Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Week 12 Buzz, Rumors
If we've learned anything through nearly three months of the 2016 MLB regular season, it's that much of what we thought we knew in spring training was flat-out wrong.
Teams like Colorado, Milwaukee and Philadelphia haven't been nearly as bad as expected. Cincinnati's Jay Bruce, who was widely thought to have become a mediocre all-or-nothing slugger, has returned to the form that made him one of baseball's best run-producers only a few years ago.
On the flip side, we've seen preseason contenders look more like pretenders, big free-agent additions struggle in their new homes and some of last year's major award winners, who were expected to build on that success, take a step back.
There's no shortage of intriguing narratives to follow as baseball heads toward the All-Star break and, shortly thereafter, the nonwaiver trade deadline, which is indisputably one of the most exciting times of the season. But things outside anyone's control could find that excitement arriving earlier than expected.
Have injuries forced a first-place team to make a trade? Is a former All-Star about to return to the team with which he had the most success? Will a contender's disappointing season find them selling off valuable pieces before the trade deadline?
We'll hit on all of that and more in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.
Fact: Oakland Won't Trade Sonny Gray
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The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reports that Oakland's Sonny Gray draws "double-digit scouts from contenders" to each of his starts. Noting that the price for pitching is up, Jon Heyman recently wrote for Today's Knuckleball that the A's could get "75 cents on the dollar, or more" if they traded Gray.
All of that is true, and if Gray was heading for free agency after the season, selling low on their 26-year-old ace would make sense for the A's. But he's not—and it doesn't.
Gray (3-6, 5.20 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) is under team control through 2019 and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time after the season. The high prices Heyman alludes to in his piece might actually be higher in the offseason, when a thin free-agent market has all 30 teams—not just contenders—looking for an arm.
Gray's name will continue to pop up on the rumor mill until the Aug. 1 nonwaiver trade deadline arrives. Speculation about his immediate future isn't going away. But that's all it is—speculation.
Unless a team decides that its willing to pay full price for an elite starter having a down season—there's a better chance of Pedro Martinez coming out of retirement than that happening—Gray will be wearing green and gold when the regular season comes to an end.
Fiction: Texas Has to Trade for Another Starting Pitcher
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As Texas general manager Jon Daniels told MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan, losing Colby Lewis for up to two months due to a strained lat muscle is a "kick in the gut."
With Lewis, Yu Darvish, A.J. Griffin and Derek Holland on the disabled list, speculation that the Rangers might trade for another starting pitcher is reasonable—except to the man calling the shots.
"We have confidence that someone will be able to step up and fill those roles," Daniels told MLB.com's Ryan Posner. "That's kind of been the nature of our season."
Griffin is expected to be activated Saturday, per Rangers vice president of communications John Blake, making his first start since May 7. Darvish, according to the Dallas Morning News' Gerry Fraley, is making progress in his return from a sore shoulder. While the Rangers are going to be cautious, his return might not be too far off.
The team also has options down on the farm, including former first-round pick Chi Chi Gonzalez and veteran Kyle Lohse, who Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweeted last week was under consideration to join the club as a reliever.
Considering how high the cost to acquire a quality starter from outside the organization will be—especially for the Rangers, a team that remains well-stocked with high-upside young talent even after last year's trade for Cole Hamels—staying in-house is the best option for now.
Fact: Jose Reyes Will Return to the New York Mets
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Colorado requested release waivers on Jose Reyes Thursday, per the Denver Post's Patrick Saunders, which means that New York Mets catcher Travis d'Arnaud should start thinking about what he'd like in exchange for the No. 7 on the back of his jersey. Because Reyes, who wore the number for eight years, is coming to reclaim it.
A source tells Howie Kussoy and Mike Puma of the New York Post that Reyes "desperately longs for a reunion with the team for which he played his first nine seasons. Jeff Wilpon, the team's chief operating officer (and son of owner Fred Wilpon) wants Reyes back and has gone so far to discuss the possibility with current members of the club, according to Christian Red of the New York Daily News.
It's a reunion that makes sense for both sides.
Suspended earlier this season by MLB for violating its domestic violence policy, Reyes would be returning to an organization and city he's familiar with. He'd also be returning to a fanbase that would likely be more forgiving of his alleged transgressions than others would be, based on his history with the team.
While Reyes would need some time to shake off some rust in the minors, his return could solve two issues for the Mets, who desperately need both a replacement for the injured David Wright and a better table-setter atop the lineup than Curtis Granderson.
The Mets could try Reyes out at third base, stick him at second base and shift Neil Walker to third base, or stick him at shortstop, pushing Asdrubal Cabrera to either second or third. He gives them options. And with the Rockies responsible for the more than $22 million remaining on his contract, the Mets can sign him for a prorated portion of the MLB minimum salary, $507,500.
That's far less expensive than swinging a trade for say, Oakland's Danny Valencia or Los Angeles' Yunel Escobar, two of the names that have been bandied about as potential replacements for David Wright at the hot corner.
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Fiction: Pittsburgh Is Going to Hold a Fire Sale
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Five games under .500 (34-39), 14 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central and five games out of a wild-card spot, Pittsburgh's season hasn't gone as anyone planned. As a result, other teams are circling like vultures, waiting for the Pirates to give up on the season—and sell off some of their assets.
Speculation has revolved around three players in particular—Gerrit Cole, Francisco Liriano and Andrew McCutchen. And there's a case to be made for the Pirates to part ways with each one. But those are arguments that GM Neal Huntington isn't interested in hearing.
"Our focus remains to play good baseball," he told MLB.com's Jon Morosi, "and put ourselves in a position to make the postseason." That certainly doesn't sound like a man who is ready to lay down and let the vultures pick the carcass of his team clean.
Both Liriano (4-7, 5.17 ERA, 1.63) and McCutchen (.238 BA, .716 OPS) are having lousy years, while Cole (5-4, 2.77 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) hasn't been quite as sharp as he's been in the past. As is the case in Oakland with Sonny Gray, Pittsburgh has no reason to sell low on controllable assets.
Should the Pirates continue to flounder and miss out on the playoffs, they can revisit the idea of trading away pieces after the season.
Fact: Yulieski Gourriel Isn't Going to Make an Immediate Impact
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Sooner, rather than later, 32-year-old Yulieski Gourriel is going to sign with a major league team.
The 32-year-old, a free agent who is considered the best Cuban-born player of his generation, has already worked out for the Los Angeles Dodgers, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group, and, according to ESPN.com's Adam Rubin, has another workout scheduled with the New York Mets.
But as Mets GM Sandy Alderson told Rubin, expectations about Gourriel's immediate impact should be tempered: "We're going to do our due diligence on [him]. So we've made arrangements to do that. At the same time, this player hasn't seen live pitching for weeks if not months. It's not clear how long a player in that situation would take to be ready."
Aside from the Dodgers and Mets, Houston is also believed to have interest, though Astros GM Jeff Luhnow wouldn't reveal to Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle whether the team planned to work him out.
Regardless of where Gourriel ultimately signs, the team and its fanbase should expect that he'll need at least a week or two of minor league action to shake off the rust and round into form before trying his luck against big league pitching.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs and are current through Thursday's games. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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