Every MLB Contender's Most Likely Trade-Deadline Deal
Welcome to MLB's summer silly season, when trade talk takes to the wind like hot-dog wrappers in a hurricane.
Over the next few weeks leading up to the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, you'll read and hear countless rumors, whispers, unconfirmed reports and statements from people familiar with a team's thinking.
A lot will shift as July unfolds. Injuries, hot streaks and cold spells will upend races, change clubs' calculuses and sort the buyers from the sellers once and for all.
Based on what we know now, however, here's a look at each contender's most likely deadline deal. By that, we mean a plausible trade that fits the needs of the team in question and that it has the chips to pull off. If it's tied to some credible chatter, all the better.
Almost assuredly, most of these trades won't happen, because not even the love child of Nostradamus and Miss Cleo can see every swap coming. But it's a fine starting point for educated speculation and discussion.
For our purposes, we're labeling 18 teams contenders, in that all are above .500 at the break and within striking distance of a postseason berth. The New York Yankees, who sit on the bubble at 44-44, fell into the non-contender column, though that could easily change.
We'll begin with the contender with the worst record and work our way up from there. Tap the clay off your cleats and dig in when ready.
Seattle Mariners: Joe Smith
1 of 18
The Seattle Mariners sit in third place in the American League West at 45-44, 8.5 games out of first and five games off the wild-card pace.
Still, they don't have any glaring weaknesses, as they rank fourth in the AL in team ERA (3.95) and sixth in runs scored (435).
One area where the M's could seek an upgrade is in late-inning relief. Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball linked Seattle to Huston Street and Joe Smith of the Los Angeles Angels and noted that Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto "especially loves Smith."
The right-handed sidearmer isn't a game-changer, as he sports a 4.80 ERA through 30 innings. But he posted a 1.81 ERA and saved 15 games as recently as 2014 for the Halos, when Dipoto was the GM in Anaheim.
Smith likely wouldn't cost a huge prospect haul, and he could spell or supplant setup man Joaquin Benoit, who coughed up eight earned runs in 10 June appearances.
Chicago White Sox: A.J. Pierzynski
2 of 18
OK, Chicago White Sox fans, you're groaning. A.J. Pierzynski, a 39-year-old backup catcher, isn't exactly the cavalry you were hoping for.
It's possible the 45-43 White Sox—who are seven games out in the AL Central and 4.5 out in the wild-card race—could land a bigger bat. George A. King III of the New York Post speculated they could be in on Carlos Beltran as an upgrade at designated hitter if the Yankees decide to shop him.
Pierzynski, though, makes sense as a low-risk roll of the dice for nostalgia as much as anything. The veteran backstop and two-time All-Star spent eight seasons on the South Side and won a ring with the Sox in 2005.
The woeful Atlanta Braves figure to be sellers and would surely ask for a pittance in return. While Pierzynski's hitting just .205 with a .477 OPS, he's familiar with Chicago's top arms, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana.
Heck, in June, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune floated Pierzynski as a possible replacement for manager Robin Ventura.
Maybe a deadline deal could be the first step in that process.
Kansas City Royals: Josh Reddick
3 of 18
The Kansas City Royals were serious players at the deadline last year, acquiring right-hander Johnny Cueto and super-utlilityman Ben Zobrist to aid in their championship quest.
The Royals need rotation help again, and they could well dip into the shallow starting-pitcher trade pool. But with third baseman Mike Moustakas out for the season with an ACL injury and a lineup that's scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball, the defending champs could use an offensive boost as well.
The Oakland Athletics' Josh Reddick is still finding his groove after missing time with a fractured thumb, but his .795 OPS would easily be the highest among the Royals' current regular outfielders.
While he's set to hit the market this winter, the Royals showed a willingness to pay for rentals with Cueto and Zobrist, both of whom walked after bathing in champagne last season.
Reddick won't come for free, but with other high-profile right fielders—including the Cincinnati Reds' Jay Bruce and Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez—possibly on the block, the price may not be stratospheric. The Royals, as Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter noted in his most recent farm system rankings, "have an abundance of quality arms in the lower levels of their system."
On July 9, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported that "Reddick is drawing plenty of trade interest." Kansas City, Slusser added, is "following him closely."
.png?w=256)
Detroit Tigers: Jeremy Hellickson
4 of 18
The Detroit Tigers have begun to rebuild what was recently the most barren farm system in baseball, and they're not going to empty it for a blockbuster deadline addition, as general manager Al Avila explained in June.
"This is the team we are counting on to win," Avila said, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. "If we have to make a minor move here or there, we will look into it at that point."
Whether Jeremy Hellickson constitutes a minor move is open to debate.
The 29-year-old Philadelphia Phillies right-hander, who owns a 3.92 ERA and 4.26 FIP through 18 starts, is no one's idea of an ace. But with few premium arms available, he'll surely attract suitors if the Phils opt to move him.
Still, Detroit could undeniably use help at the back end of a rotation that ranks No. 17 in baseball with a 4.60 ERA. With a case of expensive veterans, the 46-43 Tigers remain in win-now mode.
Plus, as Bless You Boys' Rob Rogacki pointed out, "The Tigers have long had a thing for pitchers who perform well against their club in game action, and Jeremy Hellickson fits that bill perfectly. He went seven strong innings with seven strikeouts against the Tigers in May and has limited their lineup to a 2.25 ERA and .638 OPS against in six career meetings."
To tweak a phrase: If you can't beat 'em, trade for 'em.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Daniel Hudson
5 of 18
At 46-43, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 1.5 games out in the wild-card race and within 7.5 games of the suddenly mortal Chicago Cubs in the National League Central.
General manager Neal Huntington stoked the trade-speculation flames by telling Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, "Our expectation is we are going to add. Our mindset is we are going to add and put ourselves, for the first time in the franchise history, in position to make the postseason four consecutive years."
The Bucs, though, are mostly set on offense and may not need to bolster the rotation after calling up top prospects Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow and with Gerrit Cole working his way back from the disabled list.
That leaves the bullpen. Pittsburgh's relief corps already ranks fifth in the NL with a 3.70 ERA and put together a run of 34.1 consecutive scoreless innings between June 24 and Independence Day.
Still, Pittsburgh could look to gild the lily with an additional arm, such as the Arizona Diamondbacks' Daniel Hudson, whose 3.81 FIP is more attractive than his 4.91 ERA and who probably won't cost a raft of prospects.
The Pirates could stand pat and ride the streak that saw them win nine of their last 11 games before the break. But after the D-backs dealt Brad Ziegler to the Boston Red Sox, Hudson could be poised to follow him out of town. He may be exactly the kind of low-risk, medium-reward addition Pittsburgh is looking for.
St. Louis Cardinals: Will Smith
6 of 18
The St. Louis Cardinals—who sit a half-game up on the Pirates and seven back of the Cubs at 46-42—have been "intrigued" by lefty reliever Andrew Miller in the past, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.
Miller, though, may not be made available at any price, and if he is, it'll be for a king's ransom.
If the Cards are searching for a southpaw bullpen arm, they could target the Milwaukee Brewers' Will Smith, who has returned from a leg injury to post a 2.12 ERA with 15 strikeouts in 17 innings.
The 27-year-old is under team control until 2020, meaning he'd be far more than a rental.
St. Louis should keep some prospects, including right-hander Alex Reyes, on its no-fly list. But dipping into an always fertile farm system to add a late-inning arm might be prudent, especially since Trevor Rosenthal is ceding save opportunities to Seung Hwan Oh and sports an unsightly 5.40 ERA.
Miami Marlins: Ervin Santana
7 of 18
At 47-41, the Miami Marlins are six games back in the NL East and in the wild-card money.
If the season ended today, in other words, the Fish would be swimming in postseason waters.
The offense is stocked with the likes of All-Star Marcell Ozuna and big-bashing Home Run Derby champ Giancarlo Stanton, and Miami acquired veteran reliever Fernando Rodney to shore up the bullpen.
It could still use a starter, however, to augment a top-heavy rotation that drops off after ace Jose Fernandez.
The Marlins have had "preliminary contact" with the Tampa Bay Rays about Jake Odorizzi, according to MLB Network's Jon Morosi. But they may not have the assets to land a pitcher of that caliber—particularly after dealing for Rodney—and that's assuming the Rays are selling.
Instead, Miami may have to aim for a reclamation project like the Minnesota Twins' Ervin Santana, whose 4.06 ERA and 2015 performance-enhancing-drug suspension should suppress his value.
And yet, as an unnamed assistant GM told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe on June 25, Santana is "the one guy out there who could be a sure thing in the middle of the rotation."
The 33-year-old is owed $13.5 million in each of the next two seasons, so there are financial considerations. But he flashed his upside by tossing a two-hit shutout with eight strikeouts against the A's in his final start before the break.
New York Mets: Danny Valencia
8 of 18
With Matt Harvey lost for the season to a shoulder operation, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz battling bone spurs in their elbows and Zack Wheeler still a ways off in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, you'd think the New York Mets would be in the market for pitching.
They could be, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
But the Mets' bigger issue is an offense that ranks No. 28 in baseball in runs scored. Last year, New York saved its season by acquiring slugging outfielder Yoenis Cespedes at the deadline, and the club could employ a similar strategy now.
Veteran David Wright's neck surgery created a hole at third base, which the Mets—who are tied for second in the NL East at 47-41—could plug with Oakland's Danny Valencia.
Valencia's bat has cooled a bit, but the 31-year-old journeyman still owns a .304 average and .854 OPS along with 12 home runs.
New York "reached out" to Oakland regarding Valencia in June, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. As Davidoff noted, A's executive Billy Beane "has a strong relationship with Mets general manager Sandy Alderson, who preceded Beane as the A's GM, as well as Alderson's special assistant, J.P. Ricciardi, who worked under Beane in Oakland."
Houston Astros: Fernando Abad
9 of 18
The Houston Astros' most significant addition could be prospect Alex Bregman, who fell a home run shy of the cycle in the All-Star Futures Game in San Diego and may arrive "as early as this weekend," as ESPN's Jim Bowden reported Tuesday.
On the trade front, the picture is less flashy.
After a sluggish start, the 'Stros are back in the mix at 48-41, 5.5 games off the pace in the AL West and two games out in the wild-card race.
Houston could seek a rotation piece, but it is also looking to add lefty relief. The Twins' Fernando Abad "may be the most available option," as Jen Mac Ramos of MLB Daily Dish noted.
Abad owns a 2.83 ERA with 26 strikeouts in 28.2 innings, and he would augment an overall solid bullpen that lacks a consistent southpaw option.
Bregman is obviously off limits, but the Astros can dip into a top-10 system to pull off any deal.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Matt Moore
10 of 18
Forget the rumblings that the Los Angeles Dodgers will supposedly dangle Yasiel Puig. It says here the mercurial Cuban outfielder will still be wearing Dodger blue come season's end.
Instead, look for Los Angeles to shop for starting pitching to buttress a rotation that has been rattled by injuries, including a herniated disc in uber-ace Clayton Kershaw's back.
The Dodgers already added right-hander Bud Norris in a deal with the Braves. But we know from his track record that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman values depth. According to the Boston Globe's Cafardo, L.A. has been "sniffing hard" after Rays right-hander Chris Archer.
Friedman, who cut his teeth in the Rays front office, is familiar with Archer, and the Dodgers have the pieces to make a blockbuster trade happen. But, Cafardo added, "Right now the answer on Archer is no."
That could change. If it doesn't, Los Angeles might target another Tampa Bay arm, such as 27-year-old lefty Matt Moore. He's on the Tommy John surgery comeback trail and shaved a full point off his ERA between June 2 and July 9.
No matter what, the 51-40 Dodgers will need to be active—possibly adding an arm and a bat—if they hope to keep pace with the archrival San Francisco Giants, who sit 6.5 games up in the NL West with the best record in baseball.
Toronto Blue Jays: Fernando Salas
11 of 18
Last season, the Toronto Blue Jays added David Price, the deadline's top pitching prize, and rolled to their first division title since the dawn of the Bill Clinton administration.
Jays fans hoping for a similarly splashy encore in 2016 had better prepare for disappointment.
While not as preternaturally potent as last season, Toronto's offense ranks second in the AL with 447 runs scored. Instead, GM Ross Atkins said in an interview with Sportsnet.ca, "Pitching will be the area that we look to improve."
Unfortunately, as Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star argued, the Jays lack the trade chips to make any significant moves after last summer's splurge.
Instead, Griffin opined, "The more likely scenario is they try to add a couple of veteran relievers on expiring contracts and play out the season, hoping for the best."
Enter 31-year-old right-hander Fernando Salas, who sports a 5.05 ERA through 41 games with the Angels but posted 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings in 2015.
Really, the moral of the story is that the 51-40 Jays—who are two games out in the AL East and in line for a wild-card slot—may have to make do with the roster mostly as is.
Boston Red Sox: Rich Hill
12 of 18
The Red Sox are loaded with young hitters. They've got David Ortiz and the fountain of youth he apparently keeps stashed in his locker.
Boston's pitching situation is dicey, however. Price is struggling to live up to his massive contract, and the entire staff has posted a pedestrian 4.43 ERA.
Expect the 49-38 Red Sox and their deep farm system to be linked to every impact arm on the market, but give an inside edge to 36-year-old A's left-hander Rich Hill.
After two tours of duty with Boston, from 2010 to 2012 and again in 2015, Hill is enjoying a career year with the A's, posting a 2.25 ERA with 90 strikeouts in 76 innings.
According to the Boston Globe's Cafardo, Hill "enjoys the East Coast lifestyle because that's where he grew up and lives in the offseason" and "has no hard feelings toward the Red Sox for not re-signing him."
There are no guarantees when it comes to trades, but this feels like a marriage made in non-waiver deadline heaven.
Baltimore Orioles: Jorge De La Rosa
13 of 18
The 51-36 Baltimore Orioles need starting pitching to augment their power-packed offense and maintain their slim two-game lead over the Red Sox and Jays in the AL East.
The O's, to put a finer point on it, rank second in the Junior Circuit with an .800 OPS but second-to-last with a 5.15 starters' ERA.
The bad news for the Maryland faithful is that Baltimore also has the second-worst farm system in the game. In a seller's market for arms, that's not likely to net an ace.
Instead, the Orioles will have to shop off the bottom shelf and hope for an unexpected bargain. Like, say, the Colorado Rockies' Jorge De La Rosa.
Yes, De La Rosa's ugly 5.74 ERA jumps off the page. But he's pitched to a 2.43 ERA in June and July. He's striking out 8.3 hitters per nine innings. And the Orioles haven't employed a left-handed starter all season.
Cleveland Indians: Jay Bruce
14 of 18
At 52-36 and 6.5 games up in the AL Central, the Cleveland Indians are finally delivering on the hype that's made them a trendy World Series pick the last two years.
The Tribe, though, could use an outfield bat to complement their cache of power arms and atone for the absence of the injured Michael Brantley.
They won't be the only club kicking the tires on the Reds' Jay Bruce, whose 18 home runs and .853 OPS would slot snugly into the middle of most lineups.
According to Heyman of Today's Knuckleball, Bruce added Cleveland to his no-trade list but "wouldn't necessarily nix a trade to the Indians."
Bruce has a team option for $13 million next season with a $1 million buyout, so he'd probably be just a rental. But if the Indians are serious about busting their 67-year-and-counting title drought, that shouldn't be an impediment.
"I want to play in October," Bruce said, per Heyman. "I'm 29. I'm not getting any younger. What I want most is the chance to play in a World Series."
Cleveland feels you, Jay.
Chicago Cubs: Aroldis Chapman
15 of 18
We've thus far shied away from including Yankees players as trade targets, because it's unclear if the Bronx Bombers are selling.
But even if they don't go into full-on fire sale mode, it's easy to imagine that the Yanks would dangle Aroldis Chapman.
The flame-throwing closer is having a typically dominant season in New York, racking up 38 strikeouts in 25.1 innings with 17 saves since returning from his domestic violence suspension.
That suspension may give prospective suitors pause, as could the fact that Chapman will be a free agent this winter.
But those factors also make New York likelier to shop Chapman than Miller or Dellin Betances, the other members of the team's shutdown late-inning trio.
If Chapman is moved, look for the Cubs to get involved.
Their farm system isn't as stacked as it used to be with so much young talent on the big league roster, but the Cubs have the pieces to swing a deal. While the bullpen hasn't been a liability, a pitcher of Chapman's pedigree would make it an unmitigated strength.
Sure enough, Chicago was linked to Chapman as far back as mid-June, per MLB.com's Phil Rogers.
After cruising through the season's first few months as a juggernaut darling, Chicago has hit a speed bump, losing eight of 10 games before the All-Star break and falling to the third-best record in the NL at 53-35.
Executive Theo Epstein, the architect of the Cubs' rebirth, won't panic. It's not in his nature. But he also won't be afraid to make a splash if it'll push the club closer to a curse-busting run.
Texas Rangers: Jonathan Lucroy
16 of 18
The Texas Rangers could use starting pitching—sound familiar?—but the 54-36 AL West leaders were recently tied to another intriguing rumor, per Fox Sports' Rosenthal.
The Brewers, Rosenthal reported, had multiple scouts at a recent game assessing the Rangers' minor league talent. It's possible, Rosenthal speculated, that Texas is "plotting to acquire Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy."
Speculation is all it is at this point, and the Rangers would surely have to part with multiple top-shelf prospects to land Lucroy, a 30-year-old two-time All-Star with a .304/.361/.491 slash line and an attractive $5.25 million team option for 2017. Jurickson Profar or Joey Gallo might only be a starting point.
Is it worth it for Texas? Every deadline move carries the potential for buyer's remorse. Lucroy, though, is a non-rental impact bat at a premium position. He could be the piece that cements the Rangers' status as AL favorites.
Washington Nationals: Ryan Madson
17 of 18
Washington Nationals fans hoping for a middle-of-the-order hitter to augment Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy or an ace-level arm to slot next to Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer should heed the words of general manager Mike Rizzo.
"I feel good about our roster," Rizzo said, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. "The starting rotation has been solid. The bullpen and the offense has been good, and the defense has been great."
That could be GM doublespeak to obscure a blockbuster in the offing. More likely, though, Rizzo will tinker around the edges of a club that sits in first place in the NL East at 54-36.
Bullpen upgrades are usually the safest bet, and A's right-hander Ryan Madson is drawing interest from an array of clubs, possibly including the Nats, per the San Francisco Chronicle's Slusser.
The 35-year-old veteran has seen his ERA and walks increase and his strikeouts diminish, but he owns a 2.91 ERA in 42 career postseason games and was a key member of the Royals' championship bullpen last season.
San Francisco Giants: Jeremy Jeffress
18 of 18
With right fielder Hunter Pence, second baseman Joe Panik and third baseman Matt Duffy all returning from injury at some point, the Giants may not need any outside offensive help.
The starting rotation rests on the capable shoulders of Madison Bumgarner and Cueto, arguably the best lefty-righty duo in the game.
That leaves the bullpen as the only real area of concern for San Francisco, which, as mentioned, owns the best record in baseball at 57-33.
The Giants relief corps hasn't been terrible, but it's been hit by injuries to key members such as right-hander Sergio Romo. Closer Santiago Casilla, meanwhile, has wobbled in stretches and already blown four saves.
San Francisco probably doesn't have the chips to land a Miller or Chapman if the Yanks make them available, but the franchise does have five players on Baseball America's updated top 100 prospects list.
They may have to part with a couple of those names to land Jeremy Jeffress, who owns a 2.35 ERA with 23 saves for the Brewers and could slot in as a setup man or assume closing duties if Casilla falters. The 28-year-old is under team control until 2020.
The Giants don't need to mortgage the farm. But they shouldn't be shy about loading up in this…wait for it…even year.
All statistics current as of July 12 and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
