Wimbledon 2016: Bold Predictions at the All-England Club
Wimbledon 2016 will showcase superstars like Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Serena Williams, and there will be plenty of intriguing plot twists. Many of these will revolve around upsets during the first week of play, but there will be unforeseen stories that elbow their way to the front of the line.
Making predictions comes with tangled possibilities. The fun part is anticipating when and how things will develop. Nobody wins Wimbledon the first week, but 112 of 128 players in each of the men's and women's draws will be eliminated after the first three rounds.
For the superstars, it’s survive and move on with as little damage as possible. “Bold Predictions” might have a few zany thoughts, but just wait until the draw gets rocked.
No Worries About Roger Federer
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With all the doubts about Roger Federer’s injuries, aging and failure to compete at full strength since the Australian Open, it would seem the Swiss Maestro is ripe for an upset. He missed huge tournaments like Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and the French Open, and he has not been able to string together a complete week of great tennis.
Except that Federer is not going to exit against a cupcake lineup that first week. He’s often come back quickly from occasional absences, at least against the weaker players. The problems could occur in the second week, with residual fatigue from pushing himself in best-of-five matches. Then the competition will stiffen. Next week we will better evaluate how he is doing physically.
For now, the mighty Federer is safe, unless Alexandr Dolgopolov catches fire in the third round. Otherwise, book his reservation for the second week at Wimbledon.
Laura Robson Defeats Angelique Kerber
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Let’s go for the shocker. Laura Robson is only 22 years old, but it feels as if she’s been missing from tennis for half a lifetime after wrist problems. She’s made her way back and has adequate time to get in shape and play a few matches this spring. So forget about her ranking of No. 283 in the world.
We’re picking Robson to shock the world and defeat No. 4 Angelique Kerber in the first round.
The lefty Robson has an excellent game on grass, where she likes the pace behind her strong serve and forehand. There’s really no pressure on her to swing away, especially up the line, and she’s got a lot of composure. She made it to the fourth round at Wimbledon 2013 as a teenager.
On the other side, Kerber has felt the weight of great expectations since her Australian Open title in January. She’s not going to feel free and easy as the British crown gets behind Robson and becomes part of the biggest upset of the first round.
Stan Wawrinka Will Not Survive the First Week of Wimbledon
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The top stars in the ATP usually hang on like the roots of a stubborn oak tree. In recent years at Wimbledon, it’s usually been Rafael Nadal providing the headlines for upset victims, but the Spanish star will not play as he recovers from a wrist injury.
This time, big-hitting Stan Wawrinka, seeded No. 4, will find it difficult to escape the first week. Grass is his weakest surface because it does not give him time to wind up his big strokes. Running into a big server can keep points short and prevent Wawrinka from finding the rhythm to keep his streaky shots in the court.
First crack goes to young American Taylor Fritz, who took one set off Roger Federer at their grass-court encounter at Stuttgart. He’s a long way away from being a star, if ever, but he has the kind of game reminiscent of a young Andy Roddick. Maybe one great match wins the day.
Or maybe Wawrinka runs into Juan Martin del Potro, who has a retro effort in the second round. The big Argentine has been coming back this year and has not forgot how to battle. Given that opportunity, he could be a big problem for Wawrinka.
It won’t be easy for Wawrinka, so he is tabbed as the most likely star to get ousted in the first week.
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Here Comes the Rain Again
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How about a spot of rain to ruin Wimbledon’s tight schedule? Sure, that makes sense after it marred the second week of the French Open and forced players to hammer away at several matches in consecutive days.
The rain could come on Tuesday afternoon, according to AccuWeather and most other projections. Digging deeper, there will be some players who could lose out by playing on consecutive days or finding lengthy delays. Remember that only Centre Court has the retractable roof, so even a little rain will leave courts slippery and unplayable if not covered quickly by the tarp teams.
Furthermore, the ball will be heavier and bounce lower, something that could thwart baseline players like Stan Wawrinka or even Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic, who prefer higher hops and consistent surfaces. A bit of deviant weather could add the kind of chaos that could help an underdog. It's not likely Murray or Djokovic will lose in the first week, but if they do, they might be able to blame it on the rain.
Bring your umbrella, but expect that there will be consequences in both the gentlemen’s and ladies' draws. Just don't count on the All-England Club bucking tradition and playing matches on "Intermission Sunday."
John McEnroe Soaks Up More Retro Attention
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Are you ready for more John McEnroe highlights? Brace yourself, because the American legend is now coaching Milos Raonic. The further McEnroe's protege goes, the more TV audiences will be fed clips of 1980-81 against Bjorn Borg or a pair of finals collisions against fellow legend Jimmy Connors in 1982 and '84. Maybe we get to see Mac rage in his 1981 first-round match, something about chalk flying up from the line.
McEnroe's timing to coach Milos Raonic will be balanced by his accustomed role to do TV commentary. It will be curious for tennis fans to see if he can help Raonic play more aggressive tennis at the net while giving his opinions about the other stars that Raonic is hoping to defeat.
What other kind of impact will this have? With McEnroe's big presence, Raonic will become a greater household name, especially if he improves in coming to the net behind his serve that can top 140 mph. More importantly, Raonic and McEnroe will be linked if the big Canadian wins and challenges for the title late in the second week.
McEnroe might also take some of the pressure off his star pupil, according to Gerald Marzorati of the New Yorker: "Mac might also help him unwind a bit, as Raonic himself has mentioned; they apparently like to talk about their shared interest in contemporary art."
At the very least, Raonic's matches might be more interesting if things go bad, and who knows what McEnroe comments will stand out when he takes off his coaching cape for his mild-mannered desk job?
Half of the WTA Seeds Will Fall in the First Week
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It’s been a tough 2016 for the top players in women's tennis. Collectively, there have been a lot of injuries and upsets that have ravaged important tournaments. Expect this to continue the first week at Wimbledon.
We could see half of the seeds gone by week one, and we will go ahead and predict that five of the top 10 seeds will be dismissed before the second week rolls around.
The most likely top-10 seeds to pick up an early check? How about these five?
- No. 4 Angelique Kerber is a defensive-minded player trying to win on offensive courts. She does not manufacture easy points, and an off day against a lesser opponent could be the end.
- No. 5 Simona Halep hustles and plays hard, but she has not shown the same level of consistency as in 2014-15. She had an Achilles problem and had to skip key grass-court preparations at Birmingham.
- No. 6 Roberta Vinci can volley and slice, but she lacks the power needed to get easy wins. Nobody's going to take her lightly after her immortal upset of Serena Williams at the 2015 U.S. Open semifinals.
- No. 7 Belinda Bencic has the reflexes to take balls early and redirect tough shots, but getting past third-round possible opponent Andrea Petkovic might be more difficult. She's a top-10-caliber player when rolling.
- No. 8 Venus Williams can be brilliant in stretches, but the aging American has struggled to consistently recover and keep bringing her best tennis for a few matches in a row. It will be a challenge to reach the second week.
We're not saying all of them will lose, but they are on the caution list. Maybe a few other top-10 players eat grass instead, but we will hold to five top-10 players checking out early.
The Croatian Clash of Wimbledon's Third Round Spills into Davis Cup
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OK, this is a long shot.
Suppose you’re a fan of American tennis and you’re aware that Croatia has won all three historic ties. They bring in superior singles players in Marin Cilic and Borna Coric. For some reason, captain Jim Courier wants a slow hard-court surface, something that might play more like clay, not exactly the ideal choice for ace-machine John Isner and hard-hitting Jack Sock, who don’t have strong baseline games.
Enter Wimbledon for our far-fetched assist in turning things the Americans’ way at the Davis Cup quarterfinals in Beaverton, Oregon, the following week.
Suppose Cilic and Coric meet for their Wimbledon third-round possibility. The young gun Coric challenges the sleepy giant Cilic, and it grows angry and heated. A rift develops between the two stars, which spills over into the locker room and media. It destroys Team Croatia's chemistry for Davis Cup.
Courier’s U.S. squad sweeps the Croatians, who were triggered by the first-week Wimbledon clash.
Yes, it’s not very likely, but it’s certainly a bold prediction that has better than a 100-1 chance.
Men's Players Who Are in Trouble
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There are usually fewer early top upsets on the men’s tour, but there are always unforeseen losses. This time we identify a pool of players who could be in a lot of trouble.
Nick Kyrgios drew a legion of savvy and talented grass-court players just to get out of the first week. It will not be easy to defeat serve-and-volley veteran Radek Stepanek, Dustin Brown or Feliciano Lopez. Was this some kind of retribution from the Davis Cup gods?
Richard Gasquet might want to watch out for “New Brit” Aljaz Bedene. Beware his strong forehand and grass-court capabilities. He will have the home crowd behind him, and, per the Daily Mail, he’s publicly emphasized that Wimbledon will mean a lot to him this week. First-round upset brewing?
Bernard Tomic upset by Fernando Verdasco? To most, this would not be an upset at all.
Kei Nishikori might not be at his physical best after pulling out of Halle. Now he’s got big-serving Sam Groth in the first round.
Speaking of ailing, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga pulled out of the Queen’s Club tournament, so we will see if he is able to make a memorable Wimbledon run.
Trouble for Grigor Dimitrov no matter who he plays. Hard to believe the talented Bulgarian is now two years removed from a Wimbledon semifinal.
There's also trouble for anyone who plays Novak Djokovic. They can book airline tickets for the day they are scheduled to play the world No. 1. Bank on it.
Serena Williams vs. Garbine Muguruza Will Get Early Hype in Week One
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While other seeds drop like flies, No. 1 Serena Williams and No. 2 Garbine Muguruza will crush their competition in the first week. This will be good for the women’s tour as talks of their mini-rivalry heat up for the most likely showdown in the final.
Serena vs. Muguruza is a much better prospect than Serena vs. whoever survives a lot of upsets. Tennis fans like to get behind strong superstars, and there will be high interest as Serena tries to tie Steffi Graf’s Open-era record of 22 major titles.
Meanwhile, Muguruza tries to avenge last year’s Wimbledon loss to Serena in the final, capture the French Open-Wimbledon (Channel Slam) combination and seize control as the best player in tennis. She’s perhaps the young superstar tennis fans have been looking for on both the men’s and women’s tour, and some super hype in the first week could only help the WTA.
See, it's already started.
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