Wimbledon 2016 Women's Finals: Williams vs. Kerber Preview, Predictions
Last January, Serena Williams vs. Angelique Kerber would not have seemed like a dream final, but at Wimbledon 2016 it’s a genuine blockbuster sequel. It’s a battle of the top two players in the world with contrasting skills who have rolled through everyone else in the bracket.
Serena, of course, is the leading star. She’s got 21 major championships and needs one more to tie the legendary Steffi Graf. She’s also lost her previous two appearances in major finals, the French Open to Garbine Muguruza and the Australian Open to Kerber.
"I think for anyone else in this whole planet, it would be a wonderful accomplishment," Serena explained in ESPN upon reaching her third major final. "For me, it's about obviously holding the trophy and winning, which would make it a better accomplishment for me. For me, it's not enough. But I think that's what makes me different. That's what makes me Serena."
Unlike most Serena victims in recent years, Kerber comes in having defeated Serena at a major final, and she’s proving that it was no fluke.
"It’s just a very good feeling," Kerber said in the Guardian after defeating Venus Williams in the semifinals. "I’m enjoying my tennis, I am playing the best tennis of my life and enjoying myself."
It will be Serena's offensive power vs. Kerber’s defensive wizardry. Righty vs. lefty. The Queen trying to avenge her conqueror’s greatest triumph.
Time to break down their strengths, weaknesses and possibilities for a spectacular final.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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The interesting thing about their head-to-head matches is that the first six matches played between 2007-14 seem almost irrelevant. Serena took five wins, all on hard courts and only the 2007 U.S. Open first round played on a major stage. The gap between superstar Serena and prospect Kerber was another point in time.
The only match that really matters is Kerber’s shocking three-set final defeat of Serena in Melbourne this year. It was significant because Kerber rose to being one of the top few players in the world and the first player since 2011 to defeat Serena in a major final. She gained belief, and she knows that her skills and footwork are not merely going to show up and fall down at Serena’s feet.
It also started talks that Serena was slowing down. Perhaps that match did alter history in 2016, so the real question is if it will continue. That was the match that elevated Kerber and has been a significant inspiration for Serena.
The American remarked on Kerber and Melbourne in her postmatch comments after crushing Elena Vesnina, according to the Guardian: "She came out swinging, ready to win. She was fearless. That’s something I learned. When I go into a final, I, too, need to be fearless like she was. It was inspiring afterwards to realize there’s a lot of things that I need to improve on."
Slight edge to Kerber’s epic victory with plenty of motivation for Serena to come out on top this time.
Kerber at 2016 Wimbledon
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A few days ago we noted that Kerber has cruised through her section of the draw, highlighted by a huge win over No. 5 Simona Halep. Add her clinical 6-4, 6-4 semifinal win over Venus Williams, a match that saw her run around Centre Court with the kind of speed and energy that makes her a threat to repeat her Melbourne magic.
Kerber has won all 12 sets at Wimbledon and should be rested and ready to take on Serena.
The surprising thing is how well that Kerber has dominated on grass. Her defense has not lost time on lower bounces, and her own flatter shots have caused greater trouble for her opponents. Time and again, we've seen her save shots with leans or crouches that would make a gymnast proud.
Now it’s one more championship final, something she has won before.
Serena at 2016 Wimbledon
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To nobody’s surprise, Serena has powered her way to the final. She symbolically emphasized her eagerness to get to the final by destroying Elena Vesnina, 6-2, 6-0, in 48 minutes. She smashed a serve 123 mph. She tracked down defensive shots as if she was doing her best Kerber impersonation.
She looked like the Serena of early 2015, an unconquerable force that cannot be beat when her power and control merge together.
All told, Serena lost only one opening tiebreaker to Christina McHale in the first round, but the other 12 winning sets racked up a 72-30 advantage including three bagels. On grass, her power game and athleticism are in high gear, and unlike the French Open clay, she does not have to grind through four straight energy-draining matches to try and win a final against a younger power player.
She’s playing as well as possible at Wimbledon 2016.
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The Biggest X-Factor
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We touched on Kerber’s confidence and Serena’s renewed motivation. What it means is that both players will be looking to aggressively assert their styles of play. Serena knows she must lead with her power and offense, and Kerber knows she must put on her track shoes and hit flat angles with pinpoint accuracy.
Which means that the front runner will need to be sharp and show early composure. Who can exhibit a greater sense of calm to establish her game in the opening set? Both champions have been nearly perfect during the fortnight, so something’s got to give. How will the player that falls behind respond?
Will we see Kerber dig in harder if things go south, or will she collapse under the inevitable weight of Serena’s serve and power?
Will we see Serena yell in frustration if she sprays untimely errors and cannot pick up many of Kerber’s geometrical punches and retrievals?
If it’s a tight match, composure will be the difference in winning big points and ultimately the match.
Kerber Will Win Wimbledon 2016 If...
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The German plays a beautiful brand of tennis uniquely crafted by her physical gifts. She moves like a greyhound with strong legs and the ability to stretch out and execute tough running shots. She’s a retriever who will make her opponent play extra balls, but she’s a crafty offender who can goad her competitor to uncomfortable spots on the court while hitting passing shots.
But Kerber will need to play even better than her Melbourne miracle to defeat Serena this time around. She’s not going to ambush the American or lull her with a package of routine shots. She’s going to have to be sharper with her offensive attack and control the baseline without letting Serena tee off on high topspin.
Kerber’s flatter shots can keep Serena from blasting through the court, unless the American gets her feet set on short balls. When Kerber will go for those short angles is critical because she must otherwise hit deep, penetrating shots that force impatient Serena errors.
Perhaps more important, Kerber must use her first serve to get 70-75 percent of the points. Her second serve is feeble. Against Venus Williams, Kerber won only four of 15 points with her second serve. She’s going to need at least 45 percent on those second-serve lobs if she is to keep Serena from scorching Centre Court.
Kerber needs another great day, but she’s playing well so the task is possible. If she is in the groove with her shots, serves and swift legs, she will win her second major of the year and clinch her place as player of the year no matter what else happens in 2016.
Serena Will Win Wimbledon 2016 If...
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The American is power personified, beginning with her serve and topspin exchanges from the baseline. When she dictates any match with her strengths, she is nearly unbeatable. She has led the 21st-century emphasis on powerful tennis, so it’s not often that she is stymied by a tricky opponent. Kerber has proven to be that alternative style that should keep Serena wary and focused to come out and play her best.
Furthermore, Serena understands how she lost Melbourne, according to her press conference comments as reported in the Guardian: “I made a lot of errors. She made little to no unforced errors. It was still a three-set match. I felt like I could have played better. I felt like she played great.”
In other words, Serena knows that she cannot make unforced errors or play loose tennis. She watched Kerber attack her with 100 percent of her game and spirit. Serena needs to clean up the errors and double down her competitive fire, which has usually been her staple but was noticeably absent in Melbourne, at least enough to be confused at Kerber’s array of shots and success.
There might be times Serena must execute short low shots or finish at the net. She must be steady to gobble up these opportunities if she is to distance herself from Kerber’s brand of tennis.
The serve will be there, her legs will be fresh and she has Kerber on the faster grass. If she plays her A-game, she will win.
Prediction
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Serena seems beyond the pressures and media questions about Steffi Graf and the chase for historical records. Her focus on one match against Kerber is on the forefront of her comments, and she comes in with the attitude of a hungry challenger and confident champions. Simply put, she's not going to crack in this final.
Furthermore, her energy and defense has been rejuvenated, and she's not worn out the way she was in the Roland Garros final. She respects her opponent but is eager to get the job done on the court. She's not going to be denied.
A word on Kerber's remarkable run. There were doubts coming into Wimbledon about her status as a top player in the world. After Melbourne, she's had some ups and downs in dealing with the pressure of being expected to win. She's rebounded for confident, pleasing and winning tennis. She could not have scripted things better to this point at Wimbledon.
Kerber will either make this a close match and perhaps take a set because she is a unique player with her left-handed spin, shots and defense. She's a worthy finalist.
It's just that Serena is playing like she's on a mission, not for the records and the success as much as her understanding to use her mental toughness and power to win one major final.
Serena will win two hard-fought sets and get that 22nd major title. It's a match that has the potential to be a classic, unless Serena breaks it open early and often.
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