2016 Fantasy Football: Who Are the Most Overrated Fantasy Prospects?

Believe it or not, but your fourth-round pick in your fantasy football draft is likely to be overrated. 

That might not necessarily be your fault, as many websites have their own rankings, and you pick from there.

Then again, wait—it is your fault! Don't just draft whoever the next best running back is according to rankings on the respective site's draft pool.

An overrated player is relative. Whether it is his average draft position or just the player in general, there are more than the 10 overrated players you'll find in this slideshow.

Fantasy football is a strange game: players come out of nowhere and thrive, every running back gets hurt, the list goes on and on.

Last year, we saw running backs such as Joseph Randle of the Dallas Cowboys and Ameer Abdullah of the Detroit Lions get drafted way too high, only to become irrelevant a few weeks later. Or, in Randle's case, fall completely out of the league.

I'm here to prevent you from falling into the trap of a player's brand and concentrate more on value. Here's to hoping I'm at least 50 percent right on these.

Speaking of Abdullah, he is a nice transition to the first slide.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, Detroit Lions

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A flawless transition, no?

I don't know why Detroit Lions running back Ameer Abdullah is being drafted ahead of guys such as Oakland Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree, Jacksonville Jaguars running back Chris Ivory, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver John Brown and perhaps the biggest abomination of all Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett in standard leagues. In points-per-reception formats, he's still going ahead of Crabtree and Ivory.

I'm going to faint.

During his rookie season in 2015, Abdullah was one of the most uninspiring backs in football.

In games that he logged 10 or more carries, he averaged a mere 3.85 yards per carry. Abdullah carried the ball 10 or more times on six occasions in 2015.

Last year, we witnessed the emergence of his teammate Theo Riddick (who is really more of a wide receiver with as much as he catches the ball, but oh well).

As a result, Abdullah will see limited targets again, especially with the Lions' offseason additions of wide receivers Anquan Boldin and Marvin Jones.

In 2015, Abdullah saw just 35 targets, and he could see even less than that in 2016.

Also, he is not used in pass-blocking situations whatsoever, seeing just a mere 20 snaps in that situation.

To conclude, I have doubts about Abdullah as a full-time back due to the presence of Riddick. He won't catch the ball ever and will not be used in pass-blocking situations.

Stay away. He's not even a top-35 running back this year.

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

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Part of my thought process here is that I'm not sure if Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin finishes as the best fantasy receiver on his own team.

As of right now, Baldwin is being drafted as the WR25 in PPR leagues, according to Fantasy Football Calculator. That draft position equates to a low-end WR2.

That's OK and all, but his teammate Tyler Lockett is being drafted almost a full three rounds later, which should not be the case.

While I'm not questioning Baldwin's abilities, we did see him break out in a way in 2015 that is not sustainable.

From Weeks 12 to 16, he totaled 11 receiving touchdowns.

That is absurd.

What makes Baldwin overrated is that some people are drafting him based on his unreal production from last year and are overlooking the receiver who could be a top-25 wide receiver in fantasy.

If I were you, I would draft Lockett before Baldwin. 

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

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This one was a bit risky, but hear me out.

In 2015, Edelman played well before and even after his foot injury, which sidelined him most of the season. However, he underwent a second foot surgery that has landed him on the active/PUP list. As a result, he will likely not practice until the latter part of camp, though Ryan Hannable of WEEI.com reported Edelman was running routes on the sideline last week.

Once he's recovered, question marks will still linger. Edelman relies on his route running and ability to cut quickly. He's not the biggest or fastest guy, and his injury may impact his game.

With quarterback Tom Brady being suspended the first four games and the additions of wide receiver Chris Hogan and tight end Martellus Bennett, it is easy to forecast a dip in production for Edelman. The New England Patriots will use Hogan more than you think, and Bennett should be a red-zone target.

Right now, Edelman is going as the WR19 in PPR leagues, and there is little to no upside for him at that price and in the third round.

While I would still draft Edelman in PPR leagues, there is a caveat: His production will dip.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys

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Yes, Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott should be really good. Yes, the Cowboys offensive line is good. And you're right: There is basically no threat to his workload.

However, he is still a rookie running back. While that may seem cliche, I'm not at all comfortable drafting him over guys such as New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski (although I'm not a fan of him in the first round), Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson and San Diego Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen.

Although Elliott will be productive, he's going a little too high for my liking.

Elliott isn't overrated, but his draft position is. If you're that hellbent on him, you'll need to take him in the first round—he won't be there after that.

Matt Forte, RB, New York Jets

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Fantasy footballers—this isn't 2014. Why are you drafting New York Jets running back Matt Forte as a fringe RB1 in 12-team leagues?

In what way, shape or form will Forte finish as an RB1? None.

Forte is at a point in his career where 200 carries may be a tough task to put on his shoulders. He's accumulated 2,000 lifetime carries and is now into his 30s. Plus, he is in a backfield with Bilal Powell, who does well catching the ball and should see his fair share of touches.

You couple those points with the wide receiving options that the Jets have in Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall, and it forces you to wonder how many targets Forte will actually get.

A running back who won't be a big part of the passing game and who will likely see less than 200 carries is not an RB1 in any format.

Do not draft him in the third round at his current RB13 price. Powell is a much better value at RB44.

Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

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Let's try this one again.

This is the second season in a row in which I've dubbed Atlanta Falcons running back Devonta Freeman as overrated.

That assessment was incorrect last season.

However, this season is a different ballgame.

Although Freeman finished with 11 rushing touchdowns, his yardage was reminiscent of Doug Baldwin's touchdown scoring spree. In the first seven weeks of the season, Freeman managed to cross the century mark in yardage four times.

Yet from Week 8 on, he did not reach 100 yards again. After Week 8, he did not hit 75 rushing yards until the final game of the season.

Last season, his teammate Tevin Coleman suffered a couple of injuries and missed some time throughout the season, which assisted in the rise of Freeman's production.

In fact, at the beginning of last season, Coleman was named the starter.

With Coleman's receiving and home run ability, he should challenge Freeman at a different level than last year, which means the latter is not worthy of being a second-round pick, as Fantasy Football Calculator shows.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Washington Redskins

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Washington Redskins wide receiver DeSean Jackson is a tough guy to peg.

If you looked up the phrase "boom or bust" in the dictionary, it would be a picture of Jackson smiling from ear to ear.

Although he missed multiple games to start his 2015 campaign with the Redskins, Jackson did manage to score four touchdowns in five games. Nonetheless, his stat lines fluctuated too often for anyone to rely on him.

Jackson has the potential to blow the top off defenses, but when you factor in his inconsistencies and the team's addition of first-round wide receiver Josh Doctson, Jackson makes for a risky pick.

Right now ,he is being drafted in the eighth round, which I'm fine with, but Fantasy Football Calculator shows him going as early as the fifth round—that's not good.

I'd rather own San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith and Detroit Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones—both of whom are being drafted after Jackson.

Jeremy Langford, RB, Chicago Bears

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At first glance, the appeal of Chicago Bears running back Jeremy Langford is understandable.

However, his average draft position of RB23 is frightening.

I'm not sure I'd even draft him as an RB3.

Langford finished virtually the worst in the following categories, according to Pro Football Focus: elusive rating, breakaway percentage, drops and pass-blocking efficiency among players to play in a minimum of 25 percent of their respective teams' snaps.

This shows inadequacies in areas that I'm not willing to bet on when it comes to the RB2 on my fantasy team.

In addition, Bears head coach John Fox has never run a bell cow.

In fact, according to Dan Durkin of The Athletic, just once during Fox's head coaching career has a running back had more than 60 percent of that team's carries.

It's also worth pointing out that Fox has gone on record saying that he plans to stick with a committee.

Because of his poor showing in the categories above, his pedestrian yards per carry (3.6) and the addition of incoming rookie back Jordan Howard, Langford's current ADP as the RB23 is overrated. 

DeMarco Murray, RB, Tennessee Titans

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Like last season, Tennessee Titans running back DeMarco Murray is categorized as overrated and a bust. 

According to Fantasy Football Calculator, he is going as the RB19, and if you've ever seen the "too damn high" memes, those apply here.

While Titans head coach Mike Mularkey says that the team will run more plays out of the I formation, according to Paul Kuharsky of ESPN.com, that may be ineffective in the long run.

In college, quarterback Marcus Mariota rarely played under center, and when he joined the NFL, the Titans ran a fair amount of plays out of shotgun because it fits his skill set better.

We saw how Murray fared behind an offensive line that wasn't the impenetrable fortress that was the 2014 Dallas Cowboys line and while trying to make plays out of shotgun with the Philadelphia Eagles last season.

He's not nearly as effective.

When Murray was first traded, the volume argument was the biggest and best case for him. However, the Titans thwarted that idea with the draft selection of Derrick Henry out of Alabama.

Under Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, Henry was more than familiar with a plethora of quirky run plays. He showed success from the shotgun, I formation and pistol.

In 2015, the Titans were a below-average run-blocking offensive line, ranking 23rd. Although they picked up Jack Conklin in the draft, you have to wonder how much the offensive line will really improve.

All in all, between the addition of Henry, the subpar offensive line and my lack of confidence in Mariota under center, Murray projects as more of an RB3.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina Panthers

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For the past few years, Carolina Panthers running back Jonathan Stewart has been hyped up, only to disappoint his owners by the end of the season.

2015 was an exception—not because of Stewart's performance, but because he managed to stay healthy for the most part when every other starting NFL running back had some body part break, tear or rupture.

You have to admit that it's tough to envision 2016 resulting in the same injury plague across the running back landscape. 2016 will expose Stewart.

First, he is no receiving back. Stewart did not even see one target in three games and recorded just 16 receptions in 2015.

While he did total 989 rushing yards in the regular season, he averaged just over four yards per carry in more than 240 attempts.

Amassing that many attempts could be a long shot this season, with second-year running back Cameron Artis-Payne having a year under his belt, wide receiver Devin Funchess also coming into his sophomore season and the return of the Panthers' No. 1 wide receiver, Kelvin Benjamin.

Right now, Stewart is being drafted as low-end RB2. While there are only a few guys I'd rather have over him, his ADP isn't that bad.

Nonetheless, Stewart is an overrated fantasy commodity. His seven total touchdowns probably represent his ceiling. Do not keep your hopes up with Stewart. I'd be more comfortable with him as my RB3 in PPR leagues where he is less valuable.

Stats courtesy of Pro Football Focus, ESPN and Pro-Football-Reference.com. All ADP references courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator. 

Follow me on Twitter @RichardJanvrin.