Rose Namajunas vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown
UFC 201 will feature a big strawweight showdown in the co-main event.
No. 3-ranked Rose Namajunas (5-2) meets No. 7-ranked Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0) inside the Octagon.
Namajunas shined on The Ultimate Fighter and came out the other end a star for the UFC. After battering Paige VanZant this past December, Namajunas re-assumed her spot among the elite at 115 pounds. She then avenged a loss to Tecia Torres in April.
Kowalkiewicz has slowly worked her way up the ladder in the division. She scored a win over Mizuki Inoue in Invicta and has won both her UFC bouts with impressive striking displays. Now she faces her toughest test to date.
UFC strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk will be watching this fight closely, as the winner will be in prime position to challenge for her gold.
Which sensational fighter has the edge in this matchup? Let's break down the all the areas and find out who gets her hand raised in Atlanta with a head-to-toe breakdown of Namajunas vs. Kowalkiewicz.
Rankings are based on Bleacher Report's July MMA rankings.
Striking
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Both women are quality strikers in their own rights, and as the majority of this fight is likely to take place on the feet it is imperative for both contenders to be on point Saturday.
Namajunas will have a height advantage, but Kowalkiewicz matches her with a 65" reach. However, reach is not measured with legs, where Namajunas may be more effective in keeping Kowalkiewicz at bay. Namajunas has a variety of kicks in her arsenal to utilize.
Unfortunately, Namajunas has allowed fighters to get inside several times. She isn't afraid to mix it up, but against someone as skilled as Kowalkiewicz it is not the best tactic to get drawn into a slugfest.
In her last outing, Namajunas struggled with the pressure and output of Torres. Torres outstruck Namajunas while being at a five-inch reach disadvantage, a great sign for Kowalkiewicz. In her two UFC bouts, Kowalkiewicz averaged 6.17 significant strikes landed per minute (per FightMetric), more than double that of Namajunas.
The matchup could boil down to one simple question: What will Namajunas' striking strategy be in this fight?
While both have good stand-up abilities, Kowalkiewicz's output and pressure give her the slight edge.
Edge: Kowalkiewicz
Grappling
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The edge goes to Namajunas, but being successful with takedowns will not be easy. Kowalkiewicz is stellar with her defense.
According to FightMetric, Kowalkiewicz has defended 95 percent of takedown attempts in her two fights. More importantly, both fights came against women who were primarily grapplers.
Namajunas, however, may be able to be more effective with her attempts for two reasons: length and versatility. Namajunas' striking can open up pockets of opportunity to exploit, and she is excellent at using her long limbs to trip opponents.
Kowalkiewicz gives up the edge by not being an offensive grappler, but she has shown solid abilities once on the ground and with her defense. Namajunas simply offers more offense and an ability to control in the clinch.
Edge: Namajunas
Submissions
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The result here is similar to that of the previous slide. Namajunas' offensive differential gives her the edge.
The prospect broke onto the scene in 2013 with back-to-back submissions in Invicta FC. None were more impressive than her 12-second flying armbar against Kathina Catron. Her wide-ranging submission abilities make her a fun fighter to watch and a difficult fighter to prepare for in the cage.
Namajunas' jiu-jitsu is still underrated in spite of four submission victories.
She has everything in her tool kit to submit Kowalkiewicz, but the Polish fighter will not go easily into the night. She has solid defense and knows positioning. If Namajunas is to finish Kowalkiewicz, she will have to be methodical and set up her submission with precision.
Edge: Namajunas
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X-Factors
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Kowalkiewicz's X-Factor: Clinch Defense
Kowalkiewicz is a talented striker at range, perhaps only second to Jedrzejczyk in the division. However, she will need to be on point with her clinch defense against Namajunas.
Namajunas can use excellent elbows and knees while inside, and her leg trips are outstanding. Kowalkiewicz will have to shut them down in order to win the fight. If Namajunas executes a trip and assumes top position, Kowalkiewicz's path to victory narrows.
Watch who controls the clinch.
Namajunas' X-Factor: Emotions
Like many fighters, Namajunas sometimes allows her emotions to dictate what she does inside the cage. She cannot allow that to happen on Saturday.
She can stand and trade with Kowalkiwicz, but she has to be measured and choose her opportunities. Namajunas needs to utilize a smart strategy of using her jab and leg kicks. Attempting to retaliate in a firefight, or wanting to prove her striking ability, will open her up to what Kowalkiewicz does best.
The fight at UFC 201 will be crucial to Namajunas' development as a tactical fighter. Will she and her team come in with a quality gameplan, can she stick to it and will they be able to make adjustments when needed?
We will find out.
Prediction
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The UFC 201 matchup could be a title eliminator, and the high-stakes bout could steal the show.
Although she was remarkable on The Ultimate Fighter, Namajunas was still too green to assume a top position in the division. Her performance against Carla Esparza showed just that.
But that fight aided her career in remarkable ways. In just 10 months, Namajunas returned like a whole new fighter and has looked excellent since.
However, her fight against Torres showed deficiencies she still needs to fix, and those deficiencies are areas Kowalkiewicz can exploit to win the fight.
The Polish striker will be able to keep a high pace and make Namajunas circle the cage. More importantly, she'll be able to land strikes and defend takedown attempts. It will be a tightly contested fight, but one Kowalkiewicz edges due to her striking output.
Jedrzejczyk will be watching intently, and, if the prediction holds, we are on our way to the first Poland vs. Poland UFC championship match in history.
Prediction: Karolina Kowalkiewicz defeats Rose Namajunas by unanimous decision.
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