Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 14 Buzz, Rumors
Baseball's upcoming All-Star break presents an opportunity for the vast majority of coaches and players to take a step back, clear their minds and spend some much needed time with friends and family. But for general managers, the season's unofficial midway point of the regular season is anything but a break.
Decisions have to be made as to whether a team will be buying or selling at the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, and they'll be working the phones trying to consummate deals—or at least lay the groundwork for a move in the next few weeks.
Speaking of deals, can teams in need of relief help find a reasonably priced option on the trade market? Will the allure of what could be stop a contender from dealing some of its best young talent to make a run at a World Series crown? Are there enough All-Stars?
We'll hit on all that and more in this week's edition of fact or fiction.
Fact: The Yankees Are Going to Sell, Sell, Sell at the Trade Deadline
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Flummoxed by his team's consistent inconsistency, New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman isn't ruling anything out as the trade deadline approaches, as he explained to ESPN's Buster Olney during a podcast appearance on Tuesday.
“The clock is ticking,” Cashman said, “and the more that we stay in this mode that we’re currently in, I think it’s going to force us into some tough decisions that we didn’t want to be in. There’s some time on the clock, but it’s getting late, as people would say.”
According to Olney, the Yankees have already begun listening to offers regarding their veteran talent. Aside from the usual suspects—Carlos Beltran, Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller—players like Brett Gardner, Brian McCann and CC Sabathia are generating varying degrees of interest around the league.
With the Yankees looking to get younger and more athletic as they turn their roster over in the next few years, adding prospects to a farm system that includes high-upside players such as James Kaprielian, Aaron Judge, Jorge Mateo, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino makes a lot of sense.
At this point, it would be surprising if the Yankees didn't eat some of the money left on those veteran deals in order to facilitate a better return in trades and speed up the transition process. Essentially, the team sounds like it's committed to rebuilding on the fly.
Fiction: The Rangers Wouldn't Trade Their Best Young Talent
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ESPN's Jim Bowden tweeted that Tampa Bay and Texas have spoken about a deal that would send Rays starter Jake Odorizzi to the Rangers in exchange for a bat, with Lewis Brinson, Joey Gallo and Jurickson Profar known to interest the Rays.
In a day and age when everyone overvalues prospects to the point of lunacy, the mere suggestion that one or more of those prospects could be in play has, predictably, sent some fans into a frenzy. You need to only look at the replies to Bowden's tweet to see what I'm talking about.
But as Evan Grant explained to a reader who asked which prospect he'd trade (and what he'd want in return) during a chat for the Dallas Morning News last month, trading some of the team's young talent isn't as crazy an idea as some believe.
"Hey, for the right fit, I'd trade Gallo or Profar or just about anybody other than [Nomar] Mazara at this point. Getting the right fit is the big issue. It would have to be somebody the team controlled for multiple years. It would have to be somebody who fills a need for this year and beyond. To me that screams catcher or starting pitcher.
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Odorizzi, a 26-year-old starter who is under team control through 2019, fits that description.
While he's not an ace, Odorizzi has proven himself to be a reliable mid-rotation starter, pitching to a combined 3.87 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over 77 starts dating back to the start of the 2014 season. He's also got terrific control, averaging just over three strikeouts for every walk he issues.
Now, I'm not advocating for or against a deal that would send, say, Gallo to the Rays for Odorizzi. Other pieces would likely have to be involved to make it work. But the notion that the Rangers won't trade any of their best young talent to improve their chances of reaching (and winning) a World Series, both in 2016 and the future, is flat-out wrong.
Fact: Adding a Reliever Will Be More Costly Than People Think
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The narrative surrounding the upcoming trade deadline for the past month or so has been how expensive adding a starting pitcher is going to be. That still figures to be the case, given the lack of quality starters set to hit free agency after the season and the currently limited supply of obtainable starters.
But we shouldn't take that to mean that it won't be costly to upgrade in other areas, including the bullpen.
A trio of contending clubs—St. Louis, San Francisco and Seattle—look like teams that are—or soon will be—in the market for late-inning help, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch), the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman) and Larry Stone of the Seattle Times, respectively.
Increased demand isn't going to help drive down the costs of adding a quality reliever, which as Schulman points out, is already rather high. That's especially true if you're talking about an elite option like New York Yankees setup man Andrew Miller, who could potentially be the most valuable reliever made available.
"If the Giants trade for Miller, I guarantee when you see the list of prospects going back to the Bronx your eyes will bug out. To get 39-year-old Fernando Rodney from San Diego, the Marlins had to trade a 20-year-old pitcher, Chris Paddack, who had a 0.95 ERA and struck out 48 batters in 28 1/3 innings in low-A ball.
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So buckle up and throw on some safety goggles if you're a fan of a team in the market for an arm. Adding the pitcher—or pitchers—the team needs is going to be an expensive proposition.
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Fiction: The Mets Don't Need to Add Another Starting Pitcher
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Matt Harvey's season could be over due to shoulder issues, while both Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard have painful bone spurs in their pitching elbows. That leaves Bartolo Colon and Jacob deGrom as the only starters for the New York Mets who aren't currently dealing with medical issues.
That should be a concern. Because it's not like the Mets are knee-deep in quality replacements.
Could Zack Wheeler, who has been sidelined for more than a year after undergoing Tommy John surgery, deliver a stellar performance in his return from the procedure as Harvey did last year? Sure. But that's not guaranteed, and you can be sure that the Mets will be looking to limit his workload.
After Wheeler, the team's options are mediocre at best.
Seth Lugo has two big league innings on his resume. Logan Verrett has been far more effective as a reliever than as a starter over parts of two major league seasons. Rafael Montero has pitched to a 7.20 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over 16 Triple-A starts after missing nearly all of 2015 with shoulder problems.
You get the point.
While it's true that a team doesn't need a rotation full of aces to stay in contention or go on a deep playoff run—see Kansas City last year for proof of that—the Mets don't have the kind of pitching depth that some would lead you to believe.
If Harvey is indeed out for the year (or any significant amount of time), the Mets have to explore bringing in an arm from outside the organization to bolster their rotation.
Fact: It's Time to Expand All-Star Rosters
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In the past, there's usually been one or two finalists for MLB's All-Star final vote that you could argue really didn't belong in the Midsummer Classic. That's simply not the case this year, as all 10 of the players vying for a trip to San Diego this coming Tuesday are worthy of selection.
In case you haven't been paying attention, this year's nominees (per MLB.com) are:
American League
- 2B Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers
- 3B Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
- 2B Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
- OF Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays
- OF George Springer, Houston Astros
National League
- 1B Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
- OF Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
- 3B Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks
- OF Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
- SS Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
Now, it's very likely that more than two of those players will ultimately be included in the festivities. Injuries will assuredly knock a few All-Star selections out of the game, and their replacements figure to come from this pool of talent.
But while home-field advantage in the World Series is on the line, the All-Star Game remains an opportunity for MLB to expand its reach, to command the attention of the casual fan and those who may not yet have come around to loving the game the way we do.
It's hard to argue that leaving any of these 10 players out of the game—or a young stud like Carlos Correa—helps to accomplish that.
Certainly, you don't want to diminish the prestige of being named an All-Star by including too many players. And I'm not sure what the magic number is that would allow for more inclusion without cheapening the honor. Should each league have a 40-man roster? Perhaps.
Whatever the magic number is, it's clear that unless you're Bryce Harper or David Ortiz, it's not 34.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through games of July 6.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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