The Open 2016: Biggest Questions Entering Moving Day

In a day of shifting storylines and rapidly changing conditions at the Open Championship, we were presented with one constant narrative: Henrik Stenson played a heckuva second round.

The Swede fired a six-under 65 to move to within a stroke of Phil Mickelson’s 10-under-par lead. Lefty, for his part, played another quality round of golf, getting around Royal Troon in two-under fashion.

As the afternoon wore on and players battled gusting winds and sideways rain—followed by periods of calm, and then gales and spitting again—the cut fell from two over, to three over, to four over, with stars like Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose making it to the weekend as others fell outside the line.

Really, nobody from the afternoon wave had a prayer of biting into Phil Mickelson’s lead. And only Henrik Stenson, Charl Schwartzel and Andrew Johnston made any progress in the morning flight.

We’ll be watching whether the field can do better in chasing down the five-time major champion on moving day, certainly. For five more things to keep an eye on, click through.

What Does Mother Nature Have in Store?

Ben Curtis/Associated Press

Ah, the eternal query at the Open.

Thursday brought uncharacteristically benign scoring conditions. Mid-60s. Winds around 10 miles per hour. No rain. No substantial gusts.

It doesn’t get much easier than that at an Open venue, and scoring reflected this reality: Phil Mickelson lipped out a putt for an eight-under round of 63 to tie the all-time scoring record in a round at a major, and the field ate up a very gettable Troon.

The second round saw the winds pick up to the 20-to-30 mph range, with gusts increasing beyond that with periods of blowing rain early. Players tackled moister, softer Royal Troon later in the day, with many struggling to adjust to the slower green speeds before conditions totally deteriorated.

What will the weekend bring, and what will the effect of the elements be on scoring? Per The Weather Channel, latest reports suggest a 30 percent chance of rain Saturday with temperatures hovering around 60 degrees and winds in the 15 mph range. In other words, about as good as players can hope for from a scoring standpoint.

Of course, this is the Open Championship on the coast of Scotland, and Mother Nature could change what’s on the menu quickly and without warning.

Can Phil Mickelson Keep It Up?

Peter Morrison/Associated Press

Amid mild conditions at Royal Troon, Phil Mickelson was firing on all cylinders, shooting an opening-round 63.

He backed up his first-round brilliance with a second-round, two-under 69 amid periods of significant rain that leaves him a stroke clear of Henrik Stenson entering the weekend. He’s recorded just two bogeys through two rounds, is finding fairways and greens and flaunting his vaunted short game when he misses the putting surface.

The 46-year-old assessed his second-round performance:

"

I really enjoy the challenge that this weather and these elements provide. I thought it was a good round to back up the low round yesterday. I played kind of stress-free golf again. I made one or two bad swings that led to bogeys. But for the most part I kept the ball in play and played kind of stress-free golf.

"

Mickelson finished third the last time the Open was contested at Troon (2004) and broke through at Muirfield with a brilliant, final-round 66 to earn the Claret Jug in 2013. So from a general Open experience and specific Open venue standpoint, Mickelson looks poised heading into the weekend.

Now 46 years old, we don’t know what the future holds, but this could be Mickelson’s best chance to capture a sixth major title and the second Open of his superb career.  

Can he do it? His Saturday showing will go a long way toward answering that question.

Will the Untested Hold Their Nerves?

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Positioning for the third round, of course, is the critical thing on Saturday of any golf tournament. And to state another obvious fact: Some on the first page of the leaderboard will rise, and others will fall.

Turning our attention to the golfers within striking distance of Phil Mickelson’s 10-under lead, we see names like Stenson (-9), Keegan Bradley (-7), Zach Johnson (-5), Sergio Garcia (-4) and Schwartzel (-4). The aforementioned have all either won or contended repeatedly in major championships.

We also see the likes of Soren Kjeldsen (-7), Andrew “Beef” Johnston (-4), Tony Finau (-4) and Rafael Cabrera Bello (-3), all of whom are untested.

Will the contenders be able to keep it together as the pressure ratchets up? Outside of what happens at the very top of the leaderboard, the Saturday performances of the players named above ought to paint a clear picture of who could be hoisting the Claret Jug on Sunday.

Can a Member of the Big 3 Get into Position?

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Few prognosticators likely assumed we’d be asking, "Does anyone in golf’s Big Three have a shot entering the weekend?" We can add Dustin Johnson, who entered the Open on the strength of two wins, to the collective and extend that question even further.

And yet, here we are, with Jason Day, Spieth and Rory McIlroy getting the raw end of the Friday draw.

Here’s how golf’s top four stand as moving day dawns.

• Rory McIlroy (-2)
• Dustin Johnson (-2)
• Jason Day (+1)
• Jordan Spieth (+4)

Is there a chance for the quartet? Certainly McIlroy and Johnson, at two under, have the best chances. All will feel they need to get going in a hurry. And indeed they do, with none of the top four in the Official World Golf Ranking better than eight shots off Mickelson’s pace.

Can Zach Johnson Repeat?

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Although he bogeyed the 18th hole in both of his rounds thus far to wrap up stumbling back nines, defending champion Zach Johnson is right in the mix at five-under par heading into the weekend. He’ll hit his opening tee shot five strokes behind Mickelson with just three golfers—Stenson, Kjeldsen and Bradley—separating him from the top spot.

The Iowan told reporters after his round that he feels his best golf is in front of him, adding, "I still feel confident in the sense that I'm doing the right things."

The last time a golfer repeated at the Open Championship: Padraig Harrington in 2007 and 2008, which, interestingly, followed Tiger Woods' back-to-back wins in 2005 and 2006.

Johnson, who has made 11 birdies through two days at Royal Troon, will know he needs a few tweeters early, as he can’t expect Mickelson to falter.