Breaking Down Roger Federer's Chances of Winning Wimbledon 2016
There’s a different Roger Federer looking to win Wimbledon 2016 after escaping a dramatic quarterfinal victory over Marin Cilic on Wednesday. The 34-year-old Swiss Maestro, holder of seven titles at the All England Club, is seeking his record-extending 18th career major, this time as an underdog.
That’s right. For all of the history and unprecedented records, the legendary champion is peering up at an enormous task to defeat two powerful forces right after one of the most magical wins of his career. Federer understood the magnitude of his victory.
He said in his off-court BBC interview, via ESPN's Greg Garber: “I was in so much trouble in the third and again in the fourth. It was great fun. Obviously, for me, the dream continues.”
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The Cilic win felt more like destiny, the kind of intervention the tennis gods sometimes create in championship moments. Federer looked into the eyes of defeat and beat it back with his cool composure, gathering one of the great wins of his career and setting up his chances to win it all.
Steve G Tennis tweeted out Federer's succinct championship attitude in facing adversity:
What are the odds that Federer wins these last two matches? How has he bolstered his chances, and what are the biggest obstacles he faces if he is to hold the winner’s trophy on championship Sunday?
Swiss Advantages
There’s a lot to like about the way Federer is gaining momentum. He’s banished the pre-tournament questions about his bad back, post-February knee surgery difficulties and sporadic results in matches over the spring. He’s moving well with his footwork, and he’s locked into the pace and exchanges with opponents who were playing well. Wrecking Steve Johnson and outlasting a big talent like Cilic was well-earned.
Don’t underestimate how important that last match was for Federer’s morale. Such a victory can make the next match seem like one is playing with house money. Said Federer, also per Garber:
"The last three sets were really good. It's really encouraging to me that I'm improving as the matches go on. My legs were there, my back was there; mentally this is going to give me a hell of a boost.
I'm ecstatic that I was able to come through somehow. Incredible match.
"
In other words, Federer is feeling it. He survived his scare and showed his mettle. The pressure is off. No matter the circumstances against his huge-serving semifinal opponent, Milos Raonic, Federer knows he will fight to the last point.
Most important, the unassailable Novak Djokovic won't stymie him. Defeating Djokovic is like trying to play a match during the dark of night, but attacking Raonic’s footwork is a ray of sunlight. Federer will have objectives to move the 6'5" Canadian to uncomfortable positions and tough shots. If pressure decides the match, give Federer the solid edge.
The third-seeded Federer will also have support from the fans at Centre Court, at least for the next match. Anytime he flashes a highlight shot, the cheering will uplift him and weigh on his opponent. Experience, savvy and—dare we say it—“genius” are the intangibles that could steer the Swiss Maestro to the final.
There are other advantages. He’s still a strong server, possesses outstanding volley skills and is one of the great opportunist serve returners of all time.
Federer might also want to send a “thank you” card to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who took a two-sets deficit to No. 2 seed Andy Murray and stretched him out for another hour-and-a half. All told, Federer’s match was three hours and 18 minutes, while Murray’s match was seven minutes shy of four hours.
And Murray. If Federer survives Raonic, he will be perceived as the underdog in facing his Scottish rival. But at his best, Federer has always had the upper hand thanks to his superior offense, aggressiveness and mental confidence in this matchup. He’s defeated Murray five consecutive times, including last year’s semifinal straight-sets masterpiece that will no doubt be prominent in each of their minds. He’s won five of six times in major contests over the years.
Federer’s already bucked the odds, having slogged through the first five matches. He’s now set for his best opportunity to break a four-year drought of Grand Slam titles. He’s close.
Against the Odds
Despite his resume, Federer is less likely to win with dominance than with guile. He still gets stretches of play where he flicks that outstretched backhand for a winner or drills cross-court forehand winners. He can be downright magical at net doing a 21st-century impression of Stefan Edberg.
The challenge is he must find optimum control and rhythm against Raonic. It won’t be easy if there are only a few rallies and opportunities to strike.
Raonic is the biggest server in the game. He can blast his first serve over 140 mph, but the important thing is he has won behind his first serve 79 to 87 percent in every match. He’s defended his second serve at an even more astonishing 56 to 71 percent in each match.
The Goliath is getting to net to convert about 29 of 43 times a match (145 of 216 approaches for the five matches) for a hefty two-thirds of winning points. This is significant improvement over his old strategy of hesitating more on the baseline, which Raonic used when Federer pasted him in the 2014 Wimbledon semifinal.
Raonic is evolving, and Federer must bring his sling and stones to penetrate the his adversary's power.
We might call this match a slight advantage for Raonic, given that he’s defeated a fine baseliner like David Goffin in five sets in the fourth round and has the confidence from defeating Federer at Brisbane, Australia, in January when Federer was in top form.
If Raonic is a slight favorite, we will give Federer a 45 percent chance of getting through to the final.
If Murray loses his semifinal against Tomas Berdych, Federer might buy strawberries and cream for every patron at Centre Court. He would gain the overwhelming crowd support that could be louder and more vocal than the UEFA Euro final. Given his advantages and recent mastery of Berdych since his greater emphasis to volley during the Edberg coaching partnership, this scenario gives Federer a 90 percent chance of winning the final.
All told, Federer to defeat Raonic (45 percent) and Berdych (90 percent) is about 41 percent overall to win the trophy.
If Murray wins, the odds change considerably. Murray has more confidence under coach Ivan Lendl. His Davis Cup captain, Leon Smith, recently stated in the Evening Standard: “I think he's playing his best tennis of his life.”
Murray dropped the 2012 Wimbledon final to Federer but rebounded later that month to win the Olympics gold medal on the same London stage on grass. He knows he should get the job done against his aging rival.
But there’s something about Murray that inspires Federer. Last year's semifinal clinic was pure Federer dominance, though nobody expects something like that again. If Murray is still listed as a favorite, and especially with the grass drier and harder to help his baseline retrieving against Federer, we might only assign Murray a 60 percent chance to win the match.
All told, Federer to defeat Raonic (45 percent) and Murray (40 percent) is about 18 percent to hold Sunday’s trophy. Even if pundits want to call both matches a coin flip, that’s still only a 25 percent chance to hold the title. It’s a solid chance, but it's still against the odds.
For now, Federer can enjoy the Cilic victory while setting his sights and preparations for Raonic on Friday, hoping he is sharp enough with his serve, timely with his returns and able to navigate those precious few opportunities against a big gun. If he starts well, he can ride the wave and perhaps put himself in a championship mentality to defeat Murray and hoist up No. 18.
It could happen, but he will need the best tennis of his late career. That is, he might play his best tennis with Djokovic watching from the couch.
Statistics courtesy of Wimbledon.com unless otherwise noted.
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