Wimbledon 2016 Women's Semifinals: Williams vs. Kerber Preview, Predictions
Wimbledon means timeless tradition and legendary champions, so it’s fitting that in 2016 Venus and Serena Williams are semifinalists late in their careers. They have already combined for 11 of the 16 Wimbledon titles in the 21st century, and they will be at the center of crowning this week's queen of tennis.
The drama is heightened with elder sister Venus getting the first crack at German Angelique Kerber in the semifinals. It was Kerber who upset Serena in the 2016 Australian Open final, and now she might have to go through both Venus and Serena if she is to win an astonishing second major and bid for the No. 1 ranking in the world.
So it’s the bottom of the women’s bracket that has the marquee matchup: Venus vs. Kerber for the likely chance at Serena in the final, setting up either a late-career sister slam or a revenge match.
The stakes at the semifinals cannot be bigger for the resurgent superstar Venus and the recent upstart Kerber. Let’s look at how they match up.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Kerber has won three of their five career meetings from 2009-14, but it’s only a partial window that is relative to Wimbledon 2016.
For instance, in 2009, Venus was on the outside edge of her peak years, playing her last Wimbledon final, while Kerber was a 21-year-old prospect trying to make her way as a strong regular on tour. Venus defeated her easily in the first round of the Australian Open.
In 2012, they had three meetings, all won by Kerber on clay (Madrid), grass (London Olympics) and hard courts (U.S. Open). Venus was no longer near her championship form after slowing down due to her ongoing battles with fatigue and soreness from Sjogren's syndrome. That year, Kerber showed her potential as a major champion with a trip to Wimbledon’s semifinals.
Their last meeting was Venus’ excellent run at the 2014 Rogers Cup where she dispatched Kerber in three thrilling sets on her way to the final. The takeaway was that Venus could still be lethal when healthy and playing her brand of offense.
But a lot has happened in the succeeding two years, and their head-to-head history can only be taken with a grain of salt. That 2012 meeting on the Olympics grass saw Kerber win in two tiebreakers, and that might have given her the confidence that she could compete with a great player like Venus. Venus has those other five Wimbledon titles for her own assurance.
Venus at 2016 Wimbledon
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It has not been easy for Venus to win each of her five matches. She defeated a fairly mediocre section of the draw with wins over Donna Vekic, Maria Sakkari, Daria Kasatkina, Carla Suarez Navarro and Yaroslava Shvedova.
Only Suarez Navarro is a proven seeded player, and Venus got through on the strength of winning the first-set tiebreaker and being more efficient with winners and unforced errors (24-20) to her opponent’s (16-21).
Otherwise, Venus was not able to overpower the error-prone Vekic.
She was evenly matched with Sakkari’s impressive 34-17 winners to unforced errors count to take the three-set win.
Venus survived a 10-8 third set over Kasatkina.
Her quarterfinal win saw her win with patience rather than power while the risk-taking Shvedova collapsed after a 5-2 first-set tiebreaker advantage.
Credit Venus for being smarter and more resilient than her opponents, but it’s also evident that she’s not overpowering her younger opponents. There’s always the Venus legacy and still a lot of talent in her 36-year-old efforts, but she’s also using smoke and mirrors.
Kerber at 2016 Wimbledon
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The No. 4 seed Kerber came into Wimbledon with more downs than ups after her epic title at the Australian Open title. She was a first-round victim at the French Open, and there were trouble spots with challenging opponents in her Wimbledon draw.
She’s responded beautifully to each match, and her return to the Wimbledon semifinals guarantees that she regains her No. 2 world ranking. (If Serena Williams falls in the semifinals and Kerber wins Wimbledon, Kerber will be the new No. 1.)
Kerber thrashed Laura Robson by matching winners, 15 apiece, but having only seven unforced errors to Robson’s 32. Kerber then followed up that impressive control with only five total unforced errors in the second round, also an easy straight-sets affair.
Two more routine wins set up her quarterfinals showdown with No. 5 Simona Halep, and the two defensive-minded stars dueled through two grueling sets, ultimately won by Kerber 7-5, 7-6(2). It was a great return display from Kerber who won 54 percent of her receiving points and seven of 11 breakpoints.
It’s also the kind of effort she will need twice more if she is to win Wimbledon. The German is using her legs and efficiency in producing another special major run, and she looks like she has a legitimate chance to add to her growing star.
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The Biggest X-Factors
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Energy. Both players have used a lot of energy in different ways. Venus has needed to pull out out more sets and longer time on court. This can be physically and emotionally draining, and she will need to win shorter points against the retrieving Kerber. Will she be fresh and consistent with her veteran legs and stamina?
Though Kerber has not dropped a set, she needs fresh legs to grind and track down Venus' big blasts. It's not easy to win match after match without a big serve or offensive clout. She needs top energy to line her defensive and offensive shots over and over again to the aging American.
The other curious element to this match is how often Venus and Serena are positioned to avenging each other's big losses. The latest famous example was when Venus twice took down U.S. Open finalist Roberta Vinci in China last autumn, weeks after Vinci had shocked the world by defeating Serena. The first encounter in Wuhan even witnessed a testy exchange between the two at matchpoint.
Will Venus be extra locked in knowing that Kerber was Serena's conqueror in Melbourne? For sure, her own legendary history at Wimbledon and a place in the final is all the motivation she needs, but it's often been the case that someone like Kerber must inevitably deal with the pride of both Venus and Serena. It's on the table once again.
Venus Will Win Wimbledon Semifinal If...
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Venus has lived up to her seeding and endured the ups and downs to reach the semifinals, but she must raise her game a notch to defeat Kerber. She is no longer the explosive, younger champion that she was last decade, especially with her groundstrokes.
U.S. Fed Cup captain and ESPN analyst Mary Jo Fernandez recognized that Venus was a superior mover when she was younger, and Fernandez assessed Venus’ task on ESPN: "Her movement was unbelievable. She doesn't have that any more. But today she makes the most out of what she's still got: power, her great play at net and her long reach."
Venus must serve big, create short points and more winners than she did against prior opponents last week. She has averaged 99-105 mph on her first serve and 80-82 mph on her second serve, good but only averaging a few aces in her matches. She needs more free points, and she cannot trade long rallies against Kerber’s greater retrieving and baseline endurance.
But Venus still has that beautiful backhand, and if it’s dealing with hot efficiency, it’s a weapon that could be trouble for the flatter, lefty forehand of Kerber. The key is that she must be confident and precise to hit hard and locate her shots to take the fight to Kerber’s grinding tactics.
Furthermore, Venus must set the tone early and win in two sets. A third set would more likely produce tired errors, and players like Kerber are better able to lock into the patterns and pace of big servers.
A great day at the office can happen for Venus, and even if she is the underdog, Kerber is hardly a dominating force. Venus needs to match her consistency and capitalize on breakpoints.
Kerber Will Win Wimbledon If...
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Kerber is playing well right now, and if she continues her momentum from the Halep match, she will win.
Along with her comfort in executing a conservative game plan, Kerber is becoming more experienced and comfortable in playing big matches. That will be a huge asset during tough, potential turning points in the semifinals.
She also needs to move her serve around to keep Venus from return strikes. If she controls that third ball, she will back up her serve and put pressure on Venus. Furthermore, Venus’ serve can be vulnerable now, and the American will feel more pressure holding her own if she can’t attack Kerber.
Kerber is also good in passing opponents at the net. She likes lining her flat shots from sharp angles, and she will make it difficult for Venus to establish rhythm at the net.
If Kerber keeps her composure and belief that she is now the better player, and if she plays with the same hunger and opportunity that she did in Melbourne, she will win going away.
Prediction
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Right now Kerber is in her prime and playing consistent, confident grass-court tennis at Wimbledon. That trumps Venus’ five past Wimbledon titles, and Venus, for all her moxie, will find it difficult to run with Kerber.
Kerber is much more likely to play consistent tennis and put the onus on Venus to be great with her offense.
We could see a very competitive first set, and if Venus pulls it out, we could see a classic. On the other hand, Kerber’s not the kind of player who blows away her opponents. When she’s on top of her game, it’s death by paper cuts.
Overall, Kerber’s baseline efficiency and defense will be too strong of a wall for Venus to climb. It could go to three sets, but we will back Kerber to finish in two solid sets. Kerber will march on to meet Serena in the final.
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