Stock Up, Stock Down on Top 2016 MLB Trade Targets
You've heard the rumblings. You've sifted through the rumors. Now, at long last, the Aug. 1 MLB non-waiver trade deadline is in sight.
Seriously, squint your eyes. You can see it, right?
In the next week and change, a handful of impact trades will go down, and the balance of power will shift across both leagues. That much we know.
Who's on the move? That's where the picture gets murkier.
To clarify things a tad, let's parse a dozen of 2016's top trade candidates and assess whether their stock is up or down, using recent on-field performance and any health issues as our primary guides.
In curating this list, we've left off a few marquee names—guys like Colorado Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and New York Yankees reliever Andrew Miller, whose clubs appear inclined to keep them barring a farm-system-emptying offer. Likewise, players with serious injuries (such as Atlanta Braves closer Arodys Vizcaino) or albatross contracts (such as San Diego Padres outfielder Matt Kemp) didn't make the cut.
It's not an exhaustive rundown of every guy who could swap uniforms by July's end. But it's a representative sampling of the available impact talent.
Stretch out those commenting muscles and proceed when ready.
Carlos Beltran, RF, New York Yankees
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At 47-46, the Yankees remain on the trade-deadline bubble. If they rip off a few more wins, it's easy to imagine them standing pat and hoping to sneak into the wild-card race. A losing streak, though, could trigger a sell-off.
Don't mistake it for a fire sale. As Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer recently elucidated, even if the Yankees become sellers, they'll probably only move a couple of desirable, pending-free-agent pieces.
Enter Carlos Beltran.
The 39-year-old veteran will hit the open market this winter, making him a pure rental. He's also hitting .301 with 19 home runs and owns an eye-opening 1.115 OPS in 223 postseason plate appearances.
Injury concerns are ever-present, meaning a full-time move to designated hitter could be the best way to optimize Beltran's bat.
But he's gone 6-for-18 out of the All-Star break after appearing in his ninth Midsummer Classic, and he would be an enticing option for a host of contenders seeking an offensive boost.
Stock: Up
Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
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Ryan Braun's comeback season was generating trade buzz back in May, so it's no surprise he makes the cut here.
But the Milwaukee Brewers slugger has seen his OPS drop more than 60 points in July, and he has hit just two home runs since June 12.
Add his performance-enhancing-drug baggage and the fact that he's owed at least $80 million between 2017 and 2021, and it's easy to imagine prospective buyers taking a pass, especially given the presence of other available power-hitting corner outfielders.
Braun's name will undoubtedly keep churning through the rumor mill. On Tuesday, Fox Sports' Dieter Kurtenbach posited the Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox and Baltimore Orioles as possible fits.
At this point, however, the safe money is on Braun remaining a Brewer.
Stock: Down
Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds
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Speaking of other power-hitting outfielders on the block, the Cincinnati Reds' Jay Bruce is one of the biggest, likeliest bats to move before the deadline.
The 29-year-old owns an .848 OPS with 19 home runs and 66 RBI. And he's got a $13 million team option with a $1 million buyout for 2017, meaning he could be a rental or more, depending on the financial constraints of the buyer and his stretch-run performance.
After ho-hum seasons in 2014 and 2015, Bruce—a two-time top-10 National League MVP finisher—is proving his 2016 bounce-back is no fluke.
He even made a veiled trade request during the All-Star break.
"It behooves [the Reds] to take a look at everything that could improve the franchise," Bruce said, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Indeed it does, Jay. Indeed it does.
Stock: Up
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Aroldis Chapman, RP, New York Yankees
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Does the ability to throw a baseball 105 mph in a game earn you "stock up" status? You bet it does.
In addition to rattling radar guns, Aroldis Chapman is the member of the Yankees' late-inning bullpen troika most likely to be dealt. That's because, unlike Miller and Dellin Betances, he'll be a free agent after this season.
Indeed, the Yanks are "going full bore" to engineer a Chapman swap, per ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney.
Chapman's 40 strikeouts in 28.1 innings don't hurt his value, and neither does the fact that he's allowed just one earned run in his last 11 appearances.
The domestic violence suspension that sidelined him to start the season remains an issue, but with so many contenders seeking relief help, Chapman figures to be a scalding-hot commodity.
Stock: Up
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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After winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2011 with the Tampa Bay Rays, Jeremy Hellickson quickly fell off the elite-arm map.
He hasn't been elite this season, but the 29-year-old Philadelphia Phillies right-hander has zipped past serviceable, posting a 4.03 ERA in 111.2 innings.
Hellickson—an impending free agent—has lasted at least six innings in his last seven starts, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio sits at 3.63, the best mark since his abbreviated 2010 debut.
Hellickson's not an ace, but he'd slot nicely into the back end of multiple contending rotations. Hence a report on Monday from MLB.com's Joe Frisaro that the Miami Marlins have put him "on their radar."
In a thin starting pitcher market, they won't be alone.
Stock: Up
Rich Hill, SP, Oakland Athletics
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Overall, Rich Hill has been a great story for the Oakland A's, posting a 2.25 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 76 innings.
That should, by extension, make him a lucrative trade chip for an Oakland team that's headed nowhere except another rebuild.
But the 36-year-old southpaw exited his start against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 17 after just five pitches because of a blister on his left middle finger.
"I really can't explain it because I've never had anything like this before," Hill said, per MLB.com's . "I've had blisters on a different part of my finger before, but nothing like this."
It's not likely a long-term injury. At the same time, it doesn't help the Athletics' cause if they're seeking to maximize Hill's value. He'll be a free agent after this season, remember, so his durability for the stretch run is paramount.
Stock: Down
Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Milwaukee Brewers
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After Chapman, the crowded reliever market falls off, assuming the Yankees don't deal Miller or Betances.
Of the remaining options, the Brewers' Jeremy Jeffress might be the most intriguing.
The 28-year-old right-hander owns a 2.29 ERA and has converted 23 of 24 save opportunities. He hasn't allowed an earned run in eight appearances since June 17. And he's under team control until 2020.
Not surprisingly, the Brewers will expect a rich return for Jeffress, as Peter Gammons reported on July 11.
But with so many bullpens in need of bolstering and relatively few impact closers remaining on the block, there may be a team or two willing to pay up.
Stock: Up
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
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The list of premium catchers who could be moved this summer is as exclusive as it gets. There's Jonathan Lucroy, and that's it.
The 30-year-old two-time All-Star is hitting .305 with an .855 OPS. He's among the game's top 10 pitch framers, per StatCorner. And he's got an exceedingly affordable $5.25 million team option for 2017.
As if he needed to put a finer point on it, he's gone 5-for-15 since the All-Star break with a home run and three RBI.
We know Lucroy's preference. "I want to win, and I don't see us winning in the foreseeable future," he said, per Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel. "I want to go to a World Series. That's what all players want. Rebuilding is not a lot of fun for any veteran guy."
Milwaukee will surely demand a raft of top prospects, but Lucroy is the type of talent that could tip a race somewhere—then come back next season and do it again.
Stock: Up
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
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It's unclear if the Rays plan to offload their cache of starting pitchers.
According to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, the Los Angeles Dodgers have been "sniffing hard" after Rays right-hander Chris Archer. However, Cafardo added, "Right now the answer on Archer is no."
That could change. For the moment, we'll focus on Tampa Bay's next-best pitching piece, Jake Odorizzi, who seems marginally more likely to don new laundry by Aug. 1.
The 26-year-old right-hander sports a 4.39 ERA through 20 starts. But he flashed ace-level stuff in a July 17 start against the potent Orioles, allowing two earned runs with seven strikeouts and one walk in six innings.
Tampa Bay may hang on to Odorizzi, who won't become a free agent until 2020. If it opts to shop him now, though, he could be the cream of the trade-deadline starting pitcher crop.
Stock: Up
Josh Reddick, RF, Oakland Athletics
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Since returning from a fractured thumb on June 28, Josh Reddick has hit just one home run and watched his OPS tumble more than 40 points.
With other right fielders such as Bruce and Beltran on the block, that nudges the 29-year-old toward sell-low status.
At the same time, he'll be a free agent this winter, so look for Oakland to shop him with purpose.
There will be interest. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle listed the Dodgers, Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals and Kansas City Royals among the squads that might covet Reddick's services.
For the moment, though, the thumb injury and tepid return have dampened his value.
Stock: Down
Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
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Even after adding All-Star Drew Pomeranz from the Padres, the Boston Red Sox have scouted Minnesota Twins right-hander Ervin Santana, per Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press.
Why not? The Red Sox need starting pitching, and it's a thin market, as we've repeatedly noted.
Sure, Santana owns a 4.12 ERA, is owed $13.5 million each of the next two seasons and was hit with an 80-game PED suspension in April 2015.
On the other hand, the 33-year-old righty twirled a complete-game shutout with eight strikeouts on July 6. And his 3.98 FIP suggests he's still an effective big league starter.
Heck, with this winter's free-agent cupboard as bare as it is, even his contract looks semi-palatable.
Stock: Up
Danny Valencia, 3B, Oakland A's
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At the end of June, Danny Valencia was hitting .324 with a .900 OPS. Entering play Wednesday, he's hitting .298 with an .827 OPS.
Those are still solid numbers, and the A's infielder could be moved. But, as CBS Sports' Mike Axisa noted, Valencia is going to cede playing time in the East Bay to rookie Ryon Healy.
The 31-year-old Valencia isn't a plus defender. Add his diminished offensive output, and it's possible, Axisa opined, that he "could find himself designated for assignment, which happened last summer when he was with the Blue Jays."
It says here the A's and executive Billy Beane will find a taker for Valencia before that's necessary. The New York Mets, to pick one example, have a need for runs and a hole at the hot corner.
But clearly Valencia's not the commodity he was even a few weeks ago.
Stock: Down
All statistics current as of July 19 and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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