Wimbledon 2016: Bold Predictions for the Second Week
In many ways, it feels like there are no more bold predictions left after Novak Djokovic and Garbine Muguruza were defeated in the first week at Wimbledon 2016.
The French Open champions were vulnerable on grass as were other power baseliners like Stan Wawrinka and Dominic Thiem, who also lost on sodden, slicker, faster conditions.
Familiar superstars marched on including Serena Williams, Roger Federer and Andy Murray. Each of them has to feel like the title is ripe for picking, that is if they can avoid other tough competitors who stand in their way.
Our second-week look at “Bold Predictions” scrutinizes the most interesting potential matches that have a strong scent of upset. It will also be a week of opportunity for a few young players to make a splash and challenge for the Wimbledon title.
If we nail two or three of these picks, it will be a successful forecast as Wimbledon promises more wacky surprises and championship moments.
Like Federer said in his Wimbledon third-round, post-match interview, "margins are small."
Best Match of the Tournament: Andy Murray to Survive Nick Kyrgios
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It wouldn’t be shocking if Nick Kyrgios defeated Andy Murray in the fourth round, but it would be surprising.
Consider the advantages that Murray has: He’s a former Wimbledon champion and winner of many big titles, he has the fervent home crowd advantage, and he’s got a boost of energetic and tactical support with the reunion of coach Ivan Lendl.
Murray also knows that Novak Djokovic is out of the tournament and that Roger Federer has been vulnerable with injuries as he tries to regain his form just in time. Will there again be a better opportunity for the Scot to nail down his third major?
Kyrgios is 0-4 against Murray having lost 11 of 12 sets dating back almost two years. The last three have been at the other three major stages; Murray has proved to be better under big-match pressure so far in their matches.
But Kyrgios should get a lot of help from the skidding grass with his serve and power. He’s progressing in 2016, and he should feel that he has everything to gain. If he defeats Murray, he could conceivably win the whole tournament.
That is if Kyrgios can keep his composure and head. There will be times versus Murray that he is utterly dominant, and Murray will have to fight to send it to a fifth set. There, Murray will pull out a gutty win for the best match of the tournament.
It’s hard to predict something like a 10-8 fifth set, but why not? Kyrgios could conceivably deplete Murray’s run at the championship, but Murray will survive this one.
Dominika Cibulkova to Defeat Agnieszka Radwanska
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A battle of two smaller players features favorite No. 3-seed Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Dominika Cibulkova. On paper, Radwanska is returning as a Wimbledon semifinalist and has been perhaps the most consistent player of the past year. She has outstanding control of her shots and rarely beats herself.
Cibulkova has had a few streaky patches of brilliant play in her career, most notably her run to the 2014 Australian Open final. She’s very capable of winning this match if she is locked in the way she has played in dismantling her three previous opponents. She’s not going to get overpowered by Radwanska, and she will be the one hitting most of the winners.
The case for Cibulkova has been growing in recent months. She won the Aegon International at Eastbourne, England, on grass last week, her second title in four finals appearances in 2016. She's in the top 20 and playing strong tennis right now.
If Cibulkova pulls off this upset, the path will favor her to get to the semifinals.
Roger Federer Will Not Make It to the Semifinals
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The championship door opened up for everyone in the men’s bracket after two-time defending champion Novak Djokovic went down in defeat. To many, the big winner might be Roger Federer, who lost the previous two Wimbledon finals to Djokovic. If he keeps winning, Federer would not have to face his Serbian rival in the semifinals.
But getting there will be trickier than most people might believe, as he is set to play a strong opponent in the fourth round and perhaps the quarterfinals. Federer is not at the level he was the past two years after coming off injuries and fewer matches this spring. He will not make it to the semifinals.
First up, American Steve Johnson is a formidable foe on grass. He won the Aegon Open in Nottingham, England, last week, and at the first week of Wimbledon, he defeated talented players in Jeremy Chardy and Grigor Dimitrov. Johnson was able to win several tight sets, including three of four tiebreakers. He has a good serve and quick power on grass, which is more deceptive when the ball stays low.
If Federer does survive that one, he will face Marin Cilic or Kei Nishikori, the former a powerful figure with one of the best grass games in the world and the latter with the athleticism that has troubled Federer in a few matches over the years.
Cilic blew through Federer at the 2014 U.S. Open on his way to his career highlight, and he’s the more likely player to impose his game and get the upset.
Part of this prediction is predicated on the fatigue that could add up for the 34-year-old Federer in getting to the semifinals. He’s had a couple days off, but the games and sets could take a heavier toll by midweek. Federer will be out before Friday.
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Coco Vandeweghe Will Scare Serena Williams but Lose in Three Thrilling Sets
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Serena Williams might not be a lock, but she’s still the favorite to win Wimbledon, so it’s not really bold to predict that she will win the tournament. Instead, we will pinpoint a very difficult match, one that could be her biggest scare on her way to that 22nd major title.
There’s a great chance that Serena will play fellow American Coco Vandeweghe in the quarterfinals. Vandeweghe has a lot of power and a strong chance to defeat anyone on grass. She has the competitive fire and boldness to believe that she is the better player, even if she isn’t.
But on one great day, Vandeweghe could very well defeat Serena. She could really roll with a fast start that begins with her big serve. Serena will need to match service holds, survive at least one tiebreaker and get through three sets.
In the end, Serena has been here before, and it’s easier to see Vandeweghe play some loose points at critical times. Experience will be the difference, and Serena will get through—eventually to the final.
Jiri Vesely to Serve His Way into the Semifinals
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The third quarter of the men’s draw will have a surprise semifinalist, that much we know, and there are different cases to be made for each of the remaining four there.
Tomas Berdych has the experience playing into second weeks and did have that trip to the 2010 Wimbledon final, even if it lasted no longer than a song and a dance.
Lucas Pouille is playing the role of a sneaky, rising star, showing he is more than a clay-courter, and No.-19 seed Bernard Tomic has held his game game together in surviving mediocre opponents.
Instead, we will back the underdog of the quarter, 22-year-old Jiri Vesely. He’s a strong, lefty server at 6’6”, with the power that has quietly ambushed his three opponents in straight sets—including three tiebreakers over No. 8-seed Dominic Thiem in the second round.
Like a young Goran Ivanisevic, Vesely can be a very tough nut to crack on grass, and his confidence is rising.
Perhaps Vesely’s growth hit an important level when he defeated Novak Djokovic at Monte Carlo nearly three months ago. While many dismissed the match as a Djokovic slip-up, Vesely played aggressive tennis and earned the win.
After the match, Djokovic told the media, as reported in ATP World Tour, that “I think he played very solid. He was serving very big. He was playing tactically good and aggressive."
It would still be an upset, but it's a more reasonable bet than Jerzy Janowicz crashing the semifinals in 2013. Don’t dismiss his chances, especially if he knows that he is ready to defeat fellow Czech and Davis Cup teammate Berdych. That will be the bigger step to set him up as a quarterfinals favorite.
Madison Keys Loses to Williams Sisters Tag Team
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In the final phases of Martina Hingis’ singles reign, the five-time major champion got a look at the future in the 1999 U.S. Open final when she lost to a 17-year-old named Serena Williams.
Part of the story was that Hingis got worn down by Venus Williams in the semifinal before losing to Serena. Their tag-team of power would soon eclipse Hingis’ brief run of glory at the top.
In some ways, history could repeat itself if powerful young Madison Keys gets to the semifinals at Wimbledon, battles through an aging Venus Williams and is a little too spent to stop Serena from holding up her seventh Wimbledon title and 22nd major title.
It's not an easy road for Keys by any means. She would have to defeat Simona Halep and perhaps Angelique Kerber just to get to the semifinals against the possible Venus match. Then to follow that up against Serena? It's the toughest road remaining for any contender.
But we will still back Keys to face Serena, even if she comes up a little short. The future is arriving.
At least Keys will bounce back with better chances at majors in the future, but Wimbledon is turning out to be an improved showcase for American tennis, which has already gotten a jolt from Sam Querrey’s upset of Novak Djokovic and coach John McEnroe’s efforts to help Canadian Milos Raonic win a major title.
Milos Raonic Will Win Wimbledon
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Milos Raonic will win Wimbledon. It’s more possible for plenty of other contenders now that Novak Djokovic has checked out of London.
Raonic should be able to overpower David Goffin and serve his way past either Nicolas Mahut or Sam Querrey. Defeating Marin Cilic in the semifinals would be an enormous task if that matchup happens.
But of course, defeating Andy Murray in the final would be the crowning achievement of his career. Raonic might be able to get it done on grass with that cannon serve, something he probably should have accomplished a couple weeks ago in losing to Murray in the Queen’s Club final after he was up a set and a break.
It won’t be a pretty method to victory, more like watching the 1992 final when Andre Agassi had to wade through aces from Goran Ivanisevic to win the title. It was a classic moment but a match that lacked flow and a lot of rallies, something quite common when Pete Sampras took over for the rest of the 1990s.
Raonic was close to defeating Murray at the 2016 Australian Open before falling in five sets with no help from his injured ribs. This time around, he has the faster surface and the right attack mentality with coach John McEnroe. (The final could also be hyped as McEnroe vs Lendl, and of course, the former was more successful than the latter as a player at Wimbledon.)
Imagine a champion other than Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Murray at Wimbledon. You’ve got to go back to Lleyton Hewitt in 2002. Now it’s possible that Milos Raonic opens up a gap for upcoming contenders.
This is not a lock by any means, yes we are hedging, but it’s bold and reasonable enough to pick Raonic in four sets.
Epic Wimbledon Story Will Be Created at Wimbledon 2016
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Sometimes we experience something very special in watching Wimbledon that will stay with us for as long as we watch and love tennis. It doesn't happen every year, and over time the real great ones overshadow the merely good or forgettable sagas.
Was it 1994 or 1998 that Pete Sampras defeated Goran Ivanisevic in the Wimbledon final? Both. Sampras over Cedric Pioline in 1997? Yawn. Was there much to remember in thinking back to Roger Federer's titles in 2004-05? Roddick was a stiffer challenge the first time, but the tournaments were forgettable. Rafael Nadal defeated Tomas Berdych in 2010, but it's emotional impact has faded like newsprint. And so on.
Or we could get a crazy plot twist like 2001 when a Swiss kid named Federer defeated the mighty Sampras and his Wimbledon dominance of seven titles in eight years.
This was topped days later by a wild card champion named Ivanisevic, who turned a five-set thriller over Pat Cash into one of the great feel-good stories in sporting history. It would be the Croat's only major title after years of frustrating futility just when it seemed that injuries and discouragement had fatally finished off his career.
Now 2016 has the kind of vibe that made 2001 so memorable. It was merely foreshadowed when an unassuming American veteran eliminated Novak Djokovic. There are incredible players and storylines still to be written, and this could turn out to be a tournament to win for the ages.
Consider which of these stories would make indelible history:
- Roger Federer wins his first major title in four years after being sidelined by various injuries and setbacks for most of 2016.
- Andy Murray's reunion with coach Ivan Lendl pays off with a Wimbledon title and everyone from Dunblane, Scotland, to Southern England goes bonkers.
- A brand new rising champion from the maligned "Lost Generation" wins Wimbledon. Milos Raonic, David Goffin, Bernard Tomic and Kei Nishikori are alive and kicking.
- Nick Kyrgios turns tennis upside down, or rather "Down Under," as he storms to the title with all of Australia in a forgiving mood. He even hugs Pat Cash. The revolution has arrived.
- Serena Williams shows that nobody can ever doubt a champion's heart even if aging is the one rival she cannot stop.
- Is everyone ready for Madison Keys? Wait, didn't everyone say last month that Garbine Muguruza was ready to take over tennis?
- Maybe we get a real shocker in the men's or women's bracket with a championship final nobody expects. The details will always be a surprise, sometimes to savor.
Our final bold prediction is that we will get one or more of these special stories that will live on in the years to come. Keep watching, because the sum of these remaining matches will be a reward for all tennis fans.
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