Realistic Expectations for Denver Nuggets Rookie Jamal Murray in 2016-17

C.J. MooreJul 19, 2016

The Denver Nuggets were fortunate to have Jamal Murray fall to them at No. 7 in the 2016 NBA draft. He was exactly what they were looking for: a three-point shooter who can play both guard positions.

The Nuggets thought so highly of Murray that they had him slotted at No. 3 on their 2016 NBA draft board, according to Christopher Dempsey of the Denver Post.

That's not a surprise considering his success at Kentucky—Murray was the first player under John Calipari at UK to average better than 20 points per game. Considering the pros Cal has run through Lexington, that's quite the achievement.

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Murray was one of the best natural scorers available in this draft, and Denver saw him as an ideal fit because it believes he can coexist with second-year point guard Emmanuel Mudiay or thrive in a more ball-dominant role when Mudiay goes to the bench.

"Those people who have only seen him at Kentucky see him as an off-the-ball player, but before he got to Kentucky, he was a true point guard," Denver head coach Mike Malone said on the ESPN telecast during Denver's summer-league opener. "We'll have him on the ball. We'll have him off the ball, and we'll allow him to play a lot his rookie season."

Murray showed through five summer-league games that he can score, averaging 19.6 points, but his inefficiency was concerning. He shot 42.5 percent overall and just 27.6 percent from beyond the three-point line.

Team Fit

Murray is expected to compete for the starting shooting guard spot with Gary Harris, but it's more likely he'll come off the bench.

That could be a better role for him anyway, if you want to read into the small sample size of summer league. The Nuggets had their young backcourt of Mudiay and Harris play one game in Las Vegas, and Murray started alongside them.

The rookie got lost in that game when on the floor with both young guards. The shots he did take were forced, and he had more success the rest of the week as the primary ball-handler.

Playing off the ball, as Malone said, shouldn't be too much of a concern. Murray spent most of his time at Kentucky in that role because of point guard Tyler Ulis. The Wildcats were so dependent on those two guards that Murray still got plenty of chances to create with the ball in his hands. He also showed an impressive ability to catch and shoot coming off screens.

The Nuggets still have veteran point guard Jameer Nelson locked up for two more years, and they could use his wisdom in the rotation with so many young guys on the roster, particularly in the backcourt. Murray fits nicely alongside Nelson because the veteran is less of a scorer these days, while the rookie is a high-volume shooter who needs a lot of touches. Both he and Will Barton should provide some perimeter scoring punch in Denver's second unit.

Murray's three-point shooting will be key to how many minutes he earns. Denver averaged 8.0 threes per game last season and ranked 25th in the NBA in three-point accuracy (33.8 percent), while Murray made 113 threes on 40.8 percent shooting at Kentucky. He was also a sniper last summer for the Canadian national team, averaging 16 points per contest and shooting 40 percent from deep at the Pan Am Games as an 18-year-old playing at the national level for the first time.

That success should temper some of the concerns about his shooting struggles in Vegas.

Concerns

Scouts worried about Murray's average athleticism at Kentucky, and that was his most glaring weakness in Vegas. He struggled to get separation in isolation situations and had a hard time getting to the basket off the bounce without a ball screen.

However, he was effective creating space using the ball screen, and he has the in-between game to still get points even when he cannot get to the bucket.

When he was decisive and got to his spots, he shot the ball well from the mid-range and hit a good percentage of his floaters in the lane. He also makes up for his lack of explosion at the rim with some ambidexterity that allows him to finish with either hand.

Murray shot poorly from deep because he was forcing too many difficult shots. Anytime he tried a step-back three, it went poorly. He also had a tendency to overdribble, drain the shot clock and force the Nuggets into a bad look.

Murray's lack of quickness also showed up on the defensive end: He had trouble staying in front of quicker guards and struggled in ball-screen situations, getting hung up on the screen and taken out of the play.

"With guys like this who can play both guard spots, sometimes there's some confusion what to do with them," a Western Conference scout told me during Kentucky's season. "I think that if you look at him [Murray] as a point guard like some people do, it might be more difficult to get him on the floor right away because he doesn't have the speed and athleticism, but he can make shots and that's really important."

Malone could have to get creative with his rotations, making sure the Nuggets always have someone on the floor capable of defending a point guard when Murray is in. He usually plays with solid effort on that end, but it could take time before he learns how to compensate for his lack of quickness.

Expectations

Murray was a slow starter in Vegas, but it was telling that he shook it off and never lost confidence in his ability to get buckets. He was the second-leading scorer for Team Canada last summer, and he was the go-to guy right away in the pressure cooker that is Kentucky basketball.

Murray is not going to be intimidated by the NBA game. One of his best moments in summer league was late in a loss to the Miami Heat when he got extra aggressive and started chirping with former Louisville guard Damion Lee.

He dropped 29 points in that game. The downside was he needed 25 shots to get there.

The key to Murray's success could be how the Nuggets generate scoring opportunities for him. That could take some creativity. He thrived at Kentucky running off screens, but that was another area where he struggled to get loose in summer league. It's going to take time to figure out how to get the best looks, but he's not going to shy away from shooting during that process.

As in summer league, Murray is probably going to be fairly inefficient as a scorer during his rookie season. Yet, one can be optimistic about his future by looking to the career arc of Chauncey Billups, who was a comparison for Murray during the predraft process.

Billups got off to a slow start during his career, and it was an early mystery how best to use him. He played on five teams over his first six years before settling in as a championship-winning point guard and savvy two-way vet. Like Billups, Murray has some bulk in his upper body that should help him generate space and get shots. However, when you can't blow by defenders, there's more of a learning curve as a scorer.

Murray may not live up to his initial rank on Denver's draft board, and he could see competition for minutes with fellow rookie guard Malik Beasley, who did not play in summer league because of injury. The 19th pick out of Florida State is a high-upside guy who many scouts I talked to during the season liked.

However, the Nuggets seem to think enough of Murray that he'll get every chance to succeed. Given the minutes, it's a safe bet he'll figure out a way to get his points.