Ranking the Top 10 Potential 2016 MLB Trade Deadline Steals
With less than two weeks until MLB's non-waiver trade deadline, everyone now knows the top candidates to move.
Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Jonathan Lucroy, Rich Hill, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller will light the rumor mill on fire leading up to August 1. Some of those guys will stay put, and the ones who go will cost a pretty penny and some valuable prospects.
Not every contender has the deep pockets or trade capital to pull off the megadeal. Those teams must instead search for bargains among the mid-tier trade chips. If they're lucky, perhaps they can successfully gamble on a struggling talent for cents on the dollar.
This isn't a look at the top trade options, but instead the best potential values among players with a feasible chance of changing teams. The order considers age, contracts and the likely asking price along with the person's current performance, so players are not ranked according to overall worth in a vacuum.
Nobody listed is the lone missing piece to a championship, but these guys can help without breaking the bank.
Honorable Mentions
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Ryan Raburn, OF, Colorado Rockies
Sporting a career .825 OPS against lefties, Ryan Raburn is a useful addition to round out the bench or fill the short end of an outfield platoon. Having such a specialist could come in handy during the postseason.
Andrew Cashner, SP, San Diego Padres
A disastrous outing before the All-Star break bloated Andrew Cashner's ERA to 5.04, and the righty has accrued a career-low 6.8 swinging-strike percentage.
While he's enduring an ugly season, those troubles could make him a worthwhile low-risk flier if the San Diego Padres look to shed his expiring contract.
Jon Niese, SP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates general manager Neil Huntington didn't exactly boost his leverage by publicly berating himself for taking Jon Niese instead of "two fringe prospects" for Neil Walker last winter during a recent interview with 93.7 The Fan (h/t Mike Matvey of the New York Daily News).
The southpaw has lost his rotation spot with a 4.89 ERA and 5.36 fielding independent pitching (FIP), so Pittsburgh wouldn't get anywhere near as good a return as the New York Mets if it flips him. Yet someone truly desperate for pitching depth might want to gamble on an affordable 29-year-old with a career 4.00 ERA and 50.3 ground-ball rate.
10. Boone Logan, RP, Colorado Rockies
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The truest constant of MLB's trade deadline: A left-handed relief specialist will get dealt to a contender. This isn't referring to a stud a la Chapman or Miller, but a cheap acquisition attained specifically to slay fellow lefties.
Boone Logan has conquered all challengers this season, posting a 2.84 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 25.1 innings. Opponents are hitting .169 against the Colorado Rockies southpaw, who has accumulated 31 strikeouts and a 50.9 ground-ball rate.
Those elite numbers come attached to a 31-year-old with a 4.44 career ERA as well as a .473 slugging percentage against right-handed hitters. As a result, most clubs will still view him as a LOOGY. A prospective buyer, however, may receive more.
Away from Coors Field, Logan has locked down a .128/.184/.152 slash line, and he sports a career 3.58 ERA on the road compared to a 5.31 mark at home. After spending the past seven seasons with the New York Yankees and Rockies, he could truly shine in a neutral or pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Chapman and Miller will dominate pre-deadline headlines, but someone will do well by instead peddling a low-level prospect for Logan.
9. Yunel Escobar, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
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Maybe this Yunel Escobar is for real.
When he batted .314 last year, everyone scoffed at an infielder who spent the prior three seasons in the .250s. Despite his strong performance, the Washington Nationals sent him to the Los Angeles Angels for minor league reliever Trevor Gott and 29-year-old journeyman Michael Brady. If the Angels flip him this month, they better get more.
The 33-year-old hasn't missed a beat, hitting .318/.368/.415 with a 118 weighted runs created plus (wRC+) nearly identical to last year. He's also a limited defender with three homers, but he has offered elite contact for nearly 950 plate appearances. At the least, he's the .290 guy from earlier in his career.
Per MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez, Escobar received an endorsement from a current teammate and future Hall of Famer.
"He's a good hitter," Albert Pujols said. "He has a good idea at the plate of what he wants to do. He had a great spring, and he actually is a guy with a high on-base percentage, low strikeout [rate]. He puts the ball in play. He's a good player. He's a .300 hitter. He's having a great year."
A string of ejections could deflate his value, but a $7 million club option for 2017 maintains his status as a desirable commodity.
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8. Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
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A team willing to open its checkbook can solidify a rotation upgrade in veteran starter Ervin Santana.
The 33-year-old righty is set to make $27 million combined through 2017 and 2018 with a $14 million club option for the following year. That's now fair market value for a decent starter, but it's not a contract the 33-59 Minnesota Twins want on their ledger.
According to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, the Twins would settle for a smaller return if a team absorbs the rest of his contract. He identified the Baltimore Orioles and a Kansas City Royals reunion as possible destinations.
Santana has netted a 4.12 ERA in 17 starts with a career-low 6.68 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9). Yet he has also turned the corner with a 2.18 ERA over his last five starts, including a complete-game two-hitter against the Oakland Athletics on July 6.
Before serving an 80-game suspension last year for violating the MLB Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program, he made at least 30 starts in four straight seasons. A durable veteran with above-average command can help most squads, and baseball has evolved beyond anyone cowering from his 3-8 record.
7. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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Acquiring Jeremy Hellickson won't make a big splash, but good luck finding a starting pitcher whose transfer will alter the league's landscape.
This isn't last year, when David Price, Cole Hamels and Johnny Cueto anchored postseason rotations for their respective new clubs. Unless young aces Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray and Chris Archer become serious trade chips rather than heavily speculated options, a recently injured Hill represents the best starting upgrade.
For a team needing affordable rotation depth—aka everyone—Jeremy Hellickson stands out as an appealing target.
Brought in to augment a young Philadelphia Phillies staff, the 29-year-old righty has posted a 4.03 ERA, 7.90 K/9 and 2.18 BB/9 over 111.2 innings. He has lasted at least six frames in all but one of his last dozen outings, eight of which qualify as quality starts.
According to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro, the Miami Marlins are targeting Hellickson from their National League East foe. Having surrendered a career-worst 1.45 home runs per nine innings, moving to the spacious Marlins Park would give him the boost necessary to serve as a solid No. 3 or 4 starter for Miami.
A two-month rental with a 3.95 career ERA won't cost the moon, which makes Hellickson the perfect target for a team looking for a reasonable upgrade without selling the farm.
6. Danny Valencia, 3B, Oakland Athletics
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Danny Valencia leads the Oakland Athletics with a 126 wRC+. Since getting claimed off waivers last summer, he's hitting .296/.355/.507 with 23 homers in 490 plate appearances.
Yet he might get tossed to the side of the road again.
According to the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser, Oakland may designate the third baseman for assignment, which the Toronto Blue Jays did last year. The team has already reduced his role after promoting third baseman Ryon Healy last weekend.
"We're in a position where we need to learn some things about some of these guys," A's general manager David Forst told Slusser on Friday, a day before Healy hit his first career home run.
How did Valencia go from the team's best hitter to an afterthought? An organization immortalized in print and the big screen for devaluing defense is benching a hitter for his abysmal defensive metrics. Other teams must have taken notice as well if interest is low enough for Oakland to consider giving him away.
If that's the case, why is Jay Bruce an All-Star and a hot deadline target with minus-12 defensive runs saved? Valencia's bat can still help a contender's offense, especially if it's an American League team that can slot him as a designated hitter. Defensive metrics fluctuate greatly, so a team reading these reports should send Oakland a low-level prospect for the third baseman.
5. Nathan Eovaldi, SP, New York Yankees
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At 46-46 with a 7.5-game deficit in the AL East, the New York Yankees should be ready to wave the white flag. Even if they don't flip the switch to sell mode, they might lose patience with Nathan Eovaldi.
Following a promising string of May outings, the 26-year-old righty relinquished 31 runs through six starts, prompting manager Joe Girardi to move him to the bullpen. While he has tossed 7.2 scoreless frames in the new role, he will return to the rotation on Tuesday.
If he can't rebound as a starter, the Bronx Bombers could start fielding offers. According to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review's Rob Biertempfel, the Pirates have reached out about making Eovaldi their latest reclamation project.
Eovaldi throws his fastball faster than every starter besides Noah Syndergaard, but his velocity has only produced a career 4.22 ERA and 6.60 K/9. His K/9 has climbed to a career-high 7.39, but he has also yielded 19 homers.
A 20.4 home run-fly ball (HR/FB) percentage well above his career 8.8 rate spells a bounce-back to solid contributions, especially if he moves out of Yankee Stadium. While it's time to stop dreaming of the ace he could become, Eovaldi is still a solid, young and cheap starter all teams should target.
4. Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds
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Zack Cozart corralled an on-base percentage below .300 for three consecutive seasons, but the Cincinnati Reds kept playing the light-hitting shortstop for his defense. Suddenly, he has gotten the offense part down, too.
Springing off last year's uptick, he's hitting .264/.314/.472 with 15 homers, which matches his career high set in 2012. His 103 wRC+ indicates a slightly above-average shortstop and not the byproduct of a hitters' park. In fact, he has hit better away from Great American Ball Park.
Even with the latest influx of premier young shortstops, it's no easy task finding a positive offensive and defensive contributor. He's also 30 and eligible for free agency after 2017, so now is a sensible time for the rebuilding Reds to field offers.
With his elevated power and walk rates spanning over two seasons, a prospective buyer should trust these improvements. Worst-case scenario, it gets a defensive guru instead of a borderline All-Star.
3. Derek Norris, C, San Diego Padres
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As Derek Norris hits .208/.268/.390 for the Padres, Austin Hedges is beckoning for a promotion with a .369/.412/.739 slash line and 16 homers in 42 Triple-A games. Christian Bethancourt has also bestowed San Diego with a 110 wRC+ off the bench.
Catching depth is a rarity the Padres possess, and they may view Norris' struggles as more than a fluke. After all, the 27-year-old has registered a career-high 28.5 strikeout percentage, and his depreciated walk rate (6.8 percent) has carried over from last season.
Catchers decay faster than most position players, but he's still in his peak years and won't hit free agency until 2019. He's also a commendable receiver behind the plate who has played more games than all but four catchers since 2013.
He's in the midst of a reverse Cozart, diminishing from a plus hitter and defender to an above-average contributor despite his offensive limitations. A prospective buyer wouldn't mind settling for the 2015 Norris who hit .250/.304/.404 with a 98 wRC+ and 2.4 WAR.
That guy makes a better long-term investment than Lucroy because of his age and contract status, but the Milwaukee Brewers All-Star will cost more for the immediate jolt. If San Diego sells, even a team outside the playoff hunt should try to buy low.
2. Michael Pineda, SP, New York Yankees
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If available, Michael Pineda's trade market would fascinate as a case study of how MLB front offices measure results versus peripherals.
On the surface, the 27-year-old is having an atrocious year for the Yankees. His 5.56 ERA is the second-highest of all qualified starters, and he has surrendered 110 hits in 100.1 innings. Health has also hindered him from working 175 or more innings in a single season since debuting in 2011.
But don't overlook the good. Strikeouts and walks are typically a strong indicator of success, but Pineda has accrued a 10.67 K/9 and 2.42 BB/9 through his woes. Clayton Kershaw, Jose Fernandez, Noah Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Madison Bumgarner are the only starters with better strikeouts-minus-walks percentages (K-BB) than his 21.1.
As a result, Cafardo said the polarizing righty "would be the second-most sought-after starter behind Hill." Nevertheless, the Yankees can't expect a package worthy of a young starter with elite strikeout and walk numbers.
Having already surrendered 15 home runs inside Yankee Stadium this season, a change of scenery could spark Pineda's turnaround. He showed great progress with a 2.75 ERA in June before yielding five runs in back-to-back starts, leaving everyone to wonder if he'll ever consistently harness his command.
It's a high-risk, high-reward endeavor for everyone involved. Given his upside, the Yankees should keep trotting him out through the painful nadirs and focus on pawning off their expiring veterans.
1. Yangervis Solarte, 3B, San Diego Padres
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Instead of doubling down on their overzealous trades prior to 2015, the Padres have recoiled back into seller's mode. They have already shown their willingness to maneuver by dealing pitchers James Shields, Fernando Rodney and Drew Pomeranz well before the deadline. Now they can turn their attention to shopping Yangervis Solarte.
The 29-year-old infielder is quietly hitting a tremendous .295/.368/.521 with nine homers and a career-best 2.0 WAR. He's a solid hitter and versatile fielder, but not one with an overly flashy skill. A career .270 hitter who has never gone deep 15 or more times in a single season won't spark a bidding war from eager suitors.
Anyone needing infield depth shouldn't mislabel his late breakout as a fluke. He showed signs of this production last year when he hit .292/.336/.470 with nine homers after the All-Star break. It's cherry-picking data points, but that gives him a .293 average and 18 dingers over his past 123 games.
He's old enough for a bottom-feeder to consider moving, but Solarte will enter his first year of arbitration this offseason. While the Padres don't need to trade him—and probably shouldn't unless they get a great offer—they shipped out Pomeranz to the Boston Red Sox under similar circumstances.
Anyone can afford him, and just about anyone could use an above-average hitter capable of playing third, second or first base. Forget Matt Kemp; Solarte is the San Diego position player contenders should covet.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted and current through July 18 games. Contract information obtained via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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