Odds of Each Top Remaining 2016 MLB Trade Target Being Dealt on Deadline Day
The 2016 MLB non-waiver trade deadline is just two days away, and as the rumors continue to pour in, we are starting to get a better idea of who will be on the move.
Predicting how things will play out and where potential trade chips will land is generally an exercise in futility, but that's never stopped us from trying.
We created odds for all the notable names being thrown around this year to establish who may be moving. To make it easier to digest, we broke the odds into six different tiers:
- 100-1: It would be downright shocking if these guys were traded.
- 25-1: It would be surprising if these guys were traded.
- 2-1: The smart money is on these guys staying put, but it wouldn't be surprising if they were traded.
- 1-1: It's a coin flip whether or not these guys will be traded.
- 1-2: The smart money is on these guys being traded, but it wouldn't be surprising if they stay put.
- 1-10: These guys can pack their bags; they're as good as gone.
We highlighted a couple players within each tier and then provided a full list of players also in that odds range.
We'll find out Monday evening how everything played out.
100-1 Odds
1 of 6
It would be downright shocking if these guys were traded...
CF Lorenzo Cain, Kansas City Royals
Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball wrote July 22 that the Kansas City Royals could be sellers, speculating they could go as far as to shop 2015 All-Star Lorenzo Cain.
Now doesn't seem to be the time, though.
The center fielder's track record and $11 million salary next year give him value, but he just returned from a hamstring injury Friday. He was not having the best season before he hit the disabled list, with a .752 OPS over 307 plate appearances. An offseason deal would make more sense on the Royals' end.
SP Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
On Tuesday, I broke down what it might take to pry Chris Sale away from the Chicago White Sox and who might have the young talent to pull off such a blockbuster.
Heyman reported July 22 the White Sox were willing to listen to offers for everyone on their roster, including Sale.
The 27-year-old left-hander is one of the game's elite pitchers, and he's under an extremely team-friendly contract with just $38 million owed to him over the next three years. Unless someone offers an absolutely astronomical return package, he won't be going anywhere.
Others of Note
- SP Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds
- SP Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
- RP Kelvin Herrera, Kansas City Royals
- CF Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves
- SP James Paxton, Seattle Mariners
- RP Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
- SP Dan Straily, Cincinnati Reds
- SP Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
- RP Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
- SP Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
25-1 Odds
2 of 6
It would be surprising if these guys were traded...
LF Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
It's been a terrific season for Milwaukee Brewers slugger Ryan Braun, as he's hitting .321/.383/.515 with 17 doubles, 14 home runs and 46 RBI in 358 plate appearances.
While that's made him a popular subject of trade speculation, his contract remains a significant sticking point in finding a viable deal.
The 32-year-old is owed $76 million over the next four years, with a $15 million mutual option that carries a $4 million buyout, per Spotrac. His bat would be a welcome addition to any contender's lineup, but at this point, his contract is simply too big of a hurdle.
SS Zack Cozart, Cincinnati Reds
Under different circumstances, Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart might be among the most coveted players on the trade market.
The 30-year-old is hitting .267/.319/.468 with 23 doubles, 15 home runs and 41 RBI in what has already been the best offensive season of his career. He's also continued to stand out defensively (11 DRS, 16.7 UZR/150).
Cozart is under team control through next season and carries a reasonable $2.93 million salary this year, yet a market for him has never developed since no contenders are in need of an everyday shortstop.
The Seattle Mariners are the one team that has shown preliminary interest, but it's "not a perfect fit" with Ketel Marte expected to return soon from mononucleosis, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.
RF Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies finally pulled the trigger on a Troy Tulowitzki trade at the deadline last year, but they don't appear to have the same sense of urgency to move fellow star Carlos Gonzalez.
The 30-year-old is enjoying another terrific season, posting a .918 OPS with 23 doubles, 21 home runs and 66 RBI in 420 plate appearances. He's proven healthy the past two seasons, and the $20 million remaining on his contract next season is in line with his market value, if not a small bargain.
Rosenthal noted July 16 that Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich's contract reportedly runs through the end of next season, so keeping CarGo on board gives Bridich the best chance to win in what will be his own contract year.
SP Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels
Since being briefly demoted to the minors after a rocky April (9.15 ERA), Matt Shoemaker has returned a different pitcher for the Los Angeles Angels.
In 15 starts since being recalled, the 29-year-old has gone 4-7 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.122 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 98 innings, turning in nine quality starts along the way.
The late bloomer is under team control through the 2020 season, and the Angels have "not engaged" anyone in potential trade talks despite significant interest, according to Heyman. If a significant offer comes along, prospect-starved Los Angeles would have to listen. But it seems like he'll be staying put.
Others of Note
- CF Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies
- SP Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies
- OF Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta Braves
- RF Nick Markakis, Atlanta Braves
- 3B Trevor Plouffe, Minnesota Twins
- SP Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins
- SP Vincent Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies
2-1 Odds
3 of 6
The smart money is on these guys staying put, but it wouldn't be surprising if they were traded...
SP Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
Chris Archer began the 2016 season as one of the most valuable assets in all of baseball.
The 27-year-old posted a 3.23 ERA and 1.137 WHIP while striking out 252 batters in 212 innings during last season's breakout performance. He's also signed to a six-year, $25.5 million deal, with a pair of team option years totaling $20 million, per Baseball Prospectus, which makes him controllable through the 2021 season.
He's failed to repeat last year with a 4.42 ERA and 1.350 WHIP this season. But he still has elite stuff, as evidenced by his American League-leading 155 strikeouts over 130.1 innings.
The Tampa Bay Rays are discussing their starting pitchers with at least 10 teams, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. If a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers comes calling with a deal they can't turn down, Archer could be moved. But he won't come cheap, even in a down year.
RP Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals
Since moving to the bullpen in 2014, Wade Davis has pitched to a 1.09 ERA, 0.873 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 over 175 appearances, and he's converted 38 of 41 save chances since taking over as the Royals closer last season.
The price of quality late-inning relievers is at an all-time high, so Davis is an incredibly valuable asset. It makes sense for Kansas City to at least do its due diligence and listening to offers for the 30-year-old.
Davis' four-year, $12.6 million deal ended in 2014, but he's played under team options for $7 million and $8 million over the last two seasons and has a reasonable $10 million team option for 2017, per Spotrac. It's not out of the question someone could come along with a huge offer, but that's what it will take for a deal to happen.
SP Wade Miley, Seattle Mariners
Wade Miley's numbers don't look great on the surface, as he sports a 5.23 ERA and 1.419 WHIP over 105 innings, but they were inflated by one awful start in June, when he allowed 12 hits and nine earned runs in 4.2 innings.
"The Mariners have quietly shopped Miley despite sporting a record two games above .500, according to sources," Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote Monday.
Miley's ability to eat innings and team control are most attractive to a contender. He's lasted at least six frames in 12 of his 18 starts and is signed for $8.92 million next year with a $12 million team option in 2018, per Spotrac.
RP Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Given Friday's report from Heyman that the New York Yankees are unwilling to do a one-for-one swap with the Nationals with Andrew Miller for top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito, it's looking more and more like Miller will stay put this summer.
Then again, it's not out of the realm of possibility to think someone could come along with an even better offer for one of the game's dominant lefty relievers.
Since the start of the 2013 season, Miller has posted a 1.98 ERA, 0.900 WHIP and 14.8 K/9. The 31-year-old has two years and $18 million remaining on his contract, making him more than a rental for a club looking to improve now and going forward.
Others of Note
- RP Tyler Clippard, Arizona Diamondbacks
- 1B Adam Lind, Seattle Mariners
- SP Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
- DH Kendrys Morales, Kansas City Royals
- SP Jon Niese, Pittsburgh Pirates
- SP Ivan Nova, New York Yankees
- SP Erasmo Ramirez, Tampa Bay Rays
- RP David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
- RP Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
- SP Edinson Volquez, Kansas City Royals
- RP Chris Withrow, Atlanta Braves
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1-1 Odds
4 of 6
It's a coin flip whether or not these guys will be traded...
RF Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees
This year has been a revival of sorts for the 39-year-old Carlos Beltran after a disappointing first two seasons in pinstripes.
In the final year of his contract, he's posted an .890 OPS with 21 doubles, 21 home runs and 62 RBI—and earned an All-Star nod for the first time since 2013.
The Yankees are still not fully committed to selling, and they could go the qualifying offer route with Beltran at the end of the season, so it's unclear if the future Hall of Famer will be on the move.
The roughly $5.5 million left on his contract this year could be a sticking point for clubs with limited flexibility.
C Jonathan Lucroy, Milwaukee Brewers
Jonathan Lucroy has rebounded wonderfully from an injury-plagued 2015 season, and he is perhaps the most productive all-around catcher in baseball.
The 30-year-old is hitting .300/.360/.484 with 17 doubles, 13 home runs and 50 RBI while throwing out 40 percent of base stealers and ranking as the game's ninth-best pitch framer, according to StatCorner.
That production alongside his ridiculously cheap $4.25 million salary this year and equally attractive $5.25 million team option for next season, per Spotrac, make him arguably the most valuable trade chip on the market this summer.
Lucroy can block a trade to eight teams, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, including two that have shown interest in the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers, per Crasnick and Rosenthal. Lucroy's urge to play for a contender, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, means he likely wouldn't block a deal to those clubs, but he could use that as leverage to nail down an extension.
The Brewers will have no shortage of offers on the table for Lucroy ahead of the deadline. It's simply a matter of whether or not someone is willing to meet their asking price or if he'll instead be shopped this winter.
SP Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are discussing their starting pitchers with at least 10 teams, according to Topkin, and Jake Odorizzi looks like the most likely of the group to be moved.
The 26-year-old is not having a lights-out season, but he's been steady once again, posting a 3.88 ERA, 1.213 WHIP and 115 strikeouts in 125.1 innings.
The fact that he's controllable through the 2019 season is the biggest factor in Tampa Bay's favor. While Archer will take a massive return to acquire and the Rays would be selling low on both Matt Moore and Drew Smyly, now seems like their best chance to get peak value for Odorizzi.
SP James Shields, Chicago White Sox
Less than two months after he was acquired by the White Sox, veteran James Shields is back on the trade block, according to Morosi.
After a disastrous start to his time on the South Side, Shields has settled in nicely with a 1.71 ERA and 1.048 WHIP over his last six starts.
The 34-year-old is owed $42 million over the next two years, but a majority of that will be paid by the Padres, per Baseball Prospectus, making Shields a far more attractive asset than his salary might suggest. Chicago isn't going anywhere this year, so it should at least be willing to listen.
Others of Note
- RP Jeanmar Gomez, Philadelphia Phillies
- OF Jon Jay, San Diego Padres
- RP Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers
- RP Brandon Kintzler, Minnesota Twins
- SP Hector Santiago, Los Angeles Angels
- RP Will Smith, Milwaukee Brewers
1-2 Odds
5 of 6
The smart money is on these guys being traded, but it wouldn't be surprising if they stay put...
RF Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds
Jay Bruce is not only one of the top offensive performers among this year's crop of available players; he's been one of the most productive hitters in all of baseball, period.
The 29-year-old hit .222 with a .695 OPS (91 OPS+) in 2014 and 2015 while dealing with a variety of injuries, but he's bounced back in a big way this season with an .885 OPS (131 OPS+), 22 doubles, 25 home runs and an NL-leading 80 RBI.
There are plenty of teams interested in adding him to the mix, but the Reds still have some leverage thanks to a $13 million team option for next season, per Spotrac. If they don't get the big return they're looking for, they can always hold and shop him again this winter, and that keeps Bruce from falling into the "slam dunk" category.
3B Yunel Escobar, Los Angeles Angels
The Angels don't have much in the way of movable parts as they look to add to the thinnest farm system in baseball.
Yunel Escobar seems like the best bet to be moved among position players, as he's having a solid season with 22 doubles and a .321 average that ranks fourth in the AL.
The 33-year-old has a fairly reasonable $7 million team option for next season, per Spotrac, and he's capable of playing second base, shortstop and third base. Los Angeles has been playing better baseball of late and could simply opt to stand pat at the deadline, but if it does sell, expect Escobar to be among the first players moved.
SP Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics
Oh, what could have been for the Oakland Athletics.
Rich Hill was lining up to be the prize of the trade deadline when he started the season 8-3 with a 2.25 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 64 innings.
However, he's made just three starts since May 29, first dealing with a groin injury and now trying to get past a blister that forced him from the mound after just five pitches July 17. He was scheduled to return to the mound Sunday for one last audition in front of scouts, but he's now been scratched from that start as well, per Jane Lee of MLB.com.
There will still be plenty of interest in Hill, but inquiring teams will no doubt be offering less than they would if he were healthy. With that in mind, the A's could opt to hold on to the veteran and extend him a qualifying offer this winter, when he's expected to land a multiyear deal.
C Derek Norris, San Diego Padres
Passan tweeted Sunday that the Padres were "pushing hard" to trade catcher Derek Norris, and it stands to reason they'll still be doing so in the days leading up to the deadline.
The 27-year-old has struggled at the plate this season with a .196 average and .621 OPS. However, he's continued to show good pop with 14 doubles and 12 home runs, and his 1.2 dWAR ranks second among all catchers, per Baseball-Reference.com.
While Norris is under team control through the 2018 season, San Diego is motivated to move him so it can open a spot for Austin Hedges, who has been raking in Triple-A to the tune of a .352/.395/.684 line, including 11 doubles, 17 home runs and 62 RBI in 210 plate appearances.
Others of Note
- RP Fernando Abad, Minnesota Twins
- OF Peter Bourjos, Philadelphia Phillies
- SP Edwin Jackson, San Diego Padres
1-10 Odds
6 of 6
These guys can pack their bags; they're as good as gone...
SP Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies could still go the qualifying offer route with Jeremy Hellickson.
However, now that Andrew Cashner has been traded to the Miami Marlins, Hellickson has assumed the position of starter most likely to be moved before the deadline.
Stark reported the Phillies are looking for a player who "isn't your best prospect but would fit somewhere in your top five prospects" in return for Hellickson. It's not an unreasonable asking price given the lack of alternatives.
At any rate, the 29-year-old has set himself up for a nice payday this coming offseason thanks to a 3.65 ERA, 1.122 WHIP and 107 strikeouts in 125.2 innings. He's been particularly good of late, pitching to a 2.20 ERA and 0.844 WHIP in his last seven starts.
RP Boone Logan, Colorado Rockies
He may not be the sexiest name on the market, but Boone Logan is an obvious trade chip as a quality left-handed reliever in the final year of his contract with a non-contender.
The 31-year-old failed to live up to his three-year, $16.5 million contract in his first two years with the Rockies, but he's having the best season of his career with a 2.48 ERA, 0.862 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 in 43 appearances.
Logan is capable of being more than just a LOOGY, but he's been nasty against lefties this season. They're hitting a meager .147 with a .418 OPS and 36.1 percent strikeout rate.
UT Steve Pearce, Tampa Bay Rays
Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted earlier this week that "several teams" are targeting Steve Pearce and that it's "very likely" he'll be traded before the deadline.
And why not?
The 33-year-old has been an absolute steal for the Rays on a one-year, $4.75 million deal, hitting .313/.390/.527 with 11 doubles and 10 home runs.
He's capable of playing first base, second base, third base and both corner outfield spots, making him a fit for plenty of contenders looking to add a quality right-handed bat who crushes left-handed pitchers.
RF Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics
Another candidate to receive a qualifying offer if the Athletics don't find a trade to their liking, Josh Reddick nonetheless appears to be the most likely outfielder to be on the move ahead of the deadline.
He missed time earlier this season with a fractured thumb, but he's back healthy now—and his bat has started to heat up. All told, he's hitting .298/.371/.451 with 10 doubles and eight home runs in 264 plate appearances, including .275/.348/.463 with four doubles and three homers in 89 July plate appearances.
The Dodgers, Indians and Chicago Cubs have all shown interest, according to Morosi.
Unlike other outfield targets such as Bruce, Beltran and Kemp, Reddick is a plus defender, so that gives him added appeal.
Others of Note
- RP Daniel Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks
- RP Jim Johnson, Atlanta Braves
- RP Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels
- IF Danny Valencia, Oakland Athletics
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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