Projecting the Top 15 MLB Trade Targets Available in 2016 Trade Season
The month of July has arrived, which means the MLB trade market is set to kick into high gear ahead of the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.
There is still a lot to be sorted out over the next few weeks, as teams on the fringe of contention are forced to make the tough decision between buying, selling or standing pat.
While those eventual decisions could alter the trade market as more teams become clear-cut sellers, for now we can already get a good read on what the trade block is expected to look like.
Ahead we've provided a look at the top 15 MLB trade targets for the 2016 deadline, with players ranked based on the contributions they could make to a contender and the value they provide from a financial standpoint.
We've also given a quick rundown of others players who could be made available as the month progresses and a few honorable mentions who did not quite crack the top 15.
This list took some last-minute tweaking after Fernando Rodney (SD to MIA) and Bud Norris (ATL to LAD) were both traded on Thursday, as both players were originally set to be included among our top 15 trade targets.
Still Not 100 Percent Convinced They'll Be Available
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The following players are not yet included on this list due to questions about whether they will in fact be made available:
- RP Dellin Betances, NYY
- 1B Chris Carter, MIL
- OF Khris Davis, OAK
- RP Sean Doolittle, OAK
- RP Jeanmar Gomez, PHI
- RF Carlos Gonzalez, COL
- SP Sonny Gray, OAK
- RP Daniel Hudson, ARI
- OF Jon Jay, SD (injured)
- RP Jeremy Jeffress, MIL
- OF Matt Kemp, SD (lack of interest)
- RP Jake McGee, COL (injured)
- RP Andrew Miller, NYY
- 1B Wil Myers, SD
- SS Eduardo Nunez, MIN
- SP Jake Odorizzi, TB
- SP Drew Pomeranz, SD
- RF Josh Reddick, OAK (injured)
- SP Tyson Ross, SD (injured)
- RP Joe Smith, LAA (injured)
- RP Will Smith, MIL
- RP Huston Street, LAA
- SS Jonathan Villar, MIL
- RP Brad Ziegler, ARI
Others Likely to Be on the Move
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These players have a solid chance of being traded before the Aug. 1 deadline, but they didn't quite crack the top 15 in our rankings:
Position Players
- OF Peter Bourjos, PHI
- IF Jed Lowrie, OAK
- 3B Trevor Plouffe, MIN
- OF Melvin Upton Jr., SD
Pitchers
- RP Fernando Abad, MIN
- SP Andrew Cashner, SD
- SP Jhoulys Chacin, LAA
- SP Matt Garza, MIL
- RP David Hernandez, PHI
- RP Kevin Jepsen, MIN
- RP Boone Logan, COL
- SP Ricky Nolasco, MIN
- RP Fernando Salas, LAA
15. Nick Markakis, RF, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats
| 338 | .257/.334/.351 | 76 | 22 | 2 | 42 | 30 | 0 | 0.4 |
Overview
The Atlanta Braves signed Nick Markakis to a four-year, $44 million deal prior to last season, looking to add a veteran presence to their clubhouse and lineup during the rebuilding process.
The 32-year-old hit .296/.370/.376 last season and ranked fifth in the NL with 38 doubles, though he hit a career-low three home runs.
He's once again showing good gap power this year with 22 doubles, but his on-base percentage (.370 to .334) and OPS (.746 to .684) are both down significantly.
Despite that decline in offensive production, Markakis remains a useful bat thanks in large part to a .315 on-base percentage that has him on pace to drive in over 80 runs for the first time since 2009.
There should be at least a few interested clubs, provided the Braves are willing to chip in some of the $22 million he's owed over the next two seasons.
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14. Yunel Escobar, 3B, Los Angeles Angels
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2016 Stats
| 301 | .310/.359/.409 | 85 | 18 | 3 | 20 | 33 | 0 | 0.9 |
Overview
After some forgettable seasons in Toronto and Tampa Bay, Yunel Escobar put together a terrific 2015 campaign when he finished sixth in the NL with a .316 batting average.
That average came with a .790 OPS, his highest since the 2009 season, and he was shipped to the Los Angeles Angels during the offseason in exchange for pitchers Trevor Gott and Michael Brady.
The Angels offense has been a mess this season, but Escobar is putting up similar numbers with a .310 batting average and a .768 OPS as the team's everyday third baseman.
He's more than just a rental player with a $7 million team option for 2017, and he brings some versatility with experience at second, shortstop and third base.
According to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, the Angels are listening to offers on the 33-year-old and a number of teams are interested, including the San Francisco Giants.
13. Ervin Santana, SP, Minnesota Twins
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2016 Stats
Overview
For teams looking to upgrade the starting rotation, Ervin Santana is a realistic target this summer in a market thin on quality arms.
The 33-year-old is a durable, mid-level veteran capable of eating innings and providing stability to a staff that's in need of one more starter, even if he hasn't lived up to the four-year, $55 million deal he signed prior to last season.
"He's the one guy out there who could be a sure thing in the middle of the rotation. Teams like Boston, Toronto, Baltimore need that guy," one AL assistant general manager told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
Santana is owed $13.5 million each of the next two seasons with a $14 million option in 2019, so the Twins would need to kick in a good chunk of change to make him an attractive target.
Still, there are more than a few contenders that would view Santana as an upgrade in the No. 3 or No. 4 starter role.
12. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2016 Stats
Overview
The Philadelphia Phillies acquired Jeremy Hellickson in the hope that he could eat some innings, provide a veteran presence on their young staff and perhaps turn himself into a viable trade candidate when July rolled around.
He's done all of the above.
The 29-year-old has pitched at least six innings in 10 of his 16 starts, and if he can maintain his current strikeout (8.1 K/9) and walk (2.3 BB/9) rates, they would be the best full-season marks of his career.
Winning AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2011 heaped some unreasonable expectations on Hellickson that he has never been able to live up to.
He may not be a front-line starter, but he's a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm. He also has the added motivation of his impending free agency, and a strong second half could position him nicely for a multi-year deal.
11. Danny Valencia, 3B, Oakland Athletics
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2016 Stats
| 241 | .324/.373/.527 | 72 | 10 | 11 | 30 | 36 | 0 | 1.0 |
Overview
Since Danny Valencia was claimed off waivers from the Toronto Blue Jays last August, he's been the most productive hitter in the Oakland Athletics lineup.
In 442 plate appearances with the team, he's hit .307/.367/.529 with 19 doubles, 22 home runs and 67 RBI while playing first base, third base and both corner outfield spots.
The offseason trade of Brett Lawrie has opened up an everyday spot for the 31-year-old at third base, and while he's never going to be a Gold Glove winner (-13 DRS, -26.9 UZR/150), his bat has helped offset his defensive shortcomings.
Valencia will not reach free agency until after the 2017 season, so he brings a year of control beyond just being a two-month rental, but it makes sense for the A's to sell high on him now.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe lists the Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals as two teams that could make sense as a landing spot, while Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reported that the New York Mets have also inquired.
10. Derek Norris, C, San Diego Padres
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2016 Stats
| 249 | .211/.265/.390 | 48 | 11 | 10 | 26 | 33 | 3 | 1.5 |
Overview
Derek Norris had been one of the best offensive catchers in baseball the past two seasons, posting a .733 OPS and averaging 26 doubles, 12 home runs and 58 RBI while earning a place on the AL All-Star team in 2014.
He's continued to hit for power this season with 11 doubles and 10 home runs in 249 plate appearances, but his triple-slash numbers have plummeted to .211/.265/.390.
There is reason for optimism, though.
Since June 1, Norris has been steadily trending upward with a .273/.318/.506 line for the month, and overall his hard contact rate is up significantly from 28.8 percent last year to 36.5 percent this season.
It's going to take a king's ransom to pry Jonathan Lucroy away from the Milwaukee Brewers, so Norris could be an attractive alternative for someone looking to upgrade behind the plate. He's also more than just a rental player with team control through the 2018 season.
9. Zack Cozart, SS, Cincinnati Reds
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2016 Stats
| 292 | .263/.315/.466 | 70 | 19 | 11 | 32 | 43 | 1 | 2.0 |
Overview
Zack Cozart was essentially known as a glove-only shortstop for the Cincinnati Reds heading into last season, when he posted a .769 OPS with 20 extra-base hits in 214 plate appearances.
However, a knee injury limited him to just 53 games, and that wound up driving down his salary as he received a modest raise from $2.35 million to $2.925 million in his second year of arbitration.
Eugenio Suarez emerged as an everyday option in his absence, but the offseason trade of Todd Frazier sorted out what would have been a logjam. Things have become crowded once again, though, as shortstop prospect Jose Peraza was recently recalled from the minors.
Cozart has once again been terrific with the glove (7 DRS, 14.0 UZR/150), and he's well on his way to blowing past his previous career-high of 15 home runs. He also carries the added value of being arbitration-eligible for one more season, so he's not just a rental.
While he's the best shortstop option on the trade market, there's no contender with a clear-cut need at the position, so finding a landing spot is somewhat tricky at this point.
8. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats
| 36 | 1-3 | 10/12 | 2.38 | 1.382 | 19 | 47 | 34.0 | 0.6 |
Overview
If the offseason deal that saw the Houston Astros send a package of five pitchers to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for reliever Ken Giles is any indication, the Atlanta Braves can expect a hefty return for right-hander Arodys Vizcaino.
Since the start of last season, he's appeared in 71 games, posting a 1.88 ERA, 1.254 WHIP and 11.1 K/9 while converting 19 of 22 save chances.
The 25-year-old will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this coming offseason, and he's under team control through the 2019 season, which is what makes him such a valuable asset for the rebuilding Braves.
"Vizcaino is drawing intense interest, probably the most interest of any Braves player," wrote Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball.
He's always had electric stuff, and his strikeout rate has spiked from 9.9 K/9 to 12.4 K/9 this season.
His 97.5 mph average fastball velocity this season ranks seventh in the majors, and his curveball has been a dominant out-pitch with opponents batting just .145 with 37 strikeouts against it, according to Brooks Baseball.
7. Carlos Beltran, RF, New York Yankees
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2016 Stats
| 284 | .297/.338/.570 | 78 | 15 | 19 | 53 | 42 | 0 | 1.1 |
Overview
Regardless of whether the New York Yankees decide to sell aggressively at the deadline, it seems like a safe bet that veteran Carlos Beltran will be on the move before Aug. 1 if they don't make significant strides in the win-loss department.
The 39-year-old is in the final year of a three-year, $45 million deal, and his long-term replacement is waiting in Triple-A in the form of Aaron Judge, who has an .843 OPS with 14 doubles and 16 home runs for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Beltran is enjoying his best offensive season in years, putting the finishing touches on a Hall of Fame career, and he's already established himself as one of the best playoff performers in MLB history.
In 223 career postseason plate appearances, he's hit .332/.441/.674 with 13 doubles, 16 home runs and 40 RBI.
That kind of experienced clutch performer would be a welcome addition to any contender looking to bolster their offensive attack with a switch-hitting outfielder.
6. Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
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2016 Stats
| 274 | .325/.383/.554 | 81 | 16 | 13 | 44 | 34 | 6 | 2.6 |
Overview
Ryan Braun would be ranked higher if not for the financial commitment that comes with acquiring him.
The 32-year-old signed a five-year, $105 million extension in 2011 that didn't kick in until this season. Even with that deal being front-loaded, he's still owed $76 million over the next four years with a $15 million mutual option for 2021.
Despite that monetary obligation, there should still be plenty of interest for Braun, as he's once again been a dynamic offensive force.
Braun looked like a shell of his former MVP self after returning from his PED-suspension in 2014 with a career-low .266 average and .777 OPS in 2014.
He took a step forward last season with an .854 OPS that included 27 doubles and 25 home runs, and he's returned to elite form here in 2016 with a .937 OPS that ranks ninth in the NL.
The Brewers won't sell low on Braun just to unload his contract, but someone may be willing to meet their asking price to add what could be the best bat on the market.
5. Rich Hill, SP, Oakland Athletics
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2016 Stats
Overview
At this time last year, Rich Hill was a week removed from being released by the Washington Nationals and getting ready to sign with the Long Island Ducks of the independent league.
The Boston Red Sox scooped him up on a minor league deal in August, and he was back in the majors for four starts to close out the year, going 2-1 with a 1.55 ERA, 0.655 WHIP and 36 strikeouts in 29 innings.
That was enough for the 36-year-old to land a one-year, $6 million deal from the Oakland Athletics, and he was equally impressive through 11 starts to begin the 2016 season.
However, he's been sidelined since May 30 with a strained groin.
Hill is scheduled to return on Saturday against the Pittsburgh Pirates, according to Jane Lee of MLB.com, and that should put him in line to make five more starts between now and the Aug. 1 deadline.
That's plenty of time to prove he's healthy, and as long as there are no further setbacks, he could net a better return than what the A's received from the Houston Astros in exchange for Scott Kazmir last summer.
4. Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds
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2016 Stats
| 305 | .279/.325/.569 | 79 | 19 | 17 | 59 | 45 | 3 | 0.7 |
Overview
No one has boosted their trade value more this season than Jay Bruce.
The 29-year-old posted an .812 OPS and ranked 15th in the majors with 164 home runs from 2008 to 2013, making a pair of All-Star Game appearances as a consistent force in the middle of the Cincinnati Reds lineup.
His production dipped considerably during the 2014 and 2015 seasons, though.
Bruce hit .222/.288/.406 for a 90 OPS+ during that span, with injuries playing a role in his decreased production. Heading into the 2016 season, his value was arguably at an all-time low.
Three months later, he's one of the hottest names on the trade market with a career-best .893 OPS and a .569 slugging percentage that ranks ninth in the NL.
His stock has been trending upward all season, and he just wrapped up a terrific month of June that saw him post a .928 OPS with 18 extra-base hits and 26 RBI in 25 games.
He's owed the remainder of a $12.5 million salary this season and carries a $13 million option for next year that is looking more like a boon to his value than a hindrance at this point.
His current contract features a limited no-trade clause, but he recently indicated that he's willing to waive that if he's moved to a contender, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.
3. Aroldis Chapman, RP, New York Yankees
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2016 Stats
| 23 | 1-0 | 15/16 | 3.00 | 1.000 | 4 | 32 | 21.0 | 0.3 |
Overview
Rumors continue to swirl about the New York Yankees trio of bullpen aces, and Aroldis Chapman remains the most likely to be moved as he's set to become a free agent.
He's no lock to be traded, though, even if the Yankees do wind up falling out of the race and selling at the deadline.
"Signing Chapman to an extension hasn't been ruled out, either. He has said he likes New York," wrote Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball.
Holding onto Chapman and extending him a qualifying offer is also an option. That would net the Yankees a first-round pick, assuming he declines the offer and signs elsewhere.
Now with all of that in mind, there's still a good chance that someone offers up a good enough package of prospects that the Yankees pull the trigger on a trade. After all, they can still make a run at signing him in the offseason even if he's traded now.
Buster Olney of ESPN listed the Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox as teams with a need and the assets to acquire Chapman.
2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
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2016 Stats
| 290 | .303/.362/.502 | 79 | 16 | 10 | 38 | 38 | 3 | 2.0 |
Overview
Jonathan Lucroy is once again one of the game's elite catchers after a disappointing 2015 season in which he was slowed by a broken toe and concussion issues.
He was a legitimate NL MVP candidate in 2014 when he hit .301/.373/.465 with 53 doubles, 13 home runs and 69 RBI for a 6.7 WAR that netted him a fourth-place finish in the voting.
Those numbers dropped to .264/.326/.391 with 20 doubles, seven home runs and 43 RBI last year, though, and he was limited to just 103 games.
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported the rebuilding Brewers listened to offers for the 30-year-old during the offseason, but they opted against selling low, and that's proven to be the right decision. Lucroy is once again having a terrific all-around season.
His .502 slugging percentage represents a nice uptick in his power production, he's thrown out a career-best 38 percent of base stealers, and his 2.0 WAR is third among all catchers.
The on-field production is made even more valuable by his $4 million salary this season and an equally reasonable $5.25 million option for 2017.
It's going to take a serious haul to pry Lucroy away from the Brewers, but his value will likely never be higher than it is right now.
1. Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats
Overview
With youth on his side, an extremely team-friendly contract and phenomenal numbers across the board, there's not a more valuable trade chip on the market this year than Julio Teheran.
However, the question remains whether the Atlanta Braves will even entertain offers for him.
"We are not trading Teheran," one person in the Braves organization recently told Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball.
Another put the odds at "99.9 percent" of him staying in Atlanta beyond the deadline.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports wasn't buying what the organization was selling a few weeks ago, though.
"(GM John) Coppolella is such a frenetic trader, I'll believe Teheran will remain in Atlanta past the non-waiver deadline when I see him in a Braves uniform on Aug. 1."
The front office's recent history of pulling off major trades and the potential for a huge offer in such a thin market for pitchers means there's at least a chance he's playing elsewhere down the stretch.
The 25-year-old is owed $25.3 million over the next three years with a $12 million option for 2020, and he's back to pitching at a front-line level after a disappointing 4.04 ERA a year ago.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. WAR totals current through Wednesday, June 29 and all other stats current through Thursday, June 30.
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