Bleacher Report's Full Preview, Predictions for 2016 MLB Trade Season
In a few days, Major League Baseball will break for the All-Star Game. It'll be a nice, lighthearted exhibition for everyone involved.
But after that, things are going to get nutty.
With the July 31 trade deadline looming, baseball's trade season will get into full-swing after the Midsummer Classic comes and goes on July 12. We're here to preview the madness, with a look at who's selling, who's buying and, with assists from MLB Trade Rumors, which players figure to be available. Also, we have a few (likely ill-fated) predictions for blockbuster trades.
We'll start with the buyers and sellers. Step into the box when you're ready.
Who Are the Sellers?
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Based on their records and their various tradeable assets, these are the big sellers to keep an eye on in the coming weeks.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers' 37-47 record confirms they still have a lot of rebuilding to do. Fortunately for them, they could take a big step forward in that regard ahead of July 31. Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy give them two stars to deal. They could also trade from a collection of other assets that includes Chris Carter, Aaron Hill, Jeremy Jeffress, Will Smith and perhaps breakout shortstop Jonathan Villar.
Oakland A's
It's possible, but the 36-49 A's probably won't trade Sonny Gray while his value is down. But between Rich Hill, Josh Reddick, Danny Valencia, Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie, Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and potentially Stephen Vogt and Khris Davis, they have quite a few assets that could help them get to...well, wherever it is that ever-mysterious A's general manager Billy Beane wants to get to.
San Diego Padres
The 37-48 Padres pressed the rebuild button this winter and, like the Brewers, could now take a big step forward. Wil Myers is likely to draw the most interest. Even if the Padres don't deal him, they could do well in trades of Drew Pomeranz, Derek Norris, Matt Kemp, Melvin Upton Jr., Alexei Ramirez and, if healthy, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross.
New York Yankees
Yankees president Randy Levine wants the world to believe all the talk about the team selling is "just noise," per the New York Times' Seth Berkman.
But according to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, it's not. The 41-43 Yankees are already entertaining offers for lefty relief aces Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller. Other pieces they could move are Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and Ivan Nova.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays' 34-50 record puts them deep in last place in a competitive AL East. They're going to be flooded with calls about Chris Archer. He probably won't go anywhere, but Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly are three starting pitchers who could. The Rays could also flip Logan Morrison and Steve Pearce.
A Few More
The Atlanta Braves could draw a big crowd if they make Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Ender Inciarte available. That may only be a 50-50 proposition, however. And if they don't deal those guys, all they have is Erick Aybar and Nick Markakis.
The Cincinnati Reds have already stripped themselves of their best assets, notably selling off Johnny Cueto last summer. But they still have Jay Bruce and Zack Cozart, who figure to be hot items.
The Philadelphia Phillies are also low on tradeable assets, but they could get something for Jeremy Hellickson and Jeanmar Gomez.
The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't going to blow up their flawed product, but they could deal a trio of relievers: Brad Ziegler, Daniel Hudson and Tyler Clippard.
Teams would love it if the Colorado Rockies made Carlos Gonzalez available. If not, they still have Nick Hundley, Jorge De La Rosa, Mark Reynolds, Jake McGee and Boone Logan to offer.
The Minnesota Twins might be able to get out of Ervin Santana's contract this summer. If not, they'll probably field interest in Eduardo Nunez and Fernando Abad.
Per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, the Los Angeles Angels don't want to rebuild. In case anyone's holding out hope (guilty), that means no Mike Trout trade. Yunel Escobar and Joe Smith are two guys who could probably be had, though.
Who Are the Buyers?
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And now for something completely different. These are the teams most likely to be buying during trade season and what they'll be looking for.
Boston Red Sox
The 46-38 Red Sox look like the ideal buyer: a flawed team that could be good with the right fixes and with a deep farm system to trade from. A pitching staff with a 4.51 ERA is badly in need of a starting pitcher, as well as a late-inning reliever. If they're so inclined, they could also take advice from Dave Cameron of FanGraphs and make a strength even stronger by adding another bat.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers are the AL's best team at 53-33, but they're also not without flaws. A starting rotation that's been hit hard by injuries could benefit from either depth or a top-of-the-rotation guy. A bullpen with a 5.03 ERA is badly in need of a shutdown arm. The Rangers can go get pretty much anyone they want. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports veteran scouts are "blown away" by their farm system.
Chicago Cubs
The 52-32 Cubs are already one of baseball's best teams, but they have at least 108 reasons not to take any chances. Their bullpen would look awfully good with another shutdown reliever in it. They could also look to find some depth for their lineup or starting rotation. The latter has arguably been too good this year.
Cleveland Indians
At 51-33, Cleveland is a legit championship contender. That's mainly thanks to a starting rotation that's like a pitching version of the team's 1990s offense. Now the Indians just need to strengthen the areas around it. According to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, that will ideally mean adding both a reliever and a hitter.
San Francisco Giants
The 54-33 Giants are doing their even-year magic thing again. Finishing off a fourth championship in seven years could require some help, though. According to Jim Bowden of ESPN.com, general manager Bobby Evans is hot after a back-end reliever and an outfield bat. He could also go for more rotation depth behind Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija.
New York Mets
The 46-38 Mets can definitely pitch. But their offense is back to being a problem, as they're just 13th in the National League in runs. They could look to acquire a first baseman, a third baseman or an outfielder. The bigger, the better.
Washington Nationals
The 51-35 Nationals have enough starting pitching and arguably enough offense. Getting some outfield depth wouldn't be the worst thing for them, though. Even better would be a late-inning reliever, especially if said late-inning reliever is a left-hander whose name rhymes with Chatman or Biller.
A Few More
The Houston Astros are the big "What if?" buyer. They could go for a catcher, a third baseman, a starter or a reliever and have enough farm system depth to go big. But since they've come on really strong to get to their 46-39 record, they may be too hot to feel desperate.
At 48-39 and with weak spots in their rotation and in their outfield, the Los Angeles Dodgers could be major players. But knowing their front office's general lack of urgency, it's hard to count on it.
At 43-41 and with depth issues at third base, second base, right field and in their starting rotation, the Kansas City Royals have a lot of calls to make. But with a depleted farm system, making moves could be tough.
With a 5.10 ERA, the Baltimore Orioles have a starting rotation that makes even Boston's look good. If they find help, they'll be pairing a stabilized rotation with a powerful offense and an amazing bullpen.
Elsewhere, the Toronto Blue Jays and St. Louis Cardinals could both use bullpen upgrades.
The Catching Market
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The Top Targets
Jonathan Lucroy (MIL): The 30-year-old is under contract for $4 million this year, with a $5.25 million option for 2017. That's one thing that makes him attractive. Then there's his talent. Lucroy played at an MVP level in 2014 and is washing away a rough 2015 with an .841 OPS this year.
Derek Norris (SDP): Norris is under club control through 2018, so he's no rental. The question is how much he'll hit, as his offense has trended downward since making the All-Star roster in 2014. However, the 27-year-old is at least a good platoon bat against left-handed pitching.
Nick Hundley (COL): The 32-year-old will be a free agent at the end of the year, so he is a rental. But even after the Coors Field effect is taken into account, his .803 OPS over the last two years still paints him as a solid pickup for a team in need of catching stability.
Stephen Vogt (OAK): This is a shot in the dark, as there hasn't been much noise since Vogt's name was surfing on trade winds last year. He's controlled through 2019, so there's no hurry for the A's to move him. They do like to maximize value, though. With the 31-year-old headed to his second straight All-Star Game, it's a good time to do that with Vogt.
Other Targets
A previously mentioned report from Olney also noted the Yankees are willing to take offers on Brian McCann. His solid .763 OPS over the last two years will probably attract some calls. But with bad road splits as a Yankee and a contract that still has $34 million on it after 2016, moving him won't be easy.
Teams may be better off trying their luck with Welington Castillo or Kurt Suzuki. The former has a power bat and one more year of club control. The latter is a rental who can hit for average and provide some veteran leadership.
Blockbuster Prediction: Lucroy to the Astros
Rosenthal reported that Lucroy was on Houston's radar back in February, and he now looks like an even better fit for the team. He would be an easy offensive upgrade. Beyond that, the Astros are the kind of team that would value his reputation as a strike-framer.
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The Corner Infield Market
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The Top Targets
Wil Myers, 1B (SDP): According to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball, "the Padres are open to trading anyone." We'll take that as a sign Myers isn't untouchable. With an .896 OPS, 19 homers and 13 stolen bases this year and club control that lasts through 2019, the 25-year-old first baseman is certainly a major trade asset. Moving him could push San Diego's rebuild way forward.
Danny Valencia, 3B (OAK): With an .867 OPS and 30 homers over the last two years, this is a guy who deserves more press. To boot, the 31-year-old isn't so much a third baseman as he is a super-utility guy who happens to be playing third base. He's not a long-term stud like Myers, but Valencia could make a big short-term impact for a contender.
Chris Carter, 1B (MIL): Any team that needs power can give Carter a look. His 20 homers prove his prodigious power is alive and well. The catch, as always, is that the 29-year-old doesn't offer much offensive consistency or defensive versatility.
Yunel Escobar, 3B (LAA): The Angels may not be interested in rebuilding, but Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com has reported they're listening on Escobar. The 33-year-old is due for free agency at the end of the year. And with a .316 average over the last two seasons, he packs a quality bat.
Other Targets
In Logan Morrison and Steve Pearce, the Rays have two solid platoon bats that are also affordable rentals. Both fit well at first base, but Pearce has positional versatility beyond the not-so-hot corner.
Yangervis Solarte is even more versatile, as the Padres switch-hitter can play at second and first in addition to third. Elsewhere, anyone looking for affordable pop can call the Brewers about Aaron Hill or the Rockies about Mark Reynolds.
The wild card in this market is David Freese. If the Pittsburgh Pirates stumble and look to sell, his free-agent-to-be status would make him a goner. His .832 OPS, meanwhile, would make him an asset.
Trevor Plouffe was an option a couple days ago. But according to Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, a rib injury will sideline Plouffe for at least a month.
Blockbuster Prediction: Valencia to Indians
Padres GM A.J. Preller will get plenty of calls on Myers, but he's more of an offseason trade candidate. Valencia is much easier to move, and few contenders have as much incentive to get him as the Indians. They need offense at third base, as well as a second right-handed power bat to pair with Mike Napoli.
The Middle Infield Market
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The Top Targets
Zack Cozart, SS (CIN): Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors sees Cozart as an easily movable piece with many potential suitors. Indeed, the 30-year-old is controlled through 2017 and has developed some offense to go with a glove that's always been good. He owns a .792 OPS over the last two years.
Eduardo Nunez, SS (MIN): The 29-year-old is celebrating his first All-Star selection, but he should be prepared to pack his bags. The Twins are in a position to take advantage of his inflated value before regression hits his .316 average and .823 OPS. His versatile glove is also attractive.
Jonathan Villar, SS (MIL): Brewers GM David Stearns told Heyman the club is "looking to acquire" players like Villar. However, he's in the way of stud prospect Orlando Arcia. The Brewers can get him out of the way by taking advantage of value boosted by a .791 OPS and an MLB-best 27 stolen bases. Plus, the 25-year-old is no rental. He's controlled through 2020.
Jed Lowrie, 2B (OAK): Lowrie's best days are in the past, but the 32-year-old still has some appeal. He's a switch-hitter with a tendency for tough at-bats, and his glove can play at third base as well as second base. He does have $7.5 million left on his deal after 2016, though.
Other Targets
The middle infield market offers a collection of veterans who are past their prime but could still be of use in situations that are especially dire. That collection includes Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips, Braves shortstop Erick Aybar and Padres shortstop Alexei Ramirez.
For teams that are more in the mood for a glove that can be moved around, Sean Rodriguez will be another option on the table if the Pirates sell. If not, J.P. Crawford's looming arrival could make the Phillies more than happy to deal Freddy Galvis.
Blockbuster Prediction: Cozart to Mariners
Of the possibilities listed by Todd, Seattle makes the most sense for Cozart. The Mariners need an offensive upgrade at shortstop, where Ketel Marte has given them well-below-average production. The Mariners don't have much in the way of prospects, but Cozart's not the kind of guy who will cost a prospect arm and a prospect leg. Crafty GM Jerry Dipoto could figure something out.
The Outfield Market
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The Top Targets
Ryan Braun, LF (MIL): There's no time like the present for Milwaukee to try and get out of the $80 million remaining on Braun's contract after 2016. The 32-year-old is healthy and productive, putting up a .912 OPS and 13 home runs in 2016. Better move him before he gets healthy and unproductive again.
Jay Bruce, RF (CIN): Todd has Bruce ranked as the top trade target of the summer, citing the fact that his $13 million option for 2017 suddenly doesn't look so bad. Because the 29-year-old is bouncing back from two tough years with an .861 OPS and 18 homers, it's hard to argue.
Carlos Gonzalez, RF (COL): Heyman reported in June that the Rockies are expected to listen on Gonzalez this summer. His .884 OPS and 58 homers over the last two years make him very attractive. His career home/away splits and his $20 million salary in 2017? Less so.
Josh Reddick, RF (OAK): As a free-agent-to-be, Reddick is as likely as anyone to be moved by the A's in coming weeks. His sketchy injury history is a red flag. But with an above-average bat and a good glove in right field, the 29-year-old could make a big difference for a contender in the stretch run.
Carlos Beltran, RF (NYY): With a .912 OPS and 19 home runs, the 39-year-old is still getting it done at the dish. The catch is that his bat is really all he has left at this point. But on a team that's strong enough elsewhere, said bat could help the push to October. Once there, we all know what Beltran can do.
Brett Gardner, LF (NYY): Gardner's contract still has $26 million left on it after 2016, and he's not having an especially good year. These things will make him harder to move than Beltran. Still, the 32-year-old has value as a pesky top-of-the-lineup hitter with some power and speed.
Matt Kemp, RF (SDP): Kemp is a shell of his former all-around dynamic self, and the Dodgers are only paying $10.5 million of the $65.25 million left on his contract after 2016. If Kemp gets hot and adds to his 16 homers in coming weeks, however, the Padres might be able to sell buyers on his power.
Other Targets
Two players teams probably want to hit the market are A's left fielder Khris Davis and Braves center fielder Ender Inciarte. Both offer a nice mix of talent and controllability. Trouble is, they probably have too much of both as far as their current employers are concerned.
As such, the secondary market is more likely to consist of guys like Nick Markakis, Coco Crisp, Melvin Upton Jr. and Ryan Raburn. These veterans could be useful in supporting roles.
Blockbuster Prediction: Bruce to Royals
The Royals need upgrades at several positions, but right field is their most pressing need. They've gotten little offense out of the position, including just one home run. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe has reported on their interest in Bruce. If the Royals follow through on that, it would be no problem to keep him in town next season, too.
The Starting Pitching Market
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The Top Targets
Sonny Gray, RHP (OAK): According to Cafardo, Gray draws "double-digit" scouts to each of his starts. Despite his less-than-awesome 2016, the interest will be there if the A's put him on the table. Teams are clearly more interested in the 2.88 ERA the 26-year-old put up in his first three seasons.
Julio Teheran, RHP (ATL): Teheran is one year younger than Gray and potentially controllable for longer. Gray hits free agency after 2019. Teheran has an option for 2020. Teheran is also boosting his value with an All-Star season. If Beane doesn't want to move Gray, his suitors will turn to Teheran.
Rich Hill, LHP (OAK): Hill might be the most obvious trade chip in baseball. The 36-year-old is only signed for this year, in which he's continuing a renaissance punctuated by a 2.09 ERA since late 2015. He could be a huge addition to a contender for the stretch run.
Drew Pomeranz, LHP (SDP): Because Pomeranz is only controlled through 2018, he's not guaranteed to still be around when the Padres finish rebuilding. It makes sense to move him, and the 27-year-old lefty's 2.65 ERA this season should attract a nice crowd.
Matt Moore, LHP (TBR): According to Rosenthal, the Rays are indeed willing to move some starters. Moore could be the guy teams covet most. He's had his ups and downs, but he's still only 27 and with a contract that has options through 2019.
Jake Odorizzi, RHP (TBR): Despite some issues with the long ball, Odorizzi has been a solid starter with a 3.87 ERA since 2014. The 26-year-old is also under club control through 2018. He's not going to lead anybody's rotation, but he could provide valuable innings for years to come.
Drew Smyly, LHP (TBR): Smyly has also had problems with the long ball. But he's also struck out over 10 batters per nine innings over the last two years. That plus the fact he's a 27-year-old controlled through 2018 make him yet another attractive Rays pitcher.
Other Targets
Oh, there are just a few. Some are even on the same team. The Yankees could deal CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi or Ivan Nova. The Angels could deal Hector Santiago or Matt Shoemaker. If healthy, the Padres could deal Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross in addition to Pomeranz.
And then there are the wild cards. Ervin Santana still has some ability but also a big contract. Francisco Liriano also has ability, but he has been wildly inconsistent and is on a team that may not sell. Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Garza and Jorge De La Rosa will probably be made available but are mere back-end guys.
Blockbuster Prediction: Hill to the Red Sox
In light of their many assets, their huge need and Dave Dombrowski's history of going for it, no team looks more likely to make a play for a big-name starter than the Red Sox. While they'd probably prefer Gray or Teheran, Hill is the best bet to be their guy. If healthy, he's the kind of dominant starter they need. And unlike the other guys, they won't have to empty the farm to get him.
The Relief Pitching Market
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The Top Targets
Aroldis Chapman, LHP (NYY): Chapman is still firing 100 mph fastballs, and he has a career-best 8.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio to go with his 2.86 ERA. So it goes for the fire-balling lefty, and that could equal a killing for the Yankees once teams line up to rent him for the rest of the year.
Andrew Miller, LHP (NYY): According to Barry M. Bloom of MLB.com, Miller has been told he won't be traded. But it's hard to believe the Yankees wouldn't move him for the right price. He owns a 1.90 ERA and a rate of 15.1 strikeouts per nine innings since 2014. At those rates, the $18 million the 31-year-old has left on his contract after 2016 doesn't sound so bad.
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP (ATL): The Braves control Vizcaino through 2019. They could be contenders by then, so there's no need to move him. But with the 25-year-old flame-thrower dominating to the tune of a 2.31 ERA and 12.1 K/9, the Braves may get an offer they can't refuse.
Ryan Madson, RHP (OAK): The A's have Madson signed for two more years, so they might not rush to deal him. But when a 35-year-old with a crowded injury history is performing well, it's never a bad idea to get while the getting's good.
Sean Doolittle, LHP (OAK): Doolittle is another A's reliever who's had issues staying healthy. But when healthy, the 29-year-old lefty regularly blows hitters away. He also has a team-friendly contract with options through 2020.
Jeremy Jeffress, RHP (MIL): Jeffress is making the most of his chance to close games, racking up 23 saves with a 2.45 ERA in 2016. He's controlled through 2019, but that may not stop Milwaukee from capitalizing on his value.
Jeanmar Gomez, RHP (PHI): Gomez is another guy making the most of a chance to close games. He has 22 saves with a 2.75 ERA for the Phillies. He may be overachieving with these numbers, so the Phillies shouldn't hesitate to entertain offers for the 28-year-old.
Fernando Abad, LHP (MIN): Abad's career has had its ups and downs. He's currently trending upward, posting a 2.57 ERA with an 8.0 K/9 out of Minnesota's pen. The Twins should move the 30-year-old while they can.
Brad Ziegler, RHP (ARI): It's simple: Teams in need of a designated ground-ball guy should call the Diamondbacks about Ziegler.
Other Targets
Will Smith is another quality reliever who can probably be pried from the Brewers. That's one lefty worth checking in on, and the Rockies have two more in Boone Logan and Jake McGee.
If the Pirates go into sell mode, GM Neal Huntington can expect to field calls on Mark Melancon, Tony Watson and Neftali Feliz. All three have good numbers this year and can fit late-inning roles in any bullpen.
Right now, the Angels may only be willing to move Joe Smith. Convincing them to part with Huston Street, who's signed through 2017 with an option for 2018, will be harder. But maybe not impossible.
Blockbuster Prediction: Chapman to Nationals
The Nationals sure do need a dominant left-hander in their bullpen, and Chapman sure does fit the bill. Bill Ladson of MLB.com reported in early June that he would be on the club's radar if he was made available. Since that seems to be happening, the only question now might be if anyone will outbid the Nats for him. The Cubs are a threat in that regard but also a team likely to know its limits.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked and are current through Tuesday, July 5.
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