Realistic Blockbuster MLB Trades That Could Go Down This July
The upcoming MLB All-Star break freezes the standings, forcing organizations to spend the reprieve deliberating their status before the trade deadline.
For just this year, general managers get an extra day with the non-waiver deadline pushed to August 1. Action won't accelerate until later in July, but everyone can get a feel for who's buying, who's selling and which players will frequent the conversations.
Let's not get carried away with grand aspirations of the Los Angeles Angels opening a bidding war for Mike Trout. A last-place team will sell veterans but usually not young stars. For that reason, this won't be a place to discuss trade scenarios for Wil Myers (25 years old), Julio Teheran (25), Chris Archer (27) or Sonny Gray (26).
Let's instead examine notable players with a more realistic chance of changing employers before the deadline. It's not all veterans on expiring contracts, as a couple of need-based exchanges should intrigue all parties.
Matt Shoemaker (Los Angeles Angels) for Derek Dietrich (Miami Marlins)
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Proposed Trade
- To Miami Marlins: SP Matt Shoemaker
- To Los Angeles Angels: 2B/3B Derek Dietrich
Analysis
Don't dismiss Shoemaker as unworthy of blockbuster billing.
The Angels righty sports a middling 4.45 ERA, but he also wields an elite 9.00 strikeouts and 2.04 walks per nine innings. Since the end of April, the 29-year-old has earned a 3.18 ERA, 81 strikeouts and 12 walks over 76.1 frames.
He went four straight starts without walking a batter and has accrued double-digit strikeouts three times. He also allowed five runs to the Boston Red Sox on July 3, but who hasn't struggled against Boston's bats?
The Angels don't have many attractive trade pieces (no, they're not moving Mike Trout), so they should consider shopping Shoemaker even though he'll only enter arbitration this winter. Given his past inconsistencies, selling high is understandable if a contender ponies up.
As a fly-ball pitcher who has made some of his worst starts against the Red Sox, New York Yankees and Texas Rangers, he would benefit from a change to a favorable National League venue. The Miami Marlins fit that description.
At 45-41, they are hanging around thanks to Jose Fernandez and a loaded outfield. If they fancy themselves legit contenders—they wouldn't have acquired Fernando Rodney otherwise—they need another starter.
Even if they end up fighting to finish above .500, they still get a cost-controlled rotation piece. While they don't have many prospects to offer, they can send second baseman Dietrich, as the deadline coincides with Dee Gordon's return from a 80-game suspension.
The 26-year-old Dietrich has proved his worth as a valuable everyday contributor with a .400 on-base percentage in 270 plate appearances. The Marlins need a starter. The Angels need everything, but a patient hitter is a better long-term bet than a pitcher set to turn 30 in September. This clean swap makes sense for both sides.
Jonathan Lucroy (Milwaukee Brewers) to Houston Astros
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Proposed Trade
- To Houston Astros: C Jonathan Lucroy
- To Milwaukee Brewers: OF Daz Cameron, 3B J.D. Davis, SP Brendan McCurry
Analysis
The Milwaukee Brewers don't need to trade Lucroy yet. If they stand pat, they'll likely exercise a $5.25 million club option to retain him next season.
That's one of baseball's most team-friendly arrangements for an All-Star catcher hitting .302/.361/.493 and sporting excellent pitch-framing skills. There's no rush to act now, but doing so would net Milwaukee a greater return.
Last summer, the Houston Astros acquired Carlos Gomez from the Brewers with the incentive of getting another full year from the outfielder. But the Brewers got an excellent return. Domingo Santana immediately made the MLB roster, and Brett Phillips and Josh Hader are their No. 2 and No. 4 prospects on MLB.com, respectively.
History may repeat itself. After winning 15 of their last 19 games, the Astros have erased a disappointing start and soared back into the playoff picture. Their farm system is still deep enough to ship more young talent to Milwaukee.
With Jason Castro struggling at the plate, Houston has tossed in slugger Evan Gattis at catcher. A platoon gets the job done, but neither will vanish if the Brewers add Lucroy, who can also spend some time at first.
Flushed with toolsy outfielders, the Astros send Cameron as the headliner. With first baseman A.J. Reed beating him to the majors and shortstop/future third baseman Alex Bregman set to follow, Davis has a better chance of utilizing his power and plate discipline for the Brewers.
Rich Hill and Danny Valencia (Oakland Athletics) to Boston Red Sox
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Proposed Trade
- To Boston Red Sox: SP Rich Hill, 3B/OF Danny Valencia
- To Oakland Athletics: 3B Michael Chavis, SS Mauricio Dubon, SP Kyle Martin
Analysis
Hill returned from the baseball dead last year, recording a 1.55 ERA in four late-season starts for the Red Sox. After letting him parlay that revival into a one-year deal with the Oakland Athletics, Boston could use him back.
The veteran southpaw has proved his rejuvenation was no fluke, registering a 2.25 ERA and 90 strikeouts over 76 innings. While the bargain signing hasn't helped propel Oakland up the standings, it provides the notoriously active Athletics with a golden trade chip.
Oakland is poised to unload as the deadline's top seller, and Red Sox team president Dave Dombrowski is never shy about making a big win-now move. He quickly signified a change in front-office philosophy by shipping an enticing package of prospects to the San Diego Padres for closer Craig Kimbrel last offseason.
Now he needs another starter to augment his scorched-earth offense. But if he's already on the phone with A's general manager David Forst, he might as well ask about Valencia.
Like Hill, the 31-year-old has sustained atypical production flaunted last year, hitting .307/.354/.502 with a dozen home runs. The Red Sox don't need another bat, but Valencia would address their rare areas of mortality. He can stop their revolving door at left field and/or supplant third baseman Travis Shaw against lefties, as Shaw is hitting just .211 against southpaws.
Such a haul would cost Dombrowski. Infield prospects Chavis and Dubon would both be significant losses, but Boston can stomach the sacrifice as long as it holds onto Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi.
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Jay Bruce (Cincinnati Reds) to Cleveland Indians
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Proposed Trade
- To Cleveland Indians: OF Jay Bruce
- To Cincinnati Reds: SP Juan Hillman, RP Shawn Armstrong, 2B/SS Tyler Krieger
Analysis
It makes a ton of sense for the Cincinnati Reds to trade Bruce.
Last in the National League Central, they'll have no use for the outfielder during the final months before his contract expires, though they could keep him by enacting a $13 million club option. Despite his defensive flaws, the slugger has sweetened a potential return by hitting .265/.313/.539 with 18 home runs and his highest weighted on-base average since 2010.
The 29-year-old lefty holds a limited no-trade clause, but he's willing to move after spending his entire career in Cincinnati.
"I would consider waiving the no-trade clause for all types of reasons," Bruce told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon. "There's no blanket reason I wouldn't. I'm open to all possibilities, but it would be situation to situation. If I am moved, which has seemed likely for the last year-and-a-half, I'd like to go where the team is mostly likely to win."
While the Cleveland Indians are one of eight teams Bruce can block a trade to, Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball said he's "very likely" to approve a deal there. A 14-game winning streak afforded them breathing room atop the American League Central, but they can still use another power bat.
According to Cleveland.com's Paul Hoynes, Michael Brantley is optimistic about returning from the disabled list, but he only lasted two weeks last time. They can't bank on rookie center fielder Tyler Naquin staying hot this long. They have also received more power than expected from Rajai Davis (9 HR), Mike Napoli (18 HR) and Carlos Santana (20 HR), so Bruce offers insurance against an ill-timed regression.
Cincinnati needs pitching, and Cleveland boasts a deep crop of intriguing minor league hurlers behind its loaded MLB rotation. The Indians can hold onto their top-shelf prospects by trading Hillman, a 19-year-old southpaw with a 1.31 ERA through four Single-A starts, along with two other fringe chips.
Jake Odorizzi (Tampa Bay Rays) for Joey Gallo (Texas Rangers)
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Proposed Trade
- To Texas Rangers: SP Jake Odorizzi
- To Tampa Bay Rays: 3B/OF Joey Gallo
Analysis
Imagine how bad the Rangers rotation would be without Cole Hamels, whom they sold the farm to acquire last summer. Even with the lefty ace in tow, they have the fewest strikeouts per nine innings (6.37) among any starting unit in baseball.
Despite their lackluster pitching, they're 54-34 with a seven-game lead over Houston in the American League West. Then again, those two teams know a large lead isn't safe with more than two months remaining.
The Rangers are so loaded offensively that they must maneuver to make room for Jurickson Profar, a 23-year-old hitting .317/.354/.439. And let's not forget about behemoth slugger Gallo and outfielder Lewis Brinson, a highly regarded prospect despite his 2016 struggles.
Texas should consider moving a young bat for a pitcher, but not a veteran rental like Rich Hill. It's also unlikely to snag a young ace, but Odorizzi represents the perfect compromise.
According to ESPN.com's Jim Bowden, the Rays and Rangers have initiated discussions for the 26-year-old righty, whose ERA ballooned to 4.33 after allowing seven runs to the Angels on Tuesday. Tampa Bay has expressed interest in Profar, Gallo and Brinson, per Bowden.
Tampa Bay somehow manages to keep manufacturing arms, welcoming Blake Snell to the fold and hoping Alex Cobb returns from Tommy John surgery shortly.
If anyone can justify trading a solid starter with multiple years of team control, it's the Rays. If anyone can justify moving a slugger with 40-homer upside, it's the Rangers. Because of his strikeout woes, Texas exchanges Gallo for Odorizzi, who becomes its No. 2 or 3 starter depending on Yu Darvish's health.
Aroldis Chapman (New York Yankees) to Washington Nationals
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Proposed Trade
- To Washington Nationals: RP Aroldis Chapman
- To New York Yankees: OF Andrew Stevenson, RP Koda Glover
Analysis
Are the 42-44 Yankees buyers or sellers at the deadline? Maybe neither? They remain tight-lipped on their intentions, but logic leans toward them exploring offers for veterans.
They trail the Baltimore Orioles by 7.5 games in the American League East and will have to leapfrog six clubs to appear in the Wild Card Game again. One look at their minus-39 run differential should have executives realizing a playoff berth isn't probable.
Along with All-Star outfielder Carlos Beltran, general manager Brian Cashman should dangle his lethal late-inning relievers, but probably not the 28-year-old Dellin Betances.
According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the Bronx Bombers are listening to pitches: "Rival evaluators say the Yankees are taking offers for Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and other players right now, setting up the team to execute trades quickly whenever the club's leadership decides to refocus the organization's efforts on 2017."
A longer contract makes Miller (signed through 2018) the more desirable trade asset, but Chapman's expiring deal means his brief days in New York are numbered.
It was never likely for the Yankees to retain all three relievers beyond 2016, so Cashman might as well pawn off the Cuban flamethrower to the highest bidder. The Chicago Cubs are a popular dream destination, but they need depth behind Pedro Strop and closer Hector Rondon more than a flashy move.
The Washington Nationals, on the other hand, have made high-profile reliever acquisitions recently in Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon. An aggressive franchise in need of a lefty reliever will take the plunge on Chapman.
For their troubles, the Yankees get Stevenson—a speedy center fielder who can replace Brett Gardner or Jacoby Ellsbury down the line—and reliever Guerra—who can become a mid-inning option by next season.
If the Yankees are open to trading both, the Cubs are a top candidate to land Miller.
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. Contract information obtained from Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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