College Football's Top 10 QBs and Their NFL Counterparts
Quarterback is the most important position in football, regardless of level. College football and the NFL collide each year when it comes to evaluating stars at the position because every team is looking for that next franchise playmaker.
This fall, the college game will offer up quite a few impressive quarterback prospects for the next level, from Heisman contenders Deshaun Watson and Baker Mayfield to the physically gifted Patrick Mahomes and Brad Kaaya.
They each have their own strengths and styles as quarterbacks, and that plays right into one of draft season's favorite games—college-to-NFL comparisons. Who do these college quarterbacks remind analysts of at the professional level?
Earlier this month, I compared the top 10 college running backs to NFL starters both past and present. This time, using the help of NFL draft experts and other media members, I'm going to do it again with my personal choices for the top 10 quarterbacks, based on past statistical production in college and potential for the 2016 season.
Keep in mind that these player comparisons don't mean that the college player will become just like the NFL player in the pros. These are comparisons based on similarities in size, athleticism, skill set, style and background—not necessarily expected production at the next level.
10. Mason Rudolph (Oklahoma State)
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NFL Counterpart: Ryan Tannehill
Mason Rudolph is a big body at quarterback for Oklahoma State, and he hasn't been a constant, every-down option at the position for the Cowboys so far in his college career. He still has room to develop as a complete passer with more snaps at the college level.
That reminds some NFL draft analysts, including Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting, of another big quarterback from that part of the country—Miami Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill. At Texas A&M, Tannehill rotated at quarterback early on and even played some wide receiver. But in his final season before the draft, his stock exploded as he rose to a top-10 pick.
"Reminding of Tannehill in terms of body type, movement ability and composure, release point and velocity and issues in downfield throw placement, Rudolph has the potential to see the same sudden rise during the draft process should he enter the 2017 NFL draft," Galko wrote.
Rudolph is slightly larger at 6'5" and 235 pounds, compared to Tannehill at 6'4", 220. But they are both above-average athletes for pocket passers who, as Galko notes, were slowly developed during their college careers. With a huge season in 2016, Rudolph could follow in Tannehill's footsteps and be a coveted draft prospect.
9. Brad Kaaya (Miami)
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NFL Counterpart: Matt Ryan
Over the last two years, Brad Kaaya has been a strong starting quarterback for a Miami team that is now eager to break out and compete for an ACC championship. That's a similar situation to Matt Ryan's at Boston College, and Ryan was able to lead the Eagles to a conference title game before heading to the NFL.
In terms of size and style, Kaaya and Ryan have a lot in common. Ryan is just two pounds heavier than Kaaya (217 vs. 215), and they are the exact same height (6'4"). They both have strong arms and look like the prototype of an NFL pocket passer.
NUC Football scout Justen Gammel noted on Twitter, "Brad Kaaya could be that mix of Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Prototype pocket passer. Improve arm and deep accuracy and he's very good."
"I don't think you can stop him," an unnamed ACC assistant coach told Jared Shanker of ESPN.com. "Kaaya is going to play for a long time. He's the model NFL quarterback."
8. Josh Rosen (UCLA)
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NFL Counterpart: Eli Manning
Josh Rosen is no stranger to tremendous hype. He was a 5-star quarterback out of high school and won the starting job at UCLA as a true freshman. His head coach, Jim Mora, has already compared him to the recently retired Peyton Manning, one of the best of all time.
With all due respect to Mora, Rosen looks more like Manning's younger brother Eli, who is another fantastic quarterback with Super Bowl rings. Both Rosen and Eli Manning are 6'4", and they both excel at dissecting defenses with their reads before and after the ball is snapped. Before he enrolled at UCLA, Bleacher Report's Tyler Donohue compared Rosen to the Giants star.
"Rosen, who led his team to an unbeaten state title run as a junior, is the most accurate deep-ball passer in this class, and that's a dimension of Manning's game that has always shined," Donohue wrote last year. "His surgical footwork on dropbacks also reminds me of Manning."
Like Eli Manning, Rosen has a great chance at becoming a No. 1 overall draft pick and being a franchise quarterback for years to come. Right now, he'll focus on going after the awards and accolades Manning picked up in college at Ole Miss, like the Maxwell and the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm awards.
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7. Patrick Mahomes (Texas Tech)
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NFL Counterpart: Aaron Rodgers
Patrick Mahomes has the potential to shoot up NFL draft boards in the coming months as he leads Kliff Kingsbury's offense at Texas Tech. When he sees Mahomes' ridiculous arm strength, confidence in the pocket and tendency to pull off something completely unexpected, Kingsbury sees a lot of Green Bay Packers star Aaron Rodgers.
"I just saw those plays, watching Aaron Rodgers play, he'll do that no-look stuff and Pat's kind of working that into his game in some areas," Kingsbury said, per Mike DuPont of the Dallas Morning News. "He's a big Aaron Rodgers fan, I'm a big Aaron Rodgers fan, so, just wanted to put it out there."
Kingsbury posted video of the comparison on Twitter during spring practice in April, saying: ".@PatrickMahomes5 doing his best @AaronRodgers12 impersonation with a couple "no-look" passes this spring. #WreckEm"
According to DuPont, Mahomes grew up a Packers fan and tries to model some of his game after Rodgers, who took over for the legendary Brett Favre after a successful college career with the Cal Golden Bears. They both have incredible arm talent and a gunslinger mentality, and they're not too far off in size.
6. Greg Ward Jr. (Houston)
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NFL Counterpart: Denard Robinson or Antwaan Randle El
There's no denying Greg Ward Jr. is a fantastic college quarterback. Last season, he rushed for 1,108 yards and 21 touchdowns—second only to Navy's Keenan Reynolds for FBS quarterbacks—and added 2,828 yards, 17 touchdowns and a 67.2 percent completion rate through the air.
However, while Ward is the perfect fit for Tom Herman's spread attack at Houston, he's not what NFL teams are looking for at quarterback because of his size. At just 5'11" and 185 pounds, Ward makes even the most undersized quarterbacks in the league look big.
Even though he most likely won't play quarterback at the next level, he could still use his athletic gifts to have great success on an NFL roster. Earlier this summer, Bleacher Report's Brian Pedersen compared him to former Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson, another 5'11" passer who is now playing running back for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
For an older comparison, Sam Monson of Pro Football Focus used former Pittsburgh Steelers great Antwaan Randle El, who was an undersized speedster at quarterback at Indiana but later became a dangerous slot receiver and return man. Ward has experience at wide receiver at Houston, and a franchise might look to use his speed in that utility role.
5. Seth Russell (Baylor)
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NFL Counterpart: Geno Smith
When he heads to the NFL, Baylor quarterback Seth Russell will have to prove to scouts that he's a strong quarterback outside of the system that consistently churns out the nation's No. 1 offense. It's a similar dilemma to what Geno Smith faced when he headed to the league from West Virginia, where he racked up plenty of yards and recognition.
While Russell does more running the ball than Smith did at West Virginia, they both possess strong arms in the pocket. They are nearly identical in size—Russell is listed by Baylor at 6'3" and 220 pounds, and Smith is listed by NFL.com as 6'3" and 221 pounds.
Like Smith, Russell has the arm talent and the athleticism to be a coveted quarterback in the early rounds of the NFL draft. Smith was an early second-round pick by the New York Jets in the 2013 NFL draft and became the starting quarterback as a rookie after an injury to Mark Sanchez.
Smith couldn't carry over his statistical excellence from West Virginia to the Jets, where he has thrown 27 touchdowns to 35 interceptions. Russell will have to prove that he's much more than a "system quarterback" in order for a team to trust him with the starting job. But, like Smith, there's a lot to like about Russell's skill set.
4. Chad Kelly (Ole Miss)
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NFL Counterpart: Jay Cutler
Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly didn't have the same path to becoming a star in the SEC as current Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler, but there is still a lot in common between the two passers. Both are similar in size—Kelly is listed at 6'2", while Cutler is 6'3"—and they both love to be aggressive and go after the huge gain downfield.
As Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com notes, sometimes that turns into an explosive play or a touchdown. Other times, that aggressiveness gets the quarterbacks in trouble in the form of interceptions. In addition to their aggressive natures as quarterbacks, Kelly and Cutler share other intangibles.
"Kelly has ideal size, arm strength and toughness. ... I love his competitiveness and grit, but there's a lot of growth that needs to take place in his decision making," Jeremiah wrote. "He has a lot of similarities to Jay Cutler: big arm, aggressive nature, above-average athlete."
Fortunately for Kelly and Ole Miss, he has another year to tighten up his abilities, become more poised under pressure and take better care of the football. If he can do that, he could be on his way to a long NFL career, like the former Vanderbilt Commodore, Cutler.
3. J.T. Barrett (Ohio State)
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NFL Counterpart: Tyrod Taylor
J.T. Barrett's NFL stock is somewhat murky at the moment. He's a highly productive dual-threat quarterback from an offense that doesn't directly translate to the NFL. Famed quarterback guru George Whitfield told Doug Lesmerises of Cleveland.com that Barrett reminds him a lot of a bigger Russell Wilson.
A better comparison to Barrett's NFL future might be former Virginia Tech quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who is coming off a fantastic season with the Buffalo Bills. Barrett is slightly bigger than Taylor, but neither is the prototypical tall, pocket-passing quarterback who dominates NFL draft boards. They use their speed and accuracy on the run to hurt defenses.
"Both Barrett and Taylor are true dual-threat guys," former Ohio State quarterback Stanley Jackson told Sean Merriman of BTN.com. "Like Taylor, Barrett can throw really well, maybe even better, and both can run the ball. When you watch each of them play, you will see that they get rid of it quickly and distribute the ball really well."
It took a while before Taylor, who was also an early star in his college career, got the chance to become "the guy" for an NFL franchise. Barrett might have to go the same route, but there's no denying his production and pro potential as a dual-threat passer.
2. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
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NFL Counterpart: Drew Brees
Baker Mayfield was an undersized quarterback from the Austin, Texas, area who wasn't heavily recruited out of high school by the Big 12's giants. He later burst onto the national scene with his accurate arm and ability to lead his team with a competitive edge. He finished fourth in Heisman voting in his junior season.
That list also fits New Orleans Saints great Drew Brees—the smaller size, the hometown area, the lack of recruitment, the skill set and even the fourth-place finish in Heisman voting. (Brees would later win the Maxwell Award and finish third in Heisman voting in 2000, his senior season, for Purdue.)
Mayfield is slightly larger than Brees and is better at evading pressure to rack up rushing yards, but there are still a lot of similarities between the two Texas natives. Adam Gorney and Mike Farrell of Rivals wrote last year that Mayfield would "give up his body to make a play and he has the leadership qualities of Brees." They can both roll out of the pocket and create big plays with their arms.
The Oklahoma quarterback has a long way to go before he can compare to the success of the six-time NFL passing champion. But franchises interested in a quarterback will undoubtedly be happy to see the style comparisons between Mayfield and one of the NFL's all-time greats.
1. Deshaun Watson (Clemson)
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NFL Counterpart: Marcus Mariota
As the first 4,000-yard passer and 1,000-yard rusher in major college football history, Clemson's Deshaun Watson must have an NFL counterpart who is equally gifted at picking apart defenses with his arm and his legs—like 2015 No. 2 overall pick Marcus Mariota.
It's not a perfect comparison, as Mariota is taller and has some more weight on him than Watson, but NFL.com analysts Bucky Brooks and Daniel Jeremiah have both compared Watson to Mariota, the 2014 Heisman Trophy winner at Oregon.
Brooks said both have "rare athleticism and movement skills" yet can still hurt opponents in the pocket. Jeremiah's comparison was softer because of their differences in size and arm strength, but he still sees a lot of the former Duck in the current Tiger.
"The production is off the charts," Jeremiah wrote. "Watson can dominate a game with his run-pass skill combination. As a passer, he has a quick delivery and slightly above-average arm strength. ... As a runner, he has outstanding vision and quickness. He's used quite often in the zone-read game and he makes excellent decisions."
Both Watson and Mariota have led their respective schools to national championship games with their excellence in an uptempo, run-pass option offense. Like Mariota, Watson could soar up to the first couple of spots in the 2017 NFL draft with another fantastic season.
Stats are courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings are courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a National College Football Analyst at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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