20 Sleeper Player of the Year Candidates for College Basketball in 2016-17

A sure sign that a college sports season is just around the corner is the release of preseason "watch lists" for various national awards. This is happening right now for college football, indicating that sport is soon to be underway.

But it will be several months before we get the same for college basketball's major honors, the Wooden and Naismith Awards, which will put out watch lists in October that identify the top players heading into the 2016-17 season. When this happens there will be a lot of expected names, the so-called front-runners for National Player of the Year honors such as the most high-profile returning stars as well as the top incoming freshmen.

And the rest of the watch list will be populated by players who, at the very best, would be considered long shots to win it all. We're taking some time to shed light on these less-heralded standouts, picking out 20 players that in the right situation could end up collecting some hardware at the end of the 2016-17 season.

Bryce Alford, UCLA

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Year: Senior

Position: Guard

It would be a big slap in the face to the anti-Steve Alford faction of UCLA's fanbase if his much-maligned son were to win an award named after famed coach John Wooden, who led the Bruins to 10 national titles. Then again, for that to happen it would mean UCLA would be living up to some high team expectations, and fans would probably be OK with the trade-off.

Bryce Alford has served as a lightning rod for the criticism his father has taken throughout his UCLA tenure. This was particularly evident in 2015-16 when the Bruins slid to 15-17 overall and had their worst Pac-12 record (6-12) in 13 years, with Bryce Alford averaging 16.1 points and 5.2 assists but shooting a career-low 36.7 percent from three-point range.

Hopes are high in Westwood this season because of the arrival of a top-notch recruiting class, led by point guard Lonzo Ball, who some think could push Alford to the side. Or he could end up allowing Alford to thrive as an off-the-ball scorer, the kind who has developed a reputation for hitting big shots late in games and could do that more often without having to worry about running the offense.

Antonio Blakeney, LSU

Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

Year: Sophomore

Position: Guard

LSU brought in two 5-star prospects for the 2015-16 season, but Ben Simmons drew so much attention—not to mention a steady stream of NBA scouts—that Antonio Blakeney was quickly forgotten. And while he had a good freshman year, it paled in comparison to Simmons' diverse numbers.

Blakeney averaged 12.6 points and 3.5 rebounds while shooting 42.5 percent overall and 33.5 percent from three-point range. His eight 20-point games were second only to Simmons (who had 18), but because they didn't also come while posting double- or triple-doubles, these performances didn't get much praise.

With Simmons going No. 1 in the 2016 NBA draft, as projected before he arrived at LSU, Blakeney now has the opportunity to be the kind of go-to player someone rated 16th in his recruiting class is expected to be. And if that means not just making the NCAA tournament but going deep, which the Tigers haven't done since 2006, that could lead to national awards.

Chris Boucher, Oregon

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Year: Senior

Position: Center

Oregon's Pac-12 champion and Elite Eight team returns almost completely intact for 2016-17, which means the Ducks should be well-represented on preseason Player of the Year watch lists. Wing Dillon Brooks is a no-doubter, and guard Tyler Dorsey figures to be considered after his strong freshman year.

Chris Boucher deserves a look as much as those two, if only to make sure that the “guys who can block you on one end of the court and shoot over you on the other” faction of college basketball is represented.

This isn't a large group, as only 10 Division I players made 30 or more three-pointers and also blocked 50 or more shots last season. Boucher is their flag bearer, swatting a school-record 110 shots and draining 39 threes at an impressive 33.9 percent clip.

Boucher won't be the focal point of Oregon's offense, but his defensive presence holds that part of the Ducks' game plan together. He can also spark scoring with those blocks, and a Final Four run won't happen without him doing all of that.

Miles Bridges, Michigan State

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Year: Freshman

Position: Forward

Michigan State's Denzel Valentine was a finalist for both the Naismith and Wooden Awards this past season, and rightfully so. He led the Spartans in scoring and assists and was second in rebounds, and had they not been bounced from the NCAA tournament in the first round, he might have won one of those trophies.

With his graduation, MSU has a major void in its lineup, one that no single player on the roster is likely able to fill. But if it were possible for an individual to do this, Miles Bridges would be that guy.

"Miles Bridges is possibly the best recruit that Tom Izzo has ever signed," Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller wrote.

Freshmen don't tend to put up big numbers for Izzo—only six have averaged double figures, none more than 12.9 points per game—but MSU is noticeably devoid of experienced scorers this year. Bridges should be able to top that mark and then some.

Elijah Brown, New Mexico

Aaron Sweet/Getty Images

Year: Junior

Position: Guard

The mid-majors will usually have a handful of players make the Wooden and Naismith watch lists, but by the time the list gets cut midway through the season it's mostly power-conference stars left in the running. Staying in the running when not playing in one of the big leagues requires a monster year, and Elijah Brown has already shown he can do that.

In 2016-17 he'll have to make that happen while also returning New Mexico to its place near the top of the Mountain West Conference to remain in Player of the Year consideration.

Last season, his first after transferring from Butler, Brown exploded to average 21.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game while shooting 39.4 percent from three-point range. His numbers were a big bump from what he posted as a freshman at Butler, though they were mostly discounted since the Lobos went 17-15.

Tyler Davis, Texas A&M

Associated Press

Year: Sophomore

Position: Center

Last season's run to the Sweet 16 was fueled by a mix of veterans and youngsters, a formula Texas A&M head coach Billy Kennedy blended perfectly. A repeat of that will be more dependent on the underclassmen after the Aggies lost six seniors, including three of their top four scorers.

The highest-scoring returner is Tyler Davis, a 6'10” block of granite who averaged 11.3 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks on 65.5 percent shooting as a freshman. However, he didn't have to put the team on his shoulders because of the experience around him in the frontcourt in the form of Danuel House and Jalen Jones. That's no longer the case, which means Davis will step into a much greater role in 2016-17.

Davis has shown the ability to erupt from time to time, going for 15 points and 12 rebounds in A&M's overtime win over Kentucky and making all six of his shots in a blowout victory over Baylor.

Nick Emery, BYU

Young Kwak/Associated Press

Year: Sophomore

Position: Guard

The last player from a non-power conference team to win either the Naismith or Wooden Award was Jimmer Fredette, a BYU guard who led the nation in scoring as a senior and got the Cougars to the Sweet 16 in 2011. Nick Emery more than doubled what Fredette did as a freshman, putting him in line to be BYU's next great scoring machine.

Emery averaged 16.3 points and made 97 three-pointers, the most threes by a BYU freshman and the second-best freshman scoring average in program history. And that was on a senior-dominated team where two other players averaged 15 or more points per game.

With Chase Fischer and triple-double machine Kyle Collinsworth graduating, Emery becomes the primary scorer and could challenge for the national scoring lead. Parlay that with a West Coast Conference title and some postseason wins, and Emery can be BYU's second National Player of the Year in six seasons.

Markelle Fultz, Washington

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Year: Freshman

Position: Guard

Washington had two first-round NBA draft picks and a 20-point scorer on its roster but couldn't make the NCAA tournament last season, the fifth straight year head coach Lorenzo Romar failed to get the Huskies into the Big Dance. Maybe this time around it will be different, if only because they'll be more dependent on one player than three.

Markelle Fultz, the No. 5 player in the 2016 recruiting class, is a combo guard that might as well be a do-it-all guard since Washington is going to be turning to him for everything in 2016-17. Andrew Andrews, Marquese Chriss and Dejounte Murray combined for nearly 51 points per game last season, and no returning player averaged more than 7.5.

However, Fultz's pro prospects aren't likely to be dependent on how his team does this season, as he's sitting as the projected No. 2 pick in 2017, per DraftExpress. Being able to carry the Huskies back to the NCAA tourney could make him a legend as well as their first-ever National Player of the Year.

Jack Gibbs, Davidson

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Year: Senior

Position: Guard

Dating back to 1990, there have been four non-power conference players to win Player of the Year, all of whom either led the country in scoring, got their team to the Final Four or were on one that went unbeaten in the regular season. Davidson's probably not going to be good enough to do the second or third of those options, but Jack Gibbs is more than capable of topping the scoring charts.

His 23.4 points per game last season were second-most among returning players, trailing only Howard's James Daniel (27.1). Gibbs had 10 games with at least 30 points—second to Naismith and Wooden Award winner Buddy Hield's 12—and his three 40-point games were the most in Division I.

Davidson won 20 games last year and took the Atlantic 10 regular-season title the season before, when Gibbs scored 16.2 points per game as a sophomore. Combine the 2014-15 team effort with the 2015-16 individual effort, but bump both up a notch, and Gibbs can win it all.

Harry Giles, Duke

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Year: Freshman

Position: Forward

Sure, it's odd to have a player on this list who spent much of last year as the top-rated recruit in the 2016 class (and who finished up No. 2), and who DraftExpress projects as the first pick in the 2017 NBA draft. He's likely to be on all the preseason watch lists, and pro teams are apt to tank to get him onto their roster, but so much depends on how this oft-injured prospect rebounds.

Harry Giles missed almost his entire senior year of high school with a torn ACL in early November, just minutes into his first game with Oak Hill Academy. This was his second time tearing knee ligaments during his prep career.

Rehab continues for the 6'11” power forward, but his prognosis for the start of the 2016-17 season is uncertain. He could probably sit out the entire year and still go high in the draft, and, in reality, any production he gives Duke in his lone year of college will be helpful.

Giles, though, wants to be a full-time contributor. Being able to play at 100 percent will make Duke's chances of a second national title in three seasons possible. And although it would come thanks to he and two other Player of the Year candidates (Grayson Allen, fellow freshman Jayson Tatum), Giles would be just as deserving of those honors if he could put together a big year that at this point doesn't seem probable.

Ethan Happ, Wisconsin

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Year: Sophomore

Position: Forward

Frank Kaminsky won the Naismith and Wooden Awards in 2014-15 as a senior, just a few seasons after being buried so deep on Wisconsin's bench that former head coach Bo Ryan might as well have redshirted him as a freshman. That's what he did with Ethan Happ that season, mostly because Kaminsky was getting all of the minutes that Happ would be up for, and it could prove to be a major boon for the Badgers.

After sitting out his first year of college, Happ went on to anchor Wisconsin's frontcourt in 2015-16, averaging 12.4 points and a team-best 7.9 rebounds while shooting 53.8 percent. He only played 28 minutes per game, but when on the court he often picked up the slack for Nigel Hayes and his shooting issues.

Hayes and Happ, along with the rest of Wisconsin's key players, return this season. The Badgers could be the Big Ten favorites, and while Hayes has the best shot on the team to win some national awards, if he struggles offensively again and Happ continues to improve, then a second Badger will deserve consideration.

V.J. King, Louisville

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

Year: Freshman

Position: Forward

V.J. King is the highest-ranked player head coach Rick Pitino has signed at Louisville since Chane Behanan in 2011, but that doesn't guarantee him a starting spot. Pitino has said this offseason that King will "see a lot of playing time," per Rivals.com's Howie Lindsey, but rising sophomores Deng Adel and Donovan Mitchell could block his path to being on the floor at the beginning of the game.

If he can work his way into the lineup, though, King's still set is the kind that will likely cause him to rocket up the Player of the Year charts if it coincides with Louisville winning the ACC and making another deep NCAA tournament run.

He's 6'6 ½” but has the reach of a much taller player, which will make him a key piece in the Cardinals' defensive game plan. He's also stepping into the position that Damion Lee thrived in last year, so it's built for someone who wants to score a lot.

Kennedy Meeks, North Carolina

Eric Gay/Associated Press

Year: Senior

Position: Center

Roy Williams' teams at North Carolina have shared two distinct traits: an uptempo system and lots of big men. The team that lost on a buzzer-beater to Villanova in the national title game averaged almost 83 points per game and had a quartet of post players who shared minutes, production and praise.

It's all about Kennedy Meeks in the paint this season, as Brice Johnson and Joel James have graduated while Isaiah Hicks is a clear second option to Meeks, a player who has spent his career molding his body to become more capable of handling a bigger role. Meeks has lost 30 pounds since coming to school as a 290-pound freshman, replacing much of his fat with muscle.

Meeks' junior year was a bit of a drop-off from his sophomore season, averaging 9.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game, but he might be saving his best for last.

Monte Morris, Iowa State

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports

Year: Senior

Position: Guard

At 10.8 points per game for his career, Monte Morris' career scoring average is 24.0 percent lower than the 14.2 points per game that 2011-12 Naismith and Wooden winner Anthony Davis had at Kentucky. Davis was the runaway winner that season because he did so much more than score, averaging a double-double and leading the country in blocks per game.

Morris would need to have a similarly impactful senior year in 2016-17 in order to have a shot at winning one of those awards, though his other contributions would come through setting others up to score and not wasting possessions.

His 6.9 assists per game last season ranked eighth in Division I, while his 4.23 assist-to-turnover ratio was third-best. His career ratio is 4.48, far above the NCAA record of 3.01.

Morris will need to score, no doubt at a career-best clip, with Iowa State skewing younger this season, but his ball-handling will be just as important to the Cyclones' Big 12 hopes and his award chances.

London Perrantes, Virginia

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Year: Senior

Position: Guard

We included London Perrantes on our list of top Player of the Year candidates back in April, but at 200-1, he's a long shot at best to be Virginia's first honoree since Ralph Sampson won consecutive Wooden Awards and three straight Naismith trophies in the early 1980s. "Sleeper" is a distant cousin of long shot in sports vernacular, so Perrantes qualifies for both lists.

And the same reasons for him warranting consideration apply: He's set to be the veteran leader of a Cavaliers team that is fully invested in head coach Tony Bennett's system and knows every inch of the playbook after being a full-time starter since early in his freshman season.

What's changed for Perrantes since 2013-14, though, is an increased willingness to shoot and score. He attempted 4.3 shots per game as a freshman and took 8.0 per night last season, hitting 78 three-pointers in 2015-16. His 48.8 percent accuracy would have put him second nationally if he had enough attempts to qualify, and if this trend continues, he'll be among the long-distance leaders in 2016-17.

Alec Peters, Valparaiso

Greg Bartram-USA TODAY Sports

Year: Senior

Position: Forward

One of the last players to withdraw from the 2016 NBA draft, Alec Peters decided to return to Valparaiso even though he would be playing for a new head coach after Bryce Drew left for Vanderbilt. He'd already graduated, and thus could have transferred to a bigger program to increase his draft stock, but Peters instead chose loyalty and the Crusaders.

That should help Valpo vie for another Horizon League title and a shot at another NCAA tournament bid, though with many of his best teammates from last year graduating, this means more falling on his shoulders. Challenge accepted.

"I need to be unstoppable in all three levels of the game," Peters told NWI.com's Paul Oren.

That's coming from a 6'9” guy who averaged 18.4 points and 8.4 rebounds, shot 50.5 percent overall and 44.0 percent from outside while making 91 three-pointers.

Rodney Purvis, Connecticut

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Year: Senior

Position: Guard

Rodney Purvis transferred from North Carolina State after one season because he wanted to "make a fresh start," which in college sports is often code for desiring a bigger role. He averaged 25.6 minutes and 7.1 shots per game in 2012-13, and in his first two years with Connecticut he averaged 45.0 percent more shots in 12.5 percent more playing time.

All of Purvis' numbers figure to go up in his senior year, with three of the other four Huskies who averaged 12 points per game moving on.

Though he plays off the ball—and UConn will have several capable point guards on the roster in 2016-17—it would help the 6'4” Purvis' award chances if he could add some assists to his numbers. The same goes for rebounding, as he's averaged 2.6 boards per game for his career and only had five or more boards in six games last year.

Ivan Rabb, California

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

Year: Sophomore

Position: Forward

Ivan Rabb was the No. 7 prospect in the 2015 recruiting class, and by coming back to school for his sophomore year, he's the highest-rated player not to go one-and-done after last season. In doing so, Rabb risks hurting his draft stock if he regresses, but because of the situation he's returning to he'll have every opportunity to thrive.

California lost its top three scorers from last season, one each to the NBA draft, graduation and transfer. Rabb was the No. 4 option on offense, averaging 12.5 points along with a team-best 8.5 rebounds per game, but his 61.5 percent shooting rate, 124.8 offensive rating and 8.7 box plus/minus were tops on the Golden Bears.

Rabb's overall numbers figure to rise immensely, but it will be up to him not to trade that production for a drop in efficiency for the sake of Cal and his award prospects.

Dennis Smith, North Carolina State

247Sports

Year: Freshman

Position: Guard

Like Harry Giles, Dennis Smith is a highly rated prospect who is coming off a major injury, and whether he can return to his old form will have a large bearing on his shot at the Naismith or Wooden Awards. But where the two players differ, despite Giles being a big man and Smith being only 6'2”, is that Giles is part of a Duke team that's considered a top national title contender.

NC State's ceiling isn't that high, but it could be depending on how close to 100 percent Smith is this season.

Smith was hurt last summer, which prompted him to graduate early from high school and enroll at NC State in January. This enabled him to rehab with college trainers and become acclimated with head coach Mark Gottfried's system, giving him a jump on most freshmen.

He's taking the spot previously held by Cat Barber, who ranked sixth in the country in scoring last year. The opportunity to score will be there for Smith.

Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Year: Junior

Position: Guard

Transfers have become so prevalent in college basketball that it's only a matter of time until one is going to end up becoming the best player in the country at his second school. Can Nigel Williams-Goss be the pioneer in this area?

His performance in two seasons at Washington from 2013-15 serves as a good foundation to build on, averaging 14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. That was on Huskies teams that failed to make the NCAA tournament, but with Gonzaga the Big Dance has become an annual occurrence, with 18 consecutive appearances.

Williams-Goss becomes eligible as the Bulldogs lose leading scorers Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer, who last year combined for 38.0 points, 18.1 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game.

All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information from 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.