Wimbledon Loss Shows Roger Federer Has No Margin for Error in Grand Slams

The Wimbledon final was on the table for Roger Federer during three break points in that fateful fourth set. All he needed was one conversion, and the dream match against Andy Murray could have been set up for the cheering fans at Centre Court.

Instead, the break points vanished. A few games later, the Swiss Maestro could not hold an ideal 40-0 cushion, due to self-destructive double-faults and brilliant points from his conquering opponent, Milos Raonic. It all happened in the blink of an eye, and once again Federer was left answering questions about another close major defeat.

"This one clearly hurts because I felt I could have had it," Federer said in his interview, which BBC Tennis tweeted below. "So close. It was really so, so close. It clearly hurts."

In hindsight, Federer's quest demanded what his fans and the tennis world have come to expect from the player many believe is the greatest of all time. He's supposed to be perfect.

Despite memorable comebacks and more special tennis, Federer is going to need the perfect storm if he is to add that increasingly elusive No. 18 major.

The Slim Margin of Defeat

Federer is keenly aware of the margins between ultimate victory and heartbreaking defeat. He's experienced almost everything in his epic career.

During the glory years of 2004-07, Federer rewrote the record books with 11 major titles in four years. It was a margin of greatness measured more in miles than inches, setting up spacious expectations tennis fans came to expect.

As the years passed and his late prime battled against the hardening dominances of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, Federer's opportunities demanded his very best control in big matches. Bidding for major titles often came down to surviving and cashing in critical break points or defending his serve for a few brief instances, perhaps never more painful than his narrow defeat to Djokovic in the 2014 Wimbledon final.

In November 2015, Federer emphasized that the difference between world No. 1 Djokovic and No. 2 Federer was a few points, per Tennis.com: "We're talking margins. You don't win a break point, he does, vice versa, it changes the whole outcome of the match. You can't always be on the winning side. Margins are small at the very top."

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Two months later, Federer's four-set semifinal loss to Djokovic at the Australian Open had that familiar refrain when the Swiss spoke of how close things were, as the ATP World Tour reported: "Margins are small out there. Even in a match like tonight where the first two sets run away. You can't get discouraged. You have to keep going, stay aggressive."

Last week, Federer couldn't help but to comment on Djokovic's two-set deficit to Sam Querrey in the third round (which was finished in the Serb's defeat the next day after rain had postponed the match). Per the Agence France-Presse (via The National), Federer reminded tennis observers: "Margins are small. I know we get carried away; we think it's impossible to beat him, all these things. Clearly he's beatable. It's not impossible."

Against Raonic, the fourth set seemed to symbolize everything about winning and losing major titles. Federer could be locked in trying to scrap for one look at the big Canadian's serve, but to complete the enormous task required that expected perfection.

It's just not that easy to block back the big Canadian's cannon serves or angle a flawless, off-balanced shot when nothing less than epic is required.

Somehow, lately, it's the other guy who doesn't crack just when Federer could use one magical moment.

PeRFect Tennis for One More Major

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The Olympics in Brazil will be another huge showcase for Federer. He hopes to be healthy and play with his best form to win a singles gold medal for the first time in his career. Beyond that, there's the 2016 U.S. Open in two months and maybe another year or more to compete for major titles.

The hard thing about dealing with this Wimbledon loss is that Federer was not turned away this time by Djokovic. Instead, it was another star-in-waiting who has patiently worked to refine his game and to have his day on the hallowed lawns of the All England Club. Raonic has matured with his ability to win critical points with his serve, and he plays every match to bide his time to win a critical break or two.

Federer has so much more variety to his game, that in some ways it can complicate just what his most important attack strategy should be. In recent years, he has wisely honed his volley skills to put pressure on his opponents. It also means he has to have a general's cunningness and an assassin's nerve for how and when to execute his magic.

Through it all, Federer's toughest defeats have usually fallen upon missed break points or service letdowns— both of which will be the capstone to an otherwise courageous and wonderful Wimbledon 2016 for Federer and his fans. It's easy to forget he fought off Marin Cilic a round earlier in a match he probably should have lost.

Going forward, can Federer pick apart Djokovic's serve when it means a major title? Will he hold the fort against Raonic and seize big tiebreakers? Will he have the legs to match Murray or young emerging players like Dominic Thiem? Does he have enough to close out one or two more perfect matches in the late stages of a major?

A lot depends on Federer's continued good health and energy, his unfailing optimism and his belief that he can still rise above pressure and reach back to his reservoir of genius when timing is most critical.

There was, after all, still a fifth set, but in the fourth game Federer was stretched to his limits as he stumbled and sprawled on the lawn at midcourt on a Raonic passing shot. He would go on to lose that game, and the margin was just enough for the Canadian to seize control and ride his big serve to victory.

Friday's a tough day for the Federer camp, but there's every opportunity to keep playing for the ultimate, tear-filled triumph that would be the most enduring comeback to prominence in his storied career. That's what Roger Federer is all about.