Predicting Which College Basketball Teams Will Have Breakout Years in 2016-17

Take a look at a random Top 25 poll in the middle of any college basketball season and you're apt to see a lot of the same names as you would at the beginning or end of that year. Or any other season, for that matter. A number of traditional powers are rarely out of the NCAA tournament picture.

For the rest of the 351 teams in Division I, there's always next season. And thanks to the cyclical nature of college basketball, a breakout year can follow a down one.

Which teams will rise up and make waves in 2016-17 after being down last season? To be considered, a team had to finish with a .500 record or worse in conference play and not make the 2016 NCAA tourney. Seventeen such schools that met these criteria in 2014-15 ended up making this past tournament field—11 from the major conferences, including surprise Final Four team Syracuse.

We came up with 10 strong candidates—listed alphabetically—that are in store for a big upcoming campaign, breaking down what needs to happen for each program to break out.

Creighton Blue Jays

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2015-16 record: 20-15, 9-9 Big East

Key returnees: F Zach Hanson, F Toby Hegner, F Cole Huff, G Khyri Thomas, G Maurice Watson Jr., G Isaiah Zierden

Impact additions: G Marcus Foster (transfer), G Kobe Paras (incoming freshman), C Justin Patton (redshirt freshman)

Creighton made three straight NCAA tournament appearances and won 84 games between 2013 and 2015 thanks to the prolific scoring of Doug McDermott, making a successful move from the Missouri Valley to the Big East in the process. The Blue Jays slipped to 14-19 in 2014-15 in their first season after McDermott graduated, winning only four games in the conference that year.

The 2015-16 team began the bounce-back process thanks to a pair of transfers. Watson, from Boston University, led Creighton in scoring (14.1) and assists (6.5), while former Nevada product Huff was second in scoring (11.3) and rebounds (5.1). Now another player who began his career at another Division I program becomes eligible and could be that go-to scorer the Blue Jays were lacking last season.

Foster averaged 14.1 points per game in two seasons at Kansas State, including 15.5 as a freshman in 2013-14, but discipline issues led to his departure. Creighton provides a fresh start, and the time off has allowed him to work on flaws in his game.

"If you know my game, it’s all about my shot, and it’s even better than it was my freshman year," Foster told Dirk Chatelain of the Omaha World-Herald. "I’ve never been able to dribble all my life. I can create my shot off the dribble now. That’s something I’ve never done."

Patton, a 6'11” local product who sat out his first year at Creighton, should step in for departed center Geoffrey Groselle, while late arrival Paras (who previously signed with UCLA) adds depth to the backcourt.

Eastern Michigan Eagles

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2015-16 record: 18-15, 9-9 Mid-American

Key returnees: G Tim Bond, G Raven Lee, G Willie Mangum, C James Thompson, G Ty Toney

Impact additions: F Nick Madray (transfer)

Eastern Michigan is far from a household name in college basketball, and even in the underrated Mid-American Conference the Eagles don't regularly get mentioned among the league's best. Having no NCAA tournament appearances since 1998 in a conference that has sent six different teams to the Big Dance the past decade will affect a program's profile.

But EMU has been slowly on the rise under sixth-year coach Rob Murphy, who has averaged 20.3 wins the last three seasons after the Eagles averaged only 11.3 over the previous 15. And with four starters back, the opportunity to take the next step is there.

Only forward Brandon Nazione is gone among the top six scorers, but Binghamton transfer Madray can fill that role as the frontcourt mate to rising sophomore Thompson. He was the MAC Freshman of the Year who averaged 14.8 points, 10.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocks while shooting 64.8 percent and making a then-NCAA record 26 consecutive field goals at one point.

A pair of early-round games against power-conference teams (Pittsburgh and SMU) will give Eastern Michigan valuable experience for the MAC schedule.

Florida Gators

Associated Press

2015-16 record: 21-15, 9-9 SEC

Key returnees: G KeVaughn Allen, G Chris Chiozza, C John Egbunu, F Kevarrius Hayes, G Kasey Hill, F Justin Leon, F Devin Robinson

Impact additions: G Canyon Barry (transfer), G Eric Hester (incoming freshman)

Florida has a pair of national championship trophies in its case and was the last team to win back-to-back titles in 2006 and 2007. In 2013-14 the Gators won 36 games and reached the Final Four, capping a four-year run under Billy Donovan in which they made it to at least the Elite Eight.

Donovan is now in the NBA, coaching the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Florida heads into 2016-17 having missed consecutive NCAA tournaments. That includes the first season under Michael White, who replaced Donovan in June 2015.

White had huge shoes to fill, and while he didn't get the Gators back into the Big Dance, he did improve off the 16-17 record Donovan had in his final season. That was with a roster that remained in flux throughout the summer and resulted in 11 different starting lineups (none was used for more than nine games), though Florida made it to the NIT quarterfinals.

Things should stabilize in White's second go-around. Though leading scorer Dorian Finney-Smith graduated, the next six top contributors are back. They're joined by one of the top graduate transfers from this last cycle in Barry, who averaged 19.7 points per game for Charleston last year before injuring his shoulder in January.

Harvard Crimson

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2015-16 record: 14-16, 6-8 Ivy League

Key returnees: G Siyani Chambers, C Zena Edosomwan, G Corey Johnson, G Tommy McCarthy, G Corbin Miller

Impact additions: G Bryce Aiken (incoming freshman), F Robert Baker (incoming freshman), F Chris Lewis (incoming freshman), F Seth Towns (incoming freshman)

After four straight NCAA tournament appearances (and a couple of first-round upsets along the way), Harvard's rise came to a screeching halt in 2015-16. Major losses to graduation and an injury to top returner Siyani Chambers resulted in a rebuilding year. The six Ivy League wins were the Crimson's fewest since Tommy Amaker's second season in 2008-09, after which he averaged 11.5 league victories the next six seasons.

Chambers had to withdraw from school in order to retain his eligibility, since the Ivy League doesn't allow redshirts, so in effect he's both a returner—along with four of Harvard's top six scorers—and an addendum to the best recruiting class in school history. At No. 24 overall, per 247Sports, Harvard's seven-man class features two 4-star and four 3-star prospects.

To put that in perspective: According to 247Sports, only two other 3-star prospects signed with the rest of the Ivy League.

Aiken, Baker, Lewis and Towns could all be starters alongside Chambers, who averaged 9.9 points and 4.3 assists as a junior, though Harvard's depth will be what sends it back up the Ivy League standings after a one-year absence from the Big Dance.

Illinois Fighting Illini

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2015-16 record: 13-19, 5-13 Big Ten

Key returnees: G Tracy Abrams, F Leron Black, G Jalen Coleman-Lands, G Malcolm Hill, G Maverick Morgan, F Mike Thorne

Impact additions: G Te'jon Lucas (incoming freshman)

John Groce was an inspired hire when Illinois plucked him away from Ohio in 2011-12, fresh off a 29-win season and Sweet 16 run fueled by an upset of Michigan. And Groce won 23 games with the Fighting Illini that first season, which was a bump from the 17 in Bruce Weber's final year, but since then it's been a steady decline in Champaign.

Last year's overall record and Big Ten record were Illinois' worst since 1998-99, and that was only thanks to getting blessed with four games against Big Ten doormats Minnesota and Rutgers.

Major injury issues didn't help the Illini's cause last year. Abrams missed a second consecutive season, while Thorne was limited to eight games and Black to seven. All three are on track to be healthy for this fall, with Abrams and Thorne part of a senior-heavy lineup that would have been even more experienced had second-leading scorer Kendrick Nunn not been dismissed.

Illinois doesn't have to take a major leap to be considered a breakout team from the Big Ten, where 6.7 teams have made the NCAA tournament on average since 2010-11. The Illini haven't finished better than seventh, though, since being part of a four-way tie for fourth in 2010-11.

North Carolina State Wolfpack

Associated Press

2015-16 record: 16-17, 5-13 ACC

Key returnees: F Abdul-Malik Abu, F BeeJay Anya, G Terry Henderson, G Maverick Rowan

Impact additions: G Torin Dorn (transfer), G Markell Johnson (incoming freshman), F Ted Kapita (incoming freshman), G Dennis Smith (incoming freshman), C Omer Yurtseven (incoming freshman)

North Carolina State went from making the Sweet 16 to logging only 16 wins, the fewest for a Mark Gottfried-coached team since 1999-2000. Despite having one of the top scorers in the country in Cat Barber, the program was a mess last year and won only six of its final 20 games after a 10-3 start.

Barber turned pro and twins Caleb and Cody Martin transferred to Nevada, but the Wolfpack bring in one of their best recruiting classes ever to go with a pair of transfers who should make up much of the scoring punch that departed. The fourth-best class in 2016 has four players rated among the top 60, including the third-best point guard (Smith) and third-best center (Yurtseven).

Smith will be the guiding force for a backcourt that figures to have former West Virginia guard Henderson and ex-Charlotte guard Dorn alongside him. Henderson was expected to be a big part of the 2015-16 team but was injured seven minutes into his first game with the Wolfpack, and he and Dorn bring career three-point shooting rates of 38.7 percent and 34.2 percent, respectively.

Where N.C. State could have a major advantage over many teams this coming season is with its frontcourt size. Abu and Anya averaged 14.1 rebounds and 2.9 blocks in 51.7 minutes per game last season, and Yurtseven is a Turkish product who had 91 points and 28 rebounds in an international competition in May.

Rhode Island Rams

Associated Press

2015-16 record: 17-15, 9-9 Atlantic 10

Key returnees: G Jarvis Garrett, G Kuran Iverson, F Hassan Martin, G E.C. Matthews, G Jared Terrell

Impact additions: G Stanford Robinson (transfer)

Rhode Island is Dan Hurley's second rebuilding project; he took over the Rams in 2012-13 after quickly turning around Wagner. Before he moves on to a bigger program, though, he wants to finish the job and get the Rams into the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1999.

That was supposed to happen last year, when a stacked lineup was in place to not only get a bid but possibly be the Atlantic 10 champions. That was before Matthews tore his ACL 10 minutes into the opening game, taking away Rhode Island's most explosive scorer.

Martin also missed time because of injury, which made it a minor miracle the Rams still finished above .500 overall and in the upper half of a top-heavy A-10. Only three-point specialist Four McGlynn has moved on among the top pieces from 2015-16. Matthews is back, and the team gets Indiana transfer Robinson.

Hurley recently picked up a contract extension through 2021, which includes a raise to $1 million per season starting in 2017-18, though if Rhode Island breaks through this coming season, it may be hard to keep hold of him for long.

TCU Horned Frogs

Associated Press

2015-16 record: 12-21, 2-16 Big 12

Key returnees: F Vladimir Brodziansky, F JD Miller, G Brandon Parrish, G Karviar Shepherd, G Malique Trent, F Chris Washburn

Impact additions: G Jaylen Fisher (incoming freshman), G Alex Robinson (transfer)

Jamie Dixon was taken for granted at Pittsburgh, where he made 11 NCAA tournament appearances in 13 seasons and won at least 19 games every year. He hadn't got the Panthers out of the first weekend of the NCAA tourney since 2008-09, so it was best for all parties that he decided to leave for another opportunity.

There will be no such underappreciation for Dixon if he can get TCU into the tournament, where it last appeared in 1998 when the Horned Frogs were in the Western Athletic Conference. Since then they have more losing seasons (11) than winning ones (seven), and since moving to the Big 12 in 2012-13, they have won a mere eight conference games in four seasons.

Trent Johnson couldn't build any momentum during his tenure, though he did leave behind a promising group of players who could make a big leap in 2016-17 with Dixon's guidance. It would have been a better overall lot if leading scorer Chauncey Collins had not left to pursue a pro career in June, but the pending arrival of Jaylen Fisher put Collins' playing time in jeopardy anyway.

Fisher, a 4-star prospect who was previously a UNLV commit, is a welcome addition to a team that had no player average more than 2.7 assists per game in 2015-16.

UCLA Bruins

Associated Press

2015-16 record: 15-17, 6-12 Pac-12

Key returnees: G Bryce Alford, G Prince Ali, G Isaac Hamilton, G Aaron Holiday, C Thomas Welsh

Impact additions: C Ike Anigbogu (incoming freshman), G Lonzo Ball (incoming freshman), F T.J. Leaf (incoming freshman)

UCLA's down seasons tend to get far more attention than the successful ones of late. So it goes for the program with 11 national championships, most in NCAA history, and 17 Final Four appearances that happens to play in one of the largest media markets in the country.

Steve Alford had built up some goodwill in his first two seasons by getting the Bruins into the Sweet 16 each time, though critics will say that was mostly due to the players he inherited from previous coach Ben Howland. Last year's squad was the first in which the majority of the roster was his, and it resulted in UCLA's worst Pac-12 record since 2002-03.

Now the Bruins might have one of their most talented groups in the past decade, with 5-star prospects Ball and Leaf each expected to slide right into the lineup and be key contributors. That will push at least one starter to the bench from the backcourt, likely Holiday, who after averaging 10.3 points and 4.0 assists as a freshman will be in contention for top sixth-man honors.

The supporting cast has thinned a bit in the past two weeks, though, with sophomore Ali out until at least November after undergoing knee surgery and junior forward Jonah Bolden leaving the program to seek a pro career on Tuesday. Still, UCLA has more than enough talent left to get back to the NCAA tourney; it's just a matter of everyone being able to play well together.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Associated Press

2015-16 record: 18-16, 8-10 Conference USA

Key returnees: F Justin Johnson, F Ben Lawson, F Anton Waters

Impact additions: F Willie Carmichael (transfer), G Que Johnson (transfer), G Junior Lomomba (transfer), F Jabari McGhee (midseason transfer)

In all fairness, Western Kentucky's best chance to make a big splash probably won't come until 2017-18. That's when new coach Rick Stansbury's work on the recruiting trail will bear fruit with the arrival of 5-star center commit Mitchell Robinson. But Stansbury's first team could make some noise in the wide-open Conference USA thanks to an influx of former power-conference players.

Johnson and Lomomba are graduate transfers from Washington State and Providence, respectively. Johnson averaged 11.3 points and shot 40.4 percent from three-point range last season, while Lomomba started every game for Providence a year ago. Carmichael and McGhee previously played at Tennessee; Carmichael sat out 2015-16, and McGhee joined the program at midseason and thus isn't eligible for the Hilltoppers until December.

The returnee portion of Western Kentucky's roster is on the thin side; leading scorer Johnson is the only player who averaged more than five points per game last season.

Stansbury, who spent the last two seasons as an assistant coach at Texas A&M, won 293 games in 14 seasons at Mississippi State from 1998 to 2012 with six NCAA tournament appearances.

All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information from 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.