Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 16 Buzz, Rumors
Odds are that, at one point or another, you've heard the Latin aphorism "carpe diem," which translates to "seize the day." Seizing the day is a theme that runs through much of this week's edition of fact or fiction.
With only five days left before MLB's non-waiver trade deadline arrives, teams are being forced to decide between holding on to their top prospects in the hopes of future success or parlaying those unproven youngsters into an established veteran or two that can help them win now.
Will a franchise that historically holds onto its top young talent move some in order to make a run at a World Series crown? Should the defending World Series champs trade away a key piece of last year's championship club? Is the Jonathan Lucroy saga in Milwaukee finally going to end?
We'll hit on all that and more after the jump.
Fact: The Nationals Will Trade for Another Closer
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With Jonathan Papelbon set to become a free agent, it was fair to assume on Opening Day that 2016 would be his last season at the back end of Washington's bullpen. But it's become increasingly clear that Papelbon will be setting someone else up for the ninth inning after the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark reports that "the Nationals were in on Aroldis Chapman right to the end," while MLB.com's Jon Morosi tweets that the club has "intensified its efforts to acquire a reliever" after Papelbon blew a save against Cleveland on Tuesday.
While Chapman and Fernando Rodney are off the market, the Nationals have options to pursue.
Colorado's Jake McGee, Los Angeles' Huston Street, Milwaukee's Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith and Philadelphia's Jeanmar Gomez aren't elite options, but aren't likely to cost a massive haul of prospects to obtain, either.
Pittsburgh could decide to shop Mark Melancon, whose value is limited as he's nothing more than a short-term rental (and not on Chapman's level). Chicago's David Robertson, who is having a down year, does have a lengthy track record of success.
The two relievers the Nationals (and every other team in search of relief help) would love to add, Kansas City's Wade Davis and New York's Andrew Miller, are controllable but expensive—both in terms of salary and the prospects they'd cost to acquire.
Stark adds that thus far, the Nationals have been "balking at including Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez or Trea Turner in any deal." They might have to come off that stance if they hope to add Davis or Miller. But they have enough prospect capital to swing a deal for any of the above-named pitchers.
They'll get one of them.
Speaking of Davis...
Fact: Kansas City Should Trade Wade Davis
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Kansas City general manager Dayton Moore is right to put a high asking price on All-Star closer Wade Davis. With Aroldis Chapman off the market and the Yankees seemingly unsure whether they're really willing to trade Miller, Davis could be the best reliever on the market.
So it's not surprising to hear that top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito's name came up as a possible target in a deal with Washington, per Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan. Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that they asked the Chicago Cubs for more than injured slugger Kyle Schwarber in return.
But the Royals would be wise to capitalize on the market and deal Davis now, when his value is at its highest. Washington, as previously noted, is in the market for a late-inning reliever, while Jon Heyman of TodaysKnuckleball.com reports that the Los Angeles Dodgers have interest in the 30-year-old reliever.
Even if the Royals are rebuffed in their attempts to pry Giolito (or the Dodgers' Julio Urias) loose in a package, both teams have deep enough farm systems to give Kansas City a package of high-upside, controllable talent, especially when it comes to starting pitching.
With a weak free agent crop of starters awaiting teams after the season and a farm system left thin by the moves that helped the team win its first World Series in three decades last year, dealing Davis provides the Royals with their best chance of improving a rotation that is mediocre at best.
Per the Kansas City Star's Rustin Dodd, Moore believes that the Royals' championship window will remain open in 2017 and will make moves at the deadline with that in mind. Nothing would push that window open wider than the package of talent they'd bring back to the organization in a Davis trade.
Fiction: Texas Won't Add More Pitching
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Some might believe that after trading second base prospect Travis Demeritte to Atlanta for veteran starter Lucas Harrell and reliever Dario Alvarez, the Texas Rangers are done adding to its injury-depleted pitching staff.
Those folks would be wrong.
Rangers general manager Jon Daniels told reporters on a conference call to announce the trade that he was still having conversations with other clubs about adding more pitching. "We'll see where they go. I can't really handicap it at this point," Daniels said, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "But yes, that's still our focus."
Demeritte, who participated in this year's Futures Game during the All-Star festivities earlier this month, wasn't one of Texas' top prospects. MLB.com named him the team's 21st best prospect heading into the season. Daniels has plenty of trade chips left to play in order to pull off another deal.
Maybe it'll be for Chicago's Chris Sale, as I predicted earlier this week. Perhaps it'll be for a lesser arm, like Tampa Bay's Matt Moore or Jake Odorizzi, or Philadelphia's Jeremy Hellickson. Like Washington when it comes to relievers, Texas has options.
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Fact: Jonathan Lucroy Will Wind Up in Cleveland
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ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick tweets that the Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians, New York Mets, Texas Rangers and a mystery team have all been in on Milwaukee's Jonathan Lucroy. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal may have solved the mystery, throwing the Detroit Tigers into the fray as well.
While Boston and Texas, especially, have the prospects to satisfy Milwaukee's asking price, there's only one Lucroy—and only one place he's going to wind up: Cleveland.
I predicted earlier this week that the Indians would swing a deal with the Brewers for Lucroy and left-handed reliever Will Smith and, lo and behold, those are the two players that Crasnick says Cleveland has been talking to Milwaukee about.
The Indians have both the pitching prospects (Brady Aiken, Rob Kaminsky and Justus Sheffield) and positional prospects (Bobby Bradley, Clint Frazier and Bradley Zimmer) to make the Brewers an offer they can't refuse.
With the American League looking wide-open, Cleveland not only has a chance to clinch its first division title since 2007, but they can also reach the World Series for the first time since 1997, when its lineup featured the likes of Brian Giles, David Justice, Manny Ramirez and Matt Williams.
Adding Lucroy would make the Indians the favorites to represent the American League in the Fall Classic. They won't pass that chance up.
Fact: Cincinnati Will Get a Top Prospect in Exchange for Jay Bruce
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At least four teams, including the Seattle Mariners, have reached out to the Cincinnati Reds about slugging right fielder Jay Bruce, according to Crasnick, adding that the Reds are looking for a top prospect in return.
Last year, you'd have been laughed out of whatever room you had entered if you suggested that Bruce was worthy of a top prospect. The outfielder was coming off a two-year stretch that saw him hit just .222 with a .695 OPS. While his power was intact (44 home runs), he looked like an all-or-nothing player.
But now, two years removed from knee surgery, Bruce looks like the player he used to be, hitting .271 with 25 home runs, a National League-leading 79 RBI and a career-best .895 OPS. Numbers like that make the idea of a team surrendering a top prospect to acquire him far less outrageous than it used to be.
Besides, it's not like the trade market is flush with big bats. After the aforementioned Lucroy, who is a different type of hitter entirely, the biggest name making the rounds on the rumor mill is Tampa Bay's Steve Pearce, a versatile veteran who has cracked the 20-home run mark once in his 10-year career.
While it's unclear what kind of prospect the Reds are seeking (my bet would be an outfielder), there are enough teams in search of an impact bat to ensure that the Reds will wind up getting what they're looking for.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.comand FanGraphs and are current through games of July 27. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk trade deadline and all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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