10 Predictions for the 2016 MLB Waiver Trade Window
Although the MLB non-waiver trade deadline passed on Monday afternoon, the trading window hasn't yet fully closed.
Teams can still arrange trades by placing players on revocable waivers. If someone clears, he's eligible to get dealt in August. If a franchise doesn't want to outright relinquish the rights to a claimed player, it can pull him back and negotiate with that team during a 48-hour window.
The process hinders stars from switching clubs, but contenders can still locate solid pieces for their playoff aspirations. Last year, waiver acquisition Addison Reed became a vital late-inning reliever during the New York Mets' World Series run, and he boasts a 1.97 ERA as their setup man this season.
Danny Valencia, Mike Napoli, Chase Utley and Fernando Rodney also changed teams last August, so don't turn off the hot stove just yet. While the majority of players waived will get yanked back, some interesting names could stir the pot. It's not all for show, as a few veterans still have a strong chance of going elsewhere before September 1, when a player must be on a team to hold postseason eligibility.
Let's sift through some predictions for a less eventful, yet still noteworthy waiver period.
Atlanta Braves Remember They're Rebuilding
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Most teams that enter the trade deadline with baseball's worst record leave with a few new farmhands to bolster their systems. The Atlanta Braves instead swapped bad contracts with the San Diego Padres, flipping Hector Olivera for Matt Kemp.
It's a weird, short-term upgrade with long-term ramifications for a franchise that needs to play the long game. Now the team's highest-paid player, Kemp's contract is one the Braves will spend the next three years trying to shed.
They made a similarly bizarre move on the free-agent front before 2015, signing Nick Markakis to a four-year, $44 million agreement right as they initiated a lengthy rebuilding phase. Instead of developing young talent, Atlanta has watched the veteran outfielder hit nine home runs over 1,139 plate appearances.
Since he still makes steady contact with a double-digit walk rate, some team might be willing to take the 32-year-old for a low-level prospect. The Braves should gladly comply.
Against all odds, veteran reliever Jim Johnson converted four saves last week for a 37-win team. It may have been done as a practical joke, but he won National League Player of the Week for successfully navigating those four innings.
More importantly, the 33-year-old has recorded a 1.82 ERA since June 1. A well-known reliever past his prime but not completely washed up offers the perfect formula for a waiver deal. Besides, the Braves are better off building up the future value of Ian Krol or Mauricio Cabrera with irregular ninth-inning reps.
Derek Norris Trade Talks Pause Until Winter
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Two days before the non-waiver deadline, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal called Derek Norris a "near lock" to change teams. He also labeled the San Diego Padres catcher a more likely target for the Texas Rangers than Jonathan Lucroy, whom the Milwaukee Brewers sent to Texas.
In other words, nobody ever really knows what will happen on the trade market. Rather than jettisoning their struggling starter, the Padres focused their energy elsewhere to unload Kemp and several others.
Exiling Norris makes sense at first glance. The 27-year-old is batting .192, and Austin Hedges continues to decimate Triple-A opponents with a .350/.391/.670 slash line. Without having to worry about chasing a playoff spot, they could give the sizzling 23-year-old prospect an extended look down the stretch anyway.
Yet despite his offensive fall, Norris maintains value as an excellent receiver behind the plate. While San Diego needs his bat to heat up, it will also depend on him to catch a new rotation as he keeps the spot warm for Hedges.
An affordable catcher in his peak playing years won't get involved in August trade activity, so look for trade buzz around Norris to resume this winter.
Cincinnati Reds Move Brandon Phillips
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Brandon Phillips is now blocking two talented young second basemen.
Shortly before Monday's deadline, the Cincinnati Reds shipped Jay Bruce to the New York Mets for a package including Dilson Herrera. The 22-year-old, widely believed to be in line for a starting role next season, is hitting well in Triple-A (.295/.367/.386) for the second straight year.
Herrera is the type of player a last-place team should audition over the final months. So is Jose Peraza, a speed demon who has swiped 10 bags despite reaching base only 27 times in 93 plate appearances.
Phillips, on the other hand, is a 35-year-old batting .261/.298/.367 with a minus-0.3 WAR. If the Reds didn't want to pay Jay Bruce next year, they shouldn't have any interest in spending $14 million for a below-replacement-level veteran during another losing campaign.
A post-deadline deal would represent an unceremonious departure for someone who joined the Reds a decade ago, but the Phillies parted ways with Utley in similar fashion last August. If they don't find any takers, they should simply bench Phillips to audition their fresh faces.
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Danny Valencia Moves in August Again
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Even though Danny Valencia was hitting .296/.331/.506 for them last year, the Toronto Blue Jays made the puzzling choice to designate him for assignment. With the Oakland Athletics, he netted an .886 OPS over the final 47 games of 2015 and is currently their best offensive contributor.
In spite of his success at the plate, Valencia has lost some playing time at third base to rookie Ryon Healy because of his subpar defense. Even more surprising, the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser suggested in mid-July that Oakland could designate him for assignment, just as Toronto did last year.
Valencia remained in Oakland past the deadline, so Slusser was likely right about the lack of trade interest. Everyone is now stuck in a no-win situation, as the A's failed to sell a .302/.355/.483 hitter who has now spent three of the last five games sidelined.
Another August departure is the only logical solution. This could mean another DFA if nobody places a claim, but it's baffling that teams suddenly care about defense when it comes to Valencia. Such worries didn't stop the rebuilding Atlanta Braves from welcoming Kemp or the Mets bringing aboard their fifth corner outfielder in Bruce.
Valencia would have made a ton more sense for either of those teams, especially a Mets club missing three of its starting infielders. Wielding a career .889 OPS against left-handed pitchers, he would especially help the Cleveland Indians or St. Louis Cardinals fortify their offense when facing southpaws.
Yasiel Puig Clears Waivers but Stays Put
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The Yasiel Puig saga took another odd turn on Monday. According to USA Today's Bob Nightengale, the Los Angeles Dodgers told him not to join the team to Colorado after informing him that he'd be traded or demoted.
They didn't trade him. A 25-year-old once believed to be one of baseball's brightest upcoming superstars will now play in the minors as the Dodgers fight for a playoff bid.
Puig's slugging percentage, which has dropped at least 40 points each season, has once again plummeted. A mark that stood at .534 in 2013 has now depreciated to .386, and he also holds a career-low 5.9 walk percentage.
The Dodgers placed him on waivers last year, but they pulled him back when another team placed a claim, according to ESPN's Jayson Stark. Since their frustration with his Benjamin Button stat line relegated the mercurial outfielder to Triple-A, it seems likely they'll put him through the process again.
Will anyone bother to claim him this time? Fox Sports' Jon Morosi said it's "very possible" Puig clears, as his contract no longer looks like a major bargain. Then again, he batted .308/.390/.440 in 28 games since returning from the disabled list. Despite all of the turmoil, there's no reason to believe the Dodgers would let him walk for nothing.
A divorce seems inevitable, but now isn't the right time. Look for Puig to return in late August or September and salvage some trade value before the offseason.
Kansas City Royals Trade Kendrys Morales
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The Kansas City Royals aren't going back to the World Series.
After dropping eight of their last 11 games, the reigning champions have fallen to 51-55. The rotation has derailed from serviceable to detestable, and the Royals are currently without third baseman Mike Moustakas and All-Star closer Wade Davis. Trailing seven teams in the American League wild-card hunt, they must accept their reality and plan ahead to 2017.
That blueprint probably does not include Kendrys Morales, who will enter free agency unless both parties agree to an $11 million mutual option. Kansas City shouldn't foot that bill for a designated hitter brandishing a .739 OPS and 97 weighted runs created plus (wRC+).
His massive slumps and defensive limitations may stop teams from making a claim, but a torrid June (.402/.453/.655) should pique some front office's interest enough to take a low-risk flier.
Even though no prominent AL contender needs a new designated hitter, an NL squad might want a premium pinch hitter who can occasionally play first. Anybody who acquires him would also have to buy out the 2017 option for $1.5 million, but that's not a massive sum for a championship hopeful who wouldn't need to forfeit a significant prospect.
Chicago White Sox Flip James Shields
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The James Shields trade started as horribly as a trade could. In his first three starts with the Chicago White Sox—right after allowing 10 runs to conclude his Padres tenure—the 34-year-old righty surrendered 21 earned runs in 8.2 innings.
The White Sox, who have fallen below .500 and out of the playoff picture, are likely having a Gob Bluth moment with Shields. One of the game's most dependable hurlers now holds a 4.92 ERA. His 6.12 strikeouts and 3.80 walks per nine innings are each career worsts.
So is Chicago now stuck with a malfunctioning pitcher due $42 million over the next two years? Maybe not. Shields has turned a corner, posting a 2.94 ERA in eight starts since his catastrophic debut. He went at least six innings in six straight outings and worked into the eighth frame three times in July.
His revival could open the window for a second swap this season. If his hot streak offers the White Sox a mulligan, they need to take it.
Although San Diego is paying more than half of his remaining salary, the remaining $27 million will still see him through waivers, where a desperate contender may be waiting. While he hasn't honored the Big Game James moniker, perhaps some team would be willing to overlook his 5.46 career postseason ERA in favor of stability and a good rhyme.
Philadelphia Phillies Hold On to Jeremy Hellickson
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A few days ago, many onlookers identified Jeremy Hellickson as one of the players most certain to change teams by Monday. As one of three teams with a run differential worse than minus-100 heading into the non-waiver deadline, the Philadelphia Phillies had every reason to move him before his contract expired.
Instead, they surprisingly stood pat. According to SB Nation's Chris Cotillo, the Phillies wanted a team's top-five prospect in return for Hellickson. Since nobody met the asking price, they will likely extend him a $17 million qualifying offer in hopes of him rejecting and netting them a compensatory pick, as Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal noted.
It's a dangerous gambit, but the 29-year-old has bolstered his market value with a 3.70 ERA in 131.1 innings this season. A poor pitcher market could persuade the right-hander to reject the offer sheet and seek a more lucrative contract elsewhere.
Either way, he's not going to clear waivers, which limits the Phillies' negotiations to one potential trading partner. If nothing struck their fancy before Monday, they won't agree to a downgraded offer from someone paying for less than two months of his service.
Rather than taking a mid-tier prospect, the Phillies will try to gain a valuable amateur draft pick instead. While Hellickson could draw substantial interest on the free-agent market, the same teams unwilling to give Philadelphia a top-flight prospect will also avoid coughing up a first-round selection. It may behoove him to take the one-year offer and restart this cycle next summer.
Seattle Mariners Sell Steve Cishek
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In a rare prime-time appearance Sunday night, the Seattle Mariners entered the ninth inning sporting a 6-3 lead against the Chicago Cubs. Steve Cishek blew the easiest save opportunity possible.
The following day, he dished up a game-deciding homer to Mookie Betts, dropping Seattle to .500.
Stuck in no man's land, the Mariners stood pat at the deadline. They are third in the American League West and are trailing four teams in the wild-card race. Although the schedule gets easier in August, a poor week or two could erase whatever slim playoff hopes remain intact.
Cishek was enjoying a bounce-back year before surrendering eight runs over his last 11 outings. His ERA ballooned from 2.39 to 3.40 in a month.
Meanwhile, a star is blossoming in Seattle's bullpen. Edwin Diaz has accumulated 52 strikeouts in 26 frames while registering a 1.73 ERA. The 22-year-old rookie looks ready to headline the reliever corps, and Mariners manager Scott Servais agrees.
After Monday's loss, per Tacoma News Tribune's Bob Dutton, Servais said Diaz will supplant Cishek as Seattle's ninth-inning option. The rookie made an immediate statement on Tuesday night, striking out the side to earn his first career save.
Cishek's downward spiral makes him expendable, but his fabled closer experience could still net the Mariners a decent minor leaguer.
New York Yankees Aren’t Finished
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The New York Yankees earned rave reviews for their pre-deadline deals. Impressed by the acquisitions of Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield and Dillon Tate, ESPN.com's Keith Law credited the Evil Empire with "one of the top three farm systems in all of baseball, with the best collection of position-player prospects left in the minors and more talent close to the majors than even the Atlanta Braves or San Diego Padres have."
After trading Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran, only the most delusional Yankees fans still harbor hopes of a playoff appearance this season. General manager Brian Cashman is on a roll, so why leave the table?
He would gladly give away Jacoby Ellsbury, C.C. Sabathia or Alex Rodriguez, but don’t expect any suitors to surface. However, Mark Teixeira, who is in the final months of a massive eight-year contract, could perhaps convince a contender to bring him aboard.
The 36-year-old is batting below the Mendoza Line (.195) while once again struggling to stay healthy, but his reputation could intrigue a club eager for pop. If the Yankees are truly committed to a patient rebuild, Chase Headley, Brett Gardner and Brian McCann also may become waiver trade candidates.
Cashman could start loading up for 2017, too. SI.com's Jay Jaffe proposed welcoming David Robertson back from the Chicago White Sox. With a deep farm and deeper pockets, the world is Cashman's oyster.
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