88	+5.5

This list is also a strong indicator of how you should format your first round. Five of the top seven players in VORP last season came from running backs and wide receivers, suggesting that the elite players at those positions are generally more valuable than the top options at other positions.

Whereas the quarterback and tight end positions tend to even out quickly in terms of production, the top options at wideout and running back separate themselves from the pack. That's why they dominate the opening rounds.

And that's why after last year's debacle, I'll be hoping to nab at least two reliable, high-ceiling running backs in the first three rounds and building my team from there. Every other position has quality depth well down the board. But the running backs thin out quickly. 

Don't miss out.

All scoring and points-against stats via ESPN standard-scoring leagues. You can follow Timothy Rapp on Twitter.