Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 12 Buzz, Rumors
Attention big league shoppers: You have four weeks left to find the piece—or pieces—you need for the stretch run. That might seem like a long time, but it's not. The Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline will be here before you know it.
As a result, the rumor mill has been buzzing. It's not spinning as fast as an Aroldis Chapman fastball, but it's certainly moving faster than what passes for a heater from Jered Weaver these days.
Is a forgotten-about veteran starter on more than one contender's radar? Could a pair of currently employed veteran sluggers become free agents before the season ends? Have general managers learned from the past mistakes one of their counterparts has made?
We'll hit on all that and more in this week's pitching-heavy round of fact or fiction.
Fact: Julio Urias Will Stay in the Dodgers Rotation Longer Than Expected
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With Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu on rehab assignments, reinforcements for a depleted Los Angeles Dodgers rotation are on the way, barring any setbacks. But ace Clayton Kershaw is dealing with lower-back issues, and it's unknown whether he'll miss any time or wind up on the disabled list.
Caught in the middle of all this is the team's prized pitching prospect, 19-year-old Julio Urias. While he hasn't been Kershaw-esque in his first taste of the big leagues, Urias has done enough to prove his value to Dodgers manager Dave Roberts.
“We need him right now," Roberts told the Los Angeles Times' Zach Helfand last week. "These are valuable starts for our club, and so it makes sense for him to be here as long as he can be.”
Urias, who between the majors and minors has tossed a combined 74 innings in 2016, is quickly closing in on the 80.1 frames he threw last year, a career high. While he's operated on a pitch limit, and despite Roberts' stance, Helfand notes that the team still planned to rest him in the not-so-distant future.
That was until Tuesday, when the Times' Andy McCullough tweeted that the team might be in agreement with Roberts: "Sounds like [the] Dodgers are reconsidering Julio Urias' mid-summer shutdown. With so many [starting pitchers] on the mend, they may ride him as long as they can."
Urias is too important to the team's future for the Dodgers to throw caution to the wind and overwork his developing arm.
But until their injured starters are ready to go—or until they swing a trade for another arm (Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal hears that they have talked to Tampa Bay about Erasmo Ramirez)—the Dodgers simply don't have a better option.
For Los Angeles, getting to October is more important than having Urias available in October.
Fiction: Atlanta Will Get a "Ken Giles-Type Return" for Arodys Vizcaino
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Is there anyone outside of Philadelphia who truly believes that, if given the keys to a time machine, Houston would make the Ken Giles trade again?
Giles, if you recall, was traded from the Phillies to the Astros this past December along with shortstop prospect Jonathan Arauz in exchange for five pitchers, including former top overall draft pick Mark Appel and Vince Velasquez.
According to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball, that's the kind of return Atlanta wants for 25-year-old Arodys Vizcaino.
Vizcaino has been terrific for the Braves, pitching to a 1.88 ERA and 1.25 WHIP since the start of the 2015 season, striking out 83 batters over 67 innings of work. He's also converted 19-of-22 save opportunities, including 10 out of 12 this season, and he's controllable, with two years of arbitration remaining.
While Giles has improved after an absolutely dreadful start to the season, he hasn't been the dominant late-inning option the Astros thought they were getting—certainly not one worth the price they paid.
With the strong possibility that more experienced options will be available, a list that includes Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon and Andrew Miller, it would take a desperate contender to offer the Braves anywhere near the package they reportedly seek.
Speaking of Chapman and Miller...
Fact: The Yankees Will Hold a "Two-Tiered Auction" for Their Relievers
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Executives around the game tell ESPN's Buster Olney that they expect the New York Yankees to trade both Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller before the Aug. 1 trade deadline arrives, auctioning the relievers off to the highest bidder.
As Olney notes, Miller, who is due $9 million a year through the 2018 season, is a more valuable trade chip for the Yankees to play than Chapman, who can become a free agent after the season.
"One evaluator with knowledge of the Yankees' interest fully expects that the team will tell the Cubs that if they want Miller, they will have to part with young hitter Kyle Schwarber— and if the Cubs say no, the Yankees can simply move on to conversations with other contenders who are interested in the left-hander. ...
If contenders don't want to meet that high demand for Miller, they can move on to the less expensive option of Chapman, who is a free agent at season's end and is setting himself up well for a payday.
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But don't take that to mean the Yankees are going to give Chapman away. Less expensive doesn't always equal cheap, especially in this case. The Yankees know there's not a contender around that wouldn't love to add one—or both—of the relievers they're offering for the stretch run (and in Miller's case, beyond).
As in any high-end auction, the Yankees will set an internal reserve price—the minimum that they're willing to accept in return—and let a bidding war ensue that's sure to surpass that reserve.
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Fiction: The Yankees Will Buy Out Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira
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Would the Yankees cut Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira? With the team struggling to remain relevant, it's a question Joel Sherman of the New York Post recently pondered.
"This would be no easy decision. A-Rod and Teixeira helped the 2009 Yanks win a title and have had brilliant careers — albeit in Rodriguez’s case tainted by PEDs. Then there is the money. Teixeira (at $22.5 million) is in the final year of his contract. Rodriguez is being paid $20 million this year and next. From this point forward, the Yanks owe the duo approximately $45.4 million.
But the Rockies ate about $39 million through next year to cut Jose Reyes, and the Dodgers did the same with Carl Crawford, owing about $35 million. Both teams acted for what was best now and in the future.
If those clubs were willing to eat that much, would the Yankees?
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They wouldn't, and here's why.
Let's say that the Yankees decided to cut Teixeira, who would pass through waivers unclaimed and become a free agent. There are a number of contenders that would have interest in the veteran slugger on a minimum-salary deal, either as a first baseman or just an experienced bat off the bench.
A team like the New York Mets, with James Loney at first base and former Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long in the dugout, would make a lot of sense. Can you imagine the uproar if Teixeira were to sign with the Mets? It'd be even bigger if he suddenly got hot at the plate and helped them get into the playoffs.
While it might be less likely that a team would be willing to sign A-Rod, given his past issues and the potential distraction his arrival might cause, the possibility of him landing elsewhere can't be ruled out.
Cutting Rodriguez after the season is a distinct possibility for the Yankees. But that's a conversation they'll have in November, not June.
Fact: Kyle Lohse Could Wind Up in a Contender's Rotation
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No, you haven't traveled back in time or fallen through some inter-dimensional wormhole. And yes, we're talking about that Kyle Lohse, the 15-year veteran who has pitched to a 5.23 ERA and 1.32 WHIP over nine Triple-A starts for Texas and posted a 5.85 ERA and 1.46 WHIP for Milwaukee last year.
Lohse, who already saw his first chance to opt out of the minor league deal he signed with the Rangers pass, has another opt-out opportunity coming July 1. According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, that hasn't been lost on contenders in search of reinforcements for their respective rotations.
Given his age (37) and the wear-and-tear on his arm after a long career, nobody can reasonably expect Lohse to suddenly return to his 2011-2014 form, when he went a combined 54-30 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 126 starts for St. Louis and Milwaukee.
But could he provide better results than his recent performance indicates? Stranger things have happened. And for a contender that's short on trade chips—or unwilling to pay the hefty price teams are asking for the starting pitchers they're willing to sell—he'd be a low-risk, high-reward addition.
If he can eat some innings and keep a team in games, terrific. If not, a team can simply cut him loose, responsible for only a prorated portion of the minimum salary deal he signed.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through Wednesday's games. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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