Ranking the Top 10 Men's Players Heading into Wimbledon 2016
Will Andy Murray or Roger Federer dethrone Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon 2016? That’s the popular question among casual sports fans, but there is a lot more complexity with a deep field of ATP contenders hoping to break the Serb’s reign.
We present our Wimbledon preview of the top 10 players, which is different than the ATP rankings. This list considers the most likely contenders on Wimbledon’s grass surface, which favors players who win points with quick-strike weapons. It also considers what kinds of challenges they will face in their section of the Wimbledon bracket.
Established stars Kei Nishikori and Tomas Berdych missed the cut. The former continues to generate questions with nagging injuries. Despite his No. 6 ranking and a very good spring on clay, Nishikori will be hard-pressed to navigate more power players on grass.
Berdych’s drop from his perennial place in the top 10 has been more of a gradual decline. He’s still a very solid player but not the genuine contender he once was. His lone major final appearance was six years ago at Wimbledon.
Read on to debate the stars who have a shot to win the tennis tournament that defines tradition and immortalizes its heroes.
10. Richard Gasquet
1 of 10
The Frenchman began a career resurgence in driving to the 2015 Wimbledon semifinals. Along the way, he ambushed Nick Kyrgios and outlasted French Open champion Stan Wawrinka 11-9 in the fifth set. He could be seen on changeovers wrapping his racket handle with grip tape, one of the enduring scenes of the tournament. There’s been a spark to his belief and results ever since.
Like last year, Gasquet will need to take care of the early rounds and deal with more powerful opponents with his intelligent shot selection. Last year, he often turned silver into gold when he came in behind approach shots for important net finishes.
It’s hard to follow up one of his career-best performances, but a quarterfinals appearance would be an excellent encore—that is if he can survive first-round opponent Aljaz Bedene, who now has British support. It would only be a ripple of the task ahead if he finds that quarterfinals match against Andy Murray.
9. Stan Wawrinka
2 of 10
Despite being a two-time major winner, Stan Wawrinka has his most difficult time on the low-bouncing lawns at Wimbledon. The Swiss has less time to generate his impressive baseline power, and there are other big servers and aggressive players who can shorten points better on this surface.
Last year’s run to the quarterfinals was a bitter disappointment in losing to Richard Gasquet, but the journey would have ended against Novak Djokovic regardless.
Wawrinka has been downgraded to No. 9 here despite being the fourth-ranked player in the ATP rankings—taking into account the sidelined Rafael Nadal. It’s a tall order for him to play clean tennis on a fast surface that favors the players listed ahead of him in this countdown.
He also has one tough match after another, beginning with a big server in young American Taylor Fritz and subsequent possibilities in Juan Martin del Potro, Lucas Pouille and Dominic Thiem.
8. Jo Wilfried-Tsonga
3 of 10
It’s surprising that Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has not made it to at least a Wimbledon final after back-to-back semifinal showings in 2011 and 2012.
He has the big serve, power and athleticism to star on grass. There should have been more matches like his quarterfinal win against Roger Federer when he had the guts and stamina to outhit the Swiss legend and win sets three through five.
He’s also had more injuries the past few years and, by now, more or less accepts his occasional big success with heavier doses of disappointments. He's been criticized for not being as mentally tough as the bigger stars in his generation, but he's often played well despite his flaws.
Tsonga could definitely make a run to the quarterfinals if he takes care of John Isner and Richard Gasquet, and those matches could measure just how ready he is for a shot to take on Andy Murray on enemy soil.
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7. Marin Cilic
4 of 10
Could this be the second coming of the 2014 U.S. Open? There’s no question Marin Cilic has the talent to win a second major at Wimbledon, especially because his skills are great for grass. He can use his power to put away quick points, and there won’t be as many rallies to expose fairly average defense.
The past two years have seen Cilic arrive in the quarterfinals only to smack into the formidable wall known as Novak Djokovic. Still, Cilic is good enough to win that kind of match if he gets on a roll. He’s more capable than his No. 13 ranking.
His draw looks favorable for a very nice run to the quarterfinals. He should fend off players such as Ivo Karlovic and Kei Nishikori, at least if he is in tune with his best tennis. Then maybe an intriguing opportunity against Roger Federer. Who knows?
6. Milos Raonic
5 of 10
There figures to be a year or two in his career that Milos Raonic truly contends for the Wimbledon title. No, 2014 was a nice surprise to get to the semifinals, but of course he was no match for Roger Federer.
How about 2016? Raonic has the big booming serve and a puncher’s chance to overpower the biggest stars. With new coaching energy and advice from John McEnroe, Raonic will look to get to the net and finish points quicker. What if it actually works?
Raonic has also shown progress after his five-set semifinal loss to Andy Murray at the Australian Open. Since, he’s continued a pattern of deep tournament runs mixed in with nagging injuries. Can he stay healthy for two memorable weeks at Wimbledon?
Unless things go horribly wrong, Raonic should get through the likes of Jack Sock or David Goffin for his quarterfinal shot at Novak Djokovic. Then he gets the opportunities he will need to win as he looks to begin his career peak.
5. Nick Kyrgios
6 of 10
It seems like five years since Nick Kyrgios upset Rafael Nadal at the 2014 Wimbledon because he’s gone through more than his share of erratic results, troubled relationships with Team Australia and controversial moments during matches.
Through it all, the talented 21-year-old is the most likely prospect to one day be a Wimbledon king. He’s got the big serve, flashy forehand and athletic footwork. Maybe Raonic will be ranked higher on more lists for now, but if Kyrgios puts it all together, he’s more likely to defeat Murray or Djokovic.
Yet, Kyrgios' high ceiling will face several challenges from the minute he warms up in his first match. Serve-and-volley veteran Radek Stepanek has seen it all and is very capable of winning the first-round clash. If Kyrgios survives, he might play dangerous grass-courter Dustin Brown and a strong lefty in Feliciano Lopez in the third round. If all goes according to plan, it will be Murray in the fourth round.
It's almost too much to ask for Kyrgios to reach the quarterfinals this year, but he's still one of a handful of challengers who could pull it off and contend for the crown.
4. Dominic Thiem
7 of 10
Overrated? Dominic Thiem has earned a growing reputation on clay, but it’s hard to build a grass-court resume because the two-week prelude to Wimbledon is hardly a worthy sample to judge more than the handful of stars who choose to play.
For sure, Thiem was intent on becoming familiar with grass. And he has adapted his all-court power by shortening points through coming into net and mixing in his heavy groundstrokes. He defeated Federer on his way to the Mercedes Cup title and competed hard at Halle the following week.
Thiem is not just a rising player hoping to build on his French Open semifinal. He is bidding to become a star on the ATP tour. He is a hard worker who is learning to use his gifts the right way—that is to play with patience, grind and finish.
It’s hard to fully examine the DNA of a potential champion, but Thiem will get a first-round test against surprising Florian Mayer, who might still be gazing at the Halle trophy he won last week.
Beyond the first round, he seems destined to hook up in another dangerous match against Alexander Zverev or Berdych in the fourth round.
If Thiem keeps improving, he will be favored to defeat Wawrinka in the quarterfinals and possibly get a showdown against Murray in the semifinals. Then we would see if he could take on an entire nation with the mental toughness he will need if he is to become a major champion.
3. Roger Federer
8 of 10
It’s been so long since Federer has battled in a meaningful tournament at full strength—think back to summertime in Australia—that much of gauging the Swiss Maestro is speculation.
Yes, Federer has the championship legacy of seven Wimbledon titles and has battled Djokovic in the past two finals. But unless he plays somewhere near that level, his No. 3 seed is more of a time capsule.
Yet, there’s also a chance he cruises through the opening week, imposes Federer tennis, dodges Djokovic and holds up major trophy No. 18.
Be careful in evaluating Federer that first week, though. His draw is as soft as a pillow.
When he’s rolling, he makes the game look so easy. It’s just not accurate to extrapolate his results from one match to the next. What he needs are quick matches to conserve his legs, build his confidence and remind the field what Roger Federer tennis is all about.
Then he could be ready for the quarterfinals against a real threat like Cilic or Nishikori. Only then will we know if he is ready for the historic task of trying to upset Djokovic in the semifinals.
2. Andy Murray
9 of 10
The pressure has shifted back to Andy Murray.
While rival Novak Djokovic will come in free and easy for the first time in years after Roland Garros—now with a French Open title tacked onto his legacy—Murray has the restless eyes of the British natives and media to satisfy.
They must feel certain that rejoining with coach Ivan Lendl will be the answer to deliver Murray’s third career major and second Wimbledon title three years after he won his first.
Murray has always bounced back through all kinds of defeats against his bigger rivals, and it’s a given he will give nothing less than his fiercest tennis during the next two weeks.
He’s also in better form than Federer, has had greater experience than the younger players on this list and has far greater success than the veterans. He’s a worthy No. 2 seed.
But Murray is going to have to grind his way through a tough draw. Trouble could arise by the third round with dangerous Benoit Paire and especially in the fourth round against Kyrgios. He will need to be sharp with his returns and able to mix in his slice and variety to frustrate the tall Australian's powerful game.
Beyond that, there will be plenty of other top-10 contenders fighting for the chance to take on Murray in the later rounds. Murray can't afford to start the tournament with a pair of five-setters. He needs to be sharp from the get-go, which includes his second serve, net game and bigger forehand.
1. Novak Djokovic
10 of 10
There’s nothing more set in stone than declaring Novak Djokovic is the favorite to win the title. Until the Earth splits or cars don't need to run on fuel, Djokovic is expected to win wherever and whenever he plays.
He might even be more relaxed and oblivious to pressure now that he has won the French Open and holds all four major titles. Could he become even more dominant when Murray, Federer, Thiem, Kyrgios and the rest all pose formidable challenges?
Maybe King Novak has not found his ceiling yet. He could dominate for another few years.
Or, Djokovic could suffer an upset to Raonic in the quarterfinals or to Federer in the semifinals. Suppose then it begins a decline. What if his Grand Slam window begins to close. He's going to win more majors, but all it takes is for another player to rise up and slow him down, even if it seems unlikely at this moment.
Until proved otherwise, all roads at London, New York—and everywhere there is a net—go through the Serb.
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