Stock Up, Stock Down on MLB's Top 2016 Trade Targets
As we enter the final week of June, the MLB trade market is starting to heat up as teams continue to work toward establishing themselves as buyers or sellers.
After a number of front-line arms were on the move last summer, there is a notable lack of starting pitching talent on the block this year. Unless the Atlanta Braves wind up moving Julio Teheran, contenders will have to settle for middle-of-the-rotation help at best.
On the offensive side of things, National League Central bats Jay Bruce, Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy are among the headliners, and the San Diego Padres have a number of intriguing trade chips.
Ahead, we take a look at what direction the stock for 10 notable trade targets is trending.
The focus is on players who are expected to be aggressively shopped in July. We kick things off with a list of players who are not yet clear-cut trade bait, a few guys who could be moved but are on the disabled list and some honorable mentions before highlighting the top 10 trade chips.
Not Yet Included Due to Questions About Availability
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The following players are not yet included on this list due to questions about whether they will be made available:
- RF Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees
- RP Dellin Betances, New York Yankees
- RP Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
- RP Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
- RP Jeanmar Gomez, Philadelphia Phillies
- RF Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies
- RP Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers
- RP Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
- 1B Wil Myers, San Diego Padres
- SS Eduardo Nunez, Minnesota Twins
- SP Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
- 3B Trevor Plouffe, Minnesota Twins
- SP Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres
- RP Will Smith, Milwaukee Brewers
- RP Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
- SS Jonathan Villar, Milwaukee Brewers
Stock Down Due to Injury
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The following potential trade chips are on the disabled list, so their trade values are obviously down as a result of their injuries and missed time:
- SP Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres (neck strain, June 11)
- SP Rich Hill, Oakland Athletics (groin strain, May 30)
- RP Jake McGee, Colorado Rockies (left MCL sprain, June 11)
- RF Josh Reddick, Oakland Athletics (left thumb fracture, May 20)
- SP Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres (shoulder inflammation, April 5)
- RP Joe Smith, Los Angeles Angels (left hamstring strain, June 5)
Others of Note (Hitters)
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SS Zack Cozart, Cincinnati Reds (Stock: Up)
For teams looking to upgrade at the shortstop position, Zack Cozart looks to be the best option on the market, but he won't come cheap.
He's hitting .282/.324/.506 on the year with 19 doubles and 11 home runs, and coupled with his terrific defense (8 DRS, 14.0 UZR/150), he's been a 2.3 WAR player.
3B Yunel Escobar, Los Angeles Angels (Stock: Even)
The Angels don't have much in the way of valuable position-player trade chips, assuming Kole Calhoun and Mike Trout won't be going anywhere.
That said, Yunel Escobar would be a nice addition to a contender looking to upgrade at second or third base. He's hitting .310/.359/.409 on the year, and that includes a respectable .321 average and .748 OPS in June.
IF Jed Lowrie, Oakland Athletics (Stock: Down)
Jed Lowrie was hitting .309/.351/.360 heading into June, but he's slumped a bit this month with a .250 average and .636 OPS.
The fact he's not a rental player works against him in this situation, as he's owed $6.5 million in 2017 and has a $6 million option with a $1 million buyout for 2018. That could be a bigger commitment than teams would be willing to make to the 32-year-old.
RF Nick Markakis, Atlanta Braves (Stock: Down)
The Atlanta Braves will likely have to eat a good deal of the roughly $16.5 million still owed to Nick Markakis to trade him, and even then interest figures to be limited.
Strong on-base numbers had been his one redeeming quality on the offensive side of things, but those have disappeared this month, as he has a .259/.307/.346 line in June.
C Derek Norris, San Diego Padres (Stock: Up)
Derek Norris was one of the best offensive catchers in baseball the past few seasons, and he posted a .709 OPS with 33 doubles, 14 home runs and 62 RBI in his debut with the Padres last season.
He's batting just .215/.266/.402 on the year with 10 doubles, 10 home runs and 25 RBI, but he's hit his stride this month with a .302/.333/.571 line and seven extra-base hits in 69 plate appearances.
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Others of Note (Pitchers)
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RP Fernando Abad, Minnesota Twins (Stock: Down)
Signed to a minor league pact in the offseason, Fernando Abad played his way onto the Opening Day roster on a one-year, $1.25 million contract that has proved to be a steal.
He has a 2.16 ERA, 1.080 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings in 30 appearances this season, but he's struggled a bit of late with three hits, three walks, four earned runs allowed and a blown save in 4.1 innings over his last four appearances.
SP Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers (Stock: Up)
Matt Garza missed the first 64 games of the 2016 season dealing with a back injury, but he's returned to the Milwaukee Brewers rotation with a bang.
In two starts since being activated from the disabled list, he's allowed just one earned run in 10 innings of work. In his last outing, he threw six shutout innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He's owed what's left of a $12.5 million salary this year and another $12.5 million next year, but in a thin market for starting pitching, he's a viable trade chip if the Brewers eat some of that money.
RP David Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies (Stock: Down)
David Hernandez missed the 2014 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and returned last season with a 4.28 ERA, 1.307 WHIP and 8.8 K/9 over 40 appearances.
The 31-year-old has a 4.41 ERA, 1.442 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 with 11 holds in 34 games on the year, but he's been hit hard of late. He's allowed 12 hits, three walks and nine earned runs in 4.1 innings over his last four appearances, giving up at least one run in each of those games.
SP Ricky Nolasco, Minnesota Twins (Stock: Up)
The four-year, $49 million deal the Twins gave Ricky Nolasco has been nothing short of a disaster to this point, but he's finally healthy and could generate some interest if the team is willing to absorb a good chunk of the roughly $18 million left on his contract.
Nolasco is 3-5 with a 4.95 ERA on the year, but his 3.69 FIP paints a more positive picture, and his ratio of 1.8 walks per nine innings speaks to his plus command. He also has some experience as a deadline acquisition for a contender, as he went 8-3 with a 3.52 ERA in 15 starts with the Dodgers down the stretch in 2013.
RP Fernando Salas, Los Angeles Angels (Stock: Down)
Since the start of the 2014 season, Fernando Salas has a 3.84 ERA, 1.112 WHIP and 9.3 K/9 in 161 appearances. He's been a reliable setup arm ahead of Huston Street in the Angels bullpen.
The 31-year-old is a free agent at season's end, and his lengthy track record of success will have more than a few teams interested. However, he's trending down in June with eight hits, three walks and seven earned runs allowed in 6.2 innings over eight appearances.
Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers
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2016 Stats
| April | 88 | .333/.409/.577 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 12 |
| May | 86 | .364/.420/.584 | 28 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 11 |
| June | 80 | .263/.288/.447 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Total | 254 | .320/.378/.537 | 74 | 14 | 12 | 38 | 30 |
Stock: Down
Two years ago, Ryan Braun hit .266 with a career-low .777 OPS in his return from a performance-enhancing-drug suspension, and it looked like his days as an impact slugger were a thing of the past.
Not so fast.
After finishing last season with an .854 OPS, 25 home runs and 84 RBI, he's been even better this year. The Milwaukee Brewers' standing as a rebuilding club has made him one of the league's most talked-about trade candidates.
The issue with trading Braun is money.
The 32-year-old signed a five-year, $105 million extension at the start of the 2011 season that just kicked in this year, so anyone trading for him will be committing to him through the 2020 season.
A dip in production so far this month hasn't helped his odds of being traded, but for a team needing an impact bat in the middle of the lineup, Braun could be that missing piece.
Jay Bruce, RF, Cincinnati Reds
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2016 Stats
| April | 83 | .253/.313/.480 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 9 |
| May | 106 | .286/.330/.602 | 28 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 19 |
| June | 86 | .300/.349/.663 | 24 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 15 |
| Total | 275 | .281/.331/.585 | 71 | 17 | 16 | 55 | 43 |
Stock: Up
From his rookie year in 2008 through the 2013 season, Jay Bruce posted an .812 OPS and ranked 15th in the majors with 164 home runs, as he was one of the most dangerous sluggers in the National League.
His production dipped considerably during the 2014 and 2015 seasons, though.
The 29-year-old hit .222/.288/.406 for a 90 OPS+ during that span, and his trade value took a significant hit as a result, leaving him as one of the few movable veteran pieces on a rebuilding Cincinnati Reds team.
He was nearly traded to the Toronto Blue Jays during the offseason in a three-team deal, but he wound up staying put, and his stock has skyrocketed since Opening Day.
He ranks third in the National League with a .585 slugging percentage, and his numbers have steadily climbed as the 2016 season has progressed.
Bruce is owed the remainder of his $12.5 million salary this season and carries a $13 million team option with a $1 million buyout for next year.
That gives any team acquiring him some flexibility as far as whether he's a part of its 2017 plans, and if he can maintain anywhere near his current level of production, picking up that $13 million option will be a no-brainer.
Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Philadelphia Phillies
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2016 Stats
| April | 5/5 | 2-1 | 3.81 | 1.192 | 6 | 28 | 26.0 | .245 |
| May | 6/6 | 2-2 | 3.58 | 1.115 | 8 | 37 | 37.2 | .243 |
| June | 4/4 | 0-3 | 6.38 | 1.500 | 9 | 16 | 24.0 | .300 |
| Total | 15/15 | 4-6 | 4.41 | 1.243 | 23 | 81 | 87.2 | .259 |
Stock: Down
The Philadelphia Phillies acquired both Charlie Morton and Jeremy Hellickson during the offseason, as they looked to add a veteran presence to their young starting rotation and perhaps a pair of trade chips if that duo pitched well.
Morton suffered a torn hamstring in April that will sideline him the remainder of the season, but Hellickson had been a pleasant surprise until running into some trouble his last few times out.
After winning American League Rookie of the Year honors in 2011, Hellickson was never able to duplicate his terrific debut during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays and in his lone season with the Arizona Diamondbacks.
However, as a 29-year-old in the final year of his contract, he was worth rolling the dice on as a buy-low target who was capable of significantly boosting his value.
Hellickson was 4-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 65 strikeouts in 63.2 innings heading into June, but he's managed just one quality start in four outings so far this month, and his ERA has climbed nearly a full run in the process.
He threw seven strong innings his last time out against the Diamondbacks, allowing six hits and three earned runs, but he was hit with his third consecutive loss.
There will be a market for him at the deadline, but how well he pitches in his next few starts will determine how much the Phillies can get in exchange.
Jon Jay, CF, San Diego Padres
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2016 Stats
| April | 105 | .271/.333/.323 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 10 |
| May | 108 | .277/.324/.446 | 28 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 11 |
| June | 77 | .356/.390/.466 | 26 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| Total | 290 | .296/.345/.407 | 80 | 24 | 2 | 23 | 35 |
Stock: Up
Jon Jay saw his playing time take a significant hit in 2015 with the emergence of Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, so it wasn't much of a surprise when the St. Louis Cardinals shipped him to the San Diego Padres in exchange for Jedd Gyorko during the offseason.
The 31-year-old was never a star during his time with the Cardinals, but he was a steady producer. He averaged 485 plate appearances per season from 2010 through 2014 and hit .295/.359/.396 during that span.
Those triple-slash numbers dipped to .210/.306/.257 in 245 plate appearances last season, but he's gotten things back on track in San Diego now that he's once again seeing everyday playing time.
Jay leads the National League with 24 doubles, and in a market that could feature Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Bruce and Markakis, who are all under contract beyond this season, he might be the most attractive rental option among outfielders.
He's taken his game to another level this month with a .390 on-base percentage and an .855 OPS, and the remainder of his $6.85 million contract shouldn't be a hindrance to a contender looking to add a quality bat.
Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers
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2016 Stats
| April | 85 | .299/.365/.377 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| May | 112 | .300/.348/.650 | 30 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 17 |
| June | 73 | .318/.384/.455 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Total | 270 | .305/.363/.510 | 74 | 14 | 10 | 35 | 36 |
Stock: Even
Jonathan Lucroy led all National League position players with a 6.7 WAR during the 2014 season.
Lucroy finished that season with a .301/.373/.465 line that included 53 doubles, 13 home runs and 69 RBI. He finished fourth in MVP voting and was named to the All-Star team for the first time in his career.
His production fell off dramatically last season, though, as he battled a broken toe and concussion issues to hit .264/.326/.391 in 103 games.
Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported the rebuilding Brewers listened to offers for the 30-year-old during the offseason, but they wisely opted against selling low on him and instead hoped he could rebuild some value with a bounce-back performance.
With a .305/.363/.510 line, he's done just that. Given his reasonable salary this season ($4 million) and reasonable team option for next year ($5.25 million), he may be the most valuable position-player trade chip.
His power outburst during May could prove to be an aberration, but he's continued to hit for a terrific average while serving as an above-average defensive catcher to boot.
Bud Norris, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats
| April | 5/5 | 1-4 | 8.74 | 1.985 | 11 | 17 | 22.2 | .340 |
| May | 11/0 | 0-2 | 2.08 | 1.269 | 9 | 14 | 17.1 | .228 |
| June | 5/4 | 1-1 | 2.70 | 1.072 | 8 | 21 | 23.1 | .202 |
| Total | 21/9 | 2-7 | 4.69 | 1.453 | 28 | 52 | 63.1 | .266 |
Stock: Up
The start of the 2016 season was nothing short of a disaster for veteran right-hander Bud Norris.
Signed to a one-year, $2.5 million deal by the Braves to eat some innings as they continued on with their rebuilding process, he instead struggled to an 8.74 ERA over his first five starts before being demoted to the bullpen at the start of May.
On almost any other team, he likely would have been released, but the Braves gave him a chance to sort things out as a reliever.
He went on to post a 1.96 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 12 appearances out of the bullpen spanning 18.1 innings, and that earned him a second chance in the rotation.
In four starts since returning to a starting role, he's gone 1-1 with a 2.82 ERA, 1.120 WHIP and 21 strikeouts in 22.1 innings.
That return to relevance has attracted the attention of several teams, including the Miami Marlins, according to Jon Heyman of Today's Knuckleball.
He may not be the most exciting name on the market, but for teams looking to improve the back end of the rotation in a weak pitching market, he's an intriguing low-cost solution.
Fernando Rodney, RP, San Diego Padres
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2016 Stats
| April | 8 | 4/4 | 0.00 | 1.200 | 4 | 8 | 8.1 | .207 |
| May | 11 | 6/6 | 0.00 | 0.656 | 5 | 9 | 10.2 | .063 |
| June | 8 | 6/6 | 1.04 | 0.923 | 3 | 14 | 8.2 | .161 |
| Total | 27 | 16/16 | 0.33 | 0.904 | 12 | 31 | 27.2 | .141 |
Stock: Even
Fernando Rodney struggled to the tune of a 5.68 ERA and blew six saves in 22 chances with the Seattle Mariners last season before being shipped to the Chicago Cubs on Aug. 27.
That change of scenery proved to be exactly what he needed, as he pitched to a 0.75 ERA and 11.3 K/9 in 14 appearances after joining the Cubs.
That was enough for him to land a one-year, $2 million deal that includes a $2 million option for 2017 from the Padres, and he's been brilliant in the closer's role once again.
The 39-year-old has nailed down all 16 of his save chances, and he opened the year without allowing an earned run in his first 26.1 innings before giving up one Tuesday. He still picked up the save in that appearance, and he has a pristine 0.33 ERA and a .141 opponent's batting average on the year.
Rodney can still bring it with an average fastball velocity of 94.3 mph, and his changeup remains a plus secondary offering. As long as there's no drop-off in terms of his stuff, he can maintain his hot start.
Contenders always need bullpen help, and Rodney has been through the wringer. He won't be overwhelmed by stepping into a pennant race once again.
Julio Teheran, SP, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats
| April | 5/5 | 0-3 | 4.60 | 1.364 | 11 | 25 | 29.1 | .250 |
| May | 6/6 | 1-2 | 1.38 | 0.846 | 9 | 37 | 39.0 | .174 |
| June | 4/4 | 2-2 | 2.43 | 0.539 | 4 | 30 | 29.2 | .120 |
| Total | 15/15 | 3-7 | 2.66 | 0.908 | 24 | 92 | 98.0 | .184 |
Stock: Even
On the surface, it doesn't sound like the Braves are interested in trading Julio Teheran.
"The days of us trading players like Teheran for prospects are over. We need to get better at the major league level. We would have to be overwhelmed to move Teheran," general manager John Coppolella told Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports in May.
However, that hasn't stopped Teheran from being one of the most popular names on the rumor mill, and Rosenthal is not yet sold on him staying put.
"Coppolella is such a frenetic trader, I'll believe Teheran will remain in Atlanta past the non-waiver deadline when I see him in a Braves uniform on Aug. 1," Rosenthal wrote earlier this week.
Teheran has returned to ace form after a disappointing 2015 season in which his ERA climbed to 4.04 and his secondary numbers followed suit, and he's the lone front-line arm expected to be legitimately available this summer.
The 25-year-old is owed $25.3 million over the next three years with a $12 million option for 2020, giving him one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball.
Already having a great season, he was absolutely dominant his last time out when he threw a one-hit shutout against the New York Mets for his third career shutout.
It's going to take a king's ransom to pry Teheran away from the Braves, and if they don't get an offer to their liking, they can keep him to be a long-term building block.
Danny Valencia, 3B, Oakland Athletics
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2016 Stats
| April | 55 | .294/.345/.353 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| May | 83 | .359/.386/.692 | 28 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 18 |
| June | 70 | .317/.386/.492 | 20 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| Overall | 208 | .328/.375/.536 | 63 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 |
Stock: Even
Despite a .296/.331/.506 line through 173 plate appearances with the Blue Jays last season, Danny Valencia was designated for assignment in August following a wave of additions by Toronto.
The Oakland Athletics jumped at the chance to add his bat for nothing more than a waiver claim, and he went on to hit .284/.356/.530 with 10 doubles, 11 home runs and 37 RBI in 47 games.
The 31-year-old has continued to rake this season. His .911 OPS ranks tied for 22nd among players with at least 200 plate appearances, and the fact that he's under team control through 2017 adds to his value.
Valencia is a poor defender at third base (-11 DRS, -26.9 UZR/150), so he might be best suited going to another American League team and serving as a designated hitter.
However, with little in the way of impact bats, there could be a National League team willing to look past his shortcomings in the field.
He's been a steady producer since joining the A's, so there's every reason to think he can maintain his current level of production.
The Mets are one team that has shown interest, according to Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Atlanta Braves
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2016 Stats
| April | 9 | 2/2 | 1.13 | 1.375 | 5 | 13 | 8.0 | .194 |
| May | 12 | 4/5 | 1.98 | 0.951 | 2 | 18 | 13.2 | .208 |
| June | 11 | 3/4 | 2.79 | 1.551 | 8 | 13 | 9.2 | .194 |
| Total | 32 | 9/11 | 2.01 | 1.245 | 15 | 44 | 31.1 | .200 |
Stock: Even
If the offseason trade that sent Ken Giles from the Phillies to the Houston Astros is any indication, the Braves can expect a handsome return if and when they move closer Arodys Vizcaino.
The Astros shipped a package of five young pitchers to the Phillies in exchange for Giles this winter due in large part to the fact Giles is under team control through the 2020 season.
Vizcaino has similar team control, as the 25-year-old won't reach free agency until after the 2019 season, and that makes him a valuable asset for the rebuilding Braves.
Since the start of last season, Vizcaino has posted a 1.80 ERA, 1.215 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 while saving 18 games in 21 chances.
His 97.5 mph average fastball velocity this season ranks sixth in the majors. His curveball has been a devastating out pitch, as opponents are batting just .154 against the pitch with 36 strikeouts, according to Brooks Baseball.
"Vizcaino is drawing intense interest, probably the most interest of any Braves player," Heyman wrote.
He's not been quite as dominant so far this month, but his stock remains high thanks to his electric stuff and multiple years of control.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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