British Open Picks 2016: Dark-Horse Candidates to Win
Links golf fans, rejoice! British Open week is here. And if you're looking to wager some coin on the action from Royal Troon Golf Club in Scotland, we have you covered.
Depending on your sportsbook of choice, there are around 25 golfers at odds of 60-1 or better. So for our purposes, we'll look at everyone 60-1 and higher as a dark horse, with some golfers in this rundown listed as high as 200-1.
Mostly, our dark-horse players are either surging at the moment or are steady-handed veterans playing respectable golf who aren't likely to shoot themselves out of the competition.
With that said, here are seven dark-horse candidates for your punting consideration.
Webb Simpson (200-1)
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Last We Saw Webb Simpson: Finished sixth at the Quicken Loans National
2015 British Open Finish: T40
Best British Open Finish: T16 (2011)
Played Troon in 1999, 2004? No, no
While he missed the cut with a disappointing 11-over showing for two rounds at the U.S. Open, Webb Simpson has played quality golf in three of his last four starts, including a sixth-place finish at the Quicken Loans National in his most recent effort.
He's had plenty of time to work on his game, having not teed it up in two weeks. From the looks of things on Twitter, he's been working out hard at home with trainer Ben Shear, so he should be all systems go at Troon.
From a statistical standpoint, Simpson is 15th on the PGA Tour in strokes gained from tee to green and 12th in strokes gained approaching the green.
While Simpson has tallied only one performance of any quality in four British Opens, he's a past major winner with solid recent results. Assuming he's well-prepared for Royal Troon, Simpson is the best you can get at 200-1.
Francesco Molinari (125-1)
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Last We Saw Francesco Molinari: Finished second at the French Open
2015 British Open Finish: T40
Best British Open Finish: T9 (2013)
Played Troon in 1999, 2004? No, no
Francesco Molinari arrives at Royal Troon after two high-quality finishes: tied for eighth at the Quicken Loans National and second at the French Open.
He's made four straight cuts at the British Open and had a top-10 finish in 2013, so the Italian has displayed a steady hand at the courses of the Open rota.
Luke Donald (125-1)
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Last We Saw Luke Donald: T45 at the Scottish Open
2015 British Open Finish: T12
Best British Open Finish: T5 (2009, 2012)
Played Troon in 1999, 2004? Cut, cut
If you're looking for a more veteran player in the same price range as Molinari, consider Luke Donald, who has twice contended in past British Opens. Further, the Englishman did good work at St. Andrews last year.
His recent form hasn't been brilliant, with a pair of mediocre finishes at the French Open (T45) and Scottish Open. However, he's had two turns around Troon (although they didn't come to much) and isn't likely to shoot himself out of the tournament or lose too many tee shots into the course's lengthy rough.
At 125-1, Donald, veteran of 15 British Opens, is worth a punt.
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Danny Lee (100-1)
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Last We Saw Danny Lee: T3 at the Scottish Open
2015 British Open Finish: Cut
Best British Open Finish: Cut (2015)
Played Troon in 1999, 2004? No, no
Danny Lee may not have been on your wagering radar prior to his impressive showing at the Scottish Open, where he finished tied for third, two strokes behind Alex Noren. But if you're looking for a hot hand who just played well at a links-style venue, Lee, at 100-1, is a good bet.
This isn't to say he has a respectable British Open history. He doesn't, having missed the cut in his one attempt. And prior to the strong Scottish showing, he hadn't cracked the top 50 in his three most recent starts.
It's worth noting that prior to his Greenbrier Classic win last year, Lee had missed two cuts and then finished tied for 25th at the Travelers Championship. So, there's a precedent for poor-play-good-play wins from Mr. Lee in quick succession.
Ernie Els (100-1)
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Last We Saw Ernie Els: Finished fifth at the Quicken Loans National
2015 British Open Finish: T65
Best British Open Finish: 1 (2012)
Played Troon in 1999, 2004? T24, 2
A surprise winner at Royal Lytham in 2012, Ernie Els has been putting brilliantly since switching putters following an abysmal showing on the greens at Augusta National.
Putting at a high level, Els righted the ship following a series of missed cuts, finishing fifth and firing sub-70 rounds three times at difficult Congressional.
While he hasn't been particularly good from tee to green this season, the Big Easy is returning to a venue where he's tallied a pair of impressive showings (especially in 2004). If he can keep the ball in the fairway, a lack of precision into the course's large greens shouldn't doom him given the quality of his work with the flatstick.
We'll assume that Els, like other golfers on this list who have taken a couple of weeks off ahead of the tournament, enters the competition rested and with a more finely honed swing.
Graeme McDowell (66-1)
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Last We Saw Graeme McDowell: T10 at the Scottish Open
2015 British Open Finish: T49
Best British Open Finish: T5, 2012
Played Troon in 1999, 2004? No, cut
GMac tied for 10th at the Scottish Open following a missed cut at the French Open. While he didn't make it to the weekend at Troon in 2004, he's had plenty of experience at British Open venues and did good work on more than one occasion.
At eighth on tour in driving accuracy, McDowell shouldn't be troubled by the long grass. As a past winner of the U.S. Open, he has a proven ability to hang around the leaderboard and grind it out.
We know McDowell has put in extra practice time at Troon, as he tweeted video from the course last week, so he'll be well-prepared. Coupled with the strong showing in Scotland, that has to put McDowell on your punting radar.
Andy Sullivan (66-1)
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Last We Saw Andy Sullivan: T6 at the Scottish Open
2015 British Open Finish: T30
Best British Open Finish: T30 (2015)
Played Troon in 1999, 2004? No, no
If Andy Sullivan had more British Open experience with his recent quality play, he'd be listed at even narrower odds.
The Englishman will tee it up at Troon on the heels of two top-10 finishes. A tied-for-23rd finish at the U.S. Open three starts ago also suggests Sullivan has things in order and is ready to perform in major competitions.
Like many of the golfers on this list, Sullivan hasn't been statistically brilliant, but he finds fairways (at a 64.54 percent clip) and is peaking at the right time.
If you're looking to back a longer-odds Brit to take the British Open, Sullivan could be your man.
All statistics via PGATour.com or EuropeanTour.com. All odds via Odds Shark.
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