Predicting MLB's 10 Postseason Teams at the 3-Quarter Mark
October will be here soon. Do you know where your playoff teams are?
It's only August, so we don't either. All we know is which clubs we think are going to make it into the postseason, and we're more than glad to share.
Having already offered awards predictions at the three-quarter mark of the 2016 Major League Baseball season, it's on to predicting which 10 clubs are going to be playing in October. To do this, we'll need to weigh the standings and the state of each contender and then take a somewhat educated, somewhat wild guess.
We'll start in the American League with the wildest pennant race of them all.
AL East Champ: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Toronto Blue Jays are leading the Baltimore Orioles by one game and the Boston Red Sox by 2.5 games, so flipping a three-sided coin might be the best way to call the AL East race.
However, no coin can see that the Blue Jays have the momentum. Whereas the Red Sox were under .500 in June and the Orioles were under .500 in July, the Blue Jays have been better than .500 every month since April. At 14-10, they've also been the best of the three since the All-Star break.
A Toronto pitching staff that already has the AL's second-best ERA at 3.79 got some good depth when the Jays acquired Scott Feldman and Francisco Liriano at the deadline. Meanwhile, the move to a six-man rotation should keep their youngsters (Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman) and veterans (J.A. Happ, R.A. Dickey, Marco Estrada) fresh for the stretch run.
The Blue Jays offense has struggled since the break, but it takes some serious hoop-jumping to doubt the quality of their lineup. Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion are great, and the newly acquired Melvin Upton Jr. and a healthy Devon Travis increase the overall danger level. Jose Bautista's latest injury shouldn't be a deal-breaker.
The Blue Jays aren't going to put a ton of distance between themselves and the Orioles and Red Sox. Although both clubs are dealing with thunderous bats that have gone quiet, they've also gotten problematic pitching staffs squared away. They're going to fight the good fight to the end.
But if this is a question of which team is playing the best baseball and is also the best team on paper, the needle points north of the border.
AL Central Champ: Cleveland Indians
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And now for a division race that's gotten interesting in a hurry. After trailing by 7.5 games as recently as July 20, the Detroit Tigers now only trail the Cleveland Indians by 3.5 games.
The Tigers are in good shape to continue their winning ways (15-10 record) since the break. J.D. Martinez has rejoined Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler in Detroit's lineup, and Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer are guiding a hot pitching staff.
The times in Cleveland haven't been as fun. The Tribe are 11-12 since the break. In part thanks to Danny Salazar's elbow injury, Cleveland's superb pitching staff has gone sour with a 4.69 ERA. The good news is the club's offense is still quite good. The bad news is that Michael Brantley is not walking through that door.
"I never thought we were going to run away and hide in this thing," a candid Terry Francona told Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer. "I wish it didn't happen, but I think it's unrealistic to think someone isn't going to make a run."
But it shouldn't be panic time in Cleveland. The Indians' lead has gotten smaller, but it hasn't yet disappeared. As the two clubs are both hitting well, projecting the future comes down to their pitching. To that end, a staff with names like Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Andrew Miller inspires more confidence than one with Verlander, Fulmer and a random assortment of names.
Apologies for not being bold, but sometimes the easy pick is also the best pick.
AL West Champ: Texas Rangers
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There are easy picks, and then there obvious picks. Like the Texas Rangers in the AL West.
It is obvious, right? The Rangers' seven-game lead in the division is the largest in the American League by plenty. To boot, they took no chances with their actions at the trade deadline.
As I covered at the time, Texas' deals for Carlos Beltran and Jonathan Lucroy solidified the only two weak spots in a lineup that was good to begin with. With the acquisition of Jeremy Jeffress to join Jake Diekman, Tony Barnette, Matt Bush and Keone Kela on the bridge to Sam Dyson, a formerly problematic bullpen was also bolstered at the deadline.
The one area of concern is the Rangers starting rotation. It's presently short on talent outside of Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. But relative to the competition elsewhere in the division, this is more like a minor annoyance than an Achilles' heel.
The Seattle Mariners are the closest team to the Rangers, and they don't have enough pitching to boost their surprisingly consistent offense. The Houston Astros are a tick behind the Mariners but with the opposite problem: They don't have enough bats to support their arms.
It would take a major collapse for the Rangers to miss out on their second straight AL West title. Baseball Prospectus claims there's an 85 percent chance of that not happening. Even that feels a little conservative.
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AL Wild Cards: Tigers and Red Sox
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No. 1 Wild Card: Detroit Tigers
If the Blue Jays pull ahead in the AL East, the Red Sox and Orioles would be left to scuffle with the Tigers for the top wild-card spot, with the Mariners and Astros watching and waiting for an opening.
The Tigers would have the best chance of emerging from this gaggle to host the AL Wild Card Game. It's fair to have reservations about their pitching, but there are good reasons why they've been the AL's best team since the break.
Indians notwithstanding, the Tigers also have the advantage of facing some light competition in the AL Central the rest of the way. That can only help.
No. 2 Wild Card: Boston Red Sox
It's tempting to tab the Mariners to seize the second wild card. They don't seem to have enough pitching, sure. But with Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton pitching well and the super-amazing Edwin Diaz closing games, what pitching they have is legit.
Realistically, though, the race would come down to the Orioles and Red Sox. We talked earlier about how they're in similar states with slumping offenses that undermine improving pitching. If it's a question of which team's lineup is more likely to figure things out, the Red Sox are the better bet.
The Orioles can hit home runs, but that's about the extent of what their offense can do. These Red Sox have hit for power, put the ball in play, drawn walks and run the bases well. They've gotten away from these things since the break, but it's not because they've lost anyone. Their lineup is at full strength. It should be itself again before long, and that'll be a difference-maker.
NL East Champ: Washington Nationals
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The Washington Nationals have a 7.5-game lead in the NL East. That could be the preamble to a bold prediction...but nah. Seven-and-a-half games should be plenty.
To be fair, Washington's offense does have cracks. Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos and Anthony Rendon have been very good of late, but it's a mixed bag outside of them.
If Bryce Harper got hot again, it would go a long way toward easing this concern. But as Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight highlighted, there are good reasons why the reigning NL MVP has gone from great to merely good. Put simply, it's not like Harper's waiting for Lady Luck to do him a solid.
But who needs more offense when you have more than enough pitching?
The Nats are following a solid 3.30 ERA in the first half with a sparkling 2.86 ERA in the second half. Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark are rolling, and Mark Melancon is a fine addition to one of baseball's top bullpens. While he hasn't been there long, he's digging the vibe in Washington.
"There are a lot of leaders on this team as far as speaking up," Melancon told Bill Ladson of MLB.com. "Everybody is jelling together. People are excited to come to the clubhouse every day. People are pulling for each other in the dugout and in the bullpen. It's a real tight-knit group."
The New York Mets need to get healthy before they can even think about going on a run. The Miami Marlins are more of a threat, but their shortage of good starting pitching should keep them from taking off.
NL Central Champ: Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs lead the NL Central by 12 games. Literally 12 games. Also, their 18-6 record since the break is the best in baseball.
Convinced? Well, too bad. There's more to say anyway.
Most of the focus has been on what the Cubs can (or can't) do at the plate. But make no mistake: They are where they are because of their pitching.
After putting up a 3.36 ERA in the first half, the Cubs are suffocating opposing bats with a 2.26 ERA in the second half. Not one of their starters has an ERA over 3.56. As noted by Crazy Cubs Stats, the Cubs are on track to be the first team in over 100 years to have five starters with a WHIP under 1.10.
A team like this shouldn't be allowed to have a good bullpen, but Chicago's pen has a 1.85 ERA in the second half. The addition of Aroldis Chapman will only help it maintain that.
With a lead so big and pitching this good, the Cubs offense can take its time finding its bearings. As it is, the .716 OPS it has in the second half is more "underwhelming" than "bad."
Nothing to see here, really. Just a dang good baseball team that should win its first division title since 2008.
NL West Champ: Los Angeles Dodgers
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This would have been an easy call if Clayton Kershaw's injury had sunk the Los Angeles Dodgers' season. That would have allowed the San Francisco Giants to laugh all the way to the finish in the NL West.
This is why assumptions suck. The Dodgers have gone 23-14 in Kershaw's absence. The Giants have gone 16-21, including 8-16 in the second half. Their lead in the division is a single game.
The Giants can take heart in one reality: At least they're healthy. Snapping out of it is a matter of relearning how to hit with runners in scoring position and getting the rest of their rotation to follow Madison Bumgarner's fine example. They have the players to make these things happen.
The Dodgers are seemingly insisting on not being healthy. That's bad news for their rotation, which could really use a healthy Kershaw and a healthy Rich Hill. With the two of them gone, it's hard to know who to trust in the Dodgers rotation.
It's not all bad, though. The Dodgers offense just keeps getting better and better, and swapping out Yasiel Puig for Josh Reddick should eventually result in another step forward. Coupled with a dominant bullpen that, as manager Dave Roberts told Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated, is the "most important part of our team without a doubt," the Dodgers are equipped to downplay their starting pitching woes.
The NL West feels like a toss-up, as both teams are probably equal in the long run. But since the Dodgers are better in a neck-and-neck race now, pulling ahead in the coming days could be what decides it.
NL Wild Cards: Giants and Cardinals
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No. 1 Wild Card: San Francisco Giants
As badly as the Dodgers and Giants want to win the NL West, both can take comfort in knowing the runner-up is all but guaranteed the top wild-card spot. As of this writing, a four-game lead separates the top wild card from the second wild card.
In this scenario, the Giants would be the (oxymoron incoming) lucky runners-up.
It may look like they have enough collapse potential to bump them to the second wild card or even out of the playoffs. But remember, the rough spot they're going through is a case of everything going wrong at once. They're set up for a repeat of 2014, when they responded to a rough middle with a strong end.
No. 2 Wild Card: St. Louis Cardinals
If the top wild card comes out of the NL West, the second wild card will be up for grabs between the Marlins, Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and possibly the Colorado Rockies.
Realistically, the Mets and Pirates are longer shots than the 2.5-game deficit they're sharing would indicate. The Mets will be dragged down by their injuries. The Pirates aren't as beat up, but they actively got worse at the trade deadline.
It's the Marlins and Cardinals who will fight the real fight for the second wild card. The Marlins have the edge now, but the Cardinals have the trump card: a plus-70 run differential that somehow, some way, is going to lift them out of their nagging mediocrity.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through August 9.
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