Wimbledon 2016 Men's Final: Milos Raonic vs. Andy Murray Preview, Prediction
Andy Murray can offer Milos Raonic some advice about the pressure of playing for country. The two face off Sunday in the Wimbledon men's final. On Friday, in the semifinals, Murray defeated Tomas Berdych, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, and Raonic upset Roger Federer, 6-3, 6-7 (3), 4-6, 7-5, 6-3.
Raonic becomes the first Canadian man to reach a Grand Slam final. Three years ago, Murray was the first British man to win Wimbledon in 77 years.
Back then, Murray was a one-Slam wonder trying to break the stranglehold Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal held on Grand Slam titles. This time, Murray's the established star who hopes to keep Raonic, the upstart, from making history.
The match also rekindles the rivalry between tennis greats John McEnroe and Ivan Lendl, coaches for Raonic and Murray, respectively. Lendl, an eight-time Grand Slam champion, never won at Wimbledon. McEnroe won three Wimbledon titles.
Will the British No. 1 rule over Canada's top star? The following is a preview and prediction for the 2016 Wimbledon men's final.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Murray leads the head-to-head matchup, 6-3.
Their last meeting came a few weeks ago, on grass, at the Queen's Club Championships in London. Raonic took the first set, in a tiebreaker. He then went up 3-0 in the second set before Murray stormed back. It was their only meeting on grass.
Murray's won the last five. Raonic's last win against Murray was at Indian Wells in 2014.
Raonic at Wimbledon 2016
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Prior to Wimbledon, Raonic had never come back from being two sets down. He's now done it twice.
In the fourth round, David Goffin went up two sets on Raonic. When asked by a reporter what happened early in the match, Raonic responded, per Wimbledon.org, "I think I allowed him to play too much on his terms. I was getting a lot of balls in and playing the points and playing maybe better-looking tennis at the beginning. I sort of gave up on that and said, 'I got to play this on my terms.'"
Raonic's terms? Dictate play behind a powerful serve. He leads all players in the number of aces (137). He served 23 against Federer.
Raonic got off to a solid start against Federer, breaking the 17-time Grand Slam champion early. But after a few loose unforced errors, Raonic found himself down two sets to one. He was able to turn it around behind that big serve, hitting aces that topped 140 mph.
After the win, Raonic spoke with the BBC (broadcast via ESPN): "It's an incredible comeback from me really. I was struggling through the third and fourth set. He was playing some great tennis but I found a little opening and managed to finish it off. I've got to put all my energy now into winning (the final)."
Murray at Wimbledon 2016
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Murray's semifinal win over Berdych must have felt like a walk in the park compared to the tussle he had in the quarterfinals against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.
Steady and relentless, Murray never allowed Berdych to find his rhythm. It was a straightforward win.
However, the match against Tsonga was physically and mentally challenging. After a tough first set that went to a tiebreaker, Murray appeared to be cruising to victory. But Tsonga found a second wind and his powerful forehand.
Murray was able to get through the difficult five-setter. All of Murray's other wins, including an over-hyped fourth-round victory over Nick Kyrgios, had been in straight sets.
The British No. 1 looks as solid as ever.
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The Biggest X-Factor?
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The serve will be the biggest X-factor. Raonic's serve is hard to break. If he's on fire, this puts pressure on Murray to do more with his serve.
Raonic is averaging nearly 23 aces per match. He's also getting nearly 70 percent of his first serves in.
Meanwhile, Murray is getting 65 percent of his first serves in. Against Berdych, Murray won 55 percent of his second-serve points versus 77 off his first. Berdych has a solid serve, but it's not as imposing as Raonic's.
Raonic Will Win If...
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If Raonic wants to win his first Grand Slam title, he'll have to defeat two future Hall of Famers in back-to-back matchups.
To triumph, Raonic has to believe he can do this. He told the BBC, "Mentally I had one of the best matches of my career, and that's what made the biggest difference."
Federer told Tennis.com's Nina Pantic that Raonic has "always had great focus. Serve-for-serve, point-for- point, he's always done a tremendous job there. I feel like, since maybe a year-and-a-half now, he feels maybe a bit more comfortable coming to net."
He'll have to maintain that level of focus and intensity. If he can stay focused and ace Murray off the court, the man they call "The Missile," might just pull this off.
Murray Will Win If...
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Murray comes into this match with Grand Slam final experience. Still, he has to avoid giving up the early break. That would only feed Raonic's confidence.
Murray must also stay aggressive on Raonic's serve. This may mean taking some chances and giving up a few service winners in pursuit of winning returns.
He's has to expect and withstand the onslaught of service bombs The Missile will fire his way. No matter how frustrating it becomes to break the Raonic serve, Murray has to remain patient. Raonic had 40 unforced errors against Federer.
Prediction
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Raonic's surprising comeback against Federer proved he has championship-caliber inner strength. However, he'll need a bigger game to take out Murray at Wimbledon.
Djokovic has been so dominant it's easy to overlook Murray's consistency on the tour. This is Murray's third consecutive Grand Slam final.
He has the added confidence of having Lendl back in his corner. Murray's won zero Grand Slams since his split with Lendl two years ago.
Perhaps Lendl is his lucky charm. But it will be Murray's defense and movement that stifles The Missile.
Murray wins in a tight four-set match.
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