Bleacher Report's Full 2016 Midseason MLB Awards

The All-Star break is over. It's back to the grind now, and chances are the second half of the 2016 Major League Baseball season will look a lot different from the first half.

That makes this a good time to check in on the guys to beat in the awards races.

Ahead are Bleacher Report's midseason picks for the five big awards in the American and National League: Comeback Player of the Year, Manager of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and Most Valuable Player. We like to think we chose our picks with a balance of statistical analysis and logic (i.e. consideration of all relevant trends, history, performances, etc.), but you're welcome to challenge us on either front.

At any rate, let's get to it.

AL Comeback Player of the Year: Ian Desmond, Texas Rangers

Associated Press

Ian Desmond famously rejected a $100 million contract offer from the Washington Nationals before the 2014 season. The baseball gods responded by turning him into MLB's very own Job. He went on to have one of his worst seasons in 2015, and the free-agent market forced him to settle for a one-year deal worth $8 million this February.

Desmond was living a nightmare for a good stretch. But in 2016, he is living the dream.

For their $8 million, the Texas Rangers are getting the best season of Desmond's career. He rode a .322 average and .899 OPS to his second All-Star selection. He also clubbed 15 home runs and stole 15 bases. He did all this after he hit just .233 with a .674 OPS with 19 homers and 13 steals last year.

The 30-year-old has also had no problem with his transition from shortstop to the outfield. His defensive metrics are strong. As August Fagerstrom highlighted at FanGraphs, much of that is due to his superb ability to police baserunners.

Meanwhile in Seattle, we can't ignore Robinson Cano's rebirth. After a down year in 2015, the veteran second baseman is hitting .313 with 21 home runs.

But Cano at least remained a quality hitter with a .287 average in 2015. Desmond's turnaround is more extreme, as he's gone from a major liability to one of the AL's best players. Per FanGraphs' calculations, only Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson have accumulated more wins above replacement.

Runner-Up: Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners

NL Comeback Player of the Year: Wil Myers, San Diego Padres

Associated Press

Ian Desmond had it rough for a year-and-a-half, but Wil Myers had it rough for two years. After winning the American League Rookie of the Year in 2013, he battled injuries (147 total games) and poor production (.675 OPS) over the next two seasons.

Coming into 2016, nobody had any idea what the San Diego Padres would get out of Myers at the plate, much less how he would handle his transition to being a full-time first baseman. It turns out they've gotten his all and then some. 

Myers played in 87 games in the first half, hitting .286 with an .873 OPS, 19 homers and 15 stolen bases. He's looked like a completely different hitter, knocking the ball with authority to all fields.

"He's had that opposite-field power all year," said Padres manager Andy Green in June, per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. "But now he's got the ability to cover all pitches at this point in time. He looks great."

Myers has also dazzled at first base, where he boasts excellent defensive metrics. Whether it can last is another conversation, but right now FanGraphs WAR makes a case for him as baseball's best first baseman.

Marcell Ozuna also deserves some props. His lost year in 2015 included a demotion to the minors, but he's returned to hit .307 with an .892 OPS and 17 homers in 2016.

Runner-Up: Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins

AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles

Associated Press

How do you pick winners for the Manager of the Year? As Michael Baumann of The Ringer put it, it usually means sticking to the “team that most overachieves preseason expectations” narrative.

In the American League, that's Buck Showalter's Baltimore Orioles.

The O's were widely projected/expected to be an afterthought in the AL East after making few substantial upgrades to a team that went 81-81 in 2015. Instead, they're in first place at 51-36.

Terry Francona and Jeff Banister have also done fine jobs in Cleveland and Texas, respectively. But neither has had to deal with the ball and chain around Showalter's ankle. His starting pitching has been awful, posting a 5.15 ERA and logging an MLB-low 470 innings.

The Orioles are winning despite that thanks, in part, to their powerful offense. With 137 dingers at the break, they have a shot at the 1997 Seattle Mariners' single-season record of 264. For this, Showalter bears little responsibility.

However, his fingerprints are all over Baltimore's other big strength: the bullpen. Its 3.12 ERA is second in the AL. Considering the O's don't have a reliable left-handed setup man or a healthy Darren O'Day (hamstring), that probably wouldn't be possible without Showalter's influence. This is another example of his legendary ability to run a bullpen.

It's therefore safe to say the O's wouldn't be where they are without their skipper. Let's give the guy some credit. Also, an award.

Runner-Up: Terry Francona, Cleveland Indians

NL Manager of the Year: Bruce Bochy, San Francisco Giants

Associated Press

If we stick with the “team that most overachieves preseason expectations” narrative for the NL Manager of the Year, we'd end up with...who? Dusty Baker? Don Mattingly?

Either would be underwhelming. That is why Bruce Bochy is in the headline.

At 57-33, Bochy's San Francisco Giants are not only the best team in the NL West but the best club in all of MLB. That's sort of amazing. Among other things, he's had to deal with:

• A starting rotation with a 4.48 ERA outside of Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto
• A lineup that's dealt with injuries to Hunter Pence, Joe Panik, Matt Duffy and Angel Pagan
• A bullpen without a dominant reliever

The Giants have survived partially because they've gotten boosts from unlikely sources such as Jarrett Parker and Conor Gillaspie. That's becoming a Giants tradition, and the easy thing to chalk it up to is the supportive clubhouse atmosphere that Bochy cultivates year after year.

The Giants have also survived because Bochy may be the one guy in baseball who handles a bullpen as well as Buck Showalter. With a 3.94 ERA, the club's pen has been better than the sum of its parts. Bochy's willingness to play the matchups game is a part of that. As R.J. Anderson wrote at CBS Sports, he takes pitching changes "to an extreme."

All told, this is just another year of Bochy doing his thing. It also doesn't hurt that it's an even year.

Runner-Up: Don Mattingly, Miami Marlins

AL Rookie of the Year: Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers

Associated Press

The lead for this award has changed hands a few times this year. But right now, Michael Fulmer has a firm grip on it. 

The Detroit Tigers right-hander entered the year as a consensus top-100 prospect, climbing as high as No. 47 in Baseball America's top 100. Still, nobody counted him among the Lucas Giolitos and Julio Uriases of the world.

You'd never know it from looking at how Fulmer has pitched. In 13 starts, the 23-year-old has dominated to the tune of a 2.11 ERA in 76.2 innings. He's struck out 8.5 batters per nine innings.

Ben Badler of Baseball America warned us that Fulmer would show a plus fastball and slider. Sure enough, he's averaged 95 mph with his heater and, according to Brooks Baseball, has held hitters to a .117 average with his slider.

But the real star of the Fulmer show has been his changeup, which is holding hitters to a .081 average. This is unexpected, as it was supposed to be the weak link in his arsenal. 

“It just plays better up here than it does in the minor leagues," Fulmer said, according to George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press. "I just grip it and throw it. I don’t try to do too much with it.”

With a .314 average and .965 OPS, Cleveland's Tyler Naquin is worth keeping an eye on as well. His defensive metrics are too ugly to overlook, though, so keep your attention on Fulmer.

Runner-Up: Tyler Naquin, Cleveland Indians

NL Rookie of the Year: Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Every baseball season has a chosen one among the top prospects. Sometimes, said chosen one disappoints. Other times, guys like Corey Seager happen.

Seager entered 2016 as everyone's favorite prospect, taking the No. 1 spot at Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com and ESPN.com. The 22-year-old had trouble living up to that initially, as his first April with the Los Angeles Dodgers was fraught with peril.

But Seager has been on fire since, lifting his average to .297 and his OPS to .879. He's also slugged 17 home runs. Those are especially good numbers for a shortstop who has to play half his games at Dodger Stadium. As for how he's getting it done, it's not complicated. Among shortstops, only fellow rookie Trevor Story has a higher hard-hit percentage than Seager.

Seager has also played well in the field, where the metrics rate his defense as somewhere between "very good" and "not bad." And no matter what he's doing, he's keeping a good head on his shoulders.

“There are just not that many people like him at that age,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, per Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. “To handle expectations that people have for him and to eliminate the noise and just play baseball, it takes a special person.”

With a .315 average and .915 OPS, Aledmys Diaz is mounting a worthy challenge to Seager's NL Rookie of the Year case. It's just not quite worthy enough.

Runner-Up: Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals

AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Associated Press

The choice for the midseason AL Cy Young is so tough that we might as well be picking our favorite Beatle.

But since this is my list, allow me to explain why Corey Kluber is my John Lennon.

It's not because of his 3.61 ERA. That's not even in the top 10 among qualified AL starters. It's well behind fellow Cleveland right-hander Danny Salazar's 2.75 ERA. Salazar also has the better strikeout rate, punching out 10.15 batters per nine innings.

But as any baseball nerd will tell you, ERA isn't a perfect picture of pitching ability. In this case, it seems to be underrating the one they call "Klubot."

With an even nine strikeouts per nine innings, Kluber is one of the AL's 10 best strikeout artists. With 1.99 walks per nine innings, he's also one of the AL's 10 best command artists. He's also been tough to square up when he's been put in play, ranking in the top 10 in soft-hit and hard-hit rate.

With all this in mind, the metrics provide a better picture of Kluber's season. Fielding independent pitching rates him as the AL's top pitcher (2.95). So does Baseball Prospectus' more comprehensive deserved run average (2.57).

By the way, Kluber has done all this in 122 innings. Only Chris Sale and David Price have him beat there.

Runner-Up: Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Associated Press

And now for the easiest selection on this list: Clayton Kershaw is the midseason NL Cy Young winner.

OK, so, the Dodgers left-hander is on the disabled list with a bad back. That hurts, literally and figuratively. But otherwise, it's hard to take anything away from Kershaw's 2016 season.

He leads all qualified starters with a 1.79 ERA, and this is a case where ERA is telling the truth. With 145 strikeouts and only nine walks in his 16 starts, he's rocking a ratio of 16.11 strikeouts to one walk, which is on track to be the best ever recorded.

This is the work of a guy who's mastered his craft.

"It’s just a matter of working at it and getting more consistent and repeating the same mechanics over and over again, and having the mindset that you aren’t going to walk guys," Kershaw told Doug Padilla of ESPN.com. "You’re going to get beat with hits, and you’re not going to worry about that."

When batters have put the ball in play against Kershaw, one thing it hasn't done is go over the fence. With a rate of 0.45 home runs per nine innings, his home run rate ranks behind only Johnny Cueto's.

The only metric that isn't sold on Kershaw as the most dominant pitcher in MLB is DRA, which has him tied with Jose Fernandez for the top spot. But even if those two are more equal than we know, Kershaw's workload advantage (121.0 innings to 107.1 innings) gives him the edge.

Runner-Up: Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

AL Most Valuable Player: Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays

Associated Press

We've reached the MVP portion of this list. Guess we better look at wins above replacement.

Whether we consult Baseball-Reference.com or FanGraphs, here's how WAR ranks American League players in terms of all-around value:

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
2. Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays
3. [A fair amount of space]
4. Everyone else

It isn't close. Trout and Donaldson have both been worth about 5.5 wins, while other contenders top out around 4.5. Although WAR isn't the be-all, end-all statistic for determining MVPs, this is a situation where it's hard to deny it's a two-horse race in the AL.

Which horse should be crowned the winner is a tough call. Adjusted offensive metrics such as OPS+ and wRC+ rate Trout and Donaldson as equal hitters. Trout has been the better baserunner, but Donaldson has arguably been the better defender.

Based on their abilities, it's a wash.

And so, it's to the context we must go. Trout's Angels (37-52) are far out of the AL West race, while Donaldson's Blue Jays (51-40) are in the thick of the AL East race. That's not a deal-maker for Donaldson in and of itself, but the degree to which he's helped the cause is significant. He's been the AL's best hitter with runners in scoring position, as well as one of the best in high-leverage situations.

As odd as it feels to pass over Trout, that sounds like an MVP to me.

Runner-Up: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

NL Most Valuable Player: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Associated Press

We go from an apparent two-horse race for the AL MVP to an apparent three-horse race for the NL MVP. According to WAR from Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, the value kings of the Senior Circuit are Clayton Kershaw, Kris Bryant and Madison Bumgarner.

The conventional wisdom police just pulled me over and gave me a talking-to about how the MVP should go to everyday players. That's a point for Bryant. With a .286 average, .962 OPS and an NL-high 25 home runs, the Chicago Cubs' 24-year-old third baseman is indeed having a season worthy of MVP consideration.

But would Chicago still be good without Bryant? Considering he was one of seven Cubs All-Stars, probably. In light of their MLB-best record, we can say the same of Bumgarner and the Giants.

Kershaw and the Dodgers? Not as much. They're 14-2 when he starts and 37-38 when anyone else does.

Neither figure seems accidental. We just went over how great Kershaw has been when he's been healthy this season. And when he's not on the mound, the Dodgers are in the hands of a starting rotation with a 4.38 ERA outside of him and an offense that ranks ninth in the National League in runs.

Besides, nobody should sound surprised by the idea of Kershaw as the NL MVP. He has done it before.

Runner-Up: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.