2016 MLB All-Star Game Final Vote: Odds of Each Candidate Winning a Spot
After months of voting, only two spots remain unfilled for the 87th annual MLB All-Star Game, which will be played Tuesday, July 12, at 7:30 p.m. ET in San Diego's Petco Park. Fans have until Friday, July 8, at 4 p.m. ET to vote for the players they believe deserve to join the festivities.
For the first time since 2009, a pitcher doesn't appear on the ballot, which is comprised of both seasoned veterans with previous All-Star experience and up-and-coming youngsters looking for their first taste of the Midsummer Classic.
Per MLB.com, this year's nominees are:
American League
- 2B Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers
- 3B Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
- 2B Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
- OF Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays
- OF George Springer, Houston Astros
National League
- 1B Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
- OF Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
- 3B Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks
- OF Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
- SS Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
While a player's performance over the first half of the regular season was taken into account when coming up with the odds that follow, the vote is a popularity contest. That doesn't bode well for players like Lamb and Longoria.
We'll start with the players facing the longest odds of winning this year's final vote, alternating between leagues, until we get to the overwhelming favorites to represent their teams and earn the right to be called All-Stars.
American League: OF Michael Saunders, Toronto Blue Jays
1 of 10
2016 Stats: .293/.367/.547, 41 XBH (15 HR), 38 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: None
Michael Saunders couldn't care less how he gets to the All-Star Game—so long as he gets there.
"It's a huge honor," Saunders told MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm about making the cut for the final vote. "It's a dream going up, you get to watch the All-Star Game on TV and it crosses your mind at some point how cool it would be to be able to play in that game and represent the American League."
Healthy for the first time in years, the 29-year-old has finally put together the kind of All-Star-caliber season that Seattle patiently waited six years for in his second season with Toronto. Not only is he hitting for average and power, but he also sits among the league leaders in both slugging percentage and OPS (.910).
While he's deserving of a spot and will have all of Canada behind him, Saunders doesn't have the name recognition to beat out the rest of the field for a trip to San Diego.
Odds: 30-1
National League: 3B Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks
2 of 10
2016 Stats: .292/.367/.617, 45 XBH (19 HR), 59 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: None
On numbers alone, Jake Lamb deserves to win the final vote in the National League.
Entering play Tuesday night, Lamb was either tied with or led each of his NL counterparts in six categories, per Arizona's official Twitter account: RBI, home runs (tied with Colorado's Trevor Story), slugging percentage (his .617 mark leads the NL), extra-base hits, OPS and wins above replacement.
But he's not going to. Between a lack of fan support (Arizona ranks 21st in home attendance this year, according to ESPN), a lack of national attention and the team's disappointing season so far, Lamb won't be representing the Diamondbacks on this year's NL squad.
A spot in the Home Run Derby, however, could be in the 25-year-old's future.
Odds: 30-1
American League: 3B Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
3 of 10
2016 Stats: .277/.329/.517, 41 XBH (18 HR), 45 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: Three
Unbelievable as it seems, Evan Longoria hasn't represented Tampa Bay in the All-Star Game since 2010, the last of three consecutive appearances for the 2008 American League Rookie of the Year.
Part of that has to do with the fact that the hot corner has been a stacked position in the AL for years. In the past, players such as Adrian Beltre, Miguel Cabrera and Alex Rodriguez stood between the nine-year veteran and the Midsummer Classic. Today, it's the likes of Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado.
The other part is a lack of support in Tampa Bay. The Rays are consistently near the bottom of yearly attendance figures, and that lack of local support overwhelms whatever advantage Longoria's name and track record of success might give him.
Odds: 20-1
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National League: OF Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers
4 of 10
2016 Stats: .322/.378/.533, 30 XBH (13 HR), 44 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: Six
There's a large amount of fans that will never vote for Ryan Braun because of his use of performance-enhancing drugs in the past and the arrogance he showed in denying his transgressions before he couldn't deny them any longer.
For that reason alone, Braun nearly wound up with the lowest odds of winning the final vote in either league.
But he does have name recognition, a rabid fanbase supporting him in Milwaukee and, like it or not, the numbers deserving of a trip to San Diego. That said, the off-field issues make him unlikely to be voted into his seventh All-Star Game.
Odds: 25-1
American League: 2B Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers
5 of 10
2016 Stats: .288/.348/.493, 35 XBH (16 HR), 52 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: Four
Ian Kinsler has had a terrific career—perhaps one worthy of Cooperstown—and, in his age-34 season, is putting up some of the best numbers of that career. Aside from his production, what's working in Kinsler's favor is that he'll likely have the support of fans from both Detroit and Texas.
He spent the first eight years of his career with the Rangers, making three All-Star appearances in the process.
Without a player in the running for the final vote, Texas fans could stuff the virtual ballot box for Kinsler, especially if they think doing so will keep Houston's George Springer from making his first All-Star appearance.
But truth be told, Kinsler is kind of a boring candidate. He does a lot of things well, but he is largely viewed as a secondary (or tertiary) piece of the puzzle for the Tigers, with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton and the currently injured J.D. Martinez all garnering more national attention for their play.
Odds: 15-1
National League: OF Starling Marte, Pittsburgh Pirates
6 of 10
2016 Stats: .320/.365/.471, 29 XBH (6 HR), 31 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: None
With Andrew McCutchen having a down year, more of the spotlight in Pittsburgh has been on Starling Marte, one of the game's best all-around players.
A premier defender, the 27-year-old is among the National League batting leaders while posting solid on-base and slugging percentages and causing problems when he gets on base, swiping 25 bases in 31 attempts.
But he's not a household name, and he is lacking in the traditional run-producing categories (home runs and RBI). Coupled with Pittsburgh's struggles to remain above .500, Marte's odds of joining Pirates closer Mark Melancon at the All-Star Game aren't great.
Odds: 15-1
American League: OF George Springer, Houston Astros
7 of 10
2016 Stats: .265/.362/.481, 33 XBH (19 HR), 50 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: None
Had George Springer not suffered through a brutal June that saw him hit just .202 with a .696 OPS, he might have forced his way onto the American League All-Star team as a reserve. Seeing as how he didn't crack the top 15 in outfield voting, there's little chance he'd have been selected as a starter.
While he's not running as often as he did in the past, the 26-year-old has already surpassed his home run total from a year ago (16) and looks poised to set career highs in a number of categories, provided he can stay on the field.
"He's exactly the kind of exciting all-around athlete that this game was designed to highlight," wrote Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter, who believes Springer was the AL's most egregious snub.
Odds: 5-1
National League: SS Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
8 of 10
2016 Stats: .263/.331/.542, 41 XBH (19 HR), 50 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: None
Trevor Story captivated the baseball universe to start the season, hitting seven home runs in his first week in Colorado and 10 altogether in April, tying the rookie record set by the Chicago White Sox's Jose Abreu in 2014.
While he's cooled off a bit since, that kind of early-season publicity could prove invaluable. Story won't be stumping on the campaign trail to try to garner additional support, telling Nick Groke of the Denver Post that he had no plans to lobby for votes. "I hope they enjoy the way I play,” he said of fans.
Casual fans and those without a representative from their favorite teams could be drawn to Story due to his early-season production and gaudy power numbers. Others, however, won't vote for him because he plays his home games in Coors Field, which some believe gives him an unfair advantage.
That split will cost Story a chance at joining his Rockies teammates, Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez, in San Diego.
Odds: 5-1
American League: 2B Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox
9 of 10
2016 Stats: .308/.371/.446, 29 XBH (8 HR), 31 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: Four
In the 15 years that the final vote has been in existence, a middle infielder has never won a spot in the Midsummer Classic. Dustin Pedroia is about to change all of that.
He has the name recognition, the lengthy track record of success and the respect of fans around the game, even in New York. We also know that the Fenway faithful come out in droves to support their own, evidenced by Boston having four starters on this year's American League squad.
"He's hit over .300 for the better part of the whole season," Red Sox manager John Farrell told MLB.com's Mark Newman of his second baseman. “... In many ways, he's our de facto captain. What he means to us, the way he goes about the game, the way he plays it, he sets an example for all of us. I'm hopeful that he's part of that group in San Diego."
Odds: 3-2
National League: 1B Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
10 of 10
2016 Stats: .297/.398/.509, 39 XBH (10 HR), 45 RBI
Career All-Star Appearances: None
The best player on the best team in the National League West this season hasn't been Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner or Brandon Crawford. It's Brandon Belt.
In the midst of a career-best season, the 28-year-old has been San Francisco's most consistent hitter, leading the NL in doubles (26) and sitting among the league leaders in on-base percentage and OPS.
Surprisingly, according to MLB.com's Mark Newman, the Giants have had four players in the final vote before and, despite having a passionate, technologically savvy fanbase, never won. But it's an even year, and we know what that means—the Giants win.
Odds: 3-2
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through games of July 5.
Which candidate gets your vote? Let us know in the comments section below and on Twitter (@RickWeinerBR)
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