Will Roger Federer Ever Get a Better Shot at 18th Grand Slam After Wimbledon?
Roger Federer is as forward-thinking an athlete as there comes, but he'll need extra time to regroup after his stinging semifinal loss to Milos Raonic at Wimbledon.
The Swiss legend may look back on it as one of the greatest missed opportunities of his career.
Since winning Wimbledon four years ago, Federer's been chasing an 18th Grand Slam title to no avail. That drought represents the longest stretch of his illustrious career without a major, and it's becoming increasingly more likely that he might not ever reach the summit again.
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Nearing his 35th birthday, Federer is in the twilight of his playing days. That he's still competing for championships at this late stage is a remarkable testament to his longevity, though Father Time beckons even for someone as seemingly ageless as him.
With the clock ticking, pressure continues to amplify for Federer at every Grand Slam event. How many more chances does he realistically have left to win another? Maybe a few? The window isn't shut, but it seems slightly less ajar after his recent trip to the All England Club.
A golden scenario presented itself to Federer. And he couldn't capitalize.
There's always talk about how Federer needs the draw to shape up perfectly for him to win another major. Well, it did just that at Wimbledon. There'd be no Rafael Nadal, who was at home rehabbing a wrist injury. Novak Djokovic, the man responsible for beating him in the 2014 and 2015 finals, looked emotionally exhausted and was shown the door in the third round.
His two greatest rivals were on the sidelines. Federer had to be doing cartwheels inside.
He coasted through the first four rounds, showing few signs of any residual effects from the knee and back injuries that derailed him throughout the spring. Moving spryly and serving ever so efficiently, Federer showed his resolve with a thrilling two-sets-to-love comeback against Marin Cilic in the quarterfinals.
As he survived that grueling test, it felt like the stars were aligning for Federer to win the title. He had completed one of the most stirring comebacks of his career, giving himself new life and renewed hope.
Destiny, it turns out, wasn't on his side. It's tough to say how much the Cilic match took out of him physically, but in crucial situations while facing Raonic, Federer lacked the necessary sharpness.
Entering that blockbuster showdown with Raonic, he brought a pristine 10-0 record in Wimbledon semifinals to the table, a mark that included a beatdown of Raonic two years prior. He had to love his chances on paper.
From the start, it became clear Federer would have his hands full.
A double fault gave Raonic an early break, and he held for the first set, putting Federer in an early deficit. That's all it took—one mistake—to put his big-serving opponent out front.
Federer raised his level from there, nabbing a tiebreak and later securing his only break of the match to claim the second and third sets. The finish line came into view.
Breathing a little easier with a lead in hand, Federer had Raonic on the ropes, securing multiple break points (and de facto match points) in the fourth set. The Canadian calmly washed them all away with big serves, wasted moments Federer may rue for a long while.
Serving at 5-6, Federer raced ahead to a 40-0 lead. He was so close to a tiebreak he could taste it. But he blinked, uncharacteristically serving two double faults to hand Raonic the set.
Visibly frustrated, Federer let the match slip away in the decider. The last nail in the coffin came in the fourth game when he crumpled to the turf after losing his balance. Calling for the trainer and receiving brief treatment, Federer hit another costly double fault. Raonic broke that game and served it out for a 6-3, 6-7 (3), 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 win.
"Strange loss for Federer. He lost 3 service games from 30-0, 40-0, and 40-30. Played pretty flawlessly in other 50 games. 14 unforced errors
— Carl Bialik (@CarlBialik) July 8, 2016"
That tweet encapsulates what a confounding defeat it was for Federer. He didn't play poorly at all, just the opposite. In a match ultimately decided by a handful of points, Federer squandered several of the biggest ones—that's the delicate line between jubilation and heartbreak.
“Something went wrong," Federer said in his press conference. "I don't know—I can't believe I served a double fault twice. Unexplainable for me really. Very sad about that, and angry with myself because never should I allow him to get out of that set that easily."
Rattled by his opponent’s tenacity, Federer can only sit back and wonder what could have been. In many ways, that match is emblematic of his struggles in recent years. Federer does well enough to consistently reach these stages at Grand Slam, yet he lacks that extra gear when he most needs it.
“This one clearly hurts because I felt I could have had it,” Federer told the Associated Press (h/t Tennis.com). “So close. It was really so, so close. It clearly hurts.”
Maintaining his form over the course of a two-week event becomes an even tougher challenge as he ages, especially with the supremely fit (and younger) Djokovic and Andy Murray always in his path. They’re each 29 and won’t be going away any time soon.
Having Djokovic removed from the equation cleared a monumental hurdle for Federer, a stroke of good fortune he might not ever see again considering the world No. 1’s dominance.
Murray played sizzling tennis to claim the throne, but Federer has beaten him in their last five meetings, routing the Scot in last year’s semifinals. He would’ve taken the court brimming with confidence. Instead, he’ll have to ask himself “what if?”
Led by Raonic, a new generation of contenders is rising and further complicates things for Federer. Of his seven losses this season, five have come to players 25 years old or younger: two against Raonic, another pair to Dominic Thiem and the other courtesy of Alexander Zverev. Each of those men beat Federer on grass, his surface of choice.
Contending not only with the old guard but also this group of hungry youth gives Federer a small margin for error. This year’s Wimbledon showed that his best won’t be good enough—he’ll need a special effort if he’s to win one more major.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com, unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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