Full MLB Award Predictions at the 3-Quarter Mark of the 2016 Season
Roughly three-quarters of the way through the 2016 Major League Baseball season, plenty of things are coming into focus. That includes awards season, so let's take a fresh look at who's in line for hardware.
Ahead lie our latest predictions for the five major awards in the American League and National League: Comeback Player of the Year, Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player.
We're covering who we think will win, not who we think should win. That means taking individual performances into account, as well as whatever preferences the voters tend to have. There's muddy water in that pond, but we'll do our best.
Starting with the Comeback Player of the Year awards, let's take it away.
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers
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Own horn toot: It wasn't even a month ago that I tabbed Ian Desmond as my midseason pick for AL Comeback Player of the Year. Rather than changing my tune, I'm thinking the voters will agree.
Desmond's disastrous 2015 season with the Washington Nationals has given way to an outstanding year with the Texas Rangers. He OPS'd just .674 with 19 home runs and 13 stolen bases in 2015. In 2016, he's OPS'ing .834 with 20 homers and 17 steals.
To boot, he's doing this at an entirely new position. Desmond used to be an erratic shortstop. Now he's an outfielder who, if ultimate zone rating is to be believed, is very good at what he does. Between this and his offense, he's arguably one of the AL's top 10 players.
Somewhat like Francisco Liriano in 2013, Desmond's comeback narrative also extends to his contract. His rejection of a $107 million extension offer begat his terrible 2015 season, which begat just an $8 million offer from the Rangers. That showed what the league thought of him. Now he's showing up the league.
“In the offseason, I couldn’t believe that no other team was trying to get him, no other team was going after him," former teammate Bryce Harper told Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. "What a deal the Rangers got.”
Honorable Mentions: Robinson Cano, Chris Tillman, Rick Porcello, Doug Fister, Colby Lewis
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Wil Myers, San Diego Padres
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Here's another case of me not changing my tune and hoping assuming the voters will go along with it. Wil Myers was my pick for NL Comeback Player of the Year, and he still looks like the man to beat.
Whereas Desmond was only tasked with coming back from one bad year, Myers came into 2016 looking to put two bad seasons behind him. He battled injuries and ineffectiveness with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2014, and it was deja vu all over again with the San Diego Padres last year.
But in 2016, Myers has been nothing short of a superstar. His OPS has risen from a solid .763 in 2015 to a very strong .858, and he's tacked on a career-high 21 homers and 21 steals.
One thing Myers has in common with Desmond is that he's done all of this at a new position. He only got his feet wet at first base in 2015 but is now posting excellent metrics in a full-time role at the not-so-hot corner. He is also arguably a top-10 player in his league.
The competition Myers is facing looks a little stiffer than what Desmond is up against. Marcell Ozuna is a heck of a story, and Tanner Roark's narrative is a threat to gain steam.
But if Prince Fielder could win Comeback Player of the Year coming off one injury-wrecked and unproductive season, Myers should be able to win coming off two such seasons.
Honorable Mentions: Marcell Ozuna, Tanner Roark, Julio Teheran, Jean Segura
AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles
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A good way to win Manager of the Year is to defy expectations. The best way to win it is to defy low expectations. Hence, Buck Showalter winning it for the fourth time.
When people were looking at the AL East this spring, the consensus was that the Baltimore Orioles shouldn't even bother showing up. For example, Joe Peta of ESPN.com advised everyone to take the under on a 74-88 projection for Baltimore's record.
But here we are in August, and the Orioles' 63-48 record ties them atop the AL East and puts them behind only the Rangers in the entire American League.
Of course, Showalter has had the advantage of an offense that leads MLB with 169 home runs. But unlike Cleveland Indians skipper Terry Francona, a fellow contender for the award, Showalter hasn't had the advantage of great starting pitching. With a 4.87 ERA, his starters have been flat-out bad.
That's left it up to Showalter to handle arguably the one thing a good manager can make a difference with: bullpen usage. To that end, he's part of the reason Baltimore's bullpen leads the AL with a 3.09 ERA. Back in May, SB Nation's Alex Conway did a great job of breaking down how Showalter uses his relievers in the right situations: good relievers in high-leverage and not-so-good relievers in low-leverage.
This leads us to some real talk: With virtually any other manager at the helm, the Orioles aren't this good.
Honorable Mentions: Terry Francona, Jeff Banister, Scott Servais, Brad Ausmus
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NL Manager of the Year: Dusty Baker, Washington Nationals
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Hoo boy. This is seriously tough. So tough we need bullet points to break it down:
- Joe Maddon has done well with the Chicago Cubs, but the perception could be the Cubs only lived up to expectations.
- Don Mattingly's Miami Marlins have done more than anyone anticipated, but they're only a good team against bad teams.
- Bruce Bochy has worked more even-year miracles with the San Francisco Giants, but he may have used them all up in the first half.
- Dave Roberts is emerging in this discussion, but some could see the Los Angeles Dodgers' rise as an offshoot of the Giants' demise.
You can take issue with any of the "buts" here, but the NL Manager of the Year race is very much a toss-up that could result in a win for the safest choice. As things stand now, that's Dusty Baker.
At 66-45, Baker's Nationals comfortably lead an NL East that many figured would be the domain of the New York Mets. Although he's benefited from great starting pitching, he's also juggled a hit-or-miss lineup and a bullpen Jonathan Papelbon has tried hard to undermine. He also had to clean up a rotten clubhouse culture. That's a test he's supposedly passed with flying colors.
"Our manager lets us do what we want as far as preparing for the game, and he lets us play," Danny Espinosa said on MLB Network in June. "Obviously, Dusty’s been in the game for a very long time...has had some really good teams. So when he lets us play and lets us be ourselves, the best comes out of everybody.”
This is not an easy call. But it feels like the right one.
Honorable Mentions: Joe Maddon, Don Mattingly, Bruce Bochy, Dave Roberts
AL Rookie of the Year: Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers
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The headline says Michael Fulmer, but he can wait. For now, let's talk about Tyler Naquin.
After all, it's not like he can be ignored. The Tribe's 25-year-old outfielder is hitting .318 with a .987 OPS in 75 games. He's on track for the highest OPS by an AL rookie since Bob Hamelin in 1994.
The cracks in Naquin's rookie season, however, are more likely to hurt him this year than they would have in years past. Voters could hold it against him that he's been used exclusively as a platoon player. If not that, they could count his lousy defensive metrics against him.
Fulmer, on the other hand, comes with fewer nits to pick.
Detroit's 23-year-old right-hander has only made 18 starts, but he's had few missteps in the process of putting up a sparkling 2.43 ERA in 111 innings. That would lead the league by plenty if he had enough innings to qualify. And per Baseball Prospectus' "deserved run average" metric, Fulmer isn't overachieving too much.
Other contenders—not only Naquin, but also Max Kepler, Edwin Diaz and others—would have an opening if the Tigers shut Fulmer down due to concerns over his innings. But it doesn't sound like that's happening.
"I think he can make it all the way, quite frankly, as long as we're smart about it," said Tigers manager Brad Ausmus, per Evan Woodbery of MLive.com.
Honorable Mentions: Tyler Naquin, Max Kepler, Edwin Diaz, Nomar Mazara, Hyun Soo Kim
NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
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And now for something completely different: an MLB awards race with a clear front-runner.
This could have been an interesting discussion a couple of weeks ago, when Corey Seager was jockeying for position in the NL Rookie of the Year race with fellow shortstops Trevor Story and Aledmys Diaz. But then they both got hurt, opening the door for Seager to run away and hide.
To make that happen, he only needs to keep doing what he's been doing. Seager is making good on a promising 2015 breakthrough with a .302 average, .889 OPS and 21 home runs. Throw in his solid defensive metrics and Mike Petriello of MLB.com has a case in stumping for Seager as baseball's best shortstop.
And the league hasn't had much luck figuring Seager out. He's off to a slow-ish start in August, but his batting average has so far risen every month. It turns out everything they said about him being a natural is true.
"He kind of blew my mind when I was down in Triple-A for that rehab assignment [last season]," Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal told ESPN.com's Doug Padilla. "He was spraying balls, sitting on pitches. He's very smart and knows what he wants to do. He's been able to stay there the whole year, and it just seems like he's getting better. And it's scary to say that."
This isn't the last time Seager's name will be mentioned here. But that's for another slide.
Honorable Mentions: Trevor Story, Aledmys Diaz, Junior Guerra
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
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It's impossible to weigh all the variables at play in the American League Cy Young race without getting a splitting headache, so let's cut to the chase:
Justin Verlander is the best bet to win it.
It's not that he's a clear front-runner. There's no such thing in this race. But if the idea is to spot the guy who has strong traditional stats and strong peripherals and who's threatening to only get better down the stretch, Verlander's the guy.
Detroit's 33-year-old ace has a 12-6 record with a 3.52 ERA over 153.1 innings. His innings are second in the AL to David Price. His ERA only ranks 15th in the AL. But with 9.6 strikeouts and 2.4 walks per nine innings, his 2.86 deserved run average is right about him deserving better.
Plus, Verlander's ERA is headed in the right direction. He's caught fire with a 1.85 ERA in his seven starts since July. Not so coincidentally, Brooks Baseball shows he's rediscovered fastball velocity he hasn't had since early 2014.
Verlander is up against some tough customers, including Cole Hamels, Corey Kluber, Aaron Sanchez, Chris Sale, J.A. Happ and super-reliever Zach Britton. Make no mistake: This is a royal rumble that any of them could win.
But when the dust clears, nobody should be surprised if Verlander is clutching his second AL Cy Young.
Honorable Mentions: Cole Hamels, Corey Kluber, Aaron Sanchez, Chris Sale, J.A. Happ, Zach Britton
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
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This should have been easy. So, so easy. But then Clayton Kershaw's back decided to be a jerk. Thanks for nothing, Clayton Kershaw's back.
With Kershaw out of the picture, the NL Cy Young race is about as wide-open as the one in the AL. This once again forces us to go with the safest bet: Max Scherzer.
ESPN.com's Cy Young predictor suggests he's the wrong National to side with, because surely he can't hope to top Stephen Strasburg's 15-2 record and 2.80 ERA. But there's more than enough hope that Scherzer will draw attention away not only from Strasburg, but everyone else as well.
He's faring fine from a traditional standpoint, putting up a 12-6 record with a 2.87 ERA in 156.2 innings. He's third in the NL in innings and 10th in ERA. And like Verlander, Scherzer's 2.72 deserved run average claims his ERA should be even better.
Apart from a league-high 24 home runs, Scherzer's peripherals are outstanding. His rate of 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings has led to an MLB-high 198 strikeouts, and those come with only 38 walks (or 2.2 per nine innings). And with a 1.84 ERA over his last dozen starts, he's is showing no signs of slowing down.
Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Jose Fernandez and Jacob deGrom aren't going to go quietly. But with Kershaw down and out, Scherzer has a great chance of winning his second Cy Young.
Honorable Mentions: Stephen Strasburg, Madison Bumgarner, Jose Fernandez, Jacob deGrom, Kyle Hendricks
AL MVP: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
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MVP, eh? That means we must consult wins above replacement. According to both Baseball-Reference.com's and FanGraphs' calculations, the AL MVP is a three-horse race between Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson and Jose Altuve.
May the shortest of them win.
With an MLB-high .356 average and 155 hits, Altuve has taken his pesky hitter act to new heights. He's also added a new dimension with a career-high 19 home runs. With 25 stolen bases, his increased power hasn't come at the expense of his speed. And amazingly, he's only gotten hotter in the second half.
All of this has been in service to a Houston Astros team that, at just 57-54 with him, might be under .500 without him. From the sound of things, they know how lucky they are to have their 5'6" second baseman.
“It’s kind of a joke in here," outfielder Colby Rasmus told Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. "We’re all struggling to get hits—blasting balls into the shift or whatever—and it’s like he’s got this innate ability to get three hits a night against the best pitching in the world.”
Richard Justice of MLB.com has Altuve ranked No. 1 ahead of Trout and Donaldson in his own appraisal of the AL MVP race. That probably goes for a lot of voters, who figure to penalize Trout for playing on a bad team and Donaldson for being surrounded by a lot more talent than Altuve.
Honorable Mentions: Mike Trout, Josh Donaldson, Mookie Betts, David Ortiz
NL MVP: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
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The National League WAR leaderboards at Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs paint a simple picture of the NL MVP race: It's Kris Bryant, a handful of pitchers and then everyone else.
This sounds too easy...and yet, it's not the wrong idea.
There should be nothing wrong with a pitcher winning the MVP, but the voters don't like to select pitchers unless it's obvious they have to. And this year, there's no 2011 Justin Verlander or 2014 Clayton Kershaw.
As for Bryant, the fact is he offers very little to complain about. With a .928 OPS and 27 home runs, he's one of the NL's top hitters. It would be great if he had more RBI, but he can make up for that. If good defense is worth points, good defense at multiple positions should be worth extra.
A slow second half could shake Bryant's position atop the polls, opening the door for Corey Seager, Daniel Murphy or dark horse Nolan Arenado. Any of them could be boosted by a narrative claiming they put teams of lesser quality than the Cubs on their shoulders.
But Bryant having a slow second half is not a foregone conclusion. He's slugged only two home runs since the break, but he's maintained his approach with a .280 average and .392 on-base percentage. As long as he keeps that up, his power won't stay hidden forever.
Bryant might not be an ideal MVP candidate. But sometimes, it really is as simple as going for the best player on the best team.
Honorable Mentions: Corey Seager, Daniel Murphy, Nolan Arenado
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
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