Roger Federer's Professional Future Is in Flux with Knee Injury Rehab Ahead
Tennis is about to receive its first extended preview of a post-Roger Federer reality.
Days after withdrawing from the Rogers Cup, Federer unexpectedly announced on his Facebook page that he’ll sit out the rest of the season to nurse his ailing left knee.
"Roger Federer announces he will miss remainder of the season in order receive "extensive rehabilitation" on his knee pic.twitter.com/Er1LfhssKE
— ESPNTennis (@ESPNTennis) July 26, 2016"
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The sabbatical of the sport’s most popular player and a worldwide icon is a jarring development for fans that creates a palpable hole in terms of star power for the immediate future. His absence necessitates an adjustment period as the game must now roll on without the revered champion.
Father Time is the undefeated opponent Federer, 34, managed to outrun so imperviously until this point. But his body finally gave in and showed major cracks this year, rendering him fragile and unable to stay healthy.
Aside from the occasional back problem, he'd previously avoided any serious injuries in his career. Like baseball legend Cal Ripken Jr., Federer earned a reputation for being an iron man because he simply couldn't be knocked out of action.
This season started smoothly for Federer, as he reached the Australian Open semifinals in January. Though he fell to Novak Djokovic in four sets, his play during the tournament didn't hint at any impending trouble. He was right there in the mix as always, his eye firmly toward winning Wimbledon and gold at the Olympics.
Just a day later, those dreams were put on hold when he tore his left meniscus while preparing a bath for his children. That one fluke accident triggered a snowball effect.
He underwent surgery, a move that forced him to skip Dubai and Indian Wells as he attacked the rehab process. His recovery seemed to be moving in the right direction based on his social media updates.
"Trying to be 🕸🕷man. 🔙 at it! pic.twitter.com/0CvCzDZobY
— Roger Federer (@rogerfederer) February 23, 2016"
A return in Miami was planned but scrapped at the last moment when Federer came down with a stomach virus. Eventually, he made his way to Monte Carlo to resume his campaign. But the return proved short-lived, as he hurt his back practicing in Madrid.
Forced to pull out there, he gave it a go in Rome but wasn't 100 percent in time for the French Open. By making the call to skip Roland Garros, his streak of 65 consecutive Grand Slam appearances was abruptly snapped.
Turning his focus to the grass, Federer recovered enough to play Wimbledon tuneups in Stuttgart and Halle, Germany. Though he lost in the semifinals at both events, Federer's fitness didn't appear to be an issue.
After coasting through the early rounds at Wimbledon, Federer pushed himself to the limit in the quarterfinals with a stirring two-sets-to-love comeback against Marin Cilic.
He paid a price for that win, his last for at least the next several months.
On the precipice of another final at the All England Club, Federer was deadlocked with an inspired Milos Raonic. Calling for the trainer to look at his leg before the deciding set, he then took an awkward tumble when his knee gave out. Face down on the grass for a few exasperating moments, he picked himself up and finished the match, which he couldn't snatch away from Raonic.
"I hope I didn't hurt myself," Federer told the Associated Press (h/t ESPN) after his loss. "I don't know at this point. I hope it's not so bad. I walked it off. I was able to finish. But I don't slip a lot. I don't ever fall down. It was a different fall for me than I've ever had."
Those fears sadly proved true.
His Facebook post made it explicitly clear that this isn’t the end. But Federer’s future in 2017 and beyond is murkier than ever as he faces this great physical hurdle.
Overcoming injury is one thing. Returning to the level he’s accustomed to will be the bigger challenge.
"There is no gloom and doom in our camp," Federer's agent Tony Godsick told ESPN.com's Greg Garber. "The decision was unfortunate, on the face, a bummer, but it was encouraging, too. It shows he still wants to get out there and give it a few more years."
Optimism is important, but it doesn't guarantee that Federer will be able to play how he wants to right away (if ever again). Just ask Andy Murray. When he underwent back surgery in the fall of 2013, it took him the better part of a year to regain his form. And he was only 26 at the time, not in his mid-30s like Federer is now.
As athletes get older, it becomes tougher to recover from such trauma. Knee injuries are sensitive enough as it is, and they become more delicate with age. There's a real danger in overcompensating to avoid hurting that part of the body again, which in turn can put further stress on other areas.
Let's give Federer the benefit of the doubt and say he's fit as a fiddle come January. Well, the potential for another injury will likely weigh heavily in the back of his mind. All it takes is one false move to be transported back to square one. So his current situation isn't just physical; it's a mental test as well.
Months of rest and rehab will hopefully be the remedy for his troubles. Building confidence in that knee to stand up to the day-in-and-day-out grind once he returns to competition won't come as easily.
Federer's agility has always been a hallmark of his game. Maybe he's lost a step or two from his absolute peak, but even recently he looked as graceful as ever. What happens to his psyche if he can't glide around the court anymore?
One phrase stands out from the rest of Federer's Facebook post. He emphasized his goal to play "attacking tennis" again. More than ever, his best chance of winning is keeping points short and reducing the strain on his body.
Even the best-laid plans often go awry. After all, wasn't the whole purpose of hiring Stefan Edberg a few years ago to come to net more and play a less physical style? Some things are just out of our control, health chiefly among them.
With all that said, Federer had the clarity to understand that trying to play through the pain would only put himself at further risk. Sure, not being able to go for gold in Rio de Janeiro (which he's long talked about) is a downer. But the silver lining is that his desire to keep going for a couple more years means that he could take a long-term view rather than making a rash decision.
In retrospect, maybe Federer came back too soon after that initial knee surgery. At least now he can be patient with five months of time at his disposal. All the behind-the-scenes work awaiting him will be arduous, yet a full-fledged rehab is the only way he'll extend his playing days.
When he does return, Federer is projected to be outside the top 15. Though he can use a protected ranking if necessary to gain direct entry into tournaments, that won't help his seeding. Federer could face other top-flight players much earlier in draws than he normally would, which is obviously not an ideal scenario. So right from the start, Federer is going to have his hands full as he tries to shake off the rust.
Federer has a knack for proving people wrong. Written off by some critics the moment he turned 30, he's been able to remain relevant well beyond his presumed shelf life. Those natural gifts he possesses allowed him to stay in contention for Grand Slams even as his competitors have become younger, stronger and faster.
Every ounce of those skills will be needed if Federer is to move past this dark chapter and write a proper epilogue to his career.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com, unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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