Fantasy Football 2016: Answers to Preseason's Biggest Questions

What are the biggest questions—and subsequent lessons—fantasy football investors can take away from the 2016 NFL preseason?

With just over seven minutes left in the first quarter of the Detroit Lions' first preseason game of 2015, then-rookie Ameer Abdullah rocketed deep out of his own backfield for a 45-yard gain. In a matter of seconds, Twitter gushed, and Abdullah's fantasy stock surged to new heights.

Abdullah would go on to produce a disappointing rookie season, finishing 63rd in fantasy points per game among tailbacks in standard ESPN leagues. But the results don't change the fact that his fantasy draft stock was altered on that single play. For those who dismiss the NFL preseason as inconsequential, this snapshot offers evidence of how influential it can be to the fantasy football marketplace.

Could the "Abdullah Moment" for the 2016 preseason be the Oakland Raiders' DeAndre Washington's sizzling highlight reel from the team's first preseason game? Washington produced two huge plays in his professional debut, inspiring Twitter praise. The good part is that Washington's average draft position is unlikely to spike too dramatically, as he's cemented as the team's backup running back heading into the season.

But can Oakland starter Latavius Murray improve on an inefficient 2015 effort? Subsequently, can Washington eventually unseat him as the feature back? As we noted in a Bleacher Report piece this past week, Murray had a historically poor season for how many touches he received: 

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We conducted a study using data from ESPN.com going back to 2001 and found that of the 75 NFL backs with at least 266 carries and 40 receptions in a season, Murray scored the fewest PPR (points per reception) fantasy points (using ESPN scoring) of the sample. Not just in the bottom half or quarter, but dead last.

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Abdullah cost investors a fourth-round pick in drafts last summer, while Washington is likely to go well into the double-digit rounds, making him an impressive stash commodity behind Murray on a rising offense.

We spend the NFL offseason—and particularly the summer months—projecting, exalting and deriding various players. The preseason offers us the first sustained stream of actionable information since the draft in late spring, so it's somewhat natural to see hyperbole and hype enter the marketplace. It's our job as fantasy managers to decipher what the August tea leaves will mean come the regular season. 

What will the Cleveland Browns offense look like under new coach Hue Jackson and with new quarterback Robert Griffin III at the helm? What should we make of the Baltimore Ravens' cloudy running back depth chart? How will the New England Patriots offense look without Tom Brady for the first month? 

On the doorstep of a new NFL campaign, we'll canvass the league looking for answers to some compelling questions facing the fantasy football marketplace.

What to Make of the Missing Talents on the Pittsburgh Steelers Offense

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Pittsburgh Steelers were fourth in points per game last season, but they face a number of personnel questions heading into the new season.

Mystery still surrounds superstar running back Le'Veon Bell's suspension situation. Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio offered pessimism over Bell's ability to successfully appeal his four-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Thankfully, we'll have an answer by Aug. 18, according to Alex Marvez of Sporting News.

Fantasy managers already recognize that the insurance and replacement policy for Bell is veteran DeAngelo Williams, who impressively finished fourth overall in fantasy points among running backs in ESPN leagues last season.

How should we price Bell—assuming he's sitting out the first month of the season?

RotoViz author RotoDoc reminds us it's "important to take into account the fact that you still will score points at the RB slot for the four weeks Bell is out." Assuming you can acquire output equivalent to the 30th fantasy back over that stretch, as RotoDoc posits, the aggregate fantasy total would equal RB6 production. This means it's not difficult, even without investing in Williams, to expect RB1 value from Bell.

The Steelers offense will be without wideout Martavis Bryant for the season due to suspension, but just how will the Steelers replace this big-play maven in the vertical passing game?

Some assume third-year receiver Markus Wheaton is due to consume a sizable leap in market share of the Pittsburgh passing game. Last season, however, Wheaton averaged more yards (51) with Bryant in the lineup than without (29) and 33 percent more fantasy points alongside the vertical threat.

The more meaningful receiver to target in drafts might just be Sammie Coates, a size (6'1", 212 lbs) and speed specimen out of Auburn who ranks in the 96th percentile in explosion metrics among receiving prospects since 1999, according to MockDraftable.com. Coates struggled in the Steelers' first preseason game with two fumbles, but rave reviews from training camp as the team's top deep threat could convert into fantasy fun come the regular season. Therefore, late-round shares of Coates appear more attractive than mid-round pricing on Wheaton.

What about free-agent acquisition Ladarius Green? Shocking news this week from Florio brought up the "R" word for the talented tight end—as in "retirement." Green is reportedly battling headache symptoms, but there isn't much detail as of yet.

However, as ESPN.com's Jeremy Fowler reported, the team is saying Green faces an ankle ailment as the main injury concern.

We're still in the discovery phase with Green's situation, but for an upside tight end regularly ranked in the top 10 at the position and atop sleeper lists throughout the offseason, this mystery should see his stock drop until some clarity enters the situation. If your league drafts soon and lets Green slip into the twilight rounds, it could be worth a late-round gamble to see if he's able to play this season at a marked discount.

How Will Jimmy Garoppolo Fare as the New England Patriots' Starter?

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

The Patriots will be without superstar signal-caller Tom Brady for the first four games of the season, leaving third-year quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo as the team's starter over that span.

While the preseason might not prove entirely accurate in measuring his ability to produce in the regular season, Garoppolo enjoyed a respectable debut as the team's starter, per Pro Football Focus: "Garoppolo finished the game with an average overall grade, but he also had an adjusted completion percentage of just 61.1 percent, third-lowest among QBs with at least five pass attempts. Still, he found Malcolm Mitchell (Georgia) on a well-thrown deep pass and went 9-for-13 when not under pressure."

The box score for the win over the New Orleans Saints isn't revealing, but the telling takeaway from this first exhibition performance was the deft deep ball to Mitchell, who will miss around four weeks of action due to an elbow injury suffered in the game, per ESPN.com.

The well-placed deep ball from Garoppolo is encouraging in an offense that often leans on quick-hitting, short-yardage passes, suggesting there is some big-play upside to be found if this success and usage translate into September.

Once again, it's only the preseason, but both the tape and box score suggest we can at least expect Garoppolo to competently supply Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman with targets. One additional gem to consider would be the success receiving back James White enjoyed in the game, as he would stand to inherit the valuable "Shane Vereen" role if the recovering Dion Lewis isn't ready for Week 1.

How Should Fantasy Investors Approach the Baltimore Ravens' Crowded Backfield?

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Marc Trestman has been deemed the "Running Back Whisperer" by us fantasy nerds.

The reasoning for the praise when it comes to fantasy success is that Trestman's backfields have averaged just over 120 passing targets per season with an average finish for his top usage back of 12.3, per RotoViz's Anthony Amico.

This means he's regularly led his lead back to promising fantasy results—hence our current interest in deciphering a cloudy depth chart in Baltimore at the position.

Incumbent veteran starter Justin Forsett ranked 58th out of 68 qualifying backs in Pro Football Focus' grading at the position last season and finished 33rd at the position in fantasy points per game (using ESPN standard scoring) in an injury-limited, 10-game 2015 season. We're not high on Forsett's fantasy prospects this season given the combination of inefficient receiving production and advanced age, especially since he's going 84th overall on average in recent mock drafts, per Fantasy Football Calculator.

Second-year back Javorius Allen was graded as the 51st back by PFF last season and finished 57th in fantasy points per game. As a flyer in deeper PPR formats, we can stomach his price, as he's not being drafted among the top 61 backs on average, per Fantasy Football Calculator. That said, we're not enthused with the season-long stock on Allen.

We are intrigued, however, by the resurgence of left-for-dead back Terrance West and the upside found in talented rookie Kenneth Dixon. A camp star so far in the eyes of many beat writers, West was a notable standout in the team's first preseason game this past Thursday night, per NFL.com's Gregg Rosenthal: "West was another player that built on camp buzz with a quality preseason effort. His numbers weren't great (32 yards and two scores), but his explosiveness, power and footwork were easy to see. Rookie running back Kenneth Dixon also looked good playing against backups."

PFF detailed Dixon's successful debut: "Baltimore rookie running back Kenneth Dixon (Louisiana Tech) was quite impressive on a handful of touches. He forced two missed tackles on eight rushes that went for 44 yards to finish the game, and tied as the second-highest-graded runner out of the six games."

The love from PFF for Dixon was rife throughout the offseason, as Chase Howell wrote in May, "Last year, he forced more missed tackles on receptions (16) than any other RB in the class, and owned the second-best elusive rating (behind only Giants rookie Paul Perkins), which is PFF’s measure of how good a runner is at generating yards independent of his blocking."

Our takeaway for the Ravens backfield is to focus on cheap shares of West and Dixon, even though it's a crowded and somewhat murky depth chart to consider. Neither back will cost you much, and it's West who appears best suited for standard league scoring, with Dixon ideal for PPR formats.

Either way, Trestman's history of success at the position should inspire investors to figure this out rather than run from this inscrutable running game.

Can RG3 Return to His Playmaking Peak with the Cleveland Browns?

Jay LaPrete/Associated Press

Robert Griffin III's first pass as a Cleveland Brown was a 49-yard parabola on the right sideline to Terrelle Pryor. New coach Hue Jackson wasted no time in deploying Griffin's big arm.

A key question for the Browns this season is whether Jackson can help revive Griffin's once-promising career. Griffin followed that huge initial play call with a fumble on the next snap and an interception just five plays later, so there is still quite a bit of refining to do.

We don't find a ton of interest brewing in Griffin as a fantasy commodity, especially in traditional leagues that start one quarterback. There is some appeal in RG3 in deeper formats—if only for the low cost and previous fantasy pedigree as a rookie. That said, this auspicious debut in the passing phase offers increased fantasy potential to the likes of rookie Corey Coleman, a fellow Baylor alum, who led the nation in touchdowns last season.

Coleman could pair well with Griffin's potentially deft deep ball, as RG3 led the NFL with a 98.5 quarterback rating on passes of at least 15 air yards as a rookie in 2012, per an ESPN database. You can find Coleman going as the 42nd receiver on average in drafts, per Fantasy Football Calculator.

It's difficult to gauge what Josh Gordon might play like after his long hiatus from football, but as the 30th receiver off the board on average, per Fantasy Football Calculator, the risk-reward gamble is reasonable for what could be a Baylor-centric passing game in Ohio come October.

As an additional note, tailback Duke Johnson looked spry and perfectly suited for Jackson's zone-blocking scheme in Cleveland. We're high on Johnson heading into the new season, as Jackson helped Gio Bernard with the Cincinnati Bengals to three straight top-20 finishes among backs in PPR formats.

Which San Francisco 49ers Signal-Caller Will Win the Competition in Chip Kelly's Offense?

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

Coach Chip Kelly brought his fast-paced, snap-happy offensive scheme to San Francisco this offseason. Kelly has been slow, however, to name a starting signal-caller for the team, as both Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick are currently listed as co-starters on the depth chart, per CSN Bay Area's Matt Maiocco.

While we doubt fantasy investors will have much interest in drafting whichever quarterback wins the starting gig, it is relevant to the team's skill players to gain some insight into the team's passing game going forward.

The fact is that Kelly's NFL offenses in Philadelphia produced some successful fantasy results at the receiver position. DeSean Jackson finished 10th in fantasy points in ESPN leagues at the position in 2013, with Riley Cooper also somehow finishing 23rd that season. Jeremy Maclin finished ninth in ESPN leagues in 2014, and Jordan Matthews was 24th. Matthews was 19th last season in Kelly's final year with the Eagles.

Some telling facts from Pro Football Focus' Michael Tagliere about Kaepernick's 2015 suggest fantasy fans might prefer Gabbert under center:

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Despite having the lowest average depth of target among quarterbacks (7.7 yards), Colin Kaepernick had the third-worst adjusted completion percentage (68.3 percent). ... Matt Ryan completed the highest percent of passes while under pressure, at 59 percent. Colin Kaepernick (34.7) and Andrew Luck (37.7) had the lowest percentages.

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Word from the beat has Kaepernick struggling, even in seven-on-seven drills, while Gabbert is at least proving competent. Kaepernick is also coming off surgeries on his right thumb, left knee and left shoulder to repair a torn labrum this offseason. That said, we could learn a good deal from the 49ers' first preseason contest this Sunday.

As for the receiving corps in San Francisco, bounce-back potential awaits vertical maven Torrey Smith, who can be found into the 40s at the position, per Fantasy Football Calculator. Smith produced four consecutive top-24 fantasy campaigns in ESPN standard leagues to open his career in Baltimore, so the precedent is established for profit when combining his own pedigree with Kelly's fantasy-friendly scheme.

For even more value, seek out late shares of Bruce Ellington, who is currently going 61st at the position, per Fantasy Football Calculator, and bears fun upside in this snap-rich offense.

Will Marvin Jones Translate a Great Preseason into a Big Fantasy Year?

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The box score from Friday night's preseason game between the Detroit Lions and Pittsburgh Steelers reveals Marvin Jones reeled in one reception for 16 yards. The highlight for that haul shows Jones displaying brilliant footwork on a toe-tapping reception on the sideline from a well-placed Matthew Stafford pass.

Stafford and Jones are enjoying unique chemistry already, per Kyle Meinke of MLive.com: "Quarterback Matthew Stafford got his first chance to work against a foreign defense, and he went to Jones repeatedly, targeting him with seven of his 14 passes during team drills at a joint practice with the Steelers. Jones caught six of those passes. No one else had more than two."

Preseason hype is a dangerous drug, but it is one we will encounter while investigating the burgeoning market for value. As for his professional pedigree, Jones already has a 10-touchdown campaign to his name and just set career bests in receptions and yards this past season for the Cincinnati Bengals.

With a legitimate playmaking resume and entry into one of the league's top pass-heavy offenses, the target share available after Calvin Johnson retired is quite sizable for Jones to consume. He is currently going well past the starting tier at the position at WR40 on average, per Fantasy Football Calculator.

We suspect Jones will be a rising commodity in the coming weeks given the helium published hype provides, but still, he's a player with real profit potential given such depressed draft pricing.